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  • #346,961
  • Dec 16, 2010 3:58am Dec 16, 2010 3:58am
I think we will get some action now 1h bar rejection..

Ill be looking for a short if it shows..
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  • #346,962
  • Dec 16, 2010 3:58am Dec 16, 2010 3:58am
  •  apt
  • | Joined Oct 2010 | Status: All your cookies are belong to me. | 1,114 Posts
Quoting Texaspips
dailyfx next comment ...

"$EURUSD: Backing off session highs after market digests latest Spanish auction results, realizing they were not as solid as reported."

lol, point proven. Propaganda.
nice
  • #346,963
  • Dec 16, 2010 3:59am Dec 16, 2010 3:59am
Quoting Vladimir1987
I think we will get some action now 1h bar rejection..

Ill be looking for a short if it shows..
Attachment
is that the 20 ema on your chart?
Trends, breakouts, price action.
  • #346,964
  • Dec 16, 2010 3:59am Dec 16, 2010 3:59am
  •  apt
  • | Joined Oct 2010 | Status: All your cookies are belong to me. | 1,114 Posts
Quoting Texaspips
AUD/NZD is at all time high {area}, good time to sell soon for a couple pips. Today has been, not a good day , but an easy day.
at what point do you sell , I was going to sell at 1.3300 which is also a 10 year high, and it kept going up.

NZD news keeps being bad.
  • #346,965
  • Dec 16, 2010 3:59am Dec 16, 2010 3:59am
Good morning Ladys and Gents,

I have just updated the Elliott Wave count on my blog, which can be accessed through my signature.

Has wave 4 already concluded?



Judging from the structure of the move down from the 3498 top on various TF's I would say no.



On 30min TF I can count an impulse down, but on 4h or 1h we get problems with that.



So I mainly think, that the wave orange 4 has not concluded yet. So we might await upward pressure over the next day(s).



Two scenarios would fit the assumption, that wave orange 4 has already concluded:



Since the top at 3498 a leading diagonal is developing. This leg down from the top at 3498 could be an ABC for wave 1. So now we could expect a retracement between 3384 and 3443.

or




(judging mainly from Awesome Oscillator)
3498 to 3284 wave 1 with a very wired wave 3 (in forex we sometimes see such waves)
3284 to 3378 wave 2

3378 to 3209 wave 3 (or further subwave 1)

3209 (3206) to ??? wave 4 (or further subwave 2)

This last count I will follow closely, especially when 3163 is broken to the downside.



Alternative count at http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot....94-wave-4.html

Trade safe and stay healthy,



Markus
  • #346,966
  • Dec 16, 2010 3:59am Dec 16, 2010 3:59am
Quoting Vladimir1987
I think we will get some action now 1h bar rejection..

Ill be looking for a short if it shows..
Attachment
what are you waiting for? I would short now if I were you while the price is still 1.32xx + ... just IMO, for my intraday account, my stoploss is at 1.3350 now.
In a world of Bulls & Bears ... I'm a Motha Fkn T-Rex
  • #346,967
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:00am Dec 16, 2010 4:00am
Quoting aizazk
What he said!
Hes expecting a 230 pip fall for today... dont know if he sees the 180 support hmm??
  • #346,968
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:04am Dec 16, 2010 4:04am
Quoting apt
at what point do you sell , I was going to sell at 1.3300 which is also a 10 year high, and it kept going up.

NZD news keeps being bad.
my concept for 'highs' when I intraday trade is to go by factors of 10-50 pips depending on the pair.

For example, here ...

I put one lot to sell ... if it moves up 10-50 pips {in this case I am doing 20}, then I add another lot. Same for it going down. ... & I especially use fundimentals, right now, the CHF news already came out, so after it came out, I just wait for congestion which has happened ... so Now I start putting in my sell orders With an open SL & TP.

All time highs or multi-year highs are more rare, but when hey happen, I probably have 95% success rate with them {but I let them float if it doesn't go my way for a day or two if need be}.

