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  • #351,821
  • Dec 25, 2010 4:09pm Dec 25, 2010 4:09pm
Quoting Chicky
Some food for thought. Just found in my trading achive folder.

A Journey from $2,800 to $45,000 in a month
Yeah, good food, according to which quite few traders will lose

there curious asses on Forex. I tell you what, sell you car and house,

if you have one, and place 100 lot trade for 10-25 pips, and you might

very well will hit jackpot.. Otherwise, if you start with 2.5k

Zero is much closer

than 50k Merry Christmas!!!

P.S

I see only 2 ATM trades as of now USDCHF (below 0.96)/USDJPY(below 0.83) LONGS!!!..

Money in the bank, I don't even have SL on those.. I love it..

Will grab Mercedes from those trades (Easy Money), don't care about EU..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #351,822
  • Dec 25, 2010 4:16pm Dec 25, 2010 4:16pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
That's not going to help the EUR. Or worldwide equity markets.
Please allow me to explain the title of my post.

The edge that I have in trading forex and sets me apart from others is getting access to news as soon as possible. Now thanks to this link we can all have the same information before the forex markets open again.

However just having access to the information quickly does not mean you will profit from it. This is more so if you only trade using technicals.

Let me share my thoughts from the fundamental side to explain it better.

This most likely will not be treated well by the equity markets as has already been pointed out. Therefore let's plan ahead and see how these news will affect the markets starting around 3:00 PM EST on Sunday.

I will watch the New Zealand and Australian reaction keeping in mind we still are in the holiday period. Then I will keep a close watch on the Japan open heading to the Hong Kong open.

My assumption not yet confirmed is the equity markets will go down. That is only a educated guess until confirmed again with the holiday caveat added again.

How will the Europe markets react ? Will they sell off ? Will funds flow to USD/CHF as a safe haven currency. Will USD/JPY get stronger ?

If Europe goes down then most likely EUR/USD will go down but it might depend on strength of USD/JPY. Will Japan INTERVENE if USD/JPY goes below 82.00 ?

How will Gold react and what about the Dow Futures ?

The point of this post is NEWS and this is news moves markets.

Understanding what will probably happen and how each Asset Class affects another is important.

Before FX trading opens I will have read a minimum of 25 different views which I will get from my regular sources. I will FORM my own consensus and be ready for any possibilty.

EVEN THE POSSIBILITY of NO REACTION.

The market is always right short term and once PERCEPTIONS are formed than the market reacts. The perceptions may be wrong but short term they are the perceptions that moves the markets and the charts.

REALITY always wins out eventually.

I will be glad to answer to any questions or comments.

Thanks again for bringing this NEWS to our attention. I was getting bored since I do not celebrate Xmas. I just celebrate Life.
  • #351,823
  • Dec 25, 2010 4:20pm Dec 25, 2010 4:20pm
lol sky

you had a little to much xmas cheer ?

usdjpy still under 83 .....

usdchf .9617 ....

hold on did you say usd longs ? lol what happened to your usd is doomed soap box speaches ?

China raised rates today .. merry xmas. Should make usd stronger next week



Quoting SkyzerFX
Yeah, good food, according to which quite few traders will lose

there curious asses on Forex. I tell you what, sell you car and house,

if you have one, and place 100 lot trade for 10-25 pips, and you might

very well will hit jackpot.. Otherwise, if you start with 2.5k...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #351,824
  • Dec 25, 2010 4:23pm Dec 25, 2010 4:23pm
Quoting Forexpro30

My assumption not yet confirmed is the equity markets will go down.
Yeap, will go down 10 or 20 points

Inflation is here, Interest rates are 0%.

US Equity Markets will keep inflated.

I do not see any sell off in the near future.. NONE.

Otherwise those Doomsters was crying about Market collapse since like

9-12 month ago while Markets rises 40%.. Flat, slightly down and up.

