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Sonic R. System

  • #16,021
  • Dec 20, 2010 12:11pm Dec 20, 2010 12:11pm
Quoting traderathome
Vic,

It is not a "pissing match". You simply stated something that is not correct when you said that ticks are inconsequential because they might or might not contain any trades.

The entire point of a tick is to notify the user platform of additional trades! And that is why, during the slow time of the day, there might pass a minute or more without any tick......no new trades yet! It is the advent of a new trade (or trades) since the previous tick, that causes a new tick, which sends the additional trade count to the user platfrom. And over...
It just aint so TAH......
although you seem to be convinced that you know how it is....
As I said before, you can believe whatever you want..... I urge you to consider the possibility that the retail forex market is not like trading some exchange traded instrument. You may be getting a tick simply when your friendly MT4 broker wants to change the price for any reason he so pleases - trades or no trades. For example, consider that no small time retail forex broker is going to let himself become a sitting duck just because he did not happen to have any trades come in at the current price while the rest of the market reveals which way price is headed. Moreover, when price is still, do not think it is only because there are no orders....just as when it moves fast do not believe it is necessarily because there were lots of orders. The big guns will move the price to where they want it to be so they can then profitably fill the large orders that they always had in hand........and they will hold price for as long as they need to play with the minds of retail traders. The fact that there is no regulated/audited environment, enables them to move price up or down when it is advantageous to them to do so without any accountability as to why. Consider making some broker friends, believe me, it can be quite enlightening....
I have not traded with an MT4 retail trader for more than two years now, so it is possible that things have changed drastically - and they have all become self regulated, transparent and operating solely for the benefit of their clients, but I highly doubt it. Anyway, enough from me - today is the most time I have ever spent on a forum, and not likely I will be checking in again for a long time - so all the best again and trade safe.
  • #16,022
  • Dec 20, 2010 12:46pm Dec 20, 2010 12:46pm
GU Short Trade
I traded this big wave which is retraced well.
I took a FE.
SL @ 1,5560
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  • #16,023
  • Dec 20, 2010 2:18pm Dec 20, 2010 2:18pm
dksolo, could you tell me what moving average(s) you have on top of the 89 ? Maybe 150 or 200 ? Thank you.

And after so many hours/days/weeks studying this thread I want to say hats off to you consistent Sonicers, especially when the market is so difficult as lately. Thank you TAH and Basber for giving me so much to learn.

I hope to contribute in the future. Awesome job with the new template !

Happy Holidays !


____________
michael
Be like water.
  • #16,024
  • Dec 20, 2010 3:03pm Dec 20, 2010 3:03pm
please help me, where can I find the indi that u have in the upper left corner and the sonicR macd that u have below.

Thanks
  • #16,025
  • Edited 4:03pm Dec 20, 2010 3:35pm | Edited 4:03pm
Quoting altclick
It just aint so TAH......
although you seem to be convinced that you know how it is....
As I said before, you can believe whatever you want..... I urge you to consider the possibility that the retail forex market is not like trading some exchange traded instrument. You may be getting a tick simply when your friendly MT4 broker wants to change the price for any reason he so pleases - trades or no trades. For example, consider that no small time retail forex broker is going to let himself become a sitting duck just because he did not happen to have...
Altclick, thank you for your expanded explanation of your viewpoint. It brings up the interesting premise that brokers can change the price on their server, without any real trades moving the price, for the purpose of processing waiting orders that they will earn the spread on (gapping the price), or moving their quotes off the market wide price to deceive their retail clients into trading at a price that enables the broker to make the spread and some full or fractional pips as well.

That is an interesting premise, indeed! All I can say to add to the body of information regarding this premise is that when simultaneously running platforms from different brokers as well as simultaneously watching market quotes from multiple liquidity providers, they all seem to move together. There may be fractions of a second difference when they change, and there may be a pip or less difference when they "should" all be the same, but overall, there seems to be remarkable consistency. Any differences seen are small compared to the differences in spread, as brokers compete with one another on that score. Furthermore, brokers get their price quotes from their "liquidity providers". So, if there is a difference in price quotes, the source of the difference is with them, not the broker.

In other words, it appears the differences in spread amongst brokers is a much larger factor in what "cost" a retail client trades at, then any differences in broker price quotes coming from the various liquidity providers.

All in all, for a market as unregulated as this one is, price quotes seem to be remarkably consistent. If you know of any broker that, in an ongoing manner, somehow manages price quotes prices apart from the market wide price average, then feel free to post the name so Sonikers can avoid doing business with them, and their liquidity provider.

