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  • #346,781
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:11am Dec 16, 2010 12:11am
Quoting gatorinla
i cant touch it.. cause oil.. i think oil will come down.. but many experts say it will be 100 before jan.. i think $3.00 plus gas will cripple the weak economy. easier money other places.
Why is it always oil or gold that influences our trades, why not sex and the price of lingerie at Victoria's Secret?
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #346,782
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:12am Dec 16, 2010 12:12am
Quoting DudeSepii
Very simple....it has drop a few hundred pips for the last few days....technically there should be some kind of rebound.

err ummm what can I say ...bloody genius ... NOT

day 1 doji .... range 140 pip
day 2 full down bar 180 pip
day 3 today ...if 3 day down pattern with eu daily range 170 pip over last 10 days could end 3120 to 3080 ... a little more if a very wide range day

there really is no valid argument to your post , just cause you say there should be a rebound as we have moved 300 pip down does not mean there will be one , unless of course you are talking 40 pip.

1.3180 to 1.3160 is key. IF this breaks then 1,3060 area target , if this holds then top of range 1.3300 target

I am favouring sells still due to the increase in rates on the 10 year last 2 days.

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #346,783
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:14am Dec 16, 2010 12:14am
Quoting gatorinla
macd says "we are going to hell".. red line and channel says "not so fast"

chf
shamu.. even here the usd is showing a little spunk.. compare to yesterdays chart in the other post. macd is coming around.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #346,784
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:16am Dec 16, 2010 12:16am
Quoting The Fool
lots of EZ news on the docket for early London and the biggest nut is what the heads might say coming out of the Brussels summit - that isn't scheduled but the thing wraps up around Brussels lunchtime so some leaks or announcements to the press should be b4 that, around mid-morning +/-, I expect some good volatility in thin market conditions. If I had to guess I'd say the debt fear reaction on Moody's etc is already priced in and that the