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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #4,921
  • Jan 1, 2011 9:28am Jan 1, 2011 9:28am
Quoting Standard Oil
Doug,

I've been trading price action for 25 years so I'm very comfortable with it.

I would have to disagree with you about the fact that a congruent add and minus from the COT is not an edge in itself.

Since following this thread I've seen it play out time after time but then again maybe I'm reading/trading it in a different way then others in here do.

For me it's all about the CONGRUENCY.

I take the Price Action set ups where the COT confirms my directional bias.

I was questioning the kiwi trade because it was counter the non commercials...
Sounds like a great system. I like your approach and discipline. My apologies but I mistook you for a beginner who thought the COT was all he needed to trade

I agree about the value of a directional bias though there is controversy about this. I have found that a directional bias and the discipline to trade it properly is the safest way to trade even when the bias is incorrect. I can usually break even or squeeze out a few pips even when I am wrong so I only need to be right 50% of the time and an edge exists. I dont use last weeks COT release as my bias as I trade intra-day mostly. I use the daily price chart, retail positioning and news releases.

As a new years resolution I resolve to take more note of the COT congruency you mention.

Keep up the good work, and keep posting your trades and reasoning as you have alot to offer

see you here in the new year!
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #4,922
  • Jan 3, 2011 4:20am Jan 3, 2011 4:20am
hello guys
happy new year
what do think about gold ?
i think she can touch 1440 easily but at 1440 price complete wolfi wave and crab pattern
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show me the money
  • #4,923
  • Jan 3, 2011 4:33am Jan 3, 2011 4:33am
regular divergence in PRZ of AB=CD i m waiting for strong trigger
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show me the money
  • #4,924
  • Jan 4, 2011 3:13am Jan 4, 2011 3:13am
AB=CD complete on midline of fork on support zone
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show me the money
  • #4,925
  • Jan 4, 2011 3:20am Jan 4, 2011 3:20am
symety on AUDUSD and R/S on trend line
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show me the money
  • #4,926
  • Jan 4, 2011 5:26am Jan 4, 2011 5:26am
i am a newbie and i stumble on this tread by referral from a friend. i hope to make judicious use of this tread with time for a great pips.

to every member i want to say happy new year.

as will stand together as one.

long live forex factory.
  • #4,927
  • Edited 10:24am Jan 4, 2011 9:32am | Edited 10:24am
Let's see see where this baby can go. Il LOVE those 76.4-78.6 retracements. They are absolutely everywhere.

EDIT : closed @BE.
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Hello.
  • #4,928
  • Jan 4, 2011 11:16am Jan 4, 2011 11:16am
hi guys!
i'm new to the cot interpretation so i need your opinion

looking this euro cot chart it seems we are in a congestion and the large spec
reduced a lot their long net position. could be this one a good signal for short breakout?

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/9808/eurusdpng.png


p.s. i'm sorry for my bad english..
  • #4,929
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:50am Jan 5, 2011 4:50am
Quoting majid.hesari
symety on AUDUSD and R/S on trend line
+ fibo
+ div on h1

it may be a nice trade with low risk
http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/4302/18354192.gif
  • #4,930
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:05am Jan 5, 2011 7:05am
attention momentum is strong sell we need good trigger
show me the money
  • #4,931
  • Jan 5, 2011 7:58pm Jan 5, 2011 7:58pm
Quoting jc.
hi guys!
i'm new to the cot interpretation so i need your opinion

looking this euro cot chart it seems we are in a congestion and the large spec
reduced a lot their long net position. could be this one a good signal for short breakout?

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/9808/eurusdpng.png


p.s. i'm sorry for my bad english..

Yes but you could have shorted the high of that channel as well !

Downtime to the 4hr or the 1hr and look for tighter opertunities
  • #4,932
  • Jan 6, 2011 10:44pm Jan 6, 2011 10:44pm
shahab , majid , please what is happening , even xmas and new year period witnessed few posts.

i am sick of usd $ strength in the mrk .
  • #4,933
  • Jan 7, 2011 6:39am Jan 7, 2011 6:39am
Quoting japfx
shahab , majid , please what is happening , even xmas and new year period witnessed few posts.

i am sick of usd $ strength in the mrk .

Getting sore at the market doesn’t get you anywhere.


