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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #84,621
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:00pm Jan 5, 2011 4:00pm
My desktop bit the dust...in external hard drive restoration mode to new computer....what a pain...the thread is moving so fast....need to catch up ...I'm missing all the fun
  • #84,622
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:04pm Jan 5, 2011 4:04pm
Quoting Pinbar
Wow......I am totally flabbergasted!

It is really hard to imagine Jarroo drawing birdcages.

Actually come to think of it, it is also hard to remember me doing it and that, was not in the so far distant past. It is really interesting how we bang our heads against the wall for so long, then for reason, little by little we don't bang our heads on it quite so much. I find learning to trade a very self reflective and rewarding experience.

I guess it is just one of the things we have to go through.

Thanks Jarroo.
lol . .I wasn't born with this stuff in my head . .I had to learn it, practise it, demo it, personalize it, etc. . . just like everyone else.

Its all part of the journey . .
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #84,623
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:13pm Jan 5, 2011 4:13pm
Quoting Caesar
What are peoples thoughts on this BEOB on the USD? I see parity, which is a nice PPZ, the 38.2 fib from the last swing high, and a minor PPZ all for resistance to a bearish move as confluence. Plus there is a pinbar 6 bars back that will hopefully by an early indicator of a bearish move.

Mike, should my stop now be moved on top of the poodle pinbar to follow the 2 bar stop method? Or do I continue to wait since I do not have enough bars to start the count?

Working hard not to close winners after 10 pips this year :-)

Thanks!
Hey C

What do your rules say?

There is never going to be a 100% right answer, since we are speaking from a single trade standpoint. I am in this one and leaving my stop b/c of a variety reasons. The strongest being if 1.00 has been broken and confirmed as we are saying the PA is showing(close under on weekly first time as well as the pullback now with the 4hr PA). I am either right and it holds, or I am wrong and the entire wedge pattern will need to be re-evaluated. But my style is more open and letting price work. If you are a quick to b/e then that could be a sign to cut out. I wish I could say do xyz, and you can expect one thing, but I can't unfortunately. No one can. The thing with this type of setup is it is more of a breakout and pullback and the breakout area is your FTA(which is the break of the beob). This is uncomfortable for most who are looking for "hard breaks" which can find problems at this area. You have to have faith in your testing and method to know when to hold these vs fold. I see nothing telling me to close mine out yet as nothing as happened.

The 2 bar stop method is simply one of many methods I use to help me manage my trades. Not a be all end all. You could apply that in this situation, but technically speaking that means your stop comes above the high of that pin and you get stopped for a small loss(one of the rules). I am not applying anything on this but a wait and see mentality. If I am wrong I take my loss and it changes nothing going forward of how I analyze the markets. Remember we don't want to use one trade as our benchmark for everything we do as we will always change and never have confidence.

I know I used your post as a bit of a springboard, but it is always a good reminder when learning this stuff.

If you are on demo a great way to get confidence is marking multiple exit and entry methods. That way 6, 12 months down the line you can see how things play out in a variety of ways that will help mold you into the trader you are looking to become.

Take care
Mike
  • #84,624
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:16pm Jan 5, 2011 4:16pm
Quoting Carnegie
Whaaats up guys!?

Long time no see. Just long time - more reading, less understanding.. Hahaha

Anyway this is my ask of the day: AUDNZD Daily.

I have put on a Fib retracement on that last move up and price finds support right on the fib. Now the big guys here always talk about what happened BEFORE the candle and whats the story.. And this is how I interpret the story:

First of all we have a nice big BUOB sitting right on Fib (as mentioned) and also we have a PPZ that has quite some touches on it.
And along with that we have a nice...
For me it is a pass. The BUOB is sitting good. But look what is above the PA. The BUOB couldnīt close above the 1.32 so it is still acting as resistance if it would close above 1.32 i would look different at it ;-)
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  • #84,625
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:18pm Jan 5, 2011 4:18pm
Quoting john225
For me it is a pass. The BUOB is sitting good. But look what is above the PA. The BUOB couldnīt close above the 1.32 so it is still acting as resistance if it would close above 1.32 i would look different at it ;-)
But it closed well above 1.31
  • #84,626
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:20pm Jan 5, 2011 4:20pm
Quoting Adilius07
But it closed well above 1.31
But i mean 1.32 xD

I think this would be better
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  • #84,627
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:21pm Jan 5, 2011 4:21pm
Quoting john225
For me it is a pass. The BUOB is sitting good. But look what is above the PA. The BUOB couldnīt close above the 1.32 so it is still acting as resistance if it would close above 1.32 i would look different at it ;-)
Word for word what I was going to say as well.

