USD/JPY Discussion

EU MID SESSION UPDATE

Geopolitical tensions dominated the market sentiment on Monday. That’s after South Korea conducted live-firing drills. However despite threats last week, there was no retaliation from its neighbour and in fact, a North Korean official said that it doesn’t feel the need to respond to all military provocations. The risk averse sentiment saw the German Bund future briefly move above 125.00, aided by light volumes and a trigger of buy stops. Since then, prices have retreated but remain in positive territory. Elsewhere, peripheral bonds yield spreads have widened today, led primarily by the Belgian 10y bond following vague market chatter of an imminent sovereign downgrade. Worth noting that last week saw S&P rating agency put the country on rating watch negative. As such, the EUR has underperformed today as concerns continue to linger how weaker states will deal with looming 2011 debt refinancing obligations. Elsewhere, despite the risk averse sentiment, GBP remains higher against the greenback and the EUR following reports from the CBI which sees the BoE hiking rates within six months in order to curb inflation.

Source: RANsquawk

Intraday option expiry in USD/JPY seen at 83.50, trades 83.77 last
While stops are seen below 83.40.

Source: RANsquawk

Week in focus. 20th Dec

All good things come to an end...well, almost all


Last week saw the EU policy makers agree on a permanent crisis bailout mechanism after 2013, while the current
European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) is to remain at EUR 440bln. Overall, the announcement is more of a win for
the peripheral Eurozone countries than for the core as it is becoming more evident that the likes of Germany and France
are beginning to realise that they will have to turn down their hard line stance in order to keep the EU-project from falling
apart. Still, concerns over the future stability of the bloc have not been eliminated and in spite of it being so late in the
year, when the holidays are almost upon us, market participants continue to be drawn into a debate over which nation
stands next in-line for a bailout. Among the primary targets are Spain and Portugal, which continue to struggle to sell
their government paper at favourable rates and the appetite for peripheral bonds will again be tested this week amid Tbill
auctions by the Spanish debt agency on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, the Obama administration made a sharp, but a market friendly U-turn regarding the expiring Bush era tax
cuts which was signed into law by the President himself late last week. In turn, it was since the initial speculation of such
a move by Obama that prompted a consequent rise in Treasury yields, which now trade at levels that very few foresaw
when Fed's Bernanke warned of further weakness in inflation levels. However, not all is good news and those looking to
refinance, or buy a new home are now faced with higher mortgage costs. It also remains unclear how the US, at the
time when markets demand austerity, will be able to remain unscathed and sell another monstrous pool of government
bonds without facing a major hurdle along the way. Still, market-based price actions are not always derived by logical
reasoning and at present investors are giving the policy makers the benefit of the doubt and believe that the recovery
will accelerate. As such, this week's economic data releases will likely prove to be another reason to buy into a Santa
Claus rally. At the same time, light volumes will dominate the trading hours, which could in turn exacerbate the price
action. Among the plethora of macro-economic data, the stand outs include the final Q3 US GDP reading, existing and
new home sales, as well as the latest durables report.

In addition to that, this week also sees several large corporations update investors on trading for the past quarter. The
names of interest include Nike, Adobe Systems, Bed Bath & Beyond and finally the retailer Walgreen.

Written by RANsquawk.

USD/JPY – Despite a stronger USD which benefited from renewed geopolitical tensions in the Korean peninsula the pair finished the session in slight negative territory. By the closing stages of Monday the pair was trading below 84.00, implying that a convincing break below 83.50/30 will indicate a potential for further losses. Much of the attention will now turn to the BoJ target rate policy meeting where the key rate is expected to remain unchanged, however investors will scrutinise whatever comments that are subsequently released by the head of the central bank.

Source: RANsquawk

edit. ooops!
reply is in the next post.

Evening Traders!

Pretty steady day today with the North Koreans calming down and vowing not to retailiate to the Souths live fire drills. It will be interesting to see if they can stick to their word as they are known to be unpredictable and will likely provoke the South whilst their back is turned.

At the start of the day we were capped at the orange descending trend line (a continuation from last week) and were pushed sharply lower through the daily pivot point which acted extremely well from upwards pressure after the break.
A further test then break of the weekly pivot point and a follow through to the daily pivot point S1 stopped the downwards momentum.
We are currently trading back above the weekly pivot and are moving higher once again to test the descening trend line.

