EURUSD

I dunno Plat, I'm kinda looking forward to one world government and all - I think it sounds like fun - kinda like one big party...



hahaha...produced by Disney...the Illuminati bloodlines never end....

Christmas day was good fun after all, eaten and drank too much, actually sat through an entire episode of Eastenders!!?!?!! had to kiss granny and got thoroughly thrashed on Nintendo Wii by 12 year old nephew, but now keen to get back down to business, expecting very thin liquidity over the next few days, so i think scalping will be the name of the game.

Potential reversal setting up again, looking for a shake out below 29xx (purely based on technicals)...

EUR/USD is still in DOWN TREND

ORDO AB CHAO

what's your read on vsa malc?

H4 Important Price Levels for the coming Days

These are the Benchmarks from my trading terminal.

Without benchmarks there is no starting point.

EUR/USD 1.3116

EUR/JPY 1.0872

USD/JPY 82.90

USD/CAD 1.0066

GBP/USD 1.5441

USD/CHF 0.9618

AUD/USD 1.0042

XAU/USD $1,379.60 SPOT

SPX500 1257.90 SPOT

XAG/USD $29.29 SPOT

USOil $91.48 SPOT

US30 11,581 SPOT

Now we wait for news and reactions. Have a nice Sunday shopping.

Though there is chance of ranging next 2 ( or more ) weeks before real bounce keeping some relation to 1.3183 and from weekly tf tit for tat wicks formation it can be assumed that before any bounce attempt it should clear dues at lows , bear may continue first to the previous bottom 1.2967 & even continued down towards next bottom 1.2586. and if the last spike up force try hold up may good fail so early to continue down next so smooth.
anyway whatever happen next bounce may have the eyes to 1.3183 .
bear to work first continued or not ,next for bounce a bull to develop around 1.3075/66 ,failure continued bear down ( 1.3052 breaks & hold will take continued ) or lows to go up.
lets see what actually.
fontu

I am not giving a link because it is attached to a commercial service I use however the news is out there now through Reuters.

This news starts to have the market take positions and plan strategy just like I am now right in front of your eyes. The charts will reflect the movements as it happens. If the movements touch whatever Fibs or Resistance or Support then of course that will encourage directions and when the dust settles new chart patterns will be set.

Here is what is being said now in print by parties working in the markets which starts the changing of perceptions and reality since it is a REAL NEWS EVENT.

The surprise timing of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) increase in benchmark lending and deposit interest rates is likely to weigh on commodity markets when trading starts on Monday.
On Christmas Day, the PBOC raised rates by 25 basis points, the second rate rise in just over two months, part of a series of measures designed to combat inflation which hit a 28-month high of 5.1 percent in November.

The opportunity to cash in on prices at or near their highest in years before the year end could mean the correction this time may be greater than the losses following the last interest rate hike in October.
While the market expected China to raise rates, some investors had thought it was too late to move in 2010, and for that reason China's commodity markets may test their downside limits on Monday.
"This certainly doesn't spell the end of the commodities boom or the strong China story. It's a smart move that may have caught the market off guard," Mark Pervan, senior commodities analyst at ANZ said.
"This may give some impetus for some profit taking before the end of the year, and an opportunity to buy on dips." U.S. oil ended last week around a two-year high, above $91 per barrel while soybeans surged to a 27-month high, and copper flirted with record peaks.
Some analysts said after a lower open, markets could rebound and even hit new highs.
Because the rate hike was modest and overall the real deposit rates are still in the negative territory. Money supply was not tightened strictly enough, Gu Jianjun at Jinyuan Futures said.
Western markets, such as corn and soy futures on the Chicago Board of Trade, may be particularly choppy, as the kneejerk reaction to the rate move is accentuated by holiday-thinned volume.
When China last raised interest rates in mid-October, it sent the dollar higher, dragged gold down by more than 2 percent, oil fell 4 percent, copper lost almost 2.5 percent, and losses of 2.7 percent in wheat and 2 percent in corn.
But that, and other policy tightening choppy did little to slow commodities' march higher.
China is the world's top consumer of a host of commodity products, including copper, iron ore, coal, cotton and soy and is the second largest consumer of corn, gold and crude oil.
The Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, which tracks 19 commodities, fell almost 2 percent.
Assessing the effect on some markets will be complicated by the Christmas holidays which see British-based markets such as the London Metal Exchange and London-based agricultural contracts, including softs, on NYSE Liffe closed on Monday and Tuesday, while markets in China and the United States reopen on Monday.
"It is a little bit of a surprise, but the move should be welcomed by the market. The central bank has increased the interest rates before the end of 2010, which means the possibility of increasing interest rates in the beginning of 2011 will be smaller," said He Yifeng, analyst at Hongyuan Securities in Beijing. "I don't think the central bank will increase interest rates before March."
After the initial reaction, analysts said the move may prove to be positive, reaffirming November's message that China's leaders are acting to stem inflation and control prices if needed.
That along with China's plans to go to the world to stock up on commodities, especially grains, makes for a bullish outlook for 2011, analysts said.
"It will be bearish for agricultural prices, which have rebounded recently. But we believe the impact will be short-lived and not hit the bullish trend, especially of the soy market, which will be supported by the drought in the South America. Right now its also the peak consuming season in China," said Wang Ping, analyst with Dongwu Futures.
China has run down many of its agricultural stockpiles this year to stop strong demand driving up prices.
Many markets, especially corn, sugar and cotton surged to record highs.
Given limited farmland and rising consumption, analysts believe the government's goal of self-sufficiency in grains—rice, wheat and corn—may force China to import other farm products which compete for acreage, such as soy, cotton and sugar.





