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Sonic R. System

  • #16,121
  • Dec 22, 2010 11:54pm Dec 22, 2010 11:54pm
Quoting traderathome
It is very simple.

If EU and GU are moving up (against the dollar), the stronger of EU/GU will move better. Which is stronger? Look at EG! If EG is moving up, then E is stronger than G. If it is moving down, then G is stronger than E.

If EU and GU are moving down (against the dollar), the weaker of EU/GU will move better. Which is weaker? Look at EG! If EG is moving up, then G is weaker than E. If it is moving down, then E is weaker than G.

In summary, for moves up against the dollar, pick the stronger of EU/GU. For moves down against the...
THANKS.i love you !
  • #16,122
  • Edited 1:09am Dec 23, 2010 12:23am | Edited 1:09am
Quoting pips_buster
I am scared about my AUD
Take a look at the Daily pic. I have just redrawn the channel...things match up so well that it is hard for me to believe it will go higher. And if it does, it will be pure manipulation in advance of heavy shorting. This is pure speculation based on this Daily chart, as I interpret it.

If you trade small relative to your account size, you will never worry about such matters. Sometimes there is a very strong, sustained drive in advance of a trend reversal, almost as though the market movers know full well what is going to happen, and when (perhaps because they control it?). And in this manner, they take full advantage during the drive, to build up their opposite position....the position that will become profitable once the reversal takes hold!

I am not saying that is what is happening, but it could be. If you start your trades small, you won't worry about such matters. In fact, you will be able to capitalize on them, just like the market movers do.

BTW, note the volume has been falling off on this last leg back up to the upper channel line. this is a sure sign that traders don't feel comfortable with the rising price, and have been trading it less. So, why has it continued to go up? My conclusion is that it is the big money PPMs at work. They know it is overbought, but have kept the upwards pressure on, and momentum going, just so they could build their short positions on the backs of traders that are going long. When they feel the time is right, they will pull the rug on it, and laugh all the way to the bank!

WARNING: Speculation!
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  • #16,123
  • Dec 23, 2010 12:33am Dec 23, 2010 12:33am
Due to Japan Bank Holiday, liquidity in the asian session is low.. which makes it easier to bigplayers to move the market sharply i think.
  • #16,124
  • Dec 23, 2010 12:39am Dec 23, 2010 12:39am
Quoting pips_buster
Due to Japan Bank Holiday, liquidity in the asian session is low.. which makes it easier to bigplayers to move the market sharply i think.
Right on! With fewer players around to screw the manipulations up, it easier for those at the table to do their "work".

And now that it is up, they can work on closing leftover longs (for a nice profit) and acquiring shorts (that are destined to become humongously profitable). Why "destined"? Because the market movers will make sure of it.

Still, this is speculation. We will look back six months from now and know the truth.
  • #16,125
  • Dec 23, 2010 1:11am Dec 23, 2010 1:11am
Quoting traderathome
Take a look at the Daily pic. I have just redrawn the channel...things match up so well that it is hard for me to believe it will go higher. And if it does, it will be pure manipulation in advance of heavy shorting. This is pure speculation based on this Daily chart, as I interpret it.

If you trade small relative to your account size, you will never worry about such matters. Sometimes there is a very strong, sustained drive in advance of a trend reversal, almost as though the market movers know full well what is going to happen, and when (perhaps...
Why am I different with you?
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  • #16,126
  • Dec 23, 2010 1:18am Dec 23, 2010 1:18am
GU:

Since late yesterday the price has been rising. The PA pattern is reminiscent of a Bear Channel, so I don't trust how far it might continue. I have set a tentative TP as shown, for a modest 20 pips profit. And I will feel fortunate if I get it. But, that is the approximate price at the FR 50% retrace on the run down from the high on Monday to the low yesterday. So, it could happen.
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  • #16,127
  • Dec 23, 2010 1:38am Dec 23, 2010 1:38am
Morning to all,

regarding GJ - on almost all crosses we can see a lot of selling of GBP currency. I am sceptical about buying GBP because of that. On other note-we can also see a lot of JPY buying from mayor currencies! That is why I do not recomend to piss against the wave. I will try to sell every GBP cross on a retracement in Europe trading.