I should also add in that I pretty much just wait until I see some sort of 5m candle indication that downtrend is over then I take profit, rather it be 1 pip or 100 pips. {most of the time in these higher risk cases I take off with only a few pips}
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In a world of Bulls & Bears ... I'm a Motha Fkn T-Rex
  • #346,969
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:04am Dec 16, 2010 4:04am
Quoting Texaspips
what are you waiting for? I would short now if I were you while the price is still 1.32xx + ... just IMO, for my intraday account, my stoploss is at 1.3350 now.
100 pips s/l for an intraday trade is a NO-NO.
  • #346,970
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:05am Dec 16, 2010 4:05am
Quoting aizazk
is that the 20 ema on your chart?
Its an sma..
  • #346,971
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:05am Dec 16, 2010 4:05am
pending buy stops below 3204 we might reach there. clear out all those stops and
  • #346,972
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:06am Dec 16, 2010 4:06am
Quoting Vladimir1987
Hes expecting a 230 pip fall for today... dont know if he sees the 180 support hmm??
oh when i said 'what he said' I was referring to your comment 'are you joking' lol, 230 pips 'most likely' does sound very strong bias..

anyway, i just went short @ .3228, trying out scalps...i normally trade dailies, but this just looks like a high probability one to me.
Trends, breakouts, price action.
  • #346,973
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:07am Dec 16, 2010 4:07am
Quoting T@rantula
100 pips s/l for an intraday trade is a NO-NO.
market makers might just run stops...
  • #346,974
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:07am Dec 16, 2010 4:07am
Quoting Vladimir1987
Its an sma..
meh..i have an ema there on mine
Trends, breakouts, price action.
  • #346,975
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:07am Dec 16, 2010 4:07am
Quoting T@rantula
100 pips s/l for an intraday trade is a NO-NO.
Its quite big...
While writing here missed the hour close for entry..

Waiting for pullback or a break of low to enter...
  • #346,976
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:09am Dec 16, 2010 4:09am
Quoting Vladimir1987
Its quite big...
While writing here missed the hour close for entry..

Waiting for pullback or a break of low to enter...
relax, this is not the real momentum. contracts are building up...stops are being hit to get this thing moving buy low sell high
  • #346,977
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:09am Dec 16, 2010 4:09am
Quoting blue_z_zz
they were planning to sell 3 billion but because of the shocker rate and low demand they lowered the offering tell me please how is this not bad
yeah i saw the concession note later. Not good but not terrible. And now lets see if buyers come back after the lower CPI. The euozone news docket is done for the morning. The summit in Brussels probably won't produce any buzz until very late in the day. We saw healthy USD selling before Moody's put an end to that yesterday. Not expecting them to come back in force though....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #346,978
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:10am Dec 16, 2010 4:10am
Quoting T@rantula
100 pips s/l for an intraday trade is a NO-NO.
hasn't hurt me none. And that is just on this particular trade.

and it is at 100 pips now, so I am going to move the stop-loss to 1.3279 for the time being. I have held a consistent short with my main account so I have no worries.

Thanks for the concern though, but the 1.3350 SL instead of the 1.3280 {a while ago} was in-case there was a spike from the Spain bonds &/or early leaks of news from the Summit meeting.
In a world of Bulls & Bears ... I'm a Motha Fkn T-Rex
  • #346,979
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:11am Dec 16, 2010 4:11am
Quoting aizazk
oh when i said 'what he said' I was referring to your comment 'are you joking' lol, 230 pips 'most likely' does sound very strong bias..

anyway, i just went short @ .3228, trying out scalps...i normally trade dailies, but this just looks like a high probability one to me.
If u trade daily ok could( possible will) drop that much but not in a day...

I think of a test of 180 as i said and dont expect it to be broken today... That is why i dont see 230 pips for today...

If it gets still 1.3000 is far...
  • #346,980
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:11am Dec 16, 2010 4:11am
looks like this could break support
Trends, breakouts, price action.
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