DislikedDoug,
I've been trading price action for 25 years so I'm very comfortable with it.
I would have to disagree with you about the fact that a congruent add and minus from the COT is not an edge in itself.
Since following this thread I've seen it play out time after time but then again maybe I'm reading/trading it in a different way then others in here do.
For me it's all about the CONGRUENCY.
I take the Price Action set ups where the COT confirms my directional bias.
I was questioning the kiwi trade because it was counter the non commercials...Ignored
I agree about the value of a directional bias though there is controversy about this. I have found that a directional bias and the discipline to trade it properly is the safest way to trade even when the bias is incorrect. I can usually break even or squeeze out a few pips even when I am wrong so I only need to be right 50% of the time and an edge exists. I dont use last weeks COT release as my bias as I trade intra-day mostly. I use the daily price chart, retail positioning and news releases.
As a new years resolution I resolve to take more note of the COT congruency you mention.
Keep up the good work, and keep posting your trades and reasoning as you have alot to offer
see you here in the new year!
BTC Return This Year:
1.6%