GBPCHF,GBPUSD,GBPAUD, GBPCAD and GBPJPY.

About AU I can also say - that in general there is mayor buying flow in AUD currency from all the crosses. Khm, that is why I would only buy AU, not even consider selling it.
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  • #16,128
  • Dec 23, 2010 2:17am Dec 23, 2010 2:17am
Quoting 21vs7
Morning to all,

regarding GJ - on almost all crosses we can see a lot of selling of GBP currency. I am sceptical about buying GBP because of that. On other note-we can also see a lot of JPY buying from mayor currencies! That is why I do not recomend to piss against the wave. I will try to sell every GBP cross on a retracement in Europe trading.

GBPCHF,GBPUSD,GBPAUD, GBPCAD and GBPJPY.

About AU I can also say - that in general there is mayor buying flow in AUD currency from all the crosses. Khm, that is why I would only buy AU, not even consider...
21vs7, let's talk about all that selling (my pic #1). Six months ago GJ dropped into a new, low range where it has been ever since. And all that time the volume has been declining. So, selling or not, it means traders are increasingly skeptical of these prices. It is oversold. Traders will not flock to it again, and the volume will not begin increasing, until the PPMs reverse the trend and start to drive it up.

In fact, as the chart shows, the volume has been decreasing ever since the price first hit the lows of its current range over two years ago!

The longer price moves along this support area, the stronger the support becomes. So my bet would be that the price breaks upwards.

Now, regarding your chart. It is very confusing, as you refer to "crosses" but fail to explain what you mean by that....lines crossing lines? PA crossing lines? Which lines? Selling when crossing up? Down? What TF chart is that, by the way? It doesn't say! (I already know, but I thought I'd throw that in, too.)

And then there is this....
"...on almost all crosses we can see a lot of selling of GBP currency..."

Oh? Really? I don't even see a volume study on your chart!

On my pic #2, time frame matching your time frame chart, I have a volume study. And it shows volume to be pretty damn flat, regardless of price! But, if you want to get picky about it, you will see that the tallest candles are predominately bullish, and are associated with the largest of the volume bars. And overall, it looks like most of the volume is from buyers at, or near, the bottom!

Regards,
-TAH
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  • #16,129
  • Dec 23, 2010 2:38am Dec 23, 2010 2:38am
I added to my yesterday long trade.


we'll see.

regards.
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"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #16,130
  • Dec 23, 2010 2:52am Dec 23, 2010 2:52am
GU:

My bearish outlook on this might be about to change. The quick torpedo to below the whole number (took some volume to satisfy the long orders along the way) has resulted in also high volume at the bottom. There is already more volume at the lows than the volume it took to achieve these lows. This could be the "Torpedo and Buy" strategy. Furthermore, unless things change, the current low is higher than the previous low. Given time, we might see a large higher high, higher low WAVE being completed, resulting in a SonicR long setup.

I have removed my target. Time now is just to wait and see what happens. If it goes lower, I might add to my long trade, based on the Daily chart.

In all likelyhood, what we have here is just a "sour grapes" move by the London PPMs. They missed out on the very lows of yesterday. A great place to buy. So, they just rammed the price back down for themselves to have the opportunity to buy at those low prices.

WARNING: Speculation!
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  • #16,131
  • Dec 23, 2010 3:00am Dec 23, 2010 3:00am
[quote]
Quoting traderathome
21vs7, let's talk about all that selling (my pic #1). Six months ago GJ dropped into a new, low range where it has been ever since. And all that time the volume has been declining. So, selling or not, it means traders are increasingly skeptical of these prices. It is oversold. Traders will not flock to it again, and the volume will not begin increasing, until the PPMs reverse the trend and start to drive it up.
I agree partly - but it all depends what strategy one trades. I personally trade only in trend direction everytime - it gives me confidence in my strategy. Hm, I trade 30m, 1h, 4h trades - it depends how much time I have. I take 50 pips, 100 pips to 200 pips - depending on a cross and PA. I risk around 1% and around 1:1 to 3:1 tp/sl ratio

About your volume theory - i can see that it works for you and others who listen beside it , fine! Its great system and im listening to it for some time now. Still, I can see that the trades could be positioned in main trend direction. "reverse the trend and start to drive it up" - why would I bother to find the trends end? If I see when London opens and we see 60-100 pips in trend direction. We can then set SL at BE+10pips and enjoy the ride. AU on other hand stands still at 1.002 - not even touched by USD gain against USD. GBPAUD we can see direction which I explained. It is seeable on every cross.