What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game – that is, to play the market
only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play. There is the plain fool, who does
the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is also the Wall Street fool, who thinks he
must trade all the time. No man can have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily
– or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.

Jesse Livermore
  • #4,934
  • Jan 7, 2011 6:47am Jan 7, 2011 6:47am
+1

“In this game, the market has to keep pitching, but you don’t have to swing. You can stand there with the bat on your shoulder until you get a fat pitch.”
- Warren Buffett



Oh, and another interesting reading if you got spare time Japfx : here.


Happy trading to all.

Quoting Standard Oil
[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=2]Getting...
Hello.
  • #4,935
  • Jan 7, 2011 10:19am Jan 7, 2011 10:19am
Quoting Standard Oil
[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=2]Getting...

standard oil with all due respect, i am not glad with this response. but with the spirit of continuity that lines in brotherhood (fx) , i will reserve my comment.

i threw that clause to arise some points. but i never expected such from a man like you. all thesame, i wish to say i am sorry to all .

and also added that a close look at very man matter as outside him may be cute but rite in there is a bitch.

thanks
  • #4,936
  • Jan 7, 2011 12:05pm Jan 7, 2011 12:05pm
Quoting japfx
standard oil with all due respect, i am not glad with this response. but with the spirit of continuity that lines in brotherhood (fx) , i will reserve my comment.

i threw that clause to arise some points. but i never expected such from a man like you. all thesame, i wish to say i am sorry to all .

and also added that a close look at very man matter as outside him may be cute but rite in there is a bitch.

thanks
Japfx,

I'm afraid you did not fully understand Standard Oil's response. The only thing Std Oil tried to get across is that there isn't a lot of trading taking place during the holiday season as most traders are away, and therefore, little to discuss in this thread. I'm pretty sure next week things will start to get more lively again, both in the market place and on FF, as most traders will be back from their holiday and start trading again.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #4,937
  • Jan 8, 2011 8:38am Jan 8, 2011 8:38am
Quoting japfx
i never expected such from a man like you.
Those where quotes from Jessie Livermore the greatest trader of all times, not mine.

A gift for everyone but especially for you japfx

http://www.trading-naked.com/library..._livermore.pdf
  • #4,938
  • Jan 9, 2011 1:19pm Jan 9, 2011 1:19pm
Quoting emene
Let's see see where this baby can go. Il LOVE those 76.4-78.6 retracements. They are absolutely everywhere.

EDIT : closed @BE.

Does this 76 to 78 retrace works for you with a higher frequency. Do explain your personel experience, if possible.
  • #4,939
  • Edited 3:56am Jan 10, 2011 3:54am | Edited 3:56am
Actually it's very simple and straightforward. Most globally, I learned that the 75% retracement can be found everywhere. I use 76.4 and 78.6 fibs retracements. On small timeframes, it's almost the same lines, but on higher timeframes, for larger swings, the difference of price is important. That's why I prefer to keep them both, it appears that they both work as frequently.

The basic principle is that there is no such things as price gaps in forex, in contrary to stocks. But there are some Price Action that you can call such. What I learned to call gaps are big moves that leaves some people positioned with a large loss. And of course they do not like it.

1) They need the price to come back to this area to cover their position near or at BE.

2) People who saw that this area provided some good entry point the first time, meaning it is a bargain price of supply or demand, are going in not to miss the second wagon.

All in all, just throw some 61.8; 76.4 and 78.6 fibs on your charts and see the magic happens.It's everywhere, small and large timeframes. Actually, what I like to do when there is a reversal and that I cannot pick the exact top or bottom, is to wait for a 76.4-78.6 pullback to get in. This is what some people call 'the hook'. It's kind of a second chance to get in. It means you can get in the move pretty much at the top or bottom.

At that point, you can look for a divergence on an oscillator to confirm your entry.

Anyway, I hope I'm not confusing you. The only thing that matters to me is to identify high probabilities reversal zones, former support or resistances area, watch for a reaction, wait for a pullback confirmation and ride it. I lock profits in asap and then it's a free trade

Good trading to you.

Quoting jackm1
Does this 76 to 78 retrace works for you with a higher frequency. Do explain your personel experience, if possible.
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Hello.
  • #4,940
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:00am Jan 10, 2011 4:00am
And you can use it to scalp too. This is this morning EU 1min. I'll stop here not to pollute the thread.
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Hello.
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