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Sonic R. System

  • #15,921
  • Dec 16, 2010 9:11am Dec 16, 2010 9:11am
Quoting Pumlitch
Hi friend,
Been there
That's exactly what I have experienced. The more things I have learned I'm trying to apply ("over-apply") in my trading, the worse the results are.
It is simply complicated (sounds good ) and If you find the way how to make it easy, you win.

A trader have to understand lot of things but it's selfdestructive to try to apply them all in one moment.

I see the PA today is boring (EU, EJ I trade). Lucky that I'm at work so I still have something to do

Cheers guys
It's going to be last days of current year, so price may do some crazy things. I'll not going to open new trades until the X'mas is over. Recently I have EU and GU short.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #15,922
  • Dec 16, 2010 9:18am Dec 16, 2010 9:18am
Quoting nando_rich
HI:

i'm long on EU.

Regards.
stopped out -57 pips
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #15,923
  • Dec 16, 2010 9:43am Dec 16, 2010 9:43am
Quoting mauroby
hi folks.....
dear TAH can you tell e something about volume study on this pair?

is it ready for up?

bye....


still in this trade

1/3 closed a whole number 1.0075 (+30 pips)
2/3 waitng for FE 161 and stop at open

bye
mau
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  • #15,924
  • Dec 16, 2010 9:53am Dec 16, 2010 9:53am
Quoting nando_rich
stopped out -57 pips
I've discussed this few times. There are some circumstances that should've been considered during this setup. I was watching this pair too, and as long as I have a short position with around +150 pips in the time you entered, I was looking to cover my short if I saw a long position and change to long. But I didn't, Here's why (in order of importance):


Introduction (!) :
You see two different wave analysis. In fact the first one is more like a double bottom than a L-H-LH formation (white one).

First I want to compare these two :
in the white wave, he didn't have a significant HL and the first leg up was not very powerful due to the bearish movement. But as you can see in the yellow wave analysis, wave is bigger, HL is very clear and price passed the dragon and even reached to 89EMA (I don't want to make it indicatorial (!!), I mean it's not the dragon or 89ema that matters, it's the size of the leg up.)


First :
It's crucial for me to see a BIG wave (in matter of lengh and height) to take a countertrend trades like this. The white wave, as I mentioned, was very small due to the bearish move. And the yellow wave, as I market it into the yellow circle, did not give a setup (candle didn't closed above the dragon). That was a wave that could lead to a good move up.

Second :
look at the candle while yellow wave was formed ... Long shadows usually upside ones ... That's a very clear sign for a bearish move. At least if wouldn't confirm the long trade.

Third :
In these kind of trades (going long after a big move down with a general downtrend), I like to see the trendline in second picture broken. And it didn't as you can see.


Conclusion :
If I wanted to cover my short and go long, I would've liked to trade the yellow wave with proper candle formations that confirm my long and after the break of the candle with a good volume at the lows.


The funny thing is that a short setups appears after your SL hit. I didn't took it, because first, I was already in this trade, and second, it's right into a S&R level. (third pic)


After all, it's just my 2 cents ... Hope it helps

Regards,
Basber
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #15,925
  • Dec 16, 2010 9:59am Dec 16, 2010 9:59am
Quoting Basber
Let's see what will happen next ...

Regards,
Basber

Quoting Basber
Closed 3/5 of position with +128 pips. I brought SL to BE & Revised the TPs :

TP2 : 1.3150 (will close 1/5)
TP3 : 1.3030 (will close the other 1/5)

Let's see what will happen next.

Regards,
Basber
Closed one of the 1/5 s because of the S&R.
Till now :
TP1 : +128 pips (hit)
TP2 : +201 pips (hit)
TP3 @ 1.3030

SL still @ BE.

Regards,
Basber
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #15,926
  • Edited 10:43am Dec 16, 2010 10:28am | Edited 10:43am
Quoting Basber
I've discussed this few times. There are some circumstances that should've been considered during this setup. I was watching this pair too, and as long as I have a short position with around +150 pips in the time you entered, I was looking to cover my short if I saw a long position and change to long. But I didn't, Here's why (in order of importance):


Introduction (!) :
You see two different wave analysis. In fact the first one is more like a double bottom than a L-H-LH formation (white one).

First I want to compare these two :
in the white...
Thanks basber ...of course it help...

I'm learning a lot of yours posts.