Quote
In fact, as the chart shows, the volume has been decreasing ever since the price first hit the lows of its current range over two years ago!

The longer price moves along this support area, the stronger the support becomes. So my bet would be that the price breaks upwards.
Its true that I am only studiing my volume knowledge on this forum, respectfully - will try to share my opinion in the future directly on that also.

Quote
Now, regarding your chart. It is very confusing, as you refer to "crosses" but fail to explain what you mean by that....lines crossing lines? PA crossing lines? Which lines? Selling when crossing up? Down? What TF chart is that, by the way? It doesn't say! (I already know, but I thought I'd throw that in, too.)
The chart. Yes, its not some science about that, but i would like to say, that I see charts only for retracement - S&R levels and candles, where I open and add my positions accordingly to the trend.


Quote
And then there is this....
"...on almost all crosses we can see a lot of selling of GBP currency..."
This is my analysis - a report on the 7 currencies and 21 crosses. I am developing this study which is flow&trend study. I use 5 different EA, which have around 50 different scenarious on every TF. It has different weight on every attribute and it recomend signals. I put all signals in general view as you can see it.

Now, i have some problem with my data collector so I will post my "old" summary from friday last week. data is from 13-17 december. I dont have my updated version here. still you can see some more data here..also I attach december data till 17.


Quote
Oh? Really? I don't even see a volume study on your chart!
You can see what I am talking about.

Quote
On my pic #2, time frame matching your time frame chart, I have a volume study. And it shows volume to be pretty damn flat, regardless of price! But, if you want to get picky about it, you will see that the tallest candles are predominately bullish, and are associated with the largest of the volume bars. And overall, it looks like most of the volume is from buyers at, or near, the bottom!
Yes, maybe this could be true-but I will buy the cross when PA will go up and at least 1-2 week trend will establish. When I will see on general that GBP as a currency is starting to be bougth and i could be in the money in 2 hours time and get a free trade from then on.

trend ends, when it ends

hope you agree on something here, mate
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  • #16,132
  • Dec 23, 2010 3:28am Dec 23, 2010 3:28am
[quote=21vs7;4261187]
Quote

I agree partly - but it all depends what strategy one trades. .......

Nice study bro.

To find a trend, look for a retrace then sail with the wind at the back and disregards any signals counter-trend is the best thing tarder can do.

Finishing my job today as there is water piping dammage in the next street so we don't have water and have to go home. What a pitty

marry Xmass all and good luck

Pumlitch
Follow my trading on Twitter and FB: @pumlitch
  • #16,133
  • Dec 23, 2010 3:51am Dec 23, 2010 3:51am
AU:

Added at 1.0045. New average is now 1.0005.
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  • #16,134
  • Edited 4:31am Dec 23, 2010 3:59am | Edited 4:31am
[quote=21vs7;4261187]
Quote

I agree partly - but it all depends what strategy one trades. I personally trade only in trend direction everytime - it gives me confidence in my strategy. Hm, I trade 30m, 1h, 4h trades - it depends how much time I have. I take 50 pips, 100 pips to 200 pips - depending on a cross and PA. I risk around 1% and around 1:1 to 3:1 tp/sl ratio

About your volume theory - i can see that it works for you and others who listen beside it , fine! Its great system and im listening to it for some time now. Still, I can see that the trades could...
Good trading to you, with your system, 21vs7. I mean that. And please respect that this is the Sonic R System thread. Perhaps you should think about starting a thread of your own, based on your methods.