This area certainly could hold though, but I would say the same as you John, that close above 1.32 would change the entire dynamic.

Now I don't think it makes it a horrible setup. One could see how price acts around 1.32. Makes sense too for sure.

I have marked trouble areas as well as a retracement area/potential stop loss mgmt area

We can still formulate reasonable trade plans around all bars, which is the beauty of PA and S/R and locations
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  • #84,628
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:22pm Jan 5, 2011 4:22pm
Quoting john225
But i mean 1.32 xD
Yeah but what is significance of it? Price went up and down through it (last two swings) like there was nothing there.

Why price should start to respect it now?
  • #84,629
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:30pm Jan 5, 2011 4:30pm
Quoting Adilius07
Yeah but what is significance of it? Price went up and down through it (last two swings) like there was nothing there.

Why price should start to respect it now?
You are right Adi(but we need to think a bit deeper about this) so if I may , the key is not what has to happen every time. It is a way to give us proper idea for the NOW. Irregardless of what price may do tomorrow

the 1.32 now becomes a very important short term level. Why? It's the closest round number and price was clearly kept under it today. So as a trader where are you going to be looking tomorrow? The high of yesterday and the near round number 1.32. That isn't magic, that is just market behavior. So we need something to go by, and now that the market is back around an important area, we use our knowledge to identify what components we can use in the NOW.

now if we take our analysis further we know we are sitting near support type areas, but notice the two swing highs where price had found lots of supply. We are around this area again. Wouldn't you say the bulls are in much more control if they could close the day above those bar highs? Wouldn't you say the bulls are in much more control if they could close the day above the large round number of 1.32?

Again maybe not. It's how I evaluate strength and weakness(part of it at least) in a market place. What happens now that I sit on my hands is meaningless. They are rules to keep my personal trading structured. Your rules may be different, as long as you prove them that is more important then what any of us tell you.

Hopefully you can see a bit better about market dynamics here and you can decide as a trader which ones you want to help govern you and which you don't.

That is the beauty of the market. I might say something and it means zero to someone. I am completely cool with that as long as that someone has rules that govern them and work. I use my rules and have a deeper relationship connected to them. This is my belief. Without my belief , I would have no conviction. Without my conviction I would have no faith to trade them through the ups and downs.


All the best!
Mike
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  • #84,630
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:31pm Jan 5, 2011 4:31pm
Quoting Adilius07
Yeah but what is significance of it? Price went up and down through it (last two swings) like there was nothing there.

Why price should start to respect it now?
This is how I see it. Price managed to close above all those previous closes.
Yeah below 1.32 but I don't see any significance of 1.32 in this situation. Price wen above and belove it with ease.

However close at like 1.3201 would have been even better I agree
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  • #84,631
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:32pm Jan 5, 2011 4:32pm
Mike, if I understand correctly you would wait for a close above 1.32 and PA pending go long at a re-test?
You know I am in this thread every day which continues to be an eye opener to the magic that happens around PPZ levels. But beyond analyzing historical charts, and down to trading I am still unclear when to pull the trigger at PPZ or after close above/below.
Thank You Kindly,


Quoting mbqb11
Word for word what I was going to say as well.

This area certainly could hold though, but I would say the same as you John, that close above 1.32 would change the entire dynamic.

Now I don't think it makes it a horrible setup. One could see how price acts around 1.32. Makes sense too for sure.

I have marked trouble areas as well as a retracement area/potential stop loss mgmt area

We can still formulate reasonable trade plans around all bars, which is the beauty of PA and S/R and locations
"As Kids we believe Anything is Possible; the Trick is to never forget it!"
  • #84,632
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:34pm Jan 5, 2011 4:34pm
Quoting triger88990
Next time just try asking yourself

Where price is coming from and in how manner it comes?

