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  • #352,661
  • Dec 27, 2010 4:47pm Dec 27, 2010 4:47pm
Quoting gatorinla
in a range... those tl's. lie
Thanks , but can you elaborate???
  • #352,662
  • Dec 27, 2010 4:52pm Dec 27, 2010 4:52pm
what do you think of this chart?

short at 1.32; very strong resistance (horizontal and diagonal resistance lines). for the next weeks i think 1.24 can be reached, but i take care about this article:



BRUSSELS (Reuters, DS) - China is willing to transfer part of its massive foreign exchange reserves to invest in government bonds of weaker euro countries. But that is not charity.

Investors in January in a crash of the euro have been warned to speculate. Not only the European Union single currency will defend tooth and nail, even wealthy Chinese to help a new speculative attack on the euro area to repel.

"We are ready for the euro area countries to assist the financial crisis to overcome their economic recovery and success. Europe in the future one of our key markets to meet our cash reserves to invest, "said the spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday.

2650 one billion

Beijing's support means in practice that the country both in euros and will continue to buy European bonds. And that's a promise that can count. Since China routinely executes more goods than imports, Brazil has a huge financial firepower. The value of Chinese currency mountain now swollen to 2,650 billion, of which about one quarter in euros.

The chances are high that speculators are becoming in her scratching. "This is a Christmas present for the euro. There are many players speculating on a fall in the euro and a large short position enter the new year. But if you know that the Chinese continue to support the region, as a speculator not want those positions are left, "responded currency traders yesterday.

It is not the first time that the Chinese state that they continue to support the euro countries. In October, Premier Wen Jiabao announced Greek bonds to buy. He also announced major investments in Greece, including in the shipping, the strategic port of Piraeus and tourism.

And last week, the Chinese also promised financial support Portugal. Thus Portuguese newspaper Jornal de Negócios reported recently that the Chinese central bank in the first quarter of 2011 for 4 to 5 billion in bonds to buy Portuguese. That would amount to one third of the financing needed to Portugal in April 2011.

Not charity

The Chinese aid is not charity to Europe: the European Union (EU) is China's largest trading partner. Bilateral trade between the two economic blocs is already 330 billion euros. Beijing therefore has an interest in the economy in the eurozone continues to run well.

Not only because European consumers have more buying power to keep buying Chinese export products, but also because the collapse of the euro area will automatically lead to a series muntdevaluaties. What the Chinese exporters would be hit twice: lower revenues from Europe, and earnings are worth less. And that might well lead to instability within China itself, which Beijing wants to avoid at all costs.

In addition to the Chinese, who until recently, massive foreign exchange reserves were reinvested in U.S. government bonds, in any case less dependent on the dollar and the sharp fluctuations in U.S. currency. Increased investment in the euro area fits perfectly in their diversification strategy.

Trojan Horse

Yet the critics still question whether Europe should be happy now as the Christmas wishes from Beijing. Because hiding behind the Chinese pragmatism in their geopolitical motives are also clear. The more European government bonds in Europe, the Chinese buy up the greater their influence in the countries concerned. Beijing may be able at any time by selling pressure from Greek and Portuguese government bonds.

And that's not the only leverage. With the billions of euros of investment in the Greek merchant fleet and the strategic port of Piraeus - who will be a hub of Chinese exports - the Chinese will soon get a grip on even the most important economic gateways to Europe.

And while many European bedrijven already dependent on Beijing for the supply of rare earth metals - necessary for the production of high technology (DS October 30) - and increasingly strategic companies in Europe in Chinese hands risk.

Think of the recent bid by the mysterious Chinese Xinmao Group in the Dutch kabelmaker Draka, which includes supplying the U.S. military.
SOURCE: http://www.standaard.be/artikel/deta...kelid=QH346KSV (dutch, belgian news)



how do you think about this article?
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  • #352,663
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:05pm Dec 27, 2010 5:05pm
Quoting jamanja
what do you think of this chart?

short at 1.32; very strong resistance (horizontal and diagonal resistance lines). for the next weeks i think 1.24 can be reached, but i take care about this article:
I think this logic is a big part of the reason why a lot of traders lose their accounts. Sitting waiting for price to touch a trendline to take a position, and then have it run wildly against them.

