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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #9,901
  • Dec 22, 2010 2:16am Dec 22, 2010 2:16am
Quoting DemoForever
Adilius07 has been kind enough to give me some details about the backtest he carried out rescently.He tested 10 currencies taking all signals using 1% risk per trade.He would not give me the exact dates for the test,but said he tested 1hr and 4hr bars.From what i can gather he went back a couple of years.Im assuming he is using a 20 dma as an exit?The first thing that strikes me is trading 10 pairs,taking all signals with 1% risk on every trade is far to much.Having not carried out this test myself i couldnt say for sure.
Yeah, if you can't say anything for sure... why talk at all? bored?
  • #9,902
  • Dec 22, 2010 6:17am Dec 22, 2010 6:17am
ok... i will try again, my friends...

So - you have to get it - you have to trade the market which is making new highs and new lows... Another words - the market which you trade have to move somewhere.... you you trade the market which is going nowhere (1-3 months range) - you will not make money. If you see the market is stalling for a while - you can just wait for a breakout off the range, and then - trade this market.

Ok? I think - it is clear enough.



Good luck!
  • #9,903
  • Dec 22, 2010 9:42am Dec 22, 2010 9:42am
Quoting Adilius07
My backtests show no. It is not profitable. Yeah I did not go 20 years back to test (think is dumb) but recent PA show it is not. If you take every setup you will not make any money, too many cuts will ruin your account. If you filter and take what you think are "best setups" you will ruin even faster, because those that look bad will end up runners.

Of course that is only my personal opinion. But if you see that no one really can't show any prove in 2-3 years, you have something to think about......
I know from my own personal experiemce DIBS works, and after trading it live for coming up to 2 years now, i can testify it is profitable the way i trade it.

Backtests going back a few weeks/months doesn't even constitute as a backtest in my opinion, particularly not with a medium term strategy such as DIBS. For example, I am in the process of carrying out an extensive (10 years) backtest of my DIBS based strategy with an econometrics professor and his team, in order to (try to) multiply my edge. Would i be prepared to pay their rate of £600-£1000 a day if i didn't know DIBS is profitable. Doubtful....
  • #9,904
  • Dec 22, 2010 10:49am Dec 22, 2010 10:49am
Quoting mr_p
I know from my own personal experiemce DIBS works, and after trading it live for coming up to 2 years now, i can testify it is profitable the way i trade it.

Backtests going back a few weeks/months doesn't even constitute as a backtest in my opinion, particularly not with a medium term strategy such as DIBS....
However, posting a MT4 Stament to prove your achievement is not possible due to it being top secret and a very personal, intimate thing to share right?
  • #9,905
  • Dec 22, 2010 1:29pm Dec 22, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting Adilius07
However, posting a MT4 Stament to prove your achievement is not possible due to it being top secret and a very personal, intimate thing to share right?
Maybe he trades millions and is satisfied with 15% profit yearly risking no more than 0.3% of his account on every trade and he had 2 lucky years. I've said before here that you could have made 200% or more in the first half of 2010 trading only the majors. Saying that a method works and investing a few thousand pounds on research doesn't mean anything in this business, actually the academics are the last people I'd pay and ask to improve my odds. According to their theory, one can't profit in the long run.
  • #9,906
  • Dec 22, 2010 3:49pm Dec 22, 2010 3:49pm
Quoting Sauron
Maybe he trades millions and is satisfied with 15% profit yearly risking no more than 0.3% of his account on every trade and he had 2 lucky years. I've said before here that you could have made 200% or more in the first half of 2010 trading only the majors. Saying that a method works and investing a few thousand pounds on research doesn't mean anything in this business, actually the academics are the last people I'd pay and ask to improve my odds. According...

I agree that 2 years really is no time at all in the grand scheme of things when talking about consistent profitability in trading, however after approx. 1400 DIBS based trades and very agreeable returns (suggesting a clear edge), I'm more than happy to continue to trade this way.

A note regarding the 'academics'...I'm directing the research based on my trading experience. I have a clear idea of where I can increase my edge which only 10 years or more of intraday data will be able to help me prove or disprove my theories. This is where their assistance comes in, as for 1. I do not have the historical data, and 2. my coding and programming skills are woeful.
  • #9,907
  • Dec 22, 2010 3:53pm Dec 22, 2010 3:53pm
Quoting Sauron
Saying that a method works and investing a few thousand pounds on research doesn't mean anything in this business, actually the academics are the last people I'd pay and ask to improve my odds. According to their theory, one can't profit in the long run.
Not sure which theory you are exactly referring to, but you must have missed the last couple of years of research in the field behavioral finance. Yes, it's still a new field, but it uncovers irrational behavior by market participants and thus profit making opportunities.

Maybe you wanna check out some academic articles on that subject.
  • #9,908
  • Edited Dec 23, 2010 1:17am Dec 22, 2010 11:58pm | Edited Dec 23, 2010 1:17am
If you must reply, you must reply...
I didn't say that I agree with the Random Walk Hypothesis but I drew the conclusion that academics are usually wrong in their analysis of the market. Regardless of the fancy new theory which pays their bills, knowing that something happens is not enough to profit from it.

The market participants don't make irrational decisions, they act using the information they have. If the information is wrong, already discounted or simply incomplete, they, as the whole, still take the best decision they are able to.
  • #9,909
  • Dec 23, 2010 1:43am Dec 23, 2010 1:43am
Quoting Sauron
If you must reply, you must reply...
no need to get sarcastic.

