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  • #347,401
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:29pm Dec 16, 2010 12:29pm
Quoting TexasforEX
A bit of choppy PA is not enough to validate the bulls case. Right now everything I see, 4 confirming methods, supports the bears.
tip toe the bs.. look at the monthly closed.... then look at the weekly.... not as a single candle.. look at the week collectively. i see the super dome.. with a antenna..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #347,402
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:29pm Dec 16, 2010 12:29pm
Quoting The Fool
ok I think usd selling will make a bit of a comeback. Its the right time of year for it, Santa Claus needs his cut y'know. I am long at .3220 sl 3194 tp 3259 for a 1% risk. naptime... gla
8 hrs later and the rate is in the same place. Not trading this time of day though. Maybe still chances for some good moves in Friday Asia and after but I'll be off until the week after Christmas
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #347,403
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:29pm Dec 16, 2010 12:29pm
Quoting attila
demand, there's always demand. the supply is what moves the market. so when the price is dropping they buy and so they dry up the supply. then the price moves up in their favor. when the herd figures out what's going on, they start to buy as well. the smart money then sells into the herd buying and they flood the supply. the price then drops, the herd is holding the bags.

very simple actually.
I doubt the major player buy since the fall from 4280 LOL, it surely would bankrupt them...
Good day, I'm okay. Bad day, I'm okay. What's the difference?
  • #347,404
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:31pm Dec 16, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
tip toe the bs.. look at the monthly closed.... then look at the weekly.... not as a single candle.. look at the week collectively. i see the super dome.. with a antenna..
The charts are definitely bearish. 1 glance everything is clear
  • #347,405
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:32pm Dec 16, 2010 12:32pm
Quoting aiyoyo
I doubt the major player buy since the fall from 4280 LOL, it surely would bankrupt them...
oh well.... think what you want.
  • #347,406
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:32pm Dec 16, 2010 12:32pm
i still think this is strictly bearish, can't see going above .3276 without major knee-jerk.
In a world of Bulls & Bears ... I'm a Motha Fkn T-Rex
  • #347,407
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:33pm Dec 16, 2010 12:33pm
Quoting aiyoyo
I doubt the major player buy since the fall from 4280 LOL, it surely would bankrupt them...
bankrupt? nah, that is what hedging and futures are for!
In a world of Bulls & Bears ... I'm a Motha Fkn T-Rex
  • #347,408
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:34pm Dec 16, 2010 12:34pm
This thing is going down for sure now. I just can't see some upward momentum currently for eurusd. Might even testing the previous daily swing low...
  • #347,409
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:34pm Dec 16, 2010 12:34pm
Quoting attila
oh well.... think what you want.
OK
just trying to understand how the major player play.

It's time too off too bed..good night everyone...
Good day, I'm okay. Bad day, I'm okay. What's the difference?
  • #347,410
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:34pm Dec 16, 2010 12:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
think about it..china buying is no different then the others selling. its all set up so some body in the media is told someone is buying. they even claim it is china or whoever.
hell if i was long in a red trade id say china and the moon was buying. who pays the media? the guys in the red trade.
Let's put conspiracy theories aside for a moment and take a stab at a logical explanation first...

China is a huge player in the currency markets, that's no secret. Like any huge player in any market, they accumulate large positions. When this happens and those positions become profitable that trader needs to consider paper profits and realized gains. What I mean is, what is shown on paper will most likely not be what's realized in the end. When you have extremely large positions, you simply can't liquidate at a given price and expect to be done with it like us little guys can. So... when an opportunity comes along (a big move, news event, etc) that gives you a large market to absorb your position... you take advantage of it and liquidate in order to get the best price with least effect on the market.

This is why China is often buying in downtrends and selling in uptrends. This is also why so many people buy at the highs and sell at the lows. When trends get strong is generally when the "masses" start flowing in, providing a market capable of absorbing very larger traders' positions. They've got the supply and their getting rid of it because it's the most opportune time.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #347,411
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:36pm Dec 16, 2010 12:36pm
Quoting Texaspips
no no, I meant that you CANNOT see the actual volume, what you are talking about, IMO isn't volume but activity that is measured differently, and that would be like an indicator ... lagging.

Okay, we were talking about two different things, if you don't look at currency futures, I would open up an account & check it out. It can help with this spot trading.
I agree with forex and volume information for a retail trader.

In my case, not even futures volume are that useful in small timeframes. Yes sometimes you can confirm an exhaustion bar here or there or low vol continuation, etc (but it is as clear or blur as with price bars alone) but I don't think that can be put in a consistent trading plan.