If you are of the mind that price is going to that place on the chart, wouldn't it make more sense to take longs and let them carry to that line, and exit a portion of your position there and wait for rejection, rather than having a predetermined idea that market will Miracously turn because there is a line on the chart?

Maybe you are right this time...but will you be the next?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #352,664
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:06pm Dec 27, 2010 5:06pm
Quoting gh0stjpy
Thanks , but can you elaborate???
tl are based on a clock.. they say we will be at a certain place at a certain time. generally they work well. but if you look at any chart tl are broken all the time. this does not mean the trend has changed. sometimes they are broken when the level of the pair has not gone above or below the level indicated by the tl. sometimes the pair moves faster or slower in time. so just saying a tl is broken is not always as it appears. it needs to be broken and in addition the level has to change in agreement. your still just under the level on your chart.(3168) the same place we were before hitting the tl or even lower. so the value of the pair has changed little.. time has made the pair hit the tl. not the price of the pair. you need them to agree.. for a real trend break.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #352,665
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:08pm Dec 27, 2010 5:08pm
I see it this way,for people to buy stuff they need money,and no bailouts or bond selling,wont change it.The only thing Europe needs now is investors who gonna create and build jobs here not in China,And thats why lower currency is essential for the kick start.
  • #352,666
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:12pm Dec 27, 2010 5:12pm
What are you all doing here? dont you believe in holiday? sitting in Germany, having a ball!!!
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #352,667
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:23pm Dec 27, 2010 5:23pm
Quoting Magix
I think this logic is a big part of the reason why a lot of traders lose their accounts. Sitting waiting for price to touch a trend line to take a position, and then have it run wildly against them.

If you are of the mind that price is going to that place on the chart, wouldn't it make more sense to take longs and let them carry to that line, and exit a portion of your position there and wait for rejection, rather than having a predetermined idea that market will Miraculously turn because there is a line on the chart?

Maybe you are right this...
I have made that mistake -- good point ill save this note.
  • #352,668
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:25pm Dec 27, 2010 5:25pm
Quoting ForexTreeGuy
I have made that mistake -- good point ill save this note.
Been guilty of doing the same...Assumptions can really hand you your ass in a hurry and once you get involved in this logic, what typically follows is scaling trades.

Compound the bad trade by adding to the misery until the margin bell rings...

There are a lot of great ways to trade...these are typically not them...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #352,669
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:26pm Dec 27, 2010 5:26pm
Quoting skozyuk
You guys are "brave" trading now. Personally I'm staying out till January 3rd, hit my monthly goal before Christmas, no need to risk anymore than necessary.
More like crazy...
  • #352,670
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:41pm Dec 27, 2010 5:41pm
Quoting fxvoilaaa
More like crazy...
more like following pa. and trading the more probable.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #352,671
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:44pm Dec 27, 2010 5:44pm
Quoting Magix
I think this logic is a big part of the reason why a lot of traders lose their accounts. Sitting waiting for price to touch a trendline to take a position, and then have it run wildly against them.

If you are of the mind that price is going to that place on the chart, wouldn't it make more sense to take longs and let them carry to that line, and exit a portion of your position there and wait for rejection, rather than having a predetermined idea that market will Miracously turn because there is a line on the chart?

Maybe you are right this time...but...

learned that the 4th day i traded, basically i went long and euro started dropping, and i made the classic newbie mistake of holding on...

lost what i made in the my 27 first trades and it took me more than a week to get even again.

but i would like to believe that i am a fast learner and thanks god i am in profit again!
  • #352,672
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:45pm Dec 27, 2010 5:45pm
the nibbling process has just started at 3172, and i doubt they will give up until they eroded that area.
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  • #352,673
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:50pm Dec 27, 2010 5:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
more like following pa. and trading the more probable.
watch out, with the central banks of Asia ... they might have some magic up their sleeves.