In tomorrows trade, a test of the daily pivot is likely and possible test of the descening trend line as noted above.
A break of yesterdays low and a drive down to test the daily pivot S1 will be on with strong support coming in at 83.50 with stops below. Once again stop hunting will be on the cards should the big boys get the opportunity before a move higher.
A bounce of the daily pivot S1 will meet resistance at 83.62 and at the descending trend line should it be respected on the initial down move.
A break of the descening trend line and a move up to 84.00 is expected with the daily pivot R1 slightly above at 84.04.

On the H4 chart we have bounced of the 6/8 MML and are moving higher up to the 7/8 line coming in at the 84.00 area which roughly coincides with the daily pivot R1 above.
A move through 84.00 and the 7/8 line and we will be back up once again at the 8/8 line which has now proven to be extremely strong resistance. Stops have been reported at 84.60 for a while now and more will be added with each failed attepmt, so these will be to big and juicy for the big boys to resist. Next resistance after 84.60 is at 85.00.
South of the current level and we will be looking for the help of the ascending trend line for a furth move north.
After this level and the next notable support areas come in at 83.00, 82.80 and 82.33 respectivly.

Good luck guys and volumes are starting to become thin, so any trades taken need to be taken with good risk:reward potentials to minimize losses.



WSF M5


WSF Updated for tomorrows trading session M5


H4

Option expiry seen in USD/JPY at 83.50 for the NY cut (1500GMT)

Source: IFR

Planning a long @ 83.50 if it gets support there, enabling tight stops

H4:

Long @ 83.51
SL @ 83.25
Erratic USD-moves could go both sides but LTL should provide some protection, lets see...

Looks good, break and pull back:

USD/JPY – After testing lows at 83.50, the pair recovered the initial losses to finish the session near the unchanged mark. As expected overnight saw the central bank governing members voting to keep the monetary policy rate on hold at 0-0.10%. However the BoJ warned of weakening factory output and business sentiment, thus assuring markets that it was focusing on downside risks to growth that may trigger further easing ahead. Attention will now turn to the release of the latest Monthly Economic Report from the BoJ. In its last release, the central bank acknowledged the fact that the speed of the economic recovery is showing signs of moderation with a potential for an outright pause in growth prospects.

Source: RANsquawk

The chart tells me a push to 8600 is on the cards within a week or so, does anyone agree?
(I will read what people have been saying before this post tomorrow when I have more time.)

Evening Traders!

Well, that's me done for the year. I want to say thank you to everyone in this thread who has helped trading USD/JPY a bit more clear. There is clearly some great traders here and I look forward to coming back in the new year.

If anyone is here to trade tomorrow, levels to look out for are:

84.10 (Daily Pivot R2)
84.00
83.92 (Daily Pivot R1)
83.89 (Yesterdays High)
Current Price is at 83.74
83.73 (Weekly Pivot Point)
83.70 (Daily Pivot Point)
83.52 (Daily Pivot S1)
83.49 (Yesterdays Low)
83.30 (Daily Pivot S2)

Good luck guys and I will see you in the new year.

I'm all done for the year too.....have a safe and happy time and I'll see you all next year

Also pre-intervention level, taking a long at 82.9

USDJPY Weekly

Price range of 78.54 to 79.42 at the same time a wave of five categories wolfy waves occur and we have AB = CD pattern since the overlap can also have a good time to buy a heavy deal that aims to get more than 100

greeting traders!

it is end of year now...

probably no aggressive movement from JPY (which is not cool)



lowest position for today 82.40, highest 83.37 according to my pivot point.

happy trading!

The US Dollar was lower againts the Yen on Tuesday. USD/JPY was trading at 82.50, down 0.38% at time of writing. it was likely to find support at 82.49, today's low, and resistance at 83.58, Thursday,s high.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar was down againts Euro and Pound. with EUR/USD gaining 0.66% to hit 1.3253 and GBP/USD rising 0.36% to hit 1.5476.
(taken from www.forexpros.com, 28 des 2010)

how about tomorrow?