As for AU, the attached chart clearly shows that even though the price has been pumped, and pumped, and pumped.......higher now than days ago, traders are losing interest at the high prices. For every buy, there is a sell. When the trading drops, yet price continues to climb, it is because market movers are manipulating the price higher in order to coax others to go long while they build a short position on the backs of those that do go long! Eventually, no one else will be willing to go long. The manipulators that are shorting will no longer find sheep to fleece. And at that moment, the manipulators will pull the rug by placing sequential sell orders at lower and lower prices, and the price will start to plummet. I want to say, "Mark my word on this!", but I'll just say....let's see what the market decides. Perhaps nothing of magnitude will occur until sometime after the holidays. But I believe something of great magnitude is approaching.

Regards,
-TAH
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  • #16,135
  • Dec 23, 2010 4:54am Dec 23, 2010 4:54am
Quote
Good trading to you, with your system, 21vs7. I mean that. And please respect that this is the Sonic R System thread. Perhaps you should think about starting a thread of your own, based on your methods.

Thanks, wish the same to you too mate! Also mean it! Like I said, I see that you are doing well! I agree also on my posting on this thread, still dont have enough reliable system and enough time to start it.

My plan was just to put my own opinion on the trade - I know that you dont have a direct problem with that.

Quote
As for AU, the attached chart clearly shows that even though the price has been pumped, and pumped, and pumped.......higher now than days ago, traders are losing interest at the high prices. For every buy, there is a sell. When the trading drops, yet price continues to climb, it is because market movers are manipulating the price higher in order to coax others to go long while they build a short position on the backs of those that do go long! Eventually, no one else will be willing to go long. The manipulators that are shorting will no longer find...


I agree about the market. Its all about SL - market moves on SL. If there are mayor SL levels on any cross - lets say EURCHF is the elegant version of "manipulators". SNB were "defending" 1,40. Jaoo - the story of a cruel financial manipulation vs debt story in CHF and the GREAT CHF currency issue. Still buying CHF on any cross by me.

Other note - Was hearing that "Russians" were selling GJ in 2008 and still are. And as we know - they are doing this in a fashion. The market is so big - its crazy. My thouth is that we wanna be with them accordingly.

Story about AU for me is still only one. I will attach M graph. If this month ends above 1,0 level its gonna be a crazy 1stQ of 2011. And, till i dont see any other level and also a bit of selling AUD on general, im afraid AUDUSD will have a lot of victioms on SL side.

Still, as we both know- every cross has ATR on its own. Strategies are different - and there is no problem to buy and sell a story against any trend. But im asking why to bother?
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  • #16,136
  • Dec 23, 2010 7:05am Dec 23, 2010 7:05am
with respect to both of you the I agree with your analysis; but still to maintain the respect to the thread and the system rules i think it would be better if only and only sonic enteries and exits are discussed here.



and so TAH "the GREAT SONICER" would also refrain himself from posting his speculation trades as well.


I have been following the similar system using gann hi-lo and qqe but i often missed the enteris on the cross. recently i revisited this thread I liked the way pending breakout orders are placed and started following the system.

Quoting 21vs7
Thanks, wish the same to you too mate! Also mean it! Like I said, I see that you are doing well! I agree also on my posting on this thread, still dont have enough reliable system and enough time to start it.

My plan was just to put my own opinion on the trade - I know that you dont have a direct problem with that.




I agree about the market. Its all about SL - market moves on SL. If there are mayor SL levels on any cross - lets say EURCHF is the elegant version of "manipulators". SNB were "defending" 1,40. Jaoo - the story of a cruel...
  • #16,137
  • Dec 23, 2010 7:11am Dec 23, 2010 7:11am
E/G. SonicR Setup

Waiting for TP1 at DS1
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  • #16,138
  • Dec 23, 2010 7:53am Dec 23, 2010 7:53am
Quoting TraderViet
E/G. SonicR Setup

Waiting for TP1 at DS1
TP1 hit for +40 pips. Now waitting for TP2 and will exit manually.

Today, wave of E/G is very beautiful, so, EU and GU is not good for trade.
Cannot find any entry point for EU and GU.

Also, I get +40 pips for U/CHF.