Every deep been bought heavily.. Oil 90$ + might very well hit $140/b

by July 2011.. Let's watch and see..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #351,825
  • Dec 25, 2010 4:28pm Dec 25, 2010 4:28pm
Quoting malcolmb14
lol sky

you had a little to much xmas cheer ?

usdjpy still under 83 .....

usdchf .9617 ....

hold on did you say usd longs ? lol what happened to your usd is doomed soap box speaches ?

China raised rates today .. merry xmas. Should make usd stronger next week
Yeap, bro I'm getting hit by "Absolut" already )) Yes, USDJPY under 83,

which

means screaming BUY for at least 100 pips, I already took profits from

USDCHF trade, waiting for low 0.95 area again...
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #351,826
  • Dec 25, 2010 4:31pm Dec 25, 2010 4:31pm
merry christmas

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  • #351,827
  • Dec 25, 2010 4:32pm Dec 25, 2010 4:32pm
Quoting Forexpro30
Please allow me to explain the title of my post.

The edge that I have in trading forex and sets me apart from others is getting access to news as soon as possible. Now thanks to this link we can all have the same information before the forex markets open again.

However just having access to the information quickly does not mean you will profit from it. This is more so if you only trade using technicals.

Let me share my thoughts from the fundamental side to explain it better.

This most likely will not be treated well by the equity markets...
The first thing that I did is find the link to the interest rate hike.

http://www.financialpost.com/news/Ch...236/story.html

Not this one but the last one so we can compare. Again a surprise and the release right on Xmas.

Snippet:

BEIJING, Oct 19 - China’s central bank surprised on Tuesday with its first increase of interest rates in nearly three years, a move that reflects its concern about rising domestic asset prices and stubborn inflation.
It said it would raise benchmark one-year deposit and lending rates by 25 basis points each.
Oil prices fell, stocks pared their gains in Europe and the dollar rose across the board after the announcement as investors were caught off guard by the tightening step.
“The interest rate rise is entirely outside of market expectations,” said Zhu Jiangfang, chief economist at CITIC Securities in Beijing.
“The recent rise in headline inflation has put the real rate into negative territory. And I think that’s why the central bank needs to raise interest rates in such a hasty way,” he said.
A number of leading economists, including some advisers to the central bank, have suggested the central bank increase deposit rates to keep savers’ returns in positive territory.
China reported consumer inflation of 3.5% in the year to August and economists expect that the pace climbed to 3.6 percent in September.
Still, the increase in rates is surprising given that several top leaders have recently expressed confidence that inflation is under control, and have said that higher rates would potentially suck in speculative capital from abroad.


Read more: http://www.financialpost.com/news/Ch...#ixzz19AJHqjot


Now I will be on the lookout for opinions from parties I respect and those who I do not agree with. I want to read both sides since the TRUTH usually is in the middle.

How will the markets treat the news ? What will the spin be ?

Will someone INTERVENE ?

We will find out in the near future. All feedback is welcome.
  • #351,828
  • Dec 25, 2010 4:50pm Dec 25, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting Forexpro30
The first thing that I did is find the link to the interest rate hike.

http://www.financialpost.com/news/Ch...236/story.html

Not this one but the last one so we can compare. Again a surprise and the release right on Xmas.

Snippet:

[left]BEIJING, Oct 19 - China’s central bank surprised on Tuesday with its first increase of interest rates in nearly three years, a move that reflects its concern about rising domestic asset prices and stubborn inflation.
[color=#000000]It...
The Experts all had their OPINION then and it is here;
http://www.financialpost.com/news/An...240/story.html

However please keep in mind this is now the period after November 4TH of this year and many things have changed with QE2 and Interest Rates going the opposite way and Gold going UP with Oil over $90.

Now we want to see how the reactions are from the so called experts and the markets and the SPIN will be important.

The key action now is OBSERVE which means do nothing until you see a GOOD TRADE Opportunity.