Regards.
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #15,927
  • Dec 16, 2010 10:30am Dec 16, 2010 10:30am
Basber Nice work
  • #15,928
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:46pm Dec 16, 2010 12:46pm
Quoting traderathome
EU:

This could be getting set up for another drop. Look at PA and volume. The higher the price "was worked up", the higher the volume of trades. And there is no telling how large some of those trades might be! This is an impressive display of volume, since the dark bars represent activity that is more than TWICE the average....more than TWICE the average that was actually rapidly increasing with each new higher bar included in that average! And again, this is just a count of trades off the FXDD server. And there is no telling how large those...
It was the short term senario. The price got hiked twiice. The first hike enabled the asian, early euro, Frankfurt and London PPMs to load up short. The second hike enabled the US PPMs to do the same. Then, like yesterday, they left it for the US PPMs to pull the rug......biggest volume of all as the pre-placed closeout of the shorts took effect. Not a very big move, all-in-all, 84 pips max. But, since we've no idea the size of some of those trades, the PPMs could have raked in millions (Nickel and dime stuff for them). Then, lest questions be asked, they restored the price to where it was when they started their manipulations.

Well, even the rich and manipulative need to make some money regularly. Welcome to the holidays.
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  • #15,929
  • Dec 16, 2010 1:36pm Dec 16, 2010 1:36pm
formation - a diamond, a good signal to continue the trend
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  • #15,930
  • Dec 16, 2010 3:41pm Dec 16, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting Eynshteyn
formation - a diamond, a good signal to continue the trend
Yes. And confirmed by the PA-Volume study. Look at the volume once price was worked to the last highs. That is a selloff on more than twice the average volume. Similar situations on other euro pairs and dollar pairs...signs the euro is weakening and the dollar is strengthening.

By the way, Eynshteyn, I see you continue to use the former version of FFCal Headlines. It had problems. They were all resolved in the SonicR FFCal Headlines indicator, which also offers better warning of what is coming since it carries 4 headlines instead of just 2.

Folks, I recommend to all that continue to use the May 2010 released package of templates and indicators, that you upgrade to the December 2010 released package!

-TAH
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  • #15,931
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:05pm Dec 16, 2010 4:05pm
EU:

Interesting PA-Volume study on H4. Here it clearly shows how today's price drop was highly participated in. And what is very interesting about the PA-Volume study is that after each of the selloffs that caused the price drops (long lower wicks), the PPMs were careful to bring the price back up, as though "resetting the price" for future selloffs.

This is bearish. And a bearish outlook is supported by the Daily chart, where we find a perfect pinbar with high volume associated with price reaching new highs.....an obvious sign of the high activity associated with closing longs and opening shorts, which is the sole reason the PPMs pumped the price up there.
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  • #15,932
  • Dec 16, 2010 5:09pm Dec 16, 2010 5:09pm
Quiz For Sonikers!

What is wrong with the setup in progress?
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  • #15,933
  • Dec 16, 2010 5:14pm Dec 16, 2010 5:14pm
Quoting traderathome
Quiz For Sonikers!

What is wrong with the setup in progress?

Volume in the low and the angle in the dragon?
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #15,934
  • Edited 5:34pm Dec 16, 2010 5:23pm | Edited 5:34pm
Quoting nando_rich
Volume in the low and the angle in the dragon?
Absolutely correct, nando_rich!

There is a 3rd item, too, and closely related to the two parts of your correct answer. The asian session can often provide very nice looking setups, that go nowhere. That means they can show some volume and some correct angle of the Dragon......and still go maybe less than 15 pips.

But your answer is the correct one. If we had volume and good angle, we might venture a trade, but with a very tight SL. But as this one is, it is to be avoided. Perhaps after a leg down, and then another leg up (and with volume this time) we might also see the Dragon starting to angle down and a good setup being created.

-TAH
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  • #15,935
  • Dec 16, 2010 5:53pm Dec 16, 2010 5:53pm
AU:

This Daily chart was in a post last week. Since then, PA moved back up to create a higher (better) right shoulder. And look how beautifully SonicR mates with this formation!

The final leg down has to develop more. As it does, the Dragon will start to angle down. I anticipate the Neckline will co-incide nicely with the EP zone. And the target is approximately 500 pips below.

Over the last couple of days gold and silver have been falling against the dollar. And AU is closely linked to that relationship; if gold falls, so does AU. Gold and silver moved up as we approached the month of December, and most likely to demands by jewelry producers. But the jewelry is made and on the shelves ready to be purchased, so production demands are likely now on the downside and might not start coming back up until until needed for jewelry for Valentine's Day in February.

