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  • #351,141
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:19am Dec 23, 2010 9:19am
  •  apt
  • | Joined Oct 2010 | Status: All your cookies are belong to me. | 1,114 Posts
Quoting cloggie
A trade here is a short term trade in anticipation of a range breakout and a solid refusal of a major support that the market has been shooting for all week. IF you are going to trade anything a long would be the right one to take here, however I would have let it settle first into a range and trade the breakout to get the averages working in my favor. I don't like to trade anticipated breaks and anticipated holding of major supports that have been a target for almost 2 weeks.

I trade the fat part of a move, let it give you a solid confirmed...
If I've gotten anything from your posts cloggie, it's to not worry about getting in on the exact entry and just ride the "fat". Which I get, and I like, reduces the chance for any loss.

Only part is past couple days/weeks even haven't had many runs like that in Eur/Usd.

After a 20 pip break which proves a running trend, it runs out 20-40 pips later. Low liquidity at this time of the year is diminishing the 100-150 pip breakouts eur/usd is used to on a daily basis.

Now it breaks out for 50 pips, ranges for 4 hours, breaks another 30, and heads back the other way.
  • #351,142
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:20am Dec 23, 2010 9:20am
Quoting apt

Only part is past couple days/weeks even haven't had many runs like that in Eur/Usd.

Really? Have a look at your 30 and you may want to reconsider your statement, loads of gentle fat part of good moves to be had, without the need for picking the top and bottom.

The key is knowing when price enters a range, and I gave you the one she is going to enter into here.

The mistake you are making here, and it is a classic one, is to see the M5/15 bouncing and you are entering hoping it will carry through on the 30/H1, and that is just not going to happen 8 out of 10 times.
  • #351,143
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:21am Dec 23, 2010 9:21am
Quoting cloggie
Really? Have a look at your 30 and you may want to reconsider your statement, loads of gentle fat part of good moves to be had, without the need for picking the top and bottom.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #351,144
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:23am Dec 23, 2010 9:23am
  •  apt
  • | Joined Oct 2010 | Status: All your cookies are belong to me. | 1,114 Posts
Quoting cloggie
Really? Have a look at your 30 and you may want to reconsider your statement, loads of gentle fat part of good moves to be had, without the need for picking the top and bottom.

The key is knowing when price enters a range, and I gave you the one she is going to enter into here.
Well I'm just not good then ;/

I think the problem is I am entering into EUR/USD before London open, and it seems to contradict all the work Asian session has done.

I end up getting stuck in a trade, and miss out on the wave.
  • #351,145
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:24am Dec 23, 2010 9:24am
Quoting cloggie
Really? Have a look at your 30 and you may want to reconsider your statement, loads of gentle fat part of good moves to be had, without the need for picking the top and bottom.

The key is knowing when price enters a range, and I gave you the one she is going to enter into here.

EURUSD has been bear since 1.42 shoritng the top of ranges is all I am doing. I completely agree with you. When people learn to wait for these setups they can be very rewarding.

Money can be seen all over the place. It might take time. Those that say the trend is not your friend obviously are missing out on something big here?

Waiting for the right setup you can set a decent stop loss above the previous day's closing price once that price is broken by the current day.

Low risk high probable trading.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #351,146
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:25am Dec 23, 2010 9:25am
Quoting apt
Well I'm just not good then ;/

I think the problem is I am entering into EUR/USD before London open, and it seems to contradict all the work Asian session has done.

I end up getting stuck in a trade, and miss out on the wave.

Never ever enter a trade before the london open, let the Franky fake do its thing and then enter on a solid break of the london range. Asia always corrects 90% of the time and Pivot play is crucial there.

Again you are trading in anticipation and not let the market give you a clear direction for fear of missing out on the first 5 pips.
  • #351,147
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:27am Dec 23, 2010 9:27am
Quoting goods
EURUSD has been bear since 1.42 shoritng the top of ranges is all I am doing. I completely agree with you. When people learn to wait for these setups they can be very rewarding.

Money can be seen all over the place. It might take time. Those that say the trend is not your friend obviously are missing out on something big here?

The few times I have been here this week, mostly at the NY open, once I am of the ski slopes, I have been harping on about 3092-3061 and how the market wants those numbers, now that we have gotten here without a wet cat bounce, any long is just anticipating a correction in a move that took over a week to establish.

The last 30 day ADR is 165, there are loads of good runs to be had every day of the week, as long as you let it settle down and let the herd show you where we are going.

Bigger picture thinking is needed, with a good dose of patience this time of year due to volume and volatility.

Know when price enters a range and stay out, wait for it to break and find your next range, simples.
  • #351,148
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:29am Dec 23, 2010 9:29am
  •  apt
  • | Joined Oct 2010 | Status: All your cookies are belong to me. | 1,114 Posts
Quoting cloggie
Never ever enter a trade before the london open, let the Franky fake do its thing and then enter on a solid break of the london range. Asia always corrects 90% of the time and Pivot play is crucial there.

Again you are trading in anticipation and not let the market give you a clear direction for fear of missing out on the first 5 pips.
This is exactly my problem, I feel like I sometimes lose all of my day, trying to extract each and every pip from the market. Stress myself out immensely doing so.

It seems to me that just the desire and greed has me on that kind of mentality.

The truth is, one should be satisfied with 40+ pips out of a "fat" London move after a 1-3 hour observation, then turn off the computer and enjoy your time.