Can I fight back those mouvements?

maybe it will help you don't forget the market is a battlefield you must make your manoeuvres strategicaly

just my 0.2 c
LOL i was blindly looking only at a ppz . Now that i look at the 4h chart again i see that there are only bullish bars, which means the price is going up pretty strong.
  • #84,633
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:36pm Jan 5, 2011 4:36pm
Quoting teemo
Mike, if I understand correctly you would wait for a close above 1.32 and PA pending go long at a re-test?
You know I am in this thread every day which continues to be an eye opener to the magic that happens around PPZ levels. But beyond analyzing historical charts, and down to trading I am still unclear when to pull the trigger at PPZ or after close above/below.
Thank You Kindly,
Hey Teemo

It takes time, a lot of time. The more you see and do(and learn from the good and mostly the bad).

This is a case where if price closed above 1.32 then I would simply trade the BUOB. I don't over complicate it . I analyze location/confluence,price bar structure of bar etc and pull the trigger and manage the trade. So this is a case where most is good but the structure of the BUOB is not good enough. If it was I would simply buy the buob on a break.

I said I don't over complicate it and yes there are a lot of pieces to each of the above, so that might be misleading to someone new to PA. But it is still simple stuff. Meaning I don't try to over analyze past what I know works. So it is simple, but not easy. If I can borrow that line.

Best
Mike

Will be back later tonight, thanks for the chat all
  • #84,634
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:41pm Jan 5, 2011 4:41pm
Quoting mbqb11
You are right Adi(but we need to think a bit deeper about this) so if I may ,...

Thank you very much Mike. Truely makes sence.

I have however not yet developed my rules (under construction).
So this is exactly what I am trying to do. I know there always be something not ideal for any kind of situation. Like for example if this bar closed well above 1.32 but there was much less space or something alike. So we skip again.

I need to trade somehow with all these barriers. So I think no matter how picky I am there will be something to fade.

Yeah I need more time, maybe this post of mine will look stupid in 6 more months from today. But for now I am trying to develop some kind of objective plan. And as I saw many times (just by eye balling not trading) when a strong bar closes right on the BRN the successive move can be even stronger (maybe because there are even more stops don't know). And if the BRN holds my order should not be triggered at all, like here it is at 1.3227.
  • #84,635
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:41pm Jan 5, 2011 4:41pm
Thanks a ton Mike! This, and your previous reply #84651 really clarifies a lot. My deep respect to you, Jarroo and off course the Maestro of it all for seeing that stuff in such a simple manner!



Quoting mbqb11
Hey Teemo

It takes time, a lot of time. The more you see and do(and learn from the good and mostly the bad).

This is a case where if price closed above 1.32 then I would simply trade the BUOB....
"As Kids we believe Anything is Possible; the Trick is to never forget it!"
  • #84,636
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:55pm Jan 5, 2011 4:55pm
Quoting mbqb11
You are right Adi(but we need to think a bit deeper about this) so if I may , the key is not what has to happen every time. It is a way to give us proper idea for the NOW. Irregardless of what price may do tomorrow

the 1.32 now becomes a very important short term level. Why? It's the closest round number and price was clearly kept under it today. So as a trader where are you going to be looking tomorrow? The high of yesterday and the near round number 1.32. That isn't magic, that is just market behavior. So we need something to go by, and now...
Mike haven't seen comments like this from you part for a long time, I'm referring to the mindset approach, that everyone should acquire to have.

Or maybe I didn't listen to careful to the sound of the music LOL

Try not to let the cat out of the bag next time (just kidding)

all the best!!
  • #84,637
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:56pm Jan 5, 2011 4:56pm
First page post. Great stuff.

Quoting mbqb11
Hey C

What do your rules say?...
  • #84,638
  • Jan 5, 2011 5:07pm Jan 5, 2011 5:07pm
I couldn't resist . . .
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #84,639
  • Jan 5, 2011 5:08pm Jan 5, 2011 5:08pm
Quoting jarroo
I couldn't resist . . .
Will you trade it then?
  • #84,640
  • Jan 5, 2011 5:10pm Jan 5, 2011 5:10pm
Quoting Adilius07
Will you trade it then?

Maybe . .


You know I like those previous bar Highs on BUOBs.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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