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  • #351,161
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:46am Dec 23, 2010 9:46am
Quoting apt
It's not that easy for me Pip...

For example yesterday I got in early on a long, set my TP @ 1.3188 right under the day before's top, and a easily acceptable exit point considering the Pivot and Fib line.

It only hit 1.3180 and it dropped down, I'd figure it would range. It didn't, I lost on it.

Today, Ok I realize I completely ignored the fact that 1.3180 was a 61.8% fib line, can't believe it.

I get in on a long, it gets past 1.3150, which is a fib line, I figure it will easily test 1.3180, so I set my TP @ 1.3178. Spikes 40 pips the...
You can decide for yourself if my thoughts are useful.

Your only objective trading forex is to make money. Let us start with a know saying in trading that works.

The Trend Is Your Friend

There can be no trend in a 1 minute or five minute chart and maybe even a 15 minute chart.

I ALWAYS trade with the Trend PERIOD !!!

Now what trend am I talking about ?

I establish the Trend in my mind based on events. As we all now can see the trend in EUR/USD for the last week was down.

I only short EUR/USD at the TOP of the range that I choose. I use a 1 minute and five minute and 15 minute chart for my day trading.

My TRADE PLAN and trading opportunity for TODAY was only at THREE AM when EUR/USD hit the High at 1.31521

Once we got through the news after 10:00 AM EST there was no more trades to do. My next trades might be when it next touches 1.3100 if I decide the Trend is still down.

It was pretty easy this past week to trade this pattern. Only going short and covering would have increased your profits and you would not have had as many decisions to make going long and short in untradeable trends within the 1 and 5 minute charts.

I hope you understand and will consider this method that works for me surely as I deposit money in my bank account.

Happy Holidays
  • #351,162
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:46am Dec 23, 2010 9:46am
  •  apt
  • | Joined Oct 2010 | Status: All your cookies are belong to me. | 1,114 Posts
Quoting cloggie
Math, I am slowly turning into a Quant more and more. It was common sense and pretty obvious that a range was going to form here, no two ways about it.
I understand the latter, given from what we have seen the past few days that is a given it seems.

The math part is what I am asking though, I'd be curious to know what math that might be
  • #351,163
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:47am Dec 23, 2010 9:47am
Quoting cloggie
Math, I am slowly turning into a Quant more and more. It was common sense and pretty obvious that a range was going to form here, no two ways about it. So even if you can't pick the exact range, the fact that it is entering one should keep you out of an anticipated trade, then just watch the 5/15 and see what the range is going to be. I am just a bit better in anticipating an exact range, that is not taking away the simple reasoning and visual clues in the price of one forming though.
could you elaborate further?
  • #351,164
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:48am Dec 23, 2010 9:48am
Quoting apt
I understand the latter, given from what we have seen the past few days that is a given it seems.

The math part is what I am asking though, I'd be curious to know what math that might be
check your pm review that and come back next year... your forex life has changed...
  • #351,165
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:49am Dec 23, 2010 9:49am
Quoting goods
Does not anyone see 2970 as the obvious target or am I the only one here?

I do think hedge funds probably being the major players right now I dont know what is going on with the bigger institutions, but I do believe there is horsepower to target this.
The best gift I could receive this holiday season would be a break of .3000. Can you imagine the stops below there, I think it is a very obvious target.
  • #351,166
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:50am Dec 23, 2010 9:50am
Quoting apt
I understand the latter, given from what we have seen the past few days that is a given it seems.

The math part is what I am asking though, I'd be curious to know what math that might be

The math side gets pretty complicated and needs some serious computer power and knowledge of Matlab and Gauss, just work on where and why a range forms, no need to know the exact boundaries, just wait for it to show itself on the 5/15, that is what you trade anyways.

Visually, the London S1 is coming into play right now. London H4, closing in 5 minutes should give us a clearer picture of where we are going.

