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  • #353,101
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:03am Dec 28, 2010 11:03am
Just a heads up, the ECB failed to desentisise Bond purchases fully for the first time since June, in effect the ECB is adding cash to the money supply (something the FED does constantly) for the first time in 6 months.

There is no uptake from anyone to drain the cash out of the system, bids failed miserably. The ECB in effect added 13Bn in cash today to the supply side.

There is another round early in Jan, if it fails again we are looking at sub 1.18 in Jan, and parity shortly thereafter.

Enjoy

Europe is in deep doodah, and you guys need to keep a very close eye on ECB auctions in Jan. At this rate the ECB is adding cash to the supply side faster then anyone could have fathomed. Who cares about the FED, they could print trillions and the dollar won't budge when the ECB screws it up so majorly. 2-3 failures on the supply side will have disastrous effects and would take months to rectify.
  • #353,102
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:07am Dec 28, 2010 11:07am
Quoting TexasforEX
Looks to me like the daily low is in place. Market will probably "Chop, Chop" until Asia.

But then again, during thin market madness, the skinny part of the bell curve gets alot fatter.
we have all the time in the world its a matter of time, h1 we did close below 20 its a good sign lets see
  • #353,103
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:08am Dec 28, 2010 11:08am
Quoting alexxi
i actualy made the mistake of buyingat 1.313

a newbies mistake, second time i make the same mistake instead of waiting for it to finish dropping especially when trend and majority experts outlook is for the euro to keep going down in the near future

now i guess i will have to wait till the asian markets for it to pull back up and not lose any money... hope so anyway
Alexxi: The trend is your friend. Never trade against the trend unless you're an experienced scalper. Not to worry, youve gotten the heads up of 1.2800 - make sure you get out atleast 10 pips before that.
  • #353,104
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:08am Dec 28, 2010 11:08am
with the ecb failing so much... i wonder, how much the chinese will care to help when they see they're spoiling a noob.
  • #353,105
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:10am Dec 28, 2010 11:10am
Quoting Mr Hatch
with the ecb failing so much... i wonder, how much the chinese will care to help when they see they're spoiling a noob.

Today was a clear signal that none of the big players is interested in euros. China would do well focusing locally. This would be a great time for China to raise another notch, free money for them. All eyes on Germany now.
  • #353,106
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:11am Dec 28, 2010 11:11am
Quoting cloggie
Just a heads up, the ECB failed to desentisise Bond purchases fully for the first time since June, in effect the ECB is adding cash to the money supply (something the FED does constantly) for the first time in 6 months.

There is no uptake from anyone to drain the cash out of the system, bids failed miserably. The ECB in effect added 13Bn in cash today to the supply side.

There is another round early in Jan, if it fails again we are looking at sub 1.18 in Jan, and parity shortly thereafter.

Enjoy

Europe...
i thought we will see 118 the end of jan , this way it will be sooner
  • #353,107
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:11am Dec 28, 2010 11:11am
Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD, Weekly, 2010 December 27.jpg Size: 285 KB
  • #353,108
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:11am Dec 28, 2010 11:11am
Quoting kill56
i thought we will see 118 the end of jan , this way it will be sooner

I am eyeballing 2935 in the next few days at this rate. The ECB buys debt but has to take the cash out of the supply side to balance the money supply, if it can't do that the euro will devalue rapidly, basic supply and demand, they are artificially inflating the supply side for the first time in six months.
  • #353,109
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:12am Dec 28, 2010 11:12am
Quoting Hda
Alexxi: The trend is your friend. Never trade against the trend unless you're an experienced scalper. Not to worry, youve gotten the heads up of 1.2800 - make sure you get out atleast 10 pips before that.
sorry im jumping mate.. but I think it is not FAIR to ask anyone to hold or exit position, WITHOUT asking on size of account, position and his MM..

As I remember Yesterday you ask few members to stay short when EU jump up to 1.328 [150pips above the level you were]

so.. next time mate.. just ask them.. today advice is very cheap.. you think ??
  • #353,110
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:13am Dec 28, 2010 11:13am
Quoting cloggie
Today was a clear signal that none of the big players is interested in euros. China would do well focusing locally. This would be a great time for China to raise another notch, free money for them. All eyes on Germany now.
let me give you an additional idea... the germans insist on a transaction tax. the guy in the wheelchair does... and he starts to behave like a kid in the supermarket if he doesn't get what he wants. spoiled brat...

in reminiscence of the ez
Inserted Video
  • #353,111
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:15am Dec 28, 2010 11:15am
Quoting Mr Hatch
let me give you an additional idea... the germans insist on a transaction tax. the guy in the wheelchair does... and he starts to behave like a kid in the supermarket if he doesn't get what he wants. spoiled brat...

Germany is propping up the euro and that is not going to change, however with today's news the appetite for helping the neighbours could well wane. China increasing rates slowing down the housing bubble over there would have a direct effect on German exports, the ECB not being able to balance its books also has a great effect on German exports, not a good knock on effect for the biggest economy in the EU.
  • #353,112
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:16am Dec 28, 2010 11:16am
Quoting cloggie
Just a heads up, the ECB failed to desentisise Bond purchases fully for the first time since June, in effect the ECB is adding cash to the money supply (something the FED does constantly) for the first time in 6 months.

