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Nb 1.0 trend trade system

  • #381
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:15pm Jan 6, 2011 1:15pm
NB, i know what NB means in Chinese, hoho.

Glad to see that we are in the same trench in the forex battlefield--trend trader.

if you agree that a trend is the only way you'll count on and trust, could i share some humble thoughts?

1. a tiny portion of postion, may be set as breakeven, and let it run till you are shocked. for example, your trading 0.05 lot, but when exiting, only exit 0.04 lot, leave that 0.01 lot running for free.

2. your mptm setting is too conservative. see, if you set BE 3 pips @ 15 floating pips, then your cost for this trade is (using eurusd as an example): 2x2 = 4 pips (2pips for enter, 2 pips for exit). Ok, now, this is a trend system, and you paid such high commision (4 pips) only to get 3 pips back?

as to point 2 above, let's recall how long it took you to go from 15min to 1hour to 4hour in your previous systems? 2 years or so. now, you are trading a trend system, it is definitely more reasonable NOW to use higher TF and larger pips numbers.

I'm not elaborating statistics here due to my time restraint. however, you'll get the point. if you use BE lock 100 pips at floating 500 pips, the trading cost will be 4 pips / 100 pips = 4%. 4% is more negligible compared to current trading cost %.

now this 4% is already significant to some professionals, because many system has 55% vs 45% win ratio (already holy grail), that advantage will be almost killed by 4% or 5% trading cost.
.......don't even mention lock 3 pips at 15 floating.

we are definitely on the correct path though, it is really exciting to see that you take this direction.


Quoting nanningbob
We will come up with insights to trading when the markets are changing trends which appears they are doing. Amazing that so many are doing it at once though.
  • #382
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:55pm Jan 6, 2011 1:55pm
Great thread Bob.

Has anyone tried the exact same setup on 15mins??. If u do, at least for today, it was a winner on eu,gu,au...at least tested thse 3.

Even when pairs are in a range, the system still work fine...

I wish u all a great 2011.
  • #383
  • Edited 3:38pm Jan 6, 2011 3:14pm | Edited 3:38pm
Quoting charvo
NB, i know what NB means in Chinese, hoho.

Glad to see that we are in the same trench in the forex battlefield--trend trader.

if you agree that a trend is the only way you'll count on and trust, could i share some humble thoughts?

1. a tiny portion of postion, may be set as breakeven, and let it run till you are shocked....
Hi Charvo - an interesting post which started the cogs turning

I am not a statistician, and I am not posting to repudiate, but rather to learn. I'm fairly new to Forex (prior commodities, indexes and equities) and I struggled w/ the idea of spread costs for a while. My final take was that we really only pay one side, since we operate solely off the bid line on our charts. IOW, we pay up front to enter long, or we pay as we exit from a short. Now your numbers have me questioning this, and I would be interested to hear your understanding.

In regards to your trading costs percentage, does this not only apply in your example if all trades return the same average profit per trade. I think the allure of trend trading is the possibility of 2R, 3R, 10R - hell, while we're at it, lets grab a couple 20+R trades per year If that would be occurring per annum, would that not greatly reduce our costs of 4%? Again, I ask only for my own enlightenment. And it's quite possible that my understanding of MM is sorely lacking, and the R value does not even factor into your discussion. It just seemed to me that profits could vary wildly, and thus the cost ratio could surely change ?? When you have time, would be great to hear more.

And I apologize if this is so far off base that you can't even make sense of it

Trade safe ... meph
  • #384
  • Edited 8:51pm Jan 6, 2011 4:54pm | Edited 8:51pm
Quoting charvo
NB, i know what NB means in Chinese, hoho.

Glad to see that we are in the same trench in the forex battlefield--trend trader.

if you agree that a trend is the only way you'll count on and trust, could i share some humble thoughts?

1. a tiny portion of postion, may be set as breakeven, and let it run till you are shocked....
As to your point, if you are going to move your SL to breakeven I am going to get something for my trade. So 2 pips or whatever is better than nothing. If you are not going to use the BE even philosophy then you are right. As far as the cost of trading goes, that is the cost of trading. When I take a trade I prepay the cost, once I make a profit that cost is gone and it costs me nothing from there on out. The only way to save the cost of trading is to not trade. Percentage arguments dont mean that much to me because they are part of every trade. If you take a 30 pip loss you still have the cost of that trade. It is just part of the business so a 2 pip profit is better than none and far better than a loss.

The second point is I set my trades and go to work. The MPTM protects me from taking losses. Yes I miss some profits too but I have found out trading 20 some currencies allows me to make a profit. If I take 5 trades and one runs and the others are plus 2 then so be it. It has more to do with trading style and lifestyle. My philosophy is this: never let a winner turn into a loser. Once I get to 15 pips I cant lose.

My percentage of winners to losers is around 65% using the 5MA cross on counter trading and not letting my DD grow larger than 10% of my account. I do not know the percentage with this system yet because I have not traded it long enough.
  • #385
  • Jan 6, 2011 5:33pm Jan 6, 2011 5:33pm
Quoting nanningbob
As to your point, if you are going to move your SL to breakeven I am going to get something for my trade. So 2 pips or whatever is better than nothing.
Yes, and as I have discovered, lots of trades taking small profits add up to lots of profits.