Do not forget BUY the RUMOR and Sell the News however the date of the announcement is the surprise and why and what it will mean will play itself out so be patient. And again the main force of the market is away until January 2011 and there will be a NEW dimension in the USA congress and less power in the senate.
  • #351,829
  • Edited 5:03pm Dec 25, 2010 4:59pm | Edited 5:03pm
Quoting walb99
Most of the time the so called news are only new for the public, big investors knew is already ahead and it's priced in. Rule is, first price is moving, then the news are coming out. So that's why always be careful by trading the news.
This news was NOT priced in by anyone. Why ? China raised rates for the first time in three years in October 2010. Now again and the factors have changed. I cannot say what their real reason is for sure or if the US government knew (I doubt it)

This while thought of being possible is still a surprise and is NOT FACTORED in the way I see it. Especially by being announced today. However I might be wrong since the Market short term is always right however the odds are on my side.

I will make NO TRADE until I see the feedback and then watch the markets reactions.

The next NFP during January 2011 is NOT factored in and by chance if it is a surprise like PLUS 300,000 New Jobs the markets will change quickly to reflect the surprise.

We both should just wait and observe however you should always do what has made you money in the past. If you make money without the fundamentals than more power to you.

There is a lot more to trading news than just reading it as you can see by my questions to myself and knowing what the answers when known will mean to the markets and the MONEY FLOWS which always MOVE the charts.

Happy Holidays !!!
  • #351,830
  • Dec 25, 2010 5:05pm Dec 25, 2010 5:05pm
Quoting kill56
both are good i'd rather use the ema put both on u chart and see , the ema match my fib and S/R lines
I've set up 200ema along side my 100 and 200 sma indi's... I already see price bouncing off the 200 ema many times in my charts... I will monitor these for the future.. I also added the 200 ema to my RSI - previously has 200sma on there... Thanks again
  • #351,831
  • Dec 25, 2010 5:12pm Dec 25, 2010 5:12pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
That's not going to help the EUR. Or worldwide equity markets.
My take is it is priced in & expected. What would be interesting would be details from China on their intent to buy Port debt and if China will do the same & to what extent for other Euro problem countries. Interesting to see China 'stepping into' this role.. what's next?
  • #351,832
  • Dec 25, 2010 5:20pm Dec 25, 2010 5:20pm
Quoting walb99
Most of the time the so called news are only new for the public, big investors knew is already ahead and it's priced in. Rule is, first price is moving, then the news are coming out. So that's why always be careful by trading the news.
Yes and no about it already being priced in.
There are a lot of professional traders who do not hold positions open overnight. They open positions in the morning, trade all day, and then go home flat. This news has not been priced in by these traders, as they have yet to take a position for the day in whatever asset class that they trade.

Here was the result from two weeks ago when China held rates steady.
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/busines...megadrop_story

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...-k-s-rise.html

http://www.forextv.com/forex-news-st...s-rates-steady


I use a rather simplistic apporach to money flows across asset classes - I simply determine if it's 'risk on' or 'risk off'. Risk on = falling dollar, risk off = rising dollar.
Based on what I percieve, I take a bias into the day prior to looking at the technical charts.
This works pretty well for me, but your mileage may vary.
  • #351,833
  • Dec 25, 2010 5:40pm Dec 25, 2010 5:40pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Yes and no about it already being priced in.
There are a lot of professional traders who do not hold positions open overnight. They open positions in the morning, trade all day, and then go home flat. This news has not been priced in by these traders, as they have yet to take a position for the day in whatever asset class that they trade.

Here was the result from two weeks ago when China held rates steady.
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/busines...megadrop_story

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...-k-s-rise.html...
Most of the real money is on the sidelines for the holiday season.

There will decisions made over the next 10 days and purchases will take place for dozens of reasons. The money flow into the markets will be priced in. The markets do not have this development priced in. The interest rate increase is real and will draw money to China.