With London closing in 30 we could see a bit of a rally for your Long to get into profit, keep an eye on the close. 77 breaking (my earlier range) will give you 92, don't trade the anticipation, trade the clear break.
  • #351,167
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:53am Dec 23, 2010 9:53am
Quoting gatorinla
target #1 was the white dotted line. #2 in the red chart. pink box is a mofu that should provide st resistance. white lines in the background are a bigger predictive. sos with slip bounce. we usually bounce after one is hit and slipage. we just hit one (white dotted line). there is a gartly that indicates we may go back to 3135 or more (we are in its range atm). it expires around 3045. so be on the lookout.

gl

edit.. my tittle says 2969 to 2904
2904 should be 2804
update. original chart in the above post
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #351,168
  • Dec 23, 2010 10:00am Dec 23, 2010 10:00am
  •  apt
  • | Joined Oct 2010 | Status: All your cookies are belong to me. | 1,114 Posts
Quoting Forexpro30
You can decide for yourself if my thoughts are useful.

My TRADE PLAN and trading opportunity for TODAY was only at THREE AM when EUR/USD hit the High at 1.31521

Once we got through the news after 10:00 AM EST there was no more trades to do. My next trades might be when it next touches 1.3100 if I decide the Trend is still down.

It was pretty easy this past week to trade this pattern. Only going short and covering would have increased your profits and you would not have had as many decisions to make going long and short in untradeable...
Thanks for your thoughts, what I don't get which apparently you do tho, is how did you know that was the high for the day?

Why didn't you believe it would touch 61.8% fib, @ 3 AM is just when London opens. It could have been revving up to go past that.
  • #351,169
  • Dec 23, 2010 10:03am Dec 23, 2010 10:03am
Quoting apt
This is exactly my problem, I feel like I sometimes lose all of my day, trying to extract each and every pip from the market. Stress myself out immensely doing so.

It seems to me that just the desire and greed has me on that kind of mentality.

The truth is, one should be satisfied with 40+ pips out of a "fat" London move after a 1-3 hour observation, then turn off the computer and enjoy your time.

Sadly, this is not the case for most amateur traders, well, for me at least.
1. decide what sort of trader you are . Are you a swing trader or a day trader.
2. work out what yearly goals you want to achieve (percent on account). For your 1st year as an amateur 40% in fx might be good , this will set you tp .
3. Determine when you can trade. If you are trading the london session never trade until 15 min after london opens as this allows all the frankie games to be completed.
4. Work out what the 10 day range is on euro , right now it is 130 (dropped from 170) , take 80% of this range to set your target .100 pip right now. Now all you got to determine is up day or down day , set realistic tp. I aim for 40 pip a day , 2 trades per week. I know most in here gets hundreds each day but do not forget mostly that is complete BULLSHIT , ignore the braggers in ff they will just put you off your game and are only bragging they made a ton to lie to themselves and feel better about their massive losses... remember trading is a mind game.
5. Once you have got your weekly target walk away for the week ( very hard). I have been trading 2 days per week and finally getting my life back to normal , sleep , moods etc . Forex will take over and destroy your life if you allow it. Remember this is not a dress rehearsal , you only live once and who wants to spend hours in front of a computer trying to get every pip out of the market when you can be here for 2 hrs max and get 40 pip , forgetting about the market when you are not in it (this is swing trader versus day trader mind set). i have no stomach for swing trading , although do play stocks on options trades BUT I know my risk is limited to price of option trade only.

If a pair goes into a tight range just trade the limits

Last nights trade
buying climax on 10 min right at 3 x high volume pivots 1.3150 major resistance , then a few bars later a no demand on a 5m in at failure of prior days upper value area , we know we are in xmas period so range more likely then trend .. 90 pip , of which 50 pip was gained in 10 min . Is it worth stressing about the other 40 pip gained over the the next 4 hrs ?

btw the idea of spending 4 tp 6 hours in the market a week is to avoid burn out and keep the mind alert.
80 pip a week is 1000% return on account per year for me. Something new I am trying this year. I will let ytou all know how this goes. I found by end of 2010 I was done. I had to take am month of trading and sleep before I ended up a zombie. I noticed tuesday / wed I would be well up for the week then give some profits back by end of week. So next year trading monday / tues / wed only. 2.5 hrs per day ... that is it, us / london overlap