Quoting Sauron
The market participants don't make irrational decisions, they act using the information they have. If the information is wrong, already discounted or simply incomplete, they, as the whole, still take the best decision they are able to.
And that was the theory for the last few decades, that individuals will make the best decisions with the information they have.
But in fact they more often than not will make irrational choices. Many investors are not led by ratio but by emotional decisions. And that is the exact reason why markets are not efficient, but inefficient.
That's all part of the behavioral finance field. Anyways, I am sure if it interests you, you will for sure be able to find further information on the net.

best regards
  • #9,910
  • Dec 23, 2010 2:10am Dec 23, 2010 2:10am
Quoting Adilius07
However, posting a MT4 Stament to prove your achievement is not possible due to it being top secret and a very personal, intimate thing to share right?
That's right. I would never post my statements on these boards. But I also claim to make a consistent profit with this strategy. I have no reason to lie about this. Learn what a "hot hand" is. Then do your back tests.
Gone to a better place
  • #9,911
  • Dec 23, 2010 2:13am Dec 23, 2010 2:13am
Quoting smikester
That's right. I would never post my statements on these boards. But I also claim to make a consistent profit with this strategy. I have no reason to lie about this. Learn what a "hot hand" is. Then do your back tests.
Me too, I make +187% so far this year. Consistently and easily
  • #9,912
  • Dec 23, 2010 6:15am Dec 23, 2010 6:15am
Quoting Adilius07
Me too, I make +187% so far this year. Consistently and easily
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=83531

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=83534

hmm so which is it. Wow I made 187% but not live but also I have spent 5 months here all Negative. Consistency blah blah blah. I hope that most of this was just BS flying being a smart arse otherwise that brings us to http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=83524 which is smarter than you are currently because at least he was up front and admitted it, you on the other hand are going to 'rush' into trading live without enough success on demo because your 'ego' says you need to. If you think an education into something for 12 months is a loss of life then you have a long way to go. You may wake up in 10 years time after a dozen blown accounts and wish you had only wasted 1 year, but then I guess time will tell.

I am a huge fan of the work James and his crew do over at the private and public forum. Just remember

I very seldom go this indepth, and my purpose is not to bash but when someone claims something and then less than a day later says something completely contradictory, well to bad for them.
  • #9,913
  • Dec 23, 2010 6:18am Dec 23, 2010 6:18am
Quoting Razor_trader
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=83531

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=83534

hmm so which is it. Wow I made 187% but not live but also I have spent 5 months here all Negative. Consistency blah blah blah. I hope that most of this was just BS flying being a smart arse otherwise that brings us to http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=83524 which is smarter than you are currently because at least he was up front and admitted it, you on...
there is an easier way just click on my signature
you missed the whole point.
  • #9,914
  • Dec 23, 2010 8:59am Dec 23, 2010 8:59am
Quoting Adilius07
there is an easier way just click on my signature
you missed the whole point.
Another reason why I seldom go indepth, the answers are usually in front of me!
  • #9,915
  • Dec 23, 2010 3:32pm Dec 23, 2010 3:32pm
Quoting Adilius07
Yeah, if you can't say anything for sure... why talk at all? bored?
Can i just at least try and show you how dibs can interact with your own trading style.First chart is eur/usd daily which shows a nice BEOB reversal that you might take with maybe a 160 pip stop.

Second chart is 4hr that i would be looking at(along with 1hr)for a lower risk dibs trade.Two profitable trades are arrowed.The outside bar trade and the dibs could still be making profits today.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd beob.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd beob.gif dibs.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #9,916
  • Dec 23, 2010 4:12pm Dec 23, 2010 4:12pm
Quoting DemoForever
Can i just at least try and show you how dibs can interact with your own trading style.First chart is eur/usd daily which shows a nice BEOB reversal that you might take with maybe a 160 pip stop.

Second chart is 4hr that i would be looking at(along with 1hr)for a lower risk dibs trade.Two profitable trades are arrowed.The outside bar trade and the dibs could still be making profits today.

Nice one demo , good to see this thread getting back on track.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #9,917
  • Dec 24, 2010 1:35am Dec 24, 2010 1:35am
Quoting DemoForever
Can i just at least try and show you how dibs can interact with your own trading style.First chart is eur/usd daily which shows a nice BEOB reversal that you might take with maybe a 160 pip stop.

Second chart is 4hr that i would be looking at(along with 1hr)for a lower risk dibs trade.Two profitable trades are arrowed.The outside bar trade and the dibs could still be making profits today.
Great example of multi timeframe bias and looking for your signal. As for people giving it a chance, it is up to the individual for what works for them and what doesnt. DIBs is not for everyone just as 1 min scalps with Stoch and volumes doesnt suit me. If someone cannot get a overall trust with what they are being shown then they will never find success with it.

Great work again

RT
  • #9,918
  • Dec 24, 2010 1:36am Dec 24, 2010 1:36am
Merry Christmas all and I hope you have a safe and funfilled New Year. I am out of the markets until late Jan which should see some numbers back plus I need a holiday.

Take care

Razor
  • #9,919
  • Dec 24, 2010 5:50pm Dec 24, 2010 5:50pm
has anyone attempted to automate this system?
  • #9,920
  • Dec 25, 2010 2:37am Dec 25, 2010 2:37am
Thanks for your comments gez40 and Razor Trader.Merry Christmas to all dibbers and everyone on FF.
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