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How to use the 123 strategy effectively

  • #321
  • Dec 16, 2010 1:31pm Dec 16, 2010 1:31pm
Quoting ForexSV
Paulus... I just want to say Thank you, for giving us this system.
Well im not the inventor of this set up but know what you mean ..No worries what goes round comes round in this life or the next

P
  • #322
  • Dec 16, 2010 2:34pm Dec 16, 2010 2:34pm
Jeff, you historical analysis is extremely helpful. Thank you! It is very helpful to look at each trade as you saw them and then compare them to what it is I saw and how I would have set up the trade. Your rigorous use of the Paulus rules is also very important. Thanks Lynn



Quoting stljeffbb
OK, the March results are in:

Total pips: +402.6
Pips per trade: 10.6
Pips per day:...
  • #323
  • Dec 16, 2010 3:34pm Dec 16, 2010 3:34pm
Quoting lbhales
Jeff, you historical analysis is extremely helpful. Thank you! It is very helpful to look at each trade as you saw them and then compare them to what it is I saw and how I would have set up the trade. Your rigorous use of the Paulus rules is also very important. Thanks Lynn
Thanks Lynn....just trying to help out! Now, I'm trying to figure out how the heck I'm going to implement the strategy living in the USA and not being able to catch all of the trades....

Jeff
  • #324
  • Dec 16, 2010 3:58pm Dec 16, 2010 3:58pm
simple..get the wife to trade it ..you sleep...

P
  • #325
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:01pm Dec 16, 2010 4:01pm
Quoting Paulus
I am now long both EU and GU

cheers
P
Signals looking good..will close in 1hour come what may

cheers

P
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  • #326
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:26pm Dec 16, 2010 4:26pm
Quoting Paulus
simple..get the wife to trade it ..you sleep...

P


She will definitely be seeing this post! I actually have thought of that....another thought I have is establishing a phone/email/skype tree where a few traders can rotate, when they see a 1-2-3 formed, send out the call and make the trade....

...after I get the 2010 months cataloged, I plan on looking at a specific time frame to see how many trade-able patterns form during my awake hours...either I stay up late (until 4 or 5am [and I can do this as I work late afternoons and evenings), or get up early (like at 4am or 5am, so that is 10am or 11am UK time [usually]), but I do believe I can catch many of them...

Regards...glad to see it's going well for you Paulus! http://i13.photobucket.com/albums/a2.../beefeater.gif

Jeff
  • #327
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:29pm Dec 16, 2010 4:29pm
Thanks

patients is a virtue let the game come to you..dont go hunting

Just closed EU hit its TP for +28
GU still long and active...

P
  • #328
  • Dec 16, 2010 6:26pm Dec 16, 2010 6:26pm
Quoting Paulus

patients is a virtue let the game come to you..dont go hunting
Excellent advice, and always my bane when scalping....I try to "control" the markets, and that is like trying to control the sea!

http://i13.photobucket.com/albums/a2...fbb/sailor.gif

...of course, this method is fairly far from scalping, and I have done a very quick check of February 2010 for patterns that occur (or trigger) after 11am UK, 5am my time....it actually looks good and follows your rules, especially about L,S,L,S, etc...

Statistically speaking, if a method works 60% of the time, this is distributed among all trades, even though it is possible (but note I'm not saying this is true) this method (along with any other) works better at different times of the day compared to others...

Also, I'm still trying to wrap my brain around the thing I have noticed for the three months analyzed...the winners are larger than the losers by about an 8:7 margin...not sure why this is, but it helps the bottom line!

Regards,

Jeff
  • #329
  • Dec 17, 2010 1:38am Dec 17, 2010 1:38am
Quoting Paulus
Thanks

patients is a virtue let the game come to you..dont go hunting

Just closed EU hit its TP for +28
GU still long and active...