  • #386
  • Jan 6, 2011 8:41pm Jan 6, 2011 8:41pm
Starting Monday I will have a live account and will post my trades live like I have in the past. Good or bad here we come. However, I may switch to reporting before the Euro session instead of before the jpy session like I did before. That is because the best setups will be seen from the beginning of the euro to the beginning of the USA session. I also dont want to interfere with the Monday gaps and want them to clear before I post my selections.
  • #387
  • Jan 6, 2011 8:56pm Jan 6, 2011 8:56pm
Hey Bob will you be taking as many trades as possible regardless of which session is open? I know before you mentioned that you check the charts approx 3 times a day.

thx,
todd
  • #388
  • Jan 7, 2011 12:47am Jan 7, 2011 12:47am
Hello all,

I loaded the new trend 1.0 on demo and took a couple of trades yesterday. Still a little too early to tell anything.

I did trade the same system that evolved for me from the V5.3/6.1 combo and made over 80 pips live.

Forgive me if I repeat anything here that others have stated, but I skipped all the stuff that recommended changes to the system. So I may have missed a post or 30.

On both the counter and the trend I was trading the same pairs and same direction. Guess I was lucky

I can see how they differ and the biggest difference is that he 1.0 trend basically eliminated the trades that go against the trend. redundant, but let me explain.

On the counter trades one would take all trades that go outside the TMA and trade back to the center, but on the new trend 1.0 we only take trades in the direction of the trend and take half the trades we would with the counter system.

you can look at it as it is a new wrinkle to the old system or a new system all together.

Just my thoughts...and either way we all need to thank NB and all others that have contributed to this.

  • #389
  • Jan 7, 2011 1:52am Jan 7, 2011 1:52am
Good Luck NB, one question, what will/do you do in the situation where you have 4 or 5 pairs containing the same currency?

a) only run the EA on the couple that look most to your liking?
b) run the EA on all of them, but only take the first couple of entries and cancel the rest?
c) take all the entries, but spread one trade size over all of the pairs? (if you're taking 5 GBP pairs, and your usual size is 0.05, then each pair in this case would be allocated 0.01 or 0.02)
d) something else?

I usually assume that if 4 or 5 pairs containing the same currency start moving together, therefore all giving the same entry signal, the chance of most of them continuing in the same direction is high. This would mean that most will end up with the same result.
  • #390
  • Jan 7, 2011 2:25am Jan 7, 2011 2:25am
Quoting todd960960
Hey Bob will you be taking as many trades as possible regardless of which session is open? I know before you mentioned that you check the charts approx 3 times a day.

thx,
todd
In trend trading your best runs are from euro session until the middle of the USA session. So that is the best place to concentrate on. Also I have a lunch break that will allow me to run my EA. I maybe be able to post my results then too. This leaves my mornings to get ready for school and post my trades at the beginning of GMT time. The counter trend system I could pick up some trades during the jpy session but I dont see where I will get a lot of trades during that time.

I also want to work on one last filter which I need to study this weekend. I will probably add a daily or 4H trend line to go with the weekly to help filter out the retracement back to the 240. So far not enough study to make a decision. Basically the standard MTF view but you will see it on one chart. I just wish some of the people would trade their ideas first before posting them, it just clutters up the thread. If you say I tried this idea for a week and this is my result you get a ton of respect from other traders. But when people just post their favorite idicator it just plugs up the thread. You have to understand when I post the 5x5, it is because I have tested 5x1 and 5x2 and 5x3 and so on. The 5x5 had the least amount of peeker trades. That is why I chose it. I have used the TMA for over 2 months now, it works not for entering trades but letting you know a setup is at hand. That is why I chose it. I already know about the movement later on but that doesnt matter in the present. I am using the 240 for the first time but it makes complete sense to me. Got it from a very experienced trader who I asked and told about all my problems with trend following. He gave me the answer that he had used for years. That made sense to me. If you are going to propose a change in the system test it first and give us your live results. Most of the things posted I have already tried and know what the setbacks will be. Anyway enough of my sermon.
  • #391
  • Jan 7, 2011 2:32am Jan 7, 2011 2:32am
Quoting Radio
Hello all,

I loaded the new trend 1.0 on demo and took a couple of trades yesterday. Still a little too early to tell anything.

I did trade the same system that evolved for me from the V5.3/6.1 combo and made over 80 pips live.

Forgive me if I repeat anything here that others have stated, but I skipped all the stuff that recommended changes to the system. So I may have missed a post or 30.

On both the counter and the trend I was trading the same pairs and same direction. Guess I was lucky

I can see how they differ and the biggest...
Actually I see a point where we blend the contertrade with the trend. As the trend begins changing we can counter trade. I think during divergance we dont counter trade. That may do wonders for the countertrade thread. When we see convergance we begin to countertrade all the way to the trend divergance and then to the next convergance change to countertrading then. It maybe the one key that stops the big DD. I have to look at that on a 4H chart and see how to set it up but if not trading during divergance helps that system, you know we make a ton of pips with it. It took a hard study at trend trading to see that though. Another idea for the weekend. So my cup is full.