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Extended Hours Price Alert News Alert * Delayed Data Quote Counter

..........you are insane!

I found this post on technicals which I read with interest.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RandomGamble...
Accept my salute for speaking out truth http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/applause.gif

Here is a very simple reason why those good looking indicators will not work-

Each and every one of us is following a different method to trade. One guy is using SMA, another one is using EMA, another one is using MACD, another one is searching for clues based on volume, another one is using candlestick, another one is using pin bar....infinite methods..add to it..everyone is using a different TF to follow their own indicators.

MACD is going to work perfectly if each and every one who participates in the market follow it with the same set of rules and on same TF. Then trading will turn out to be 'first in first out game'.

It is a global mess- Everyone is following their own indicator which is putting temporary pressure on price but majority of traders loose in the end. This individualistic behavior is responsible for 95% failure rate.

How can you win in this global mess?

There is one only one way to win. Only one. Think about it- Every one is following their own indicator/trading method. Collectively, what every one is doing is reflected in the price and movement of price.

Collectively, what every one is doing is getting aggregated and reflects on price movement. Reading the markets is the only way to become a top class discretionary trader. For a top discretionary trader, The money flows into the trading account effortlessly.

Reading the markets without any indicator gives you in single glance the result of all individualistic behavior.

To become a top discretionary trader calls for hard work, patience and making journals/discipline. It is not an automatic robot trading method.

Think about a very simple question- The MACD which are you following or SMA 20 which you are following- How many other guys who are trading are following the same set of indicators on exactly the same TF?

The answer to the above question is negligible traders are following exactly the same set of indicators on same TF. Given the ocean of indicators combined with variety of TF, every one is on their own.

Traders have to leave this individualistic approach and try to understand the 'collective behavior which is reflected purely on price.

Last edited by kingfisher, Oct 9, 2010 8:42am

Then This;

So, what's the problem? In one word: fear.

Fear is brought about by having lost capital in the past on trades where the trader formulated a positive expectancy prior to taking the position. That loss of capital came as a direct result of a failure to understand the true definition of Price Action, because had there been a true understanding of Price Action, the capital loss would have been negligible, at worst, in the aggregate.

The failure to understand the true definition of Price Action, comes directly from a lack of knowledge and a lack of knowledge comes from a lack of study and research. The rest comes down to mental/intellectual capacity, where any 12 year old would qualify to become a successful trader, on that score alone. So, the real crux of the matter is not how smart one might be, but how much one really wants to be successful in the business of trading and how much effort they put into learning the ropes.

Wall Street, has been awash for eons with highly intelligent human beings that have managed to fail at trading the markets. The financial markets have a way of tossing the most academically successful people to the street, upside down and on their heads - in a matter of weeks or months. Thus, it is not the gifted I.Q. that determines trading success. Determination, drive, motivation, focus, and a willingness to do the homework required, are what typically sets apart the successful trader, from the un-successful trader, in the aggregate. Others are successful merely because someone handed them their success on a silver platter (nothing wrong with that by the way), by showing them precisely what to do, how to do it and when to do it - a known successful formula. Those opportunities don't come around as frequently, as those who make their own way, through hard work and commitment to the Practice.


What is true Price Action?

