AUD/USD

hi there..

my thought for Aussie

previous p:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3583

lol, is kinda interesting to watch you guys discussing about this pair going up or down...... but any clues where will this pair going down till?

There's a strong support at 1.0090, if it breaks that support it will definitely reach the low of 27 Dec. of 0.9987.

And I'm wishing it'll break that 0.9987 too so we can say hello to hell.

In any case, I don't think it's time for AUD to have more value than USD. Just not.

well, actually, i am pretty sure this little girl can dive more than that, people in my company(where i work at), start to questioning if EURO can hold for the first quater... not only that, with all these situation now, aussie is over-priced, we all know that aussie isnt a safe-haven...... i am looking more on longer view...

correct...

watch this 3 main gate 0.9980-0.98450-0.9740 then easyly 0.94 if this week close below than 0.98450 n next week break 0.9740 then at least 0.94 till feb 20,2011 is there....cheers

g

If it keeps going down, that's fine with me, I'm on short since 1.0160.

Morning all,

Just to say quickly (have to go to job) that all short positions are closed with 174 pips for the two lots taking a drawdown of 16 pips and 134 pips for the last lot with a drawdown of 6 pips.

See you at New York session. (Please excuse for those asked me some questions, we will discuss later).

Have a nice day all.

Very nice numbers Grashid !

Back from a great holiday, and attempting a long right here.

i'm looking for a buy around parity lets see if it gets there

Yeah, around there could be the good spot, i would go well with a classic fib reaction too.
I did take 20 odd from this long.

Being long now, is very risky, Aussie is falling fast... this day is that kind of day when you should consider the trend a friend

Not sure but the flooding of the coal mining industry could be a reason: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1225979046180

Parity would be a reasonable guess.

Hello everybody......

Hi Bskwak1124 ...how're you, friend ? remember me ?

News on China could be helping the drop

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...sters-say.html

Where do you think this bounce up will end?

1.0150 ?
1.0130 ?
1.0113 ?

Thanks,

I think 1.0105

regards

Suppose, the "Pump & Dump" scenario starts with the PUMP first!...now its time for the DUMP!
Like they stated previously, Hedgies, Institutions have well bailed out...its Mr Joe Public who is left holding!

Well highlighted today to sell into any rallies, especially if it hits 1.0200..which we will be lucky to see again.
I have a target closer to 0.8600-0.8900.


The Australian's Scott Murdoch spoke to five top strategists on the outlook for 2011...The participants:
GARETH BERRY: currency strategist, UBS
GREG GIBBS: currency strategist, Royal Bank of Scotland
JEREMY HALE: managing director, global macro strategy, Citigroup
JOHN HORNER: currency strategist, Deutsche Bank
NICK SOCRATOUS: head of global foreign exchange, HSBC Bank, Australia

GIVEN the current domestic and global economic foundations, what is fair value for the Australian dollar?

BERRY: We expect (that) . . . the dollar will fall to US97c in a month, and continue its descent towards US93c in three months' time. We expect this will be largely driven by US dollar strength rather than any surprises on the domestic Australian economic front.

GIBBS: The International Monetary Fund estimated the Australian dollar at 5-15 per cent overvalued in a report in October based on some long-term macro models. The dollar in real effective terms is around a three-decade high, so arguably it has factored in many of the positive fundamentals.

HALE: We use our World Exchange Rate Model (WERM) to produce an augmented Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) estimate of US83c. As a result, at a reference spot of US97.9c, the Australian dollar is around 18 per cent above this measure of fair value.

HORNER: Our models have fair value for the dollar as currently around US90c, so we see the current level of Australian dollar/US dollar as somewhat stretched.

SOCRATOUS: The IMF's implied PPP conversion rate for $A/US is 1.48 for 2009, meaning the Australian dollar/US dollar rate is US68c.

http://twurl.nl/paef5e

......two possible senario ...a buy...and a sell....

will update details later. In the mean time....

1- check yr indis of any possible whipsaw like EURUSD did yesterday.
2- check if Aust/China could make possible any sudden moves..wtever within 25m from now.

While waiting for that let me have a puff or two...

brb