Sadly, this is not the case for most amateur traders, well, for me at least.
  • #351,149
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:31am Dec 23, 2010 9:31am
Quoting cloggie
The few times I have been here this week, mostly at the NY open, once I am of the ski slopes, I have been harping on about 3092-3061 and how the market wants those numbers, now that we have gotten here without a wet cat bounce, any long is just anticipating a correction in a move that took over a week to establish.

The last 30 day ADR is 165, there are loads of good runs to be had every day of the week, as long as you let it settle down and let the herd show you where we are going.

Bigger picture thinking is needed, with a good dose of patience...
I agree with the volatility on the lesser of volume anything can happen, you can still see direction but it takes forever and a day and waiting for the right setup is the best thing. unless scalping 10 to 20 pips a trade but you can even get screwed there. I tried to go for a long this morning and got eatin alive good thin I did not really lose much money just small risk but I knew the outcome and potential of both bear and bull risk.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #351,150
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:31am Dec 23, 2010 9:31am
Quoting apt
This is exactly my problem, I feel like I sometimes lose all of my day, trying to extract each and every pip from the market. Stress myself out immensely doing so.

It seems to me that just the desire and greed has me on that kind of mentality.

The truth is, one should be satisfied with 40+ pips out of a "fat" London move after a 1-3 hour observation, then turn off the computer and enjoy your time.

Sadly, this is not the case for most amateur traders, well, for me at least.

Let me give you a different perspective. If you can trade 40 pips out of a London break day after day consistently you will turn $1,000 into a 100k inside a year, think about that one.

If you are lucky enough to live in a part of the world that allows you, timewise, to trade the London session, then you are better of then most in here. London gives you over 50% of the daily move and has very simple and easy to trade setups.

So from now on, trade London, get your 40 and go walk the dogs. But never ever trade the Franky fake, unless you know what you are doing.

London works very simply, they collect the orders from around the world overnight and put them to market as soon as they open, they then speculate with their own book to frontrun the customer order book, figure out what direction the speculative part of the book is taking and ride it.
  • #351,151
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:32am Dec 23, 2010 9:32am
You have not been trading euro that long have you ?

VIX has died off in the stock markets to really low levels , this is also effecting move of usd

EUROs range in us session on average for the last 5 years is 50 pip. daily 90. It is the one reason I never used to trade it , these sideways movements for hours , sudden move of 50 pip and then sideways move is how it always used to move. This is nothing new. I just hope that volatility gets higher again in the new year

Quoting apt
If I've gotten anything from your posts cloggie, it's to not worry about getting in on the exact entry and just ride the "fat". Which I get, and I like, reduces the chance for any loss.

Only part is past couple days/weeks even haven't had many runs like that in Eur/Usd.

After a 20 pip break which proves a running trend, it runs out 20-40 pips later. Low liquidity at this time of the year is diminishing the 100-150 pip breakouts eur/usd is used to on a daily basis.

Now it breaks out for 50 pips, ranges for 4 hours, breaks another 30, and heads...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #351,152
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:33am Dec 23, 2010 9:33am
Crocodile remains?
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  • #351,153
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:36am Dec 23, 2010 9:36am
Hi all.

I have a simple question.

In your view, is it possible to pull back to around 1.3103-3104 in the near future?
  • #351,154
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:38am Dec 23, 2010 9:38am
Blimey, we are in a range, who would have thought? Oh sh!t I did:


Quoting cloggie
expect some rangin here from 3055-3077.

Feck, I am good...
  • #351,155
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:38am Dec 23, 2010 9:38am
Is the Currency markets open tomorrow? Dec 24? I know the stock markets and banks are closed, but don't know if there is currency trading. Thanks.
  • #351,156
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:39am Dec 23, 2010 9:39am
Quoting Ovidius
Is the Currency markets open tomorrow? .

Yes it is, some brokers close earlier though, check with yours.
  • #351,157
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:40am Dec 23, 2010 9:40am
  •  apt
  • | Joined Oct 2010 | Status: All your cookies are belong to me. | 1,114 Posts
Quoting cloggie
Blimey, we are in a range, who would have thought? Oh sh!t I did:





Feck, I am good...
How do you determine your numbers?
  • #351,158
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:42am Dec 23, 2010 9:42am
Quoting cloggie
Let me give you a different perspective. If you can trade 40 pips out of a London break day after day consistently you will turn $1,000 into a 100k inside a year, think about that one.

If you are lucky enough to live in a part of the world that allows you, timewise, to trade the London session, then you are better of then most in here. London gives you over 50% of the daily move and has very simple and easy to trade setups.

So from now on, trade London, get your 40 and go walk the dogs. But never ever trade the Franky fake, unless you know...
well said 40 30 10 pips and walk away. if you cant sit and manage the trade and ride the trend...
  • #351,159
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:42am Dec 23, 2010 9:42am
Does not anyone see 2970 as the obvious target or am I the only one here?

I do think hedge funds probably being the major players right now I dont know what is going on with the bigger institutions, but I do believe there is horsepower to target this.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #351,160
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:44am Dec 23, 2010 9:44am
Quoting apt
How do you determine your numbers?

Math, I am slowly turning into a Quant more and more. It was common sense and pretty obvious that a range was going to form here, no two ways about it. So even if you can't pick the exact range, the fact that it is entering one should keep you out of an anticipated trade, then just watch the 5/15 and see what the range is going to be. I am just a bit better in anticipating an exact range, that is not taking away the simple reasoning and visual clues in the price of one forming though.
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