IMO, there are some valid approaches for volume in terms of trade intensity and velocity that can be (there are) exploit with fast auto algorithms using tick/volume information but that is beyond my scope and interest. A canned vol indicator in a forex chart is, in general, irrelevant at best or it repeats information already on a chart.

In the best case scenario a constant volume bar chart is a lot more useful than just vol/price relations in forex small timeframes. This is my view based on my experience but I recognize that there are some traders who can have better and more positive arguments for that relation (i.e malcomb).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #347,412
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:37pm Dec 16, 2010 12:37pm
i am wondering if some of the guys posting here are getting paid for talking sheer bullshit.
  • #347,413
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:37pm Dec 16, 2010 12:37pm
Hello all, I'm new around and I've been following the forum for sometime now. I've found a lot of good opinions and had the chance to learn from a lot of them. However, I still strugle to keep up with some strategies and technical analysis and try to learn from the charts. At the moment I'm trading with a practice account and, off ocurse, have lost some "money" but I've been recovering my loston the last days. I have the Ed Ponsi strategies book and encyclopedia of candlesticksfrom Bolkowski...is there some more useful literature that you could recommend please? Thank you.

At the moment I'm short @3218 waiting for the bpc to keep going...

Wish you all a good hunting for pips. Thanks a lot
  • #347,414
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:38pm Dec 16, 2010 12:38pm
Quoting Geppy
Let's put conspiracy theories aside for a moment and take a stab at a logical explanation first...

China is a huge player in the currency markets, that's no secret....
I gotta agree with gatorinla, if I understand his stance, big bank trades {not only currency, but everything} can/is done completely anonymously, if they want you to know ... they release a statement, other then that ... one could always speculate, why do you think the news always says 'a bank from China' or 'a bank from Europe', etc.?.
In a world of Bulls & Bears ... I'm a Motha Fkn T-Rex
  • #347,415
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:41pm Dec 16, 2010 12:41pm
let me ask you this - when price is going down, someone is selling and someone is buying. do you know who does each? as gator said, for each sell there is a buy (and viceversa).

who is selling, and who is buying? it is very important that you understand the answer to these questions...

Quoting aiyoyo
I do not understand this. What for they buy into downtrend? What good for tanking the falling?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #347,416
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:42pm Dec 16, 2010 12:42pm
Quoting Texaspips
I gotta agree with gatorinla, if I understand his stance, big bank trades {not only currency, but everything} can/is done completely anonymously, if they want you to know ... they release a statement, other then that ... one could always speculate, why do you think the news always says 'a bank from China' or 'a bank from Europe', etc.?.
Point me in the direction of PR stating banks that are selling or buying currencies. It's from news sites like Forexlive.com that post these things. They get them from contacts after years and years of being in the industry. It's called "who you know" and "friends" that whisper in your ear when they put large orders in for them.

SHEEESH!

Goldman will sometimes have news releases saying crap about different currencies, but those are blatant news releases... not like these whispers AT ALL!
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #347,417
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:43pm Dec 16, 2010 12:43pm
nah... you think?

Quoting Mr Hatch
i am wondering if some of the guys posting here are getting paid for talking sheer bullshit.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #347,418
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:44pm Dec 16, 2010 12:44pm
I have a really basic question..

what is volume (in practical terms)?

is it the number of trades opened in a period of time?
or
the number of lots used in that period of time?
or
something else?
  • #347,419
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:44pm Dec 16, 2010 12:44pm
Quoting Geppy
Point me in the direction of PR stating banks that are selling or buying currencies. It's from news sites like Forexlive.com that post these things. They get them from contacts after years and years of being in the industry. It's called "who you know" and "friends" that whisper in your ear when they put large orders in for them.

SHEEESH!

Goldman will sometimes have news releases saying crap about different currencies, but those are blatant news releases... not like these whispers AT ALL!
P.S. If you're STILL struggling with this concept, go read Reminiscence of a Stock Operator... it's explained in detail in that book along with many other lessons you'd probably benefit from.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #347,420
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:46pm Dec 16, 2010 12:46pm
Quoting Geppy
Point me in the direction of PR stating banks that are selling or buying currencies. It's from news sites like Forexlive.com that post these things. They get them from contacts after years and years of being in the industry. It's called "who you know" and "friends" that whisper in your ear when they put large orders in for them.
Sorry, I have to disagree there. They trade through a centralized network and they pay a lot of money to do so. The 'contacts' you are referring to ... wait, let me ask you this.

are you assuming they have contacts, or do you know 100% for sure they have contacts?

I refuse to believe they do. Just like no one knows your trades you are conducting but your bank that you are trading with.
In a world of Bulls & Bears ... I'm a Motha Fkn T-Rex
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