All Asset classes will be affected and Risk On and Risk off goes along with money flow. Do you think Japan wants to see USD/JPY at below 80 ?

All assets including Gold, Oil, Currencies will be adjusted based on the new factors in the markets.

The charts will ALL change as they move through their various support and resistance levels.

I am NOT predicting a DROP in the DOW of 250 points however I am ready for it if it comes and I know how it will cause change in the various currencies if it does. News Trading and Fundamenal Trading are NOT one and the same if you count news in this case as the release of the news.

Fundamentals are about Supply and Demand.

News such as an Interest Rate Hike by China will change the dynamics of supply and demand.

That is my view and you surely have your views.

This comment is directed at no person in particular.

I am just sharing the way I form my opinions on the fundamentals as explained in earlier posts.

Now I am off for supper if I can find a restaurant open on XMAS.
  • #351,834
  • Dec 25, 2010 5:49pm Dec 25, 2010 5:49pm
Any Thoughts on the Final week of trading in 2010? I am very excited to start the new week and hopefully gain some insight from you guy on your expectations and trade ideas this week.



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"More important than the quest for certainty is the quest for clarity"
  • #351,835
  • Dec 25, 2010 7:09pm Dec 25, 2010 7:09pm
Quoting Forexpro30
Now I am off for supper if I can find a restaurant open on XMAS.
Let us know if it goes as well as in 'A Christmas Story.'

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  • #351,836
  • Edited 11:01pm Dec 25, 2010 10:48pm | Edited 11:01pm
Quoting Forexpro30
Please allow me to explain the title of my post.


My assumption not yet confirmed is the equity markets will go down. That is only a educated guess until confirmed again with the holiday caveat added again.
Let me share my thoughts from the Technical side..
As I posted earlier 18th Dec http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=348150

Quote
[DOW Theory] Based on historical observation, Hamilton estimated that secondary movements retrace 1/3 to 2/3 of the primary move, with 50% being the typical amount.
http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php...sis:dow_theory

Quote
[Retracement] Percentage retracements of market price movements are used by technical analysts to determine price objectives. Markets often retrace previous moves by predictable percentages such as 33, 50 and 67 percent. The 33 and 67 percent retracements are the minimum and maximum retracements in [[Dow theory]].
http://glossary.reuters.com/index.ph...cur&oldid=8678

We are approaching to some very interesting Historical and Technical levels on S&P500, DOW, and other indexes... you might be right here.. as

according to the DOW Theory, every Primary trend retrace from 33%, 50% or 66% .

[Charts: S&P, DJII, HANG SENG, AUS]
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  • #351,837
  • Edited 1:58am Dec 26, 2010 1:43am | Edited 1:58am
Quoting Forexpro30

Will USD/JPY get stronger ?
That's my bet for coming week!!!!!!!!!

I'm long at various levels from 83.50 to 82.80, and I'll keep buying till 82.35.
Target 84.30, no stops. If I would put in a stop it would be 79.25 or so but I assume that long before that happens BoJ would intervene since it would kill the Japanese economy.
I also assume that if BoJ intervenes they will do it much stronger than last time to break through some important resistance lines (like 85.90).

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #351,838
  • Edited 3:15am Dec 26, 2010 2:47am | Edited 3:15am
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...677071424.html

The Case Against Floating Currencies

It is ironic that the international monetary system of floating currencies is based on a theory called the "Optimal Currency Area" that celebrates the freedom of central banks to print money at will. The idea is that total freedom to create money would promote global progress and employment, smooth out business cycles, and prevent bubbles and their associated crises.

The irony is that the system is obviously suboptimal. It goes against the grain of globalization, the process that is defining our economic times. To accommodate the central bankers' wishes to control their own currencies, the floating system requires splitting the world's monetary markets into as many currency areas as there are countries.