They have been aggresivaly buying Euro and selling USD/JPY.

what if the central banks over there and using the thin market to buy up the price for a better position to go short in the new year? just saying, that 'instant' movement is what I would be cautious of, wouldn't be surprised to see a 300 pip move one or two days in the upcoming weeks.

If we make it past 3200, and stops trigger, that might be in invite for the 'return of the pigs'.
  • #352,674
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:52pm Dec 27, 2010 5:52pm
Quoting mikej2010
watch out, with the central banks of Asia ... they might have some magic up their sleeves.

They have been aggresivaly buying Euro and selling USD/JPY.

what if the central banks over there and using the thin market to buy up the price for a better position to go short in the new year?...
that would be just awesome, wouldn't it?
i would be happy to get an invitation to short it higher.
  • #352,675
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:54pm Dec 27, 2010 5:54pm
Quoting mikej2010
watch out, with the central banks of Asia ... they might have some magic up their sleeves.

They have been aggresivaly buying Euro and selling USD/JPY.

what if the central banks over there and using the thin market to buy up the price for a better position to go short in the new year? just saying, that 'instant' movement is what I would be cautious of, wouldn't be surprised to see a 300 pip move one or two days in the upcoming weeks.

If we make it past 3200, and stops trigger, that might be in invite for the 'return of the pigs'.
lets hope one of those bankers is a memeber on this forum and will give us the heads up
  • #352,676
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:56pm Dec 27, 2010 5:56pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
that would be just awesome, wouldn't it?
i would be happy to get an invitation to short it higher.
yes it would be awesome, that is why I am keeping my larger short position, with a sl of 1.33 ... if we go past 1.32, I will watch the pa and probably short another lot atleast.

There is no way {imo} we are going above 1.35, and that is if we pass the barrier of 1.33.

These are very thin markets with over-exaggerated moves.

Like a pre-season game, and the 3rd stringers playing Defense. {3rd stringers being bears} ... but once the season starts back up. Time to play ball.
  • #352,677
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:56pm Dec 27, 2010 5:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
if we touch 3159 soon i will target a new high to 3190/91.. after pullback..
if we touch 58 im short. if we then touch 59 i close short on pullback.
i got a imperfect set up to 3288.. not a nut bet. but the formation is there.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #352,678
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:58pm Dec 27, 2010 5:58pm
Quoting mikej2010
yes it would be awesome, that is why I am keeping my larger short position, with a sl of 1.33 ... if we go past 1.32, I will watch the pa and probably short another lot atleast.

There is no way {imo} we are going above 1.35, and that is if we pass the barrier of 1.33.

These are very thin markets with over-exaggerated moves.

Like a pre-season game, and the 3rd stringers playing Defense. {3rd stringers being bears} ... but once the season starts back up. Time to play ball.
just do it, but don't forget to watch pa. but if we go through 3200, we will see 3300. when the holiday ends, everyone will be cheering and buying. look at the beginning of 2010.
  • #352,679
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:58pm Dec 27, 2010 5:58pm
Quoting alexxi
lets hope one of those bankers is a memeber on this forum and will give us the heads up
'Chinese/Asian' central banks .... American Hosted forums ... ha

Someones head will be on a pike if they spill the beans to us here.
  • #352,680
  • Dec 27, 2010 6:01pm Dec 27, 2010 6:01pm
Quoting mikej2010
watch out, with the central banks of Asia ... they might have some magic up their sleeves.

They have been aggresivaly buying Euro and selling USD/JPY.

what if the central banks over there and using the thin market to buy up the price for a better position to go short in the new year? just saying, that 'instant' movement is what I would be cautious of, wouldn't be surprised to see a 300 pip move one or two days in the upcoming weeks.

If we make it past 3200, and stops trigger, that might be in invite for the 'return of the pigs'.
well the banks did send a memo first. its why i went long earlier. did you get the memo? #352691
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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