True price action is price behavior which is consistently measurable, consistently identifiable and consistently predictable within a range of acceptable margin of error, or deviation from the norm, such that a profitable trading model can be sustained over time.

Every ounce of time a trader spends on research, that has nothing to do with understanding price action and/or money management, is an ounce of time (quite frankly) wasted.

Once the trader has found the Price Action they intend to use (whether one or more Price Actions are used in combination), the issue then turns immediately to Money Management and whether or not that particular researched Price Action contains enough Magnitude to extract from the market, the profit necessary to maintain a positive slope equity curve. It does not matter whether the trades are executed manually or through an automated Bot. The goal of every "for profit" trader, is a positive slope equity curve. Anything less than a positive slope equity curve means that true Price Action is not being used as the basis for making trades, which in turn, is a direct result of the success or failure of the research done, to produce the evidence for true Price Action in the first instance. Every successful trade is so, because Price Action was favorable at some point prior to AND subsequent to trade execution.


How does one find true Price Action?

Well, just Yoda might say something like this:

"The secret to locating true Price Action, that there is no secret to locating true Price Action. What's hidden in full plain view, is the very thing that most traders hardly ever see, and that is what cloaks its ultimate secrecy."

The trader needs to come to the realization that true Price Action is "perceptively ubiquitous throughout the market." Again, Yoda might say: "It surrounds the market." "It envelopes the market." By definition, true Price Action reveals itself in the form of Patterns: patterns of Time, patterns of Price and patterns of Volume. So, now, we've come full circle, back to the very thing that is said to not exist - Patterns.


Why do Patterns exist in the first place?

This whole thing comes down to an understanding about the Universe in which we live out our lives: There are no random coincidences. Not one. Not even a single one. Not even a fraction of a single one.

There are no random happenstances in the Universe - you won't find one anywhere. Think about it. If the Universe were truly "random" and truly "chaotic," there would be no human beings, no earth, no solar systems, no galaxies and most importantly, no laws of physics existing independent of our ability to perceive them. Gravity and Electromagnetism cannot be explained in the absence of the Strong and Weak forces of the Universe. Yet, both gravity and electromagnetism as inextricably tied to the existence of every single component coded into the Periodic Table. Tweak either gravity or electromagnetism, and you dissolve the entire Periodic Table, at once - including every single human being that has ever walked on planet earth. Why? Because, at the very same time, you will have tweaked the entire known Universe, right out of existence, as well. Cause & Effect.

Cause & Effect, net Patterns, by definition. And, we live in a Cause preceding Effect Universe by way of fact. Thus, if Effect always follows Cause, then the existence of Patterns must therefore equal True. If the existence of Patterns equals False, then Effect would not be bound to follow Cause and thus, Cause would not be necessary to produce Effect. And, if that's the case, neither the Strong or Weak forces in the Universe would be primordially essential elements in the subsequent formulation of either Gravity or Electromagnetism. Thus, Patterns not being True, argues against its own existence. So, much for "Patterns" not existing.

The only question the trader needs to deal with is: Which Pattern can I Exploit for Profit. Thus, Pattern exploitation becomes the name of the game. Find the "Pattern" then exploit the Pattern - on a consistent basis. That's trading. The rest is inconsequential at best.

IMPORTANT NOTE FROM MYSELF !!! (Forexpro30)

I disagree with most of the above post with regard to Price Action and Pre Determination.

I wanted EVERYONE who is interested in this topic to read it.

We all have a brain. Some here are more intelligent than others. Some others are less intelligent however they may have better common sense.

How can we truly know who is right ?

A rookie might say it makes good sense. In some ways it does and in other ways it does not.

Price Action is a factor. Technicals are a factor. Fundamentals are a factor. Risk Management is a factor. Perhaps WHO you are is the biggest factor.

If you have NO DISCIPLINE or little discipline and trade through FEAR, GREED or EGO you are guaranteed to lose in any trading from stocks to binds to commodities to forex.

Forex is the most leveraged if you trade at 100 to 1 as I do.

Unless you are willing to have an open mind and invest time and energy and first work on yourself, then work on learning and stop expecting the charts or some expert to tell you what to do however good counsel is fine as long as you look at all factors involved as I have explained above.

What gives me the right to post my views here as I do ?

Forex Factory for one allows me to post as long as I follow the rules.

If I have a hidden agenda then you should suspect my motives. How can you know for sure my real motives ?

Nothing is for sure in this crazy world of ours especially when money is involved.

TRUST NO PERSON especially the words of persons. Judge people by their actions not their words.