Regards,
-TAH
  • #16,026
  • Dec 20, 2010 4:05pm Dec 20, 2010 4:05pm
Quoting To0m
please help me, where can I find the indi that u have in the upper left corner and the sonicR macd that u have below.

Thanks
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15443
  • #16,027
  • Edited 6:18pm Dec 20, 2010 5:29pm | Edited 6:18pm
Sonikers, here is a PM that I need your help answering:

"Dear -TAH,

I am sorry if I put your name wrong. I have some questions. I am trading since more then 2 years as part time and as learning. I learnt from many traders spent time on many threads. But I still could not find a system that I can work on daily and can get output daily.
Right now I do job from 9-5, I can work 3 hours in London early session and then asian sesseion.
I am planning to move to trading as full time with in a year.
Do you think that SonicR system is a system which can one use as intraday trading as full time?
I had learnt manythings as individual, like price action, candle formation, trend lines, fib, etc. But as a whole system or method I dont have anything like that.
Can one make SonicR as complete system for his/her daily basis earnings?
If I get 30 pips daily avg. I can easily make it as full time job. Can I take that system for this?" -



I have withheld the name of this member to protect privacy, but the topic should be of interest to many. The question is, can the Sonic R System yield an average of 30 pips per day? That is 150 pips weekly.

1) I esitmate that on the average, there are at least 3 asian session moves weekly thay should yield 20 pips minimum. And I think this is a VERY conservative estimate. That is 60 pips right there.

2) And I estimate that on the average, there are at least 3 early euro session moves weekly that should yield 40 pips minimum. And I think this too, is a VERY conservative estimate. That is another 120 pips.

These estimates are assuming trading only Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. And trading opportunities of the late euro and early US sessions are excluded. Of couse, we are talking averages. Some weeks more, some less. And some trade yields will be more, and some less. And, some trades will develop into longer duration trades, not yielding at all in the week they get started, because they won't be closed that week. But they will run into the following week, and maybe for a much greater yield.

Sonikers, these are just my estimates. To help out this person with his question, if any here have helpful opinions, please post them. OK?

Regards,
-TAH
  • #16,028
  • Dec 20, 2010 6:31pm Dec 20, 2010 6:31pm
Quoting msmarple
dksolo, could you tell me what moving average(s) you have on top of the 89 ? Maybe 150 or 200 ? Thank you.

And after so many hours/days/weeks studying this thread I want to say hats off to you consistent Sonicers, especially when the market is so difficult as lately. Thank you TAH and Basber for giving me so much to learn.

I hope to contribute in the future. Awesome job with the new template !

Happy Holidays !


____________
michael
Michael, with some quick experimentation I see that dksolo is using a 233 ema line with the 89 ema line. He is using numbers from the Fibonacci Series.....1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233, etc.

-TAH
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  • #16,029
  • Dec 20, 2010 7:36pm Dec 20, 2010 7:36pm
Dose any one know what i going on... all my positions are short... is this a fake spick??
  • #16,030
  • Dec 20, 2010 7:37pm Dec 20, 2010 7:37pm
AU:

Just added to this short trade, per attached.
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  • #16,031
  • Dec 20, 2010 7:57pm Dec 20, 2010 7:57pm
this is where my short entery point is... shall i get out now and stop my loses or will prices go back down to its norma bath
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  • #16,032
  • Dec 20, 2010 8:07pm Dec 20, 2010 8:07pm
Market Comment:

A variety of pairs have just undergone a rapid pump (EJ, AU, EU, GU,...), with EU being the most significant pump and lowest spread. Apparently, some PPMs in the asian session have sought to get the price back to higher ground for a new round of short position building, because the M1 charts on these pairs confirm heavy trading continued after the pumps.

Only lunatics run the price up and then keep it there while they build long positions!
  • #16,033
  • Dec 20, 2010 8:28pm Dec 20, 2010 8:28pm
Quoting pips_buster
this is where my short entery point is... shall i get out now and stop my loses or will prices go back down to its norma bath
EU:

The upper whole number is a resistance area. This price movement was quick, and then with prices lingering at the highs. This is typical of the Pump and Dump strategy, where the PPMs execute a rapid rise in price, not because they are going long, but because they want higher prices to build a short position. Therefore the rise is quick, and then the price is held high while they engage in the intent of the pump.....build a short position.