P
Closed the GU as the Asian started for +25

60% is good ..but then often starts the hunt to make it better which uses up time and precious energy..

we find a way of eliminating a loss from yesterday... But we then have to go back over all the trades in our recorded history and check every single signal often knocking out loads of great winners in the process

better in my opinion to reduce the stop loss so increasing risk return or increase winning pips so increasing risk return..Iv had a look at going for larger tp's as you know but thats tough esp on the 5min time frame because of the noise you cant filter.

better to look at the Stop loss

P
  • #330
  • Dec 17, 2010 1:52am Dec 17, 2010 1:52am
Looking at this week figures only it looks viable to set TP as normal ie distnace from 1 to 2 but set distance of SL 1 to 3

This drastically reduces the SL on EU this week it knock out a -59 loser and replaces it with a -27 but knocks out a +41 winner

Its worth a look I think and will now monitor

cheers

P
  • #331
  • Dec 17, 2010 3:05am Dec 17, 2010 3:05am
We had a 4hr shooting star, 15 min neg close candle and this shooting star with little/no lower wick. I usually enter before 2 point unless 15 min closes in that area.

Never followed through after stall at D pivot 9879, 15 min closed as a doji exit +14, initial stop 13.
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  • #332
  • Dec 17, 2010 3:06am Dec 17, 2010 3:06am
Quoting stljeffbb
Also, I'm still trying to wrap my brain around the thing I have noticed for the three months analyzed...the winners are larger than the losers by about an 8:7 margin...not sure why this is, but it helps the bottom line!

Regards,

Jeff
The TP is the range from 1 to 2 which is extended from 3, whilst the s/l is the range from 2 to 3 (plus spread on entry and exit). So if all 3's need to retrace to at least .618 and allowing for spread (especially critical on the smaller time frames plus depending on the broker platform you use) it would mean that your TP will be bigger than your SL. So roughly that should help clarify the difference. So you end up with actually have a 60% hit rate with a R:R of 1.15 (8:7).

Nice job, you've improved the efficiency of the method by 15% whilst asleep....

On bigger time frames, or if you have a tight price broker, then I would expect that you can improve on this R:R. A pip or two on a 20 pip entry is 10% of your potential profit whereas on an higher time frame entry which has a 80 pip TP then it's only 2.5%.
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #333
  • Dec 17, 2010 3:20am Dec 17, 2010 3:20am
I've 2 long EU & EG
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  • #334
  • Dec 17, 2010 4:01am Dec 17, 2010 4:01am
Best setup 123 on 5min
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Close EU +30 & EG +10
  • #335
  • Dec 17, 2010 4:04am Dec 17, 2010 4:04am
I thought the London open time was 3 AM in NewYork, but forexfacory has it at 4 am? Which is it?

BTW, I have been using a version of this method for tha past 2 months. It is the best thing I have done for my trading and understanding PA.
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #336
  • Dec 17, 2010 7:19am Dec 17, 2010 7:19am
First post to this thread but I have been following for some time as I trade this as one of my methods... See attached chart for possible upcoming trade with break of point 2. Nice bear 15m candle off of 38.2 fib.

Have to be careful with TP though as the 1.5500 level is very close and has proven to be strong support every time we have attempted to break since end of November.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #337
  • Dec 17, 2010 7:21am Dec 17, 2010 7:21am
And a possible EURUSD also...
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #338
  • Dec 17, 2010 7:25am Dec 17, 2010 7:25am
Quoting pres78
First post to this thread but I have been following for some time as I trade this as one of my methods... See attached chart for possible upcoming trade with break of point 2. Nice bear 15m candle off of 38.2 fib.
It is a 1 2 3 but risk much higher than the original 1 2 3 entry above 5600. We are short of 14 atr who knows, thats a heck of a hammer on 1hr though.
  • #339
  • Dec 17, 2010 7:32am Dec 17, 2010 7:32am
Quoting Vantage
It is a 1 2 3 but risk much higher than the original 1 2 3 entry above 5600. We are short of 14 atr who knows, thats a heck of a hammer on 1hr though.
Yes I actually editted my post to add that we are also very close to 1.5500 level that has been strong support many times in the past. Plus this time of year ATR's are tough to gauge as movement can be very sparatic with huge days like Monday on the EUR and then quiet days like yesterday. Bad time of year to trade with any real predictability on how much pairs will move. I missed the earlier one... if this one does break I will trail with a tight SL. Price may just range also for the rest of the day...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #340
  • Dec 17, 2010 7:38am Dec 17, 2010 7:38am
I have 1 trade only today so far GU for +28 which was a short

Im now looking at 123 long counts

have 123 in place on GU and EU atm...orders set for the break of the 2 level but no where near yet...and it could change

In fact as i type this the GU just made lower low so I start my 1 count agin

P
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