This introduces a grave fragmentation in the international monetary markets precisely when all other markets, including the financial ones, are coming together into a single global market. It creates obstacles for the operation of the emerging global chains of production as well as for the international allocation of resources. Fragmentation also opens the door for currency and financial crises, turning capital flows, a naturally stabilizing force, into a destabilizing one through currency speculation.

Unbridled monetary printing led us to the collapse of Bretton Woods in the late 1960s and then into the stagflation of the 1970s and early 1980s. Then, after a brief recess that ended in the mid-1990s—the result of Paul Volcker's refusal to print money during his tenure as Federal Reserve chairman—we returned to trigger-happy monetary creation.

As a result, in the past 15 years we have gone from bubble to bubble, and from bust to bust, printing money first to keep the economy going; then to overcome the bursting of the dot-com bubble, then to sustain a triple bubble of housing, securitized instruments and commodities; then to overcome the effects of the bursting of these bubbles, which is leading to a second commodity bubble and a boom in emerging markets that seem to be waiting to go bust. It is as if we believe that by printing money we can remove hard budget constraints.

Worse, as happened in the mid-1930s, when currencies also floated, countries are engaging in currency wars that nobody can possibly win. The objective of all warriors is to depreciate their currency more than the rest of the world. In the process, while all currencies are debased, the floating system is failing to perform its most elementary promise: absorbing international imbalances. As with the United States and China, the absorption of these balances has ceased to be based on automatic, economic processes and has become the subject of political confrontations.

This failure should lead us back to the drawing board to re-design the international monetary system, reversing the trend that prevailed during the 20th century. We started that century with a fundamental international currency, gold, which kept its value through time and was widely accepted around the world. We ended the century with more than 150 currencies that change their value constantly and at different rates from each other, in such a way that most currencies are not accepted in most countries.

In pursuance of the illusion that money can remove hard budget constraints, we moved from order to disorder. After demonetizing gold in the 1970s, now we are demonetizing money by debasing and politicizing it.

Mentioning the gold standard that prevailed all over the world during the Industrial Revolution brings about derisory comments, some of them suggesting that the value of gold was based on fetishism. This is a mistake. The gold standard was a highly rational system. It kept prices constant through centuries and provided an automatic mechanism to remove international imbalances, such as those that are creating today's currency wars, without the help of any international bureaucracy.

The gold standard achieved this not because of any mystical property of gold itself but because it was an impersonal system. Central banks or governments could not tamper with monetary creation. This is what we need today.

Mr. Hinds is the former finance minister of El Salvador and the co-author of "Money, Markets and Sovereignty," which won the Manhattan Institute's 2010 Hayek Prize. This op-ed is adapted from Mr. Hinds's remarks upon receiving the Hayek Prize.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #351,839
  • Dec 26, 2010 3:12am Dec 26, 2010 3:12am
Quoting The Fool
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...677071424.html


Mentioning the gold standard that prevailed all over the world during the Industrial Revolution brings about derisory comments, some of them suggesting that the value of gold was based on fetishism. This is a mistake. The gold standard was a highly rational system. It kept prices constant through centuries and provided an automatic mechanism to remove international imbalances, such as those that are creating today's currency wars, without the help of any...
The logical conclusion is not gold or any other physical commodity - the age of fiat currency is here to stay. But there will be only one, eventually, and it is more likely as not going to be the USD. And then, of course, as prophecied:

"And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name." Revelations 13:17
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #351,840
  • Dec 26, 2010 3:53am Dec 26, 2010 3:53am
Quoting The Fool
The logical conclusion is not gold or any other physical commodity - the age of fiat currency is here to stay. But there will be only one, eventually, and it is more likely as not going to be the USD. And then, of course, as prophecied:

"And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name." Revelations 13:17
Spot on Fool !!!

More than 100 years ago a book was written about the world coming together, USA constitution being trashed, church in bed with government, Sunday law, etc...etc again 100 years ago!!!!!

Just google "The Great Controversy" and read the last chapters first or...take a look at these videos
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