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Nb 1.0 trend trade system

  • #361
  • Jan 5, 2011 9:20am Jan 5, 2011 9:20am
As most pairs' TMA and 240MA converge and volatility spike indcators are no longer reliable.
  • #362
  • Jan 5, 2011 9:25am Jan 5, 2011 9:25am
Quoting maxwell-eqtn
Looks like a Good Idea....!!
Me too was it LG thread , the 4 hr system
  • #363
  • Jan 5, 2011 9:29am Jan 5, 2011 9:29am
You are correct. However, I got a suggestion to overcome that. See posted chart.


Quoting Wally1953
Woke up to lots of losses this morning.

So I think with a little discretion, instead of following indicators blindly, we can filter a lot of bad entries.

I think a lot of these pairs are going into a major trend change, which seems pretty obvious on these charts with the TMA closing in on the 240. A good time to sit tight and get ready to trade in the new direction.

Also, from now on, I'll be watching the angle of the TMA to be sloping in the direction I want to trade before I turn the EA on.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TMA_NB_02.PNG Size: 35 KB
  • #364
  • Jan 5, 2011 9:30am Jan 5, 2011 9:30am
Trading live for pennies along with a demo account for comparison. Entries were according to the rules and sustained losses. Not a problem as this is for pennies. My problem is that I can't get a handle on how to judge the effectiveness of trades with the lines moving so much when they are dragged down (or up). In more than one case, the trade that appeared to be a good one at the time and was taken now is not on the chart because the pair went the opposite way and by quite a bit. The losers would not necessarily show up with a visual back test, whereas only the winners would. I'm aware of how the lines move and why and am not dissing the system. Just making an observation that any visual back testing of this would not be effective.
  • #365
  • Jan 5, 2011 9:36am Jan 5, 2011 9:36am
Another suggestion would be to include another band between the outer band and the middle band of the TMA. We could call the added band the "New Band". Now when the blue middle band goes above or below the "New Band" that will give us a better determination of angle of middle TMA line. This will possibly give use a better and early trend direction.

Hey Bob !
Let me know what you think of this. I have tested it and it seems to eliminate the fake entries especially when the middle band is reversing directions.


Quoting dryclean
Me too was it LG thread , the 4 hr system
  • #366
  • Jan 5, 2011 9:43am Jan 5, 2011 9:43am
Yes, I too had nearly all of my trades hit SL. Only one hit TP. Still have 2 open with 1 close to SL and the other hovering around BE. Every one of those trades was taken contrary to the TMA angle, that is, buying while pointed down, etc. Certainly it would limit the trades by only taking signals with the direction of TMA angle but may eliminate a lot of potential losses. Then the question is: When, and would you want to, take countertrend trades with the TMA angle? All of the losses I had would have been nice countertrend winners. And then what if TMA is flat? I guess it's not quite clear sailing yet.
  • #367
  • Jan 5, 2011 10:15am Jan 5, 2011 10:15am
haha, 93pips, im done today (i wake up a little late, otherwise u can open a better entry than mine)

gu +37
ej +21+35
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: t7.png Size: 11 KB
  • #368
  • Jan 5, 2011 10:18am Jan 5, 2011 10:18am
Quoting boomslang
haha, 93pips, im done today (i wake up a little late, otherwise u can open a better entry than mine)

gu +37
ej +21+35
Just use the two sides trading method with the expected tp i mentioned before.

Good luck
  • #369
  • Jan 5, 2011 10:54am Jan 5, 2011 10:54am
Quoting Syahmi
Hi folks...

Using Bollinger Bands as an added filter...

Buy above SD1 & Sell below SD1


Cheers !
How much different are they in real time than looking back at a historical chart? As I see it, the only trades for the time period shown on the chart would have been short trades and the bollinger bands don't look like they would be much different than the trades taken based on the rules of this system.
  • #370
  • Jan 5, 2011 10:56am Jan 5, 2011 10:56am
Quoting ericjschroed
Yes, I too had nearly all of my trades hit SL....
This. I had plenty of losses last night demoing this system, and when I took the trades I was initially extremely leery thanks to the seeming fact that the entire market is reversing right now, and darn near every single trend is changing. I took them anyway, and ended up with a handful of bad trades that were stopped out.

I think Eric's statement is probably the smartest to help filter out bad trades - don't trade contrary to the TMA angle. It'll keep you from getting caught in trend reversals. Also, reading the chart is kind of important - like I said above, the angles were all wrong, the market seemed like it was reversing on its head, and the stars just weren't lining up right to make me feel good about any of those trades.
  • #371
  • Jan 5, 2011 10:57am Jan 5, 2011 10:57am
I've observed the same thing - when trend direction changes as abruptly as it did today, the system gets decimated.