I may go back to the old 60x90 thread and trade that in the direction of convergance and divergance. Once you see the potential this may clear up all my trading systems into very successful ones. That is the exciting part to me but you know, like I told Steve, I am a one step at a time person and this is my next step learning to trend trade successfully.
  • #392
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:35am Jan 7, 2011 3:35am
Hi Bob,

Have you tried in your study to see how far a pair (especially eurusd) can move away from the 240MA so it can be considered over extended??

The reason I ask is that, if we know the average distance a pair can move away from the 240MA which represent the wkly trend, then we can also be looking for areas of reversal.

Just a thought to further improve this great ideas for more pips.
  • #393
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:44am Jan 7, 2011 3:44am
Quoting Ibuks
Hi Bob,

Have you tried in your study to see how far a pair (especially eurusd) can move away from the 240MA so it can be considered over extended??

The reason I ask is that, if we know the average distance a pair can move away from the 240MA which represent the wkly trend, then we can also be looking for areas of reversal.

Just a thought to further improve this great ideas for more pips.
That always changes with whatever fundamentals are working on the currency at the time. Your indicators will show the change when it happens. The problem I have always had with trend trending is knowing when it starts and when it ends. I have that definition now what I want to add is a warning that it could be changing and heading back to its median. That will be next.
  • #394
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:46am Jan 7, 2011 3:46am
I took one trade yesterday for 36 pips. Here is a eur/chf trade from yesterday. I played the bounce off of the 240 line and it worked. If price had continued the EA would not have taken the trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur chf.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #395
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:53am Jan 7, 2011 3:53am
I see two trade setups for tonight. Almost all currencies are sitting in the middle which means the market is not sure which way the news will take it tonight. However that could change by the USA open. First is the aud/chf and the second is the USD/CAD. Here are the pics. The Aud/chf has just crossed into an UT and if it goes we are at the very beginning of it. The second the usd/cad has ranged and if the news is bad tonight would make a beautirul trade. If it is good the EA should keep you out.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud chf.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd cad.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #396
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:59am Jan 7, 2011 3:59am
Here are two more possibles. I am not taking the gbp/chf but I will take the aud/nzd. The Aud/Nzd is a very good ranging pair to trade and when it is ranging just load up and take the pips. I am not taking the gbp/chf because the aud/chf looks like the much better trade. The aud/nzd just looks good right now.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp chf.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud nzd.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #397
  • Jan 7, 2011 4:03am Jan 7, 2011 4:03am
The most intriguing trade possibility is the USD/JPY It looks like a great counter trade right now if the news is bad tonight. However, that could change by news time if price retraces in the next 3 hours. Of course this violates my rules but as a news trade it looks intriguing. I wont decide to take this until news time though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd jpy.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #398
  • Jan 7, 2011 4:24am Jan 7, 2011 4:24am
Also, I have a suggestion for a good SL location on all pairs. If the SL was set at the distance from the outer line to middle line of the TMA. Each pair would have its own SL setting that would match its present volatility. So if the distance is 60 pips then the EA would set the SL at 60 or like the USD/jpy is now at 25 that would be its SL. It could also give you a choice set it at 1/2 or 3/4 that distance then your ratio to profit would be better. The SL also needs to be hidden and triggered from the EA and maybe a protective SL of say 100 set at the brokers as protection in case of your computer or internet going down.

Steve is that doable??? Love to challenge his programming skills.
  • #399
  • Jan 7, 2011 4:47am Jan 7, 2011 4:47am
Quoting nanningbob
Steve is that doable??? Love to challenge his programming skills.
I am going to have to program this into the auto-trader so I have to devise the code anyhow.

Rather than try to do a piecemeal development of several different ea's for what are really the same functions, here is what I propose:

 

  1. add an input to the auto-trader that will send it onto 'waiting' mode as if it were one of the buy/sell ea's we are using here. Users will use it in their manual trading and drag it onto the chart when there is a setup
  2. add the visual stop loss that the criminals can see - a user setting of, say, 100 pips
  3. add the hidden stop loss feature

The advantage of this is that users will have the added functionality of the auto-trader built in; it includes the most popular mptm features and will save having to run this separately. Users can then use jumping/trailing stops etc that suit the volatility of the individual pair.

As trade exits become more sophisticated, I can add them to the auto-trader. The end result will be a fantastic EA that traders can use either as an auto-trader or purely as an adjunct to their manual trading.

Leave it with me.

  • #400
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:09am Jan 7, 2011 5:09am
Quoting SteveHopwood
I am going to have to program this into the auto-trader so I have to devise the code anyhow.

Rather than try to do a piecemeal development of several different ea's for what are really the same functions, here is what I propose:
[list=1][*]add an input to the auto-trader that will send it onto 'waiting' mode as if it were one of the buy/sell ea's we are using here. Users will use it in their manual trading and drag it onto the chart when there is a setup[*]add the visual stop loss that the criminals can see - a user setting of, say, 100 pips[*]add...
That is fantastic. Great!
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