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  • #360,021
  • Jan 6, 2011 12:47pm Jan 6, 2011 12:47pm
Gute Nacht, es war schön Euch zu lesen.
good Night, it was very fine to read you
If you now the Way out -- please tell me
  • #360,022
  • Jan 6, 2011 12:48pm Jan 6, 2011 12:48pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
I think asia will park it up 50 or so pips from support, obviously a narrow range from London open up until release, and then the fireworks..

FYi pure speculation naturally...
we might i think the 60's will top the move unless they wanna take some profit out befor london .

man i do have a strange feelen about tomo. we might get a bad number

dam i might be wrong or high
  • #360,023
  • Jan 6, 2011 12:51pm Jan 6, 2011 12:51pm
Quoting Traderji
No it's not really. I didn't ask if I should trade, I asked how to trade. No one is born with trading knowledge, everyone learns from the basics. I wish to learn and that's why I posted my question.

But it's easy to be an asshole on the interwebs and his reply is on par for this thread.
Read this: http://www.forexcrunch.com/5-notes-f...rolls-trading/
  • #360,024
  • Jan 6, 2011 12:51pm Jan 6, 2011 12:51pm
the most annoying thing about a trend is that you don't know when it'll stop so I always in a dilemma, take my profits now or let it stay for the night and let it grow? The thing is, if it doesn't go on and it turns 180° you lose a lot of profit :/

I currently have about 70 pips profit but should I place a TP at 1.2970-ish or close :/ Decisions, decisions,...
  • #360,025
  • Jan 6, 2011 12:54pm Jan 6, 2011 12:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
i ask this question to myself all the time trading and in life. "what if im wrong"
do you have a backup plan?
Yes, my backup plan is to move to Alaska.

I don't know if you've read anything on the link between solar flares and the Earth's temperature but it's highly correlated. There's approximately a 2.2 year lag between solar flares and temperature changes on Earth. We are just ending a period of some of the lowest solar flare activity in quite a while so I would anticipate below average temperatures in the world through 2012. Who knows; maybe it'll snow in LA proper? http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jan...evine-20110105
Here's a report on solar flares vs world temperatures: http://www.fel.duke.edu/~scafetta/pdf/PRL48701.pdf
The problem with tying global warming/cooling to solar flares is there's no way to make money taxing solar flares.

The one constant about weather is that it constantly changes. Hot, cold, dry, wet. Given enough time, it will change.

My bigger short term concern about the world's weather is the possibility of another year without a summer, as what happened in 1816. The combination of low solar activity (check) and the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 (keep an eye on Katla) caused record cold temperatures across the world.
Mount Tambora's 1815 eruption was a VIE7 and Katla is usually a VIE5 when it erupts so it shouldn't be as bad across the world if it does erupt, but this is a very possible scenario. Wouldn't it be ironic if 2012 was the year without a summer? That'd really give the Mayan calendar conspiracy theorists something to talk about.
  • #360,026
  • Jan 6, 2011 12:55pm Jan 6, 2011 12:55pm
how do you use ATR for stop loss ??
  • #360,027
  • Jan 6, 2011 12:55pm Jan 6, 2011 12:55pm
Quoting kill56
we might i think the 60's will top the move unless they wanna take some profit out befor london .

man i do have a strange feelen about tomo. we might get a bad number

dam i might be wrong or high
Working temporarily (for a few months) so not around to trade London main sesh, I'm not into position trading at the moment anyway. Will be lots of scope for taking chunks out of the trend, once we get out of this consolidation...

That's the thing in Forex and trading generally, if you miss the train, there will always be another one departing soon enough...
  • #360,028
  • Jan 6, 2011 12:55pm Jan 6, 2011 12:55pm
Quoting coldrecs
No, another one. There were rumours in the market that an option barrier was also in place at 1.3000. And seeing the price action around that level I believe the rumours were true.
Ok buddy but most expiries that affect us expire at 15:00 london.

So Personally no trader is going to be defending a level at 16:00 london time.
1.3000 is a major level .
it took a lot of orders to break the supports we did today my view is for them to regroup consolidate /retrace for a decent move tommorrow with the official figures.
if tommorows figures confirm adp numbers we could push through 1.3000
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #360,029
  • Jan 6, 2011 12:59pm Jan 6, 2011 12:59pm
Saw an article on Reuters, Traders are aexpecting EU to fall to 1.26...