If I ever ask anyone here for any kind of benefit like money or teach them how to trade for a fee then I am a fraud and a con artist which I am not.

I was reading a thread over the weekend concerning someone who used to be a guru around here and sadly he seems to have ripped people off.

I only mention it here because EVERYONE must do their own DUE DILIGENCE. Be careful and use common sense. Invest the time and energy to learn. There is no easy way to make money especially in Forex.

I have figured out how to be a winner in Forex however I have paid my dues. I have taught myself all that I know. There has been helpful people around me with skills but I had to learn to fish before I could share my knowledge with anyone.

In Forex the only factor that should count is HOW MUCH money are you ahead or behind each month .

I use to trade with as little as $5000 US and now unless there is $10,000 minimum I would not trade it. I discovered a real truth years ago and that it is easier to trade $100,000 US than $10,000 US because the risk is less if you use proper Risk Management or Money Management methods and if you get good entry and exit and win over 50% of the time.

There is much to learn trading Forex and I learn more every single day that I trade. I post here because I enjoy sharing, teaching and also learning from others.

I hope you all understand that there is NO HOLY GRAIL or GURU that will help you win in Forex.

If YOU want to WIN then work on yourself in your daily life and become a mature healthy individual and then with time and study you may have the ingredients of a winning Forex trader.

One More Time "A Happy and Prosperous Happy New Year To All"

Forexpro 30: I see you're taking over the waves with your posts.

I think that there is still some significant potential downside looking mid to longer term, it took almost all of Oct to work out the consolidation at the most recent highs... rangey price action the past week or so has made the picture a lot less clear, preparing for another wave to the upside or a re-distribution phase, or just low activity prior to the xmas break (US & European commercials are likely to be very quiet until the first week of Jan).

I want to be very clear here when I was making comments on pre determination.

There are patterns or price action that CAN be traded HOWEVER there is a FUNDAMENTAL reason behind it. It is NOT Random.

One example that I have given before and will give again now is the time frame between 2:00 AM EST and 11:00 AM EST.

I only refer to EUR/USD which is the ONLY currency I trade at the moment.

I only trade it short for the time being because I see the Trend as being down. I can change my views at any time based on NEW OBSERVATIONS so please do not bother to tell me 3 months from now that EUR/USD is at 1.50000

I use a one week to two week short term trend and always trade in the direction of the trend.

I look for patterns and anyone watching the last ten days of trading can see what happens to EUR/USD between 2:00 AM and 4:00 AM and 8:00 and 11:00 AM.

Of course there can be other data out that will change the observation however when there is none the pattern repeats and I short and short and short at the Top of my Bollinger Band knowing what planned news events might change the equation.

I have the PATIENCE to wait until it reaches my entry point and the DISCIPLINE to take profits.

I use Risk Management and I SCALE in my positions NEVER having more than 20% of my CAPITAL in the forex market at any one time and NEVER risking more than 5% of my CAPITAL on any One Trade Plan.

I hope this post clears up any confusion caused by my remarks on Patterns. There are patterns however they change by new factors being at play.

Welcome
this is my first post on the forum
What do you think about this arrangement

Wow, cool mind dump... just for the record, in my earlier post by use of the term technicals I was refering to PA and technical price patterns, I do not use any form of canned indicator, just price & tick vol, I use a few ma's to add some structure... However that's not to say that indis can't be used effectively by some, just that they've never really worked for me...

LOL, up until Xmas eve I could almost set my watch by the 08.30 GMT 30 to 50 pip plunge...

It was your link that got me on that thread. I am more than aware of all the issues having read the threads.

I am not sure if your comment about waves is clear to me. I am myself and in no way do I do anything but represent my personal views here. I respect you and your thoughts very much.

In fact I have already written out the The Four Agreements in long hand as to the rules and I love the strength of the words. This will help me in my private life.

"THIS IS WHY discipline IS THE ABILITY TO SAY no TO ONESELF."

It is very hard to say no to bad habits and that's where discipline comes in.

Thank you for that gift and I will forward to communicating with you in the future on Forex Factory.

Take care and be well.

Thanks and keep posting. Good Trading.

Forexpro 30:

Top of the afternoon to you my friend. As it relates to waves, its just a figure of speech. I'm in essence saying, i've been reading all your posts.

I cant take the credit for what Ive shared with you, I am just passing along the message that I recieved which changed my life.

The thanks should be forwarded to the author of the book, Miguel Ruiz.