So, for a month or more, a bearish sentiment on AU might be correct.....and profitable.

-TAH
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  • #15,936
  • Edited 7:15pm Dec 16, 2010 6:15pm | Edited 7:15pm
AU:

On this pair, here is the possibility I am looking for today. Between now and Frankfurt open, the PA makes another low, below the blue support line. Then the Frankfurt/London traders move it up. If it stops at the blue support line and starts to fall, then that may be the setup. But if PA moves higher than the support line, then possibly we see another leg down, then the US session moves it back up to the support line. And that may be the top of the final leg of the setup.

That is all speculative. No matter how PA runs, I am looking for increasing volume on the middle leg of the WAVE. That will tell me the PPMs are moving price up while loading up on shorts.

The background red and blue dotted lines are the whole number levels, above and below the Bid line. As you can see, PA is currently dealing with resistance at a whole number level. The next whole number level down is within the average range, and a viable target.

Edit: Added M5 and M1 charts that shows some PPM outfit during this asian session just manipulted the price up. The high volume indicates heavy shorting activity at the highs, which can be proven by looking at the volume on the M1 chart....the two very highest bars were AFTER the price was pumped over the whole number mark. This is typical price manipulation by PPMs to gain the high ground as part of their short building strategy. I made a non-SonicR short entry here....very small. This might just be one of many such pumps to come over upcoming hours.

And I hope Kevinchan sees and reads this, since he does not believe PPMs exist, nor does he believe there are such things as "pumps" and "dumps".
They do, and there are. And it is a good thing to be aware of, lest you believe too much in your indicators. Because, at any time, price can suddenly move in the opposite direction.....and THEY are the reason why!

Edit: Added 4th chart, another M1 as a follow-up. Here we clearly see that the first and highest volume bar was AFTER the PPM got the price above the whole number (blue dotted support line, now below Bid). And since then the price has remained above the whole number as the PPM is building the short position. I mean, geez, it HAS to be short building, right? The professional trading concern that is doing this would have to be nuts to manipulate the price up, and then build a "long" position!

Regards,
-TAH
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  • #15,937
  • Dec 16, 2010 10:33pm Dec 16, 2010 10:33pm
As for medium TF(d1) prediction, I m bullish on GU as long as 1.548x level holds...
I will use sonic dragon n wave for entry(M15) as not to get caught at long entry at high price, if case it turns..


Sonic

Reporting via iPhone,sorry no pic..
  • #15,938
  • Dec 16, 2010 10:53pm Dec 16, 2010 10:53pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
As for medium TF(d1) prediction, I m bullish on GU as long as 1.548x level holds...
I will use sonic dragon n wave for entry(M15) as not to get caught at long entry at high price, if case it turns..


Sonic

Reporting via iPhone,sorry no pic..
Sonikers, I have drawn a chart based on what Sonic just posted. And the Daily chart shows the 1.548x support level he refers to.

Hope this helps,
-TAH
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  • #15,939
  • Dec 16, 2010 11:37pm Dec 16, 2010 11:37pm
EU:

PA has moved up to whole number resistance area. Volume over past two days has been increasing volume on upward thrusts to highs, and spikes on drives down off the highs. The first indicates pumps up with increasing selling as the pump progresses. This would be closing of longs and acquistion of shorts. The later indicates massive shorting off the highs. Both are extremely bearish.

And this is what we are faced with going into prime trading hours today. Personally, I would not be surprised to see the price pumped across the whole number resistance area, and further, while the PPMs acquire shorts, building a short position for a move down. A move down from there could be the first leg of our WAVE for a short setup.

Perhaps something as shown in the pic. But no matter how the PA actually turns out, my bet is it includes at least one pump above the whole number area.

And, if EU drops precipitously today, I would not hold out much for a GU long trade.

-TAH
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  • #15,940
  • Dec 16, 2010 11:51pm Dec 16, 2010 11:51pm
AU:

One or more PPMs executed three pumps that they shorted into. I made small non-SonicR short entries on each of the three pumps; at 0.9905, 0.9915, and 0.9925 for an average of 0.9915.

The current move down might be constructing the first leg of a WAVE for a SonicR short setup. The Dragon is already turning down. The Frankfurt/London PPMs might construct the second leg of the WAVE with a pump of their own..

This is not SonicR, not yet. And it is higher risk. The Frankfurt/London PPMs could do more than just a modest pump-to-short, and actually drive PA much higher, turning this into a long play instead.

WARNING: Speculation!
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