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  • #360,041
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:18pm Jan 6, 2011 3:18pm
sorry, but that trendline right below the red arrow i painted doesn't make any sense.
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  • #360,042
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:19pm Jan 6, 2011 3:19pm
Quoting paul1
That is exactly what i anticipate .
its the logical figure .

4280 down 800 pips
3780 down 800 pips
then there is the extreme pin high 3500 down 800 pips =2700
or the the more solid tops around 3400 down 800 pips =2600
this is just rough calculation but you can see what i mean on the daily chart.
Paul, check the weekly is a lot cleaner. There is 2 clear S. One is the current 1.298x and the next 1.264x. The options are even easier to spot:

1. Clean break of 1.298x (weekly close) shorts 2 next S
2. Down and Close above (bear trap) long to next R 1.340x (confirming a weekly range)

Details and charts tomorrow before reports.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #360,043
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:20pm Jan 6, 2011 3:20pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Yes, my backup plan is to move to Alaska.

I don't know if you've read anything on the link between solar flares and the Earth's temperature but it's highly correlated....
if you throw a stone in the lake.. the water level rises. throw enough stones in the ocean and all the live rats end up on the same island.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #360,044
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:23pm Jan 6, 2011 3:23pm
gold chart

as long as the red trendchannel holds, everything appears to be fine. i'm glad, i don't trade this.
Attached Image
  • #360,045
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:24pm Jan 6, 2011 3:24pm
Quoting paul1
That is exactly what i anticipate .
its the logical figure .

4280 down 800 pips
3780 down 800 pips
then there is the extreme pin high 3500 down 800 pips =2700
or the the more solid tops around 3400 down 800 pips =2600
this is just rough calculation but you can see what i mean on the daily chart.
Thank you very much for your insight.
  • #360,046
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:28pm Jan 6, 2011 3:28pm
Quoting AllyB
Read this: http://www.forexcrunch.com/5-notes-f...rolls-trading/
thanks for the link
  • #360,047
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:29pm Jan 6, 2011 3:29pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
sorry, but that trendline right below the red arrow i painted doesn't make any sense.
that's the way it should look like.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #360,048
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:31pm Jan 6, 2011 3:31pm
Quoting wallstreet03
how do you use ATR for stop loss ??
http://www.actionforex.com/index2.ph...o_pdf=1&id=205
  • #360,049
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:34pm Jan 6, 2011 3:34pm
Everything is so quite now.. before crazy tomorrow day !

I think that USD will get good NFP results (250 ?) which will continue to collapse Euro.
  • #360,050
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:37pm Jan 6, 2011 3:37pm
Quoting style2fx
Everything is so quite now.. before crazy tomorrow day !

I think that USD will get good NFP results (250 ?) which will continue to collapse Euro.
Your monkey avatar is good, but not as good as Hatch's lol

Inserted Video
  • #360,051
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:40pm Jan 6, 2011 3:40pm
Quote
Low liquidity giving the smart money a very good chance to pump up the price and set up deadly bull trap. This thing will hopefully go more with fundamentals

This is what I thought of this when it spiked in late dec. Well, I am still learning and hopefully market will teach me for the better.
  • #360,052
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:41pm Jan 6, 2011 3:41pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
Your monkey avatar is good, but not as good as Hatch's lol
the more i look at that little one, the more i want it as a pet. if it could talk, he'd be my best friend.
  • #360,053
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:42pm Jan 6, 2011 3:42pm
Quoting sisse
Paul, check the weekly is a lot cleaner. There is 2 clear S. One is the current 1.298x and the next 1.264x. The options are even easier to spot:

1. Clean break of 1.298x (weekly close) shorts 2 next S
2. Down and Close above (bear trap) long to next R 1.340x (confirming a weekly range)

Details and charts tomorrow before reports.

sisse
Hey Sisse, thanks for the tip (I rarely look at the weekly charts, but you are right, it's a lot clearer).
I have closed my positions at 1.3085 earlier on and did not re-enter afterwards. I also spotted the DB on daily chart at 1.298X.

The few systems I am using indicate overbought at present, so I'll favour a retracement tomorrow (Besides this would be a healthy sign of a downtrend move). I am planning to go long at 1.298x with 30pips SL. Targets will be defined along the way up using pivots, but unlikely up to 1.34. Will resume to short afterwards except if it shoot above 1.35.

If clean break of 1.298X - I'll go short again.

Does that sound like a good plan?
  • #360,054
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:42pm Jan 6, 2011 3:42pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
Your monkey avatar is good, but not as good as Hatch's lol
We form a funny familly, and I love his glasses, I tried to buy it for 100€ and now Hatch increased the price up to 1000€ and tomorrow probably more..
  • #360,055
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:44pm Jan 6, 2011 3:44pm
Quoting style2fx
We form a funny familly, and I love his glasses, I tried to buy it for 100€ and now Hatch increased the price up to 1000€ and tomorrow probably more..
how could he properly advise me, if i sold his glasses?
  • #360,056
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:50pm Jan 6, 2011 3:50pm
Quoting coldrecs
No, another one. There were rumours in the market that an option barrier was also in place at 1.3000. And seeing the price action around that level I believe the rumours were true.
There seems to be a lot of reporters that are posting articles about option defenses just now (is this the new "support/resistence" levels for the press?).

But there are some things we have to consider when we hear these things.

First, what type of barrier is this? A knock-in? A knock-out? A digital? Is it expiring or is it being knocked for later expiry? Often, these details are unreported.

Second, the fact is these are generally "over-the-counter", custom structures written by banks for hedge funds. Banks have very strict market risk management, and the writers of such options are required to keep their exposure hedged from the day they write the structure. So, when, for example, barriers are approached, there is little actual gain or loss not already realized that will attain from the event. The buyers, of course, may try to influence things, because hedge funds are generally unregulated, and, ironically, they seldom actually hedge.

Third, the size of these things are rarely really all that big, in comparison to the forex market's dealing flow, or, for that matter, in terms of the entire exposure of a bank's or broker's options portfolio. For example, I believe the barrier structure reported to have been holding back the tide at 3125 or so was in fact less than 15MM. Ask yourself two questions: how important do you think 15MM is, to, say, the Goldman options book? And second, how many billion in forex offers would you be willing to absorb so as to not have to pay out that 15MM?
  • #360,057
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:50pm Jan 6, 2011 3:50pm
Here is quite an excellent indicator XB4d

http://www.mediafire.com/?abjdl42n3f0r1v1

// tuttler
  • #360,058
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:51pm Jan 6, 2011 3:51pm
Quoting tuttler
Here is quite an excellent indicator XB4d

http://www.mediafire.com/?abjdl42n3f0r1v1

// tuttler

indicators are for loosers...
  • #360,059
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:51pm Jan 6, 2011 3:51pm
Quoting snatch
here's one i made fresh off the bloomberg terminal just for you my little pet x

anna
wow, what did i do to you to deserve this?
  • #360,060
  • Jan 6, 2011 3:52pm Jan 6, 2011 3:52pm
Quoting OldQuant
The only way this answers "how" to trade, of course, is "by not doing so." But if you wish to try, best of luck.
how?, good question, but where? is important, too. As in, "where do you trade?" Oanda has gotten so bad about platform disconnects during the big shows that I no longer try to scalp the high volatility "news" events anymore. Which is, of course, what they wanted.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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