Therefore, on the surface, there is the confidence that eventually they will get around to the "Dump" part of the pump and dump strategy, where having completed the building of their short position, they will start driving the price back down to begin creating profits for themselves.

There is this concern, however. As the day rolls on, other PPMs might do the same, taking the price even higher. The upper whole number is resistance, but that does not mean the euro traders can't and won't drive the price up thru it to do their short building above that area.

The Daily chart shows that the market is very bearish on this. The last above average volume move was 4 days back when the price plummeted. This leads me to believe any and all moves up are nothing more than the market movers trying to keep regaining highs for more shorting. They short it, sell it off, and pump it up to short it again.

You need to go over the charts and make up your own mind up as to how you want to manage your trade.
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  • #16,034
  • Dec 20, 2010 8:34pm Dec 20, 2010 8:34pm
EU:

Acquired a short position at 1.3190. This is not SonicR. And I also have another running short trade with an average EP of 1.3260. But this pump was just too grand to pass up. And if it continues substantially, I'll add again.

I am very bearish on this pair. And I think the market is, too.
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  • #16,035
  • Dec 20, 2010 8:35pm Dec 20, 2010 8:35pm
many thanx Traderathome
  • #16,036
  • Edited Dec 21, 2010 8:09am Dec 20, 2010 9:12pm | Edited Dec 21, 2010 8:09am
The Anatomy of the "Pump":

Look at the volume study below the chart. There are two blocks. Which block do you think ends up having the most volume? Block A, or B?

In order to pump the price, the PPMs (Professional Price Manipulators) have to supply, at each pip level, "balancing" buy orders orders for unbalanced sell orders sitting there at each level. That way, they can move the price up to the next level and satisfy all unbalanced sell orders there too, and move on up to the next level. It means the PPMs end up with a long position being built on the way up. But that position is making profit as the pump continues. At the end of the pump, they work to close the profitable long position and build their short position, which will become profitable once they start the "Dump".

You can see why the PPMs try to make the pump as quick as possible. It keeps others from adding more short orders at various levels which the PPMs would have to take the long side of!

Now, back to the PA and Volume blocks. Obviously, there is a lot of volume in block A for the pump. It is required to settle the short order imbalances at all levels up to the desired highs the PPMs want the price at. But as much as that volume is, look at the volume in block B! And as time goes on, it just gets bigger and bigger! And look at the favorable prices for block B for closing longs and going short, compared to before the pump!

And another consideration is, that it is not all that hard to close the acquired long position at the highs. If other traders have stops on their short positions that get hit, those shorts can only be closed with a buy order. And guess who has longs they are willing to sell! It all works to the advantage of the PPMs. There is a demand for their long position due to the stop out of shorts of other traders! They have to "buy" to close out their shorts, and the PPMs have the longs to "sell" to them! The PPMs long position gets closed as stopped out shorts get closed, which can actually be happening as the upper part of the pump progresses to the top.

Now you understand the anatomy (and profitability) of the "Pump".

Regards,
-TAH
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  • #16,037
  • Dec 20, 2010 10:36pm Dec 20, 2010 10:36pm
Quoting traderathome
Michael, with some quick experimentation I see that dksolo is using a 233 ema line with the 89 ema line. He is using numbers from the Fibonacci Series.....1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233, etc.

-TAH
Thanks TAH, I thought something like that....very helpful.






____________
michael
Be like water.
  • #16,038
  • Dec 20, 2010 11:03pm Dec 20, 2010 11:03pm
GU:

This pair is close to being set up for a SonicR short.

Edit: Entered short at 129.98, an early entry to the SonicR setup in progress. I have another short trade running with a higher EP, but that is another matter.
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  • #16,039
  • Dec 21, 2010 12:13am Dec 21, 2010 12:13am
Quoting traderathome
GU:

This pair is close to being set up for a SonicR short.

Edit: Entered short at 129.98, an early entry to the SonicR setup in progress. I have another short trade running with a higher EP, but that is another matter.
I don't think so. I think This pair close to being setup for LONG.
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  • #16,040
  • Dec 21, 2010 12:30am Dec 21, 2010 12:30am
Quoting TraderViet
I don't think so. I think This pair close to being setup for LONG.
You could be right. And there is a GBB red release in 3 hours, so the timing would be just right for a pump up to the release, and THEN the release is used as the trigger for a bigger drive down.

Well, lets see what happens. If we don't get a bit of a long play, it may just range until the release and then drop. Lets see....
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