Marry Xmas All my friends!
  • #16,139
  • Edited 11:14am Dec 23, 2010 10:10am | Edited 11:14am
Quoting harora
with respect to both of you the I agree with your analysis; but still to maintain the respect to the thread and the system rules i think it would be better if only and only sonic enteries and exits are discussed here.



and so TAH "the GREAT SONICER" would also refrain himself from posting his speculation trades as well.


I have been following the similar system using gann hi-lo and qqe but i often missed the enteris on the cross. recently i revisited this thread I liked the way pending breakout orders are placed and started following the...
".... it would be better if only and only sonic enteries and exits are discussed here.......and so TAH "the GREAT SONICER" would also refrain himself from posting his speculation trades as well." - harora

I can do that. However, in all sincerity, most all of my "speculation" trades are add-ons to a SonicR trade that turned on me. So, if I don't post on them, there will be no continuity thru the trade up to final exit. And when I post the exit, everyone will "wonder" how a trade that had an initial EP of such-and-such ended up with a different EP at exit. If I don't post the exit, everyone will eventually start to "wonder" why. I have clearly been diligent in posting on every trade up to the final exit, even if the trade lasted many weeks.

I don't trade with a stop loss. Instead, I trade very light so if a trade gets away from me, I can stalk the negative action, and add on negative swings and far, far, far more times than not end up very profitable. It takes patience and account resources enabling capitalizing on such occurrances. Overall, I have found trading to be much more profitable than with SLs. And I suspect it is a technique used in professional trading when larger positions are being built. Unfortunately, accounting on the thread for each such trade becomes "complex". If you question the profitability of trading this way, here are some recent results....

Week Starting:
November 21- 10 trades, 978 pips
November 28- 04 trades, 350 pips
December 05- 07 trades, 267 pips
December 12- 05 trades, 240 pips
December 19- 09 trades, 620 pips

That is 35 trades, 34 winning and one losing, for a total of 2,455 pips. I currently have only three open trades, which I could easily close out right now in the negative by 179 pips, and not put a dent in my profits. Then it would be 38 trades, 34 winning and 4 losing, for a total of 2,276 pips. As for "speculation", it is by way of providing my reasons for making add-ons to such trades, lest some wonder why. Every one of these trades has been fully posted on this thread.

True, once in a great while I will start a trade with a non-SonicR entry, for example somewhere along a sudden and great move, or maybe just at some point after days and days of the price being relentlessly driven in just one direction. These I can omit without affecting continuity of the SonicR trades.

Regards,
-TAH
  • #16,140
  • Dec 23, 2010 10:30am Dec 23, 2010 10:30am
Quoting harora
with respect to both of you the I agree with your analysis; but still to maintain the respect to the thread and the system rules i think it would be better if only and only sonic enteries and exits are discussed here.



and so TAH "the GREAT SONICER" would also refrain himself from posting his speculation trades as well.


I have been following the similar system using gann hi-lo and qqe but i often missed the enteris on the cross. recently i revisited this thread I liked the way pending breakout orders are placed and started following the...
As an interested reader who follows every post I would say - you will rarely find such interesting thoughts on market dynamics in FF as in this thread.

There are many systems and methods, watching correlation and relative strength and weakness of currencies is one of them - and has been a fashionable " item " in the shape of " strength meters " by many marketers.

However, many traders, especially newbies, find it difficult to act on these readings. To find a strong currency and match it with a weak one is just one piece of the puzzle and can create new forms of distraction.

Essentially we are studying waves and a certain wave structure in Sonic - that is how I see it. What is behind waves ? Order flow. And this is created to a large degree by big players, who drive prices low in order to buy, or drive price high in order to have a better sell price.

Forex is not a nice market. I lost quite a bit in the beginning because I was jumping in to a trend and had my good-hearted intentions. Only since I learned to look at a chart and ask myself : where are the stops located, or in a range : what will happen after stops above and below price have been taken out etc etc I was becoming increasingly profitable.

TAH teaches us a lot with this speculation knowledge. It is not knowledge you can follow immediately like a signal service, and I am too sometimes tweaking my brain in order to understand what TAH is doing. Or I would wait like now in AUD even if I agree with TAH`s assumptions.....

But for me everything in this thread is pure Gold.

Merry Xmas to all and a Happy New Year !


_______________
michael
Be like water.
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