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  • #351,170
  • Dec 23, 2010 10:06am Dec 23, 2010 10:06am
sometimes bug.... sometimes windshield
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  • #351,171
  • Dec 23, 2010 10:07am Dec 23, 2010 10:07am
  •  apt
  • | Joined Oct 2010 | Status: All your cookies are belong to me. | 1,114 Posts
Quoting malcolmb14
1. decide what sort of trader you are . Are you a swing trader or a day trader.
2. work out what yearly goals you want to achieve (percent on account). For your 1st year as an amateur 40% in fx might be good , this will set you tp .
3. Determine when you can trade. If you are trading the london session never trade until 15 min after london opens as this allows all the frankie games to be completed.
4. Work out what the 10 day range is on euro , right now it is 130 (dropped from 170) , take 80% of this range to set your target .100 pip right...
Thanks, I really appreciate this post bro.

Truth of the matter is, a friend kept bragging about his wins and I decided to get into it.

However, instead of doing ANY READING, WHATSOEVER - I took at look at the charts and was like wow this is easy , it's just fucking lines.

Needless to say 60 days later, I blew $20,000. Yeah, fucking ridiculous.

So now I have this obsession to get it all back as quick as possible, and I am not sleeping, barely eating, and it's putting me in distress.

I've been doing a lot of reading, digesting as much information as I can, but at the same time trying to "get rich quick"..

And like you said, seeing all these clowns post win after win, is quite disheartening and makes you think, wtf what am I doing wrong.
  • #351,172
  • Dec 23, 2010 10:08am Dec 23, 2010 10:08am
Quoting apt
Thanks for your thoughts, what I don't get which apparently you do tho, is how did you know that was the high for the day?

Why didn't you believe it would touch 61.8% fib, @ 3 AM is just when London opens. It could have been revving up to go past that.

Stop focusing too much on your fibs, especially counter trend ones. Keep some simple Tl's on your hourly and H4, stop looking for countertrends and for reasons to end the trend, stay with it. The London open was pretty clear today, Franky took it up to clear their book and to take profit of the TY desks, let the London get through the first batch of orders and you can clearly see that London could not break the Franky high and that gives you the direction for the day, now just find a decent rally to get in on and ride the london order book. Watch for news that could screw up the major direction and if you are comfortable use the news spikes as a rally for another entry with the trend.
  • #351,173
  • Dec 23, 2010 10:11am Dec 23, 2010 10:11am
Quoting apt
Thanks, I really appreciate this post bro.

Truth of the matter is, a friend kept bragging about his wins and I decided to get into it.

However, instead of doing ANY READING, WHATSOEVER - I took at look at the charts and was like wow this is easy , it's just fucking lines.

Needless to say 60 days later, I blew $20,000. Yeah, fucking ridiculous.

So now I have this obsession to get it all back as quick as possible, and I am not sleeping, barely eating, and it's putting me in distress.

I've been doing a lot of reading, digesting as much information...

I was spot on earlier then telling you, you are driven by fear. This is now clear. You are so worried about missing out on the first 5 pips, that you can't see the 100 pip moves.

Time to get back to basics, open a demo account of 3 or 5k and triple it only using 0.5% of your balance per trade, only have open positions less then 2% of your balance, once you manage that, then you are ready to trade real money again.

Stay away from FF, only about 50 members or so out of 35,000 know what they are doing, and the rest are just muppets leading you astray.

The 20k you lost is just the cost of your education and your fee for participation, don't fret over it, it is still cheaper then a degree at a top rate Uni.
  • #351,174
  • Dec 23, 2010 10:13am Dec 23, 2010 10:13am
Quoting cloggie
Stop focusing too much on your fibs, especially counter trend ones. Keep some simple Tl's on your hourly and H4, stop looking for countertrends and for reasons to end the trend, stay with it. The London open was pretty clear today, Franky took it up to clear their book and to take profit of the TY desks, let the London get through the first batch of orders and you can clearly see that London could not break the Franky high and that gives you the direction for the day, now just find a decent rally to get in on and ride the london order book. Watch...
could you explain the franky fake? so the direction is still down and we should look for a pullback rally to get in on the downtrend?
  • #351,175
  • Dec 23, 2010 10:13am Dec 23, 2010 10:13am
gotta love PA, lol. could see this long a mile off.
  • #351,176
  • Dec 23, 2010 10:14am Dec 23, 2010 10:14am
Quoting cloggie
I was spot on earlier then telling you, you are driven by fear. This is now clear.

