AUD/USD

looks like we'll be seeing highs then...hedge funds are really moving for liquidation or nulling there open positions for accounting purposes.. very few hedges really "invests" in speculative currencies they mostly use them as hedges.. and seeing the performances of these funds.. over the past 5 years Id rather not track them.

Jan 04, 23:00 Factory Orders Previous = -0.9% (Forecast -0.1%) If decrease as predicted SELL AU. Place SL far away coz Aust RBA Commodity Indx SDR (YoY) Previous = 44.4% and todate is 48.0% (This is a BUY for AU but... it has only LOW IMPACT compare to USA Factory Orders which is MEDIUM IMPACT).

That' is a preparation incase there is a whipsaw.

..... building longs positions around 1.0068/1.0129 /1.0157

If it is a SELL.. they're trading against U.

..her WITOUT LIMITS..NOW !

Thank you. That was my first real win trade in AUD/USD for a total of 480 pips in 3 lots and with a drawdown of a total of 38 pips for the all 3 lots. I have to say that i entered that trade for more learning than searching for profit. If both are here, that is better. I can not learn without real money.

If i have more knowledge about this pair, i could work with a very tight stop using my favorite margin stop money management with which i work better, and return on investment will be huge compared to what i won, specially when swinging and pyramiding at fixed plan levels. Maybe later with Aussie when i hope know more about its personality.

As i realize before, this is a very very difficult pair to trade. Now i'm flat and wait and see for a better opportunity. Some one said that you does not need to fish all what swims in the lake to be successfull. Some opportunities could cover more than you expect.

My first method is not believing in a trend. That will give me a false idea and stopped me to apply Stop and reverse technique for example, or trying to define wich next top/bottom will be and maybe when. The most important is the move itself and the volatility which goes with.

For that top, there were many resistances that you can see and calculate (extension FIB, Resistance TL, final target of AB=CD on daily, R2 PP daily and others). The more there are barriers, the more probability is to have a top instead of a range.

For pyramiding, the height of the range, the missing of a real top in that range and above all in, VSA gave me the best indication in that trade, but seen i don't know yet very well aussie, i prefered add only one lot instead of 4.

Decision to exit was taken regarding combination of ADX and EMA plus S1 PP, and most important the target of number of pips i decide to take if the trade is a winning one, seen i was not in front of my computer to distinguish change in market conditions, even i could expect that aussie could drop more than parity. But for a first real test, i'm happy, even i need to study again and again when i am in calm, every behavior during the slope and during the rising.

Remember, nothing is sure in trading until you close your trades.


Hope i answered you question.

While waiting for her moves...be patience..It will be like yesterday...i guess...watch whipsaw..

Will update further....

Previous -0.9% (Actual Positive 7.0%) - A SELL to AU !

Each time in the last few years since it went above 0.8600..it has come back down to 0.8600 within 3/4 months...barring 2008, it took 7 months.
It will be 7 months on 19th February 2011 since it has touched 0.8600!

Target 0.8600-0.8900

Hi mate! of course i remember you mate! i am doing great! how you doing so far? btw is kinda a bit late, happy new year to you and everybody in FF!

Price Projections
---------------
UP - 1.0101 / 1.0157 / 1.0176
DWN - 1.0007 / 0.9888 / 0.9789

Possible Targets
---------------
Longs - 1.0126 / 1.0144
Shorts - Use the Price Projections DwnMoves as Targets.

Hi ! thanks 2u too..whole nite ws thinkn how u came out wit tht long term projections w/o seeing her daily moves..but never mind..juz do wt u must to share.

fyi ...my projections is base after seeing her daily moves.

...its nice to hear u talkn again...me came bck..couldn't resist the temptation n the fun in ths forum. trade well, my friend.

Hi mate, i am not saying your building is wrong, like i said before, i am not a great scalper, everytime i try/tried to scalp, i lost more than i earn. So i am building more on fundamentals, the reason why i went short is the news (bloomberg, CNBC, etc), every euro's session open, they will(everytime i see) will talk about will Euro hold this first quater or what so ever. This seems to me, there are more s*** things are going on in euro. The only reason why the factory orders went up, thanks to the festive season.... so this first quater will reveal some pictures....

cheers mate

Short postioning by traders has dropped to 2.4 shorts to every long. This is down from over 4 to 1 just a couple of days ago. As more shorts surrender and flip long, it will aid the further drop of the Aussie. This down move will likley last until we get a ratio under 2 to 1. Not always, though. Retail postioning is just an indicator.... but from a long term perspective it is one of the best!

Regards,

Hope you had a great holiday! indeed mate, so much fun in this forum. you too, hope this year will be your year. Cheers

People still dreaming about 1.0200... which was 150 pips ago...

Thanks FX-Petra !...Keep us update. Thank u once again..(still consider tht ratio need 2b careful).

From -0.9% ---> 7.0% (This is outstanding. Congrate USA !)

In this case don't bother abt R&S while watching her doing her job.. Juz put your STOP LOSS farrr awayyy..... incase she plays tht whipsaw most likely bcoz of OPEN ORDERS. (This is one of the most likely reason why EURUSD behave in such a way ystrdy).

Two or THREE hours later . then ..u decide whether to REVISE TP or to get out with PROFITs or take out some...wtever...

Then u start to trade normally wit yr indis, etc.

Will updates charts in moment..

PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT DICTATE FUTURE RESULTS !!! in case u didnt know,....

We are far away from the baboons area (1.0164-1.0151). Not too worry anymore on the upper level but....

(1.0064-1.0049)... is the SNAKES WITH 7HEADS AREA. Don't start building shorts/longs in this area....There're so many snakes in there....waiting.. and pull u up and down till yr account bleedsss...