How crazy is this?
  • #360,030
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:00pm Jan 6, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting reaperunique
the most annoying thing about a trend is that you don't know when it'll stop so I always in a dilemma, take my profits now or let it stay for the night and let it grow? The thing is, if it doesn't go on and it turns 180° you lose a lot of profit :/

I currently have about 70 pips profit but should I place a TP at 1.2970-ish or close :/ Decisions, decisions,...
I think the best is to take a good profit and re enter in the market again...
  • #360,031
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:00pm Jan 6, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting reaperunique
the most annoying thing about a trend is that you don't know when it'll stop so I always in a dilemma, take my profits now or let it stay for the night and let it grow? The thing is, if it doesn't go on and it turns 180° you lose a lot of profit :/

I currently have about 70 pips profit but should I place a TP at 1.2970-ish or close :/ Decisions, decisions,...
set SL to BE ou BE + some and set your alarm to london opening to manage the trade...
it will hardly retrace 70pips during asian session...
  • #360,032
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:00pm Jan 6, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting OldQuant
Thanks for the reply.

Whose time&sales? Your market maker's, broker's, ECN's, or the CME's futures?
At mbtrading they have the banks feed.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #360,033
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:01pm Jan 6, 2011 1:01pm
Quoting paul1
Ok buddy but most expiries that affect us expire at 15:00 london.

So Personally no trader is going to be defending a level at 16:00 london time.
1.3000 is a major level .
it took a lot of orders to break the supports we did today my view is for them to regroup consolidate /retrace for a decent move tommorrow with the official figures.
if tommorows figures confirm adp numbers we could push through 1.3000
I understand your point. And I think you are right. From what I know the expiry is for tomorrow, but the seller of that option had little reason to defend it today, a day before the expiry.
  • #360,034
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:04pm Jan 6, 2011 1:04pm
Quoting Traderji
No it's not really. I didn't ask if I should trade, I asked how to trade. No one is born with trading knowledge, everyone learns from the basics. I wish to learn and that's why I posted my question.

But it's easy to be an asshole on the interwebs and his reply is on par for this thread.
Here's what Kathy Lien thinks about the tomorrow's NFP

http://www.bkforexadvisors.com/kathy...farm-payrolls/
  • #360,035
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:06pm Jan 6, 2011 1:06pm
Quoting Andreenzo
Saw an article on Reuters, Traders are aexpecting EU to fall to 1.26...

How crazy is this?
That is exactly what i anticipate .
its the logical figure .

4280 down 800 pips
3780 down 800 pips
then there is the extreme pin high 3500 down 800 pips =2700
or the the more solid tops around 3400 down 800 pips =2600
this is just rough calculation but you can see what i mean on the daily chart.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #360,036
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:06pm Jan 6, 2011 1:06pm
Quoting Traderji
I didn't ask if I should trade, I asked how to trade.
First and foremost, watch the spreads posted by the entity you trade with from a couple of minutes prior to the announcement, and into it. If you can get an honest history of the posted spreads from them afterwards, download it. Then see if you could reasonably expect to have been able to trade effectively given those spreads.

Remember, as someone showed just now in a chart, there can be 100 ticks high to low posted to a 15M candle, but at the level of seconds, it is as volatile as the wind directions in a hurricane. Even in the best case, you are still trading against automated apps which have a huge edge on you, both in execution speed and fill level.

The only way this answers "how" to trade, of course, is "by not doing so." But if you wish to try, best of luck.
  • #360,037
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:07pm Jan 6, 2011 1:07pm
Quoting paul1
At mbtrading they have the banks feed.
TNX.
  • #360,038
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:09pm Jan 6, 2011 1:09pm
Quoting OldQuant
First and foremost, watch the spreads posted by the entity you trade with from a couple of minutes prior to the announcement, and into it....
So true!
  • #360,039
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:10pm Jan 6, 2011 1:10pm
Bear, Gator, Kill56- Guys, I've been studying FX for quite a few years and am taking classes at online trading academy which I really do like, however... I'm still very much a noob when it comes to this. When you see a critical point like 1.3000 where it will either bounce off support or crash through and run lower, how do you trade that? I mean if you were going to set up a sell (I'm usa eastern time and wish to eventually walk away before midnight...) Where do you position your sell? at 1.2995 or do you wait of a retracement if it breaks below 1.3000 and then sell off of that? Are there any key things you are looking for? I realize right now would be dumb to jump in because everything is consolidating and we are waiting for movement either way, but what is key for you guys to look for? I like your opinions and watch what you guys do on a regular basis to help me learn more and more about this crazy world of FX. Any insight is much appreciated. I'm sure there are others wondering the same thing.
  • #360,040
  • Jan 6, 2011 1:14pm Jan 6, 2011 1:14pm
Having closed my final sell from 3428, here are Some helpful charts before NFP tomorrow... self-explanatory charts i think, unless you use MT4!

regards
anna
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