Time to get back to basics, open a demo account of 3 or 5k and triple it only using 0.5% of your balance per trade, only have open positions less then 2% of your balance, once you manage that, then you are ready to trade real money again.

Stay away from FF, only about 50 members or so out of 35,000 know what they are doing, and the rest are just muppets leading you astray.

The 20k you lost is just the cost of your education and your fee for participation, don't...
listen to him, he knows what he's talking about.
  • #351,177
  • Dec 23, 2010 10:15am Dec 23, 2010 10:15am
Quoting apt
And like you said, seeing all these clowns post win after win, is quite disheartening and makes you think, wtf what am I doing wrong.


One thing you are doing wrong, is reading about how all these clowns win after win and getting disheartened. A part of that is you must realize that a lot of posters are completely full of shit. A part of that is reading the forums can easily sway your position, especially after taking a 20k hit. And the biggest part of it is...WHO GIVES A SHIT what somebody else makes, that really aint gunna pad your back hipster anytime soon.

Focus more on consistent steady gains and less on bragging rights and bullshit.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #351,178
  • Dec 23, 2010 10:15am Dec 23, 2010 10:15am
Quoting cloggie
Stay away from FF, only about 50 members or so out of 35,000 know what they are doing, and the rest are just muppets leading you astray.
Quoted for Truth!
  • #351,179
  • Dec 23, 2010 10:16am Dec 23, 2010 10:16am
Quoting apt
Thanks, I really appreciate this post bro.

Truth of the matter is, a friend kept bragging about his wins and I decided to get into it.

However, instead of doing ANY READING, WHATSOEVER - I took at look at the charts and was like wow this is easy , it's just fucking lines.

Needless to say 60 days later, I blew $20,000. Yeah, fucking ridiculous.

So now I have this obsession to get it all back as quick as possible, and I am not sleeping, barely eating, and it's putting me in distress.

I've been doing a lot of reading, digesting as much information...
Hi mate, I'm not a super experienced fx trader or super succesfull, but let me tell u whaa I think: if you go no with this, you'll never get your money back, your risking your health, your family, frineds and everything...trust me, I've been there and sometimes that ghost wants to caome back.
TAKE A BREAK DUDE, IT WILL BE GOOD FOR YOU.
My best wishes ti you!!!
  • #351,180
  • Dec 23, 2010 10:17am Dec 23, 2010 10:17am
Your mate is full of it .. or done 1 trade and was lucky to hit a trend. How long have they been trading ?

Most new traders think fx trading is easy..reality is 90% lose , 5% break even , 2% make some , 2% make enough to liveo n and 1% join the millionaires club.

MT4 and bucket shops are set up to take advantage of these stats ... they want your money . they being the rich f...kers that run this market. and yes I think fx is as manipualted as stock now as most retail traders are in it and anyway to grab your money is fair game to the rich that want to get richewr and break us mortals... gs throws 1 trillion around like it is a $10 note these days. How do you think the frankie fake out works if there is no manipulation in the fx market. All you got to do is work out the game and there is a way to do this ... I will pm you .

Sorry to hear of your loss. do not be in a hurry to get it all back in one chunk. I know many other traders in the same boat you are in , do not think you are the only one.

Quoting apt
Thanks, I really appreciate this post bro.

Truth of the matter is, a friend kept bragging about his wins and I decided to get into it.

However, instead of doing ANY READING, WHATSOEVER - I took at look at the charts and was like wow this is easy , it's just fucking lines.

Needless to say 60 days later, I blew $20,000. Yeah, fucking ridiculous.

So now I have this obsession to get it all back as quick as possible, and I am not sleeping, barely eating, and it's putting me in distress.

I've been doing a lot of reading, digesting as much information...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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