I agree - what it calls for is a bit of discretion - if in a UT you see the TMA take a plunge towards the weekly, sit back and wait for the new direction to be established before wading back into the market.

I don't necessarily see it as a deficiency of the system - Nanningbob's definition of a trend is necessarily narrow, which is precisely what makes it tradeable (the more discretionary a definition is, the less useful it becomes). But as said before, you just need to exercise some discretion on whether a downward-headed TMA is still a UT even though it is above the weekly.
  • #372
  • Jan 5, 2011 11:13am Jan 5, 2011 11:13am
ok enough of this garbage. Unless you have 10 vouches you aint posting for now. Too my friends who have seen my systems and dont have 10 vouches I am sorry but I am taking over control of my thread. Like I said before most experienced traders dont start trading until the middle of January so all your observations and changes are garbage for now. Sorry but this is enough. I am going back to bed thank you.
  • #373
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:48pm Jan 5, 2011 4:48pm
Lots of sympathy my friend. I know how you feel.

  • #374
  • Jan 5, 2011 5:00pm Jan 5, 2011 5:00pm
Sorry I reacted so strongly but we havent really started trading this yet. This isnt a who can post the most changes or post the most indicators contest. The system works but you are going to take losing trades, have losing days losing weeks and maybe even losing months (I doubt that one) Two beautiful trades happened yesterday that wiped out all my SL I want to show them to you before everyone gets all involved in changing things. The first is the gbp/cad for 150 pips, the second eur/cad for 215 pips. That 365 pips coved all my SL and made a profit to boot.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp cad.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur cad.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #375
  • Jan 5, 2011 5:03pm Jan 5, 2011 5:03pm
School restarts to day and I have to give finals to my university students. When you see the lines converging obviously you need to use digression with the trades. I have to go to work and then will release this thread later.
  • #376
  • Jan 5, 2011 5:53pm Jan 5, 2011 5:53pm
Someone emailed me this note and I found it insightful. This is what we will be looking for once prices start separating again.

I find it very interesting how many of the pairs are currently exhibiting converging 240/TMA midlines. It has felt like we are heading toward some major inflections for a good while now, so I am highly anticipating joining some young trends w/ the aid of your system. The first notable pullbacks after the crossovers seem to offer some excellent entries. So, kinda lickin' my chops here http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif
  • #377
  • Jan 5, 2011 5:56pm Jan 5, 2011 5:56pm
OK I switched the thread to people who have at least one vouch. As I just posted in the last post we are at convergence almost across the board lets let price dictate how we are going to trade. We are not here to reinvent the wheel but to learn a system. I do want to add some kind of convergence/divergence indicator and I am looking at the three posed so far.
  • #378
  • Edited 9:29pm Jan 5, 2011 9:05pm | Edited 9:29pm
Quoting maninjapan
tough first day on the demo.... got hosed by the GBP pairs. (Took all of them). Would never take that many on a real account though.....

NB, do you intend to take into account fundamental

Just a thought on exits, Im guessing most people are starting this on minimum size (myself included) so this may prove difficult, but it could be possible to see an increase in profits by taking off half the position at the middle TMA line, and then trailing stop the rest. A lot of trend follow systems make their money in those big one way (albeit rare) moves....

You can use this strategy if the TMA line is diverging from the 240MA line but I wouldnt do it while they are converging. Since almost all pairs are converging right now and may change trend direction I wouldnt do that but the diverging lines may give a great clue to staying with the trend long term. Taking half profit and then reentering again later after another pullback would piggy back the trade and profits. This way you have a chance at the runners. The only thing I would like to do is compare taking all profit and reentering and compare that with taking half and letting it run. My view in the past is taking all profit was more profitable but I didnt have any kind of indicator that allowed me to read a stay in the trade like we may have now. Wont know until we get a definite trend read.
  • #379
  • Jan 5, 2011 9:18pm Jan 5, 2011 9:18pm
Obviously I over reacted yesterday and I am sorry more likely caused by all the pressure I have getting school opened but not ready. So I apologize for my outburst. Need to slow this down though, please demo for now and wait for the markets to get back in their groove. We will come up with insights to trading when the markets are changing trends which appears they are doing. Amazing that so many are doing it at once though.
  • #380
  • Jan 6, 2011 12:48am Jan 6, 2011 12:48am
Quoting nanningbob
OK I switched the thread to people who have at least one vouch. As I just posted in the last post we are at convergence almost across the board lets let price dictate how we are going to trade. We are not here to reinvent the wheel but to learn a system. I do want to add some kind of convergence/divergence indicator and I am looking at the three posed so far.

I can feel a change in the markets over the last few day at the moment Gold has gone down almost a 1000 points. Dollar strength seems to be returning to the markets. maybe this is finally it for gold?

what do you think?
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