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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #10,001
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:41am Jan 6, 2011 3:41am
Quoting aarangio
Hi ya Shiko....

James mainly goes on break outs of the PB's and more often than not says that BUOB and BEOB tend to have a 50% return into the bar before taking off....

I'm in the J16PF however I am in another course and he says you could get a 50% return into a PB before you take it..personally I don't like that idea as I don't seem to get these returns as said..also I've taken a fair few PB's before the break and had my money taken, so I prefer to take breaks of PB's now as they are more reliable....also if you flick through charts you start...


I think I will concentrate on only trading pairs and preferably majors. something like NZD/Chf or like just doe snot look good for me. PB seems look well on E/U and G/U, I will retest again.
  • #10,002
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:41am Jan 6, 2011 3:41am
Quoting shiko
I agree about that. cause it obviously would change results, but I wonder if risk with same size is too big.
that's why I am recommending a backtest of at least 10,000 trades, so you get a reasonable estimate of which risk is fine and what DD to expect.
  • #10,003
  • Edited 4:46am Jan 6, 2011 4:09am | Edited 4:46am
Hi, continuing on with my trend trading experiment 2011

i interpret the trend on 240 to be up, right now! ..........but will it last to 130.40?

any takers??
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  • #10,004
  • Jan 6, 2011 4:41am Jan 6, 2011 4:41am
i also have a buy here, which is now looking a bit crappy,
i want that latest lower high to be broken to get my confidence back, otherwise its tight stops
.............let's see
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  • #10,005
  • Jan 6, 2011 6:38am Jan 6, 2011 6:38am
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  • #10,006
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:55pm Jan 6, 2011 3:55pm
Quoting Custos
that's why I am recommending a backtest of at least 10,000 trades, so you get a reasonable estimate of which risk is fine and what DD to expect.

I am going to back test visually 2 years back again 2 pairs for now. E/U and G/U.
  • #10,007
  • Jan 6, 2011 4:26pm Jan 6, 2011 4:26pm
Quoting Jungles
i also have a buy here, which is now looking a bit crappy,
i want that latest lower high to be broken to get my confidence back, otherwise its tight stops
.............let's see

I would not short this pair yet despite overall down trend although as I see some No Brainer guys already did so
But 2 days ago there was similar shorting opportunity on this pair which would ended in disaster. I am going with flow now not against it.
Here is what i see:


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Price met resistance and retraced. Now we have PB formed with right eye which did not take PB low. PB itself formed from another support area which I also marked. Price formed triangle on 4H. I would not short it until I would see clear sign of price failure to break that resistance. Price gotta go somewhere. I think price is going for another attempt to break that resistance but unless there is certain set up on 4H or daily, I would pass it myself. also tomorrow a lot of news.

also on 4H you can see that all those right bars including PB are inside that big red bar formed from failure to break resistance.
  • #10,008
  • Jan 6, 2011 4:34pm Jan 6, 2011 4:34pm
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should have been up on live this week as well, but closed short Aud/Usd at -20 pips after it almost hit my stop. I got a feeling that it was going to hit my stop so decided to cut loss. It actually moved into slight profit on demo as I did not close it on demo. flat week on live. had eur/aud smaller per pip position cause stop was bigger. I risk 1% on live for now. up on pips but flat in balance this week. different positions sizes per pip....on demo same size per pip.
  • #10,009
  • Edited 5:02pm Jan 6, 2011 4:42pm | Edited 5:02pm
Quoting shiko
I would not short this pair yet despite overall down trend although as I see some No Brainer guys already did so
But 2 days ago there was similar shorting opportunity on this pair which would ended in disaster. I am going with flow now not against it.
Here is what i see:

[.
Hey Shiko,
Justed wanted to say that two two similar looking setups can have different outcomes becuase every trade have diffrent players, sentiment, volume behind it.
You need to trust your setup rules price reading skills, S/R and confluence to take the trade i.e. if it meets the rules/criteria then take the trade regardless of the outcome of previous trade. It seems like this is a psychological error becuase you appear to be basing your decision of taking a trade setup on the outcome of a previous trade.

If you havent already read 'Trading in the Zone' ...highly recommended.

Edit: in this case of GBPJPY the flow is upward i.e more room for upward movement. As the reaction down bar is not deep into the previous up bar to warrant a reversal, therefore i'll continue with my upward bias.

Cheers
  • #10,010
  • Jan 6, 2011 4:59pm Jan 6, 2011 4:59pm
Quoting MktScape
Hey Shiko,
Justed wanted to say that two two similar looking setups can have different outcomes becuase every trade have diffrent players, sentiment, volume behind it.
You need to trust your setup rules price reading skills, S/R and confluence to take the trade i.e. if it meets the rules/criteria then take the trade regardless of the outcome of previous trade. It seems like this is a psychological error becuase you appear to be basing your decision of taking a trade setup on the outcome of a previous trade.

If you havent already read 'Trading...
MktScape, I mentioned No Brainers set up 2 days ago. i do not longer trade No Brainers. It is not my set up, I just pointed that both set ups are according to No Brainer method. I am waiting for set up to go long actually.
  • #10,011
  • Jan 6, 2011 5:02pm Jan 6, 2011 5:02pm
also possible NM set up on 1H Gbp/Jpy

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  • #10,012
  • Jan 6, 2011 5:04pm Jan 6, 2011 5:04pm
Quoting shiko
MktScape, I mentioned No Brainers set up 2 days ago. i do not longer trade No Brainers. It is not my set up, I just pointed that both set ups are according to No Brainer method. I am waiting for set up to go long actually.
ok ... i see. So have you had a chance to read Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas?
  • #10,013
  • Jan 6, 2011 5:22pm Jan 6, 2011 5:22pm
Quoting MktScape
ok ... i see. So have you had a chance to read Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas?


yes, one of the first books. It is on my PC actually along with Reminiscences of stock operator, Caleb's and few others/.
  • #10,014
  • Jan 6, 2011 5:36pm Jan 6, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting MktScape
ok ... i see. So have you had a chance to read Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas?
this is the book you liked the most?
  • #10,015
  • Jan 6, 2011 5:57pm Jan 6, 2011 5:57pm
Quoting shiko
this is the book you liked the most?
Actually this is one of the books i liked most. i'll list a few here

1- Enhancing Trader Peformance
2- The Daily Trading Coach
3-The Mental Strategies of Top Traders The Psychological Determinants of Trading Success
4- Trading to Win THE PSYCHOLOGY OF MASTERING THE MARKETS

Jack Schwager - Market_Wizards & THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS is also a good read in learning how top trading approach markets and trading.
  • #10,016
  • Jan 6, 2011 6:09pm Jan 6, 2011 6:09pm
Quoting MktScape
Actually this is one of the books i liked most. i'll list a few here

1- Enhancing Trader Peformance
2- The Daily Trading Coach
3-The Mental Strategies of Top Traders The Psychological Determinants of Trading Success
4- Trading to Win THE PSYCHOLOGY OF MASTERING THE MARKETS

Jack Schwager - Market_Wizards & THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS is also a good read in learning how top trading approach markets and trading.

from above 5 I read only Schwager's both books.
  • #10,017
  • Edited 6:32pm Jan 6, 2011 6:11pm | Edited 6:32pm
Talking of trading psychology i am listing the top mistakes which eventually kill a trader's carrier. I am listing some of them here, i think its good to reiterate every now and then. You can add to it as well:

1) Not knowing what type of trader they are i.e short term, medium term, longer term, scalping ?

2) False Expectation - i.e. want to make 20% every month at all cost leading to taking wrong setups and pushing trades / over trading. Want too make too much too fast. Trying to eat the elephant in one bite.

3) Impatience - Feel like trading all the time and the urge to be in the market. Now waiting for their setups to form.

4) Lack of consistency i.e. keep switching systems and not sticking to their trading plan.

5) Not having a trading plan and trading + psychological journal

6) Not taking qualified setups

7) Over Leveraging

8) Thinking too much about the last trade

9) Lack of Risk, Money & trade Management. Moving of stops

10) Chasing Pirce i.e. if breakout has already occured then entering in it so as to not miss it ....not waiting for a pullback.

11) Too much complication and not being physically and psychologically fit and blaming the market.

12) Not Learning from past mistakes ... which can be only determined if a trader maintains a trading & psychological journal which can show them pattern of mistakes over time.

13) Not knowing their trading edge. Here edge is defined as having a system of price analysis and trade entries which will make them money in the long run.

14) Not being emotionally neutral when trading i.e. getting euphoric when winning and sad when loosing a trade i.e feeling like a looser.
  • #10,018
  • Jan 6, 2011 6:20pm Jan 6, 2011 6:20pm
Quoting MktScape
Talking of trading psychology i am listing the top mistakes which eventually kill a trader's carrier. I am listing some of them here, i think its good to reiterate every now and then. You can add to it as well:

1) Not knowing what type of trader they are i.e short term, medium term, longer term, scalping ?

2) False Expectation - i.e. want to make 20% every month at all cost leading to taking wrong setups

3) Impatience - Feel like trading all the time and the urge to be in the market

4) Lack of consistency i.e. keep switching systems.

5) Not...
good list.
psychology is 90% of success.
  • #10,019
  • Jan 6, 2011 6:35pm Jan 6, 2011 6:35pm
Quoting shiko
good list.
psychology is 90% of success.
Are you keeping a psychological journal as well?
  • #10,020
  • Jan 6, 2011 6:39pm Jan 6, 2011 6:39pm
Quoting MktScape
Are you keeping a psychological journal as well?


Oh Yeah! already more than a year old. and it is public , lol
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