There is no uptake from anyone to drain the cash out of the system, bids failed miserably. The ECB in effect added 13Bn in cash today to the supply side.

There is another round early in Jan, if it fails again we are looking at sub 1.18 in Jan, and parity shortly thereafter.

Enjoy...
Thanks for the news , some told before build America bond expiry on 31 dec & 15th january I noted but today unaware about the effects & so closed shorts midway ,took a long & left . anyway heavy movements in such dull holiday should trouble some ,

usdx pullback should be over or soon & expecting the way it come the way go & even it dare enough to hit tl 80.84 should more down than expected .hope not now .
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #353,113
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:16am Dec 28, 2010 11:16am
Quoting alexxi
i actualy made the mistake of buyingat 1.313

a newbies mistake, second time i make the same mistake instead of waiting for it to finish dropping especially when trend and majority experts outlook is for the euro to keep going down in the near future

now i guess i will have to wait till the asian markets for it to pull back up and not lose any money... hope so anyway
Alexxi: If you are going to trade a retrace, it is very important to note the major support and resistance levels. The reward is greater when you trade in the direction of the trend. I respectfully recommend that you develop the habit of trading in the direction of the trend.
  • #353,114
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:16am Dec 28, 2010 11:16am
Quoting Piters
sorry im jumping mate.. but I think it is not FAIR to ask anyone to hold or exit position, WITHOUT asking on size of account, position and his MM..

As I remember Yesterday you ask few members to stay short when EU jump up to 1.328 [150pips above the level you were]

so.. next time mate.. just ask them.. today advice is very cheap.. you think ??
Quoting The Fool
so....forexpro30 and hda are the same writer? sound the same and showed up at the same time?
Hrmmmmmmmmm
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #353,115
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:16am Dec 28, 2010 11:16am
Quoting cloggie
I am eyeballing 2935 in the next few days at this rate. The ECB buys debt but has to take the cash out of the supply side to balance the money supply, if it can't do that the euro will devalue rapidly, basic supply and demand, they are artificially inflating the supply side for the first time in six months.
lol with cable going to 15000's and eur 12900's it will be a great year end unless some body still looking for smelly fingers
  • #353,116
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:17am Dec 28, 2010 11:17am
Quoting fontu
Thanks for the news , some told before build America bond expiry on 31 dec & 15th january I noted but today unaware about the effects & so closed shorts midway . anyway heavy movements in such dull holiday should trouble some ,
fontu

Unless the ECB finds a way next week to take the cash out, pretty much keep selling the rallies with one eye on the news wires. Under normal circumstances European QE is vastly different to US QE, untill today.
  • #353,117
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:18am Dec 28, 2010 11:18am
Quoting kill56
lol with cable going to 15000's and eur 12900's it will be a great year end unless some body still looking for smelly fingers

Cable is a fundamental story in itself with the government borrowing at its highest montly level for decades, the market wants to know if this is a blip. Expect lots of volatility when the boys are back next week. The FI boys will drive both these currencies for the next few weeks.

I said a few days ago that I would welcome some drastic fundamental news, like Dubai last year, and here it is.

Ah well, that's my contribution for the day, signing of again. Keep an eye on Bloomy/Reuters news feeds over the next few days if you are trading. Fundamentally the trend is now solidly down, just watch the technicals for your trade ideas. Let's see if someone can track down Tricky-T tomorrow for a comment or two.
  • #353,118
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:21am Dec 28, 2010 11:21am
Quoting Magix
Hrmmmmmmmmm
I know.. Spooky??!?..
  • #353,119
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:23am Dec 28, 2010 11:23am
Quoting apt
I am with you. But probably even lower. 1.3050 - 1.3070 range.
Just closed my short run from 3216 to 3126. I've been silently watching and reading while trading forex. I started trading at the beginning of this month, but have been studying for months prior to entering the real arena.

Just wanted to say you guys are fantastic. I'm in no means a position to be giving advise, but as I get better I'll try to start contributing.



Cheers,
  • #353,120
  • Dec 28, 2010 11:24am Dec 28, 2010 11:24am
Quoting Piters
sorry im jumping mate.. but I think it is not FAIR to ask anyone to hold or exit position, WITHOUT asking on size of account, position and his MM..

As I remember Yesterday you ask few members to stay short when EU jump up to 1.328 [150pips above the level you were]

so.. next time mate.. just ask them.. today advice is very cheap.. you think ??
Piters: You are absolutely correct. In private I emailed wannaberich explaining all those issues to him with reference to account size and risk tolerance. My trade went against me 150 pips, before I entered short at 1.3270 with a second lot to cover the 150pip draw down which in turn paid of with a hefty green of $13,500.

Wannaberich is a scalper and position traders are of the understanding that to be a position trader, you must have a high risk tolerance. 1.2800 as I mentioned yesterday is the psychological level and my exit is 1.2810

On the way down i will be scaling in and out of the trade, holding 1.3270 and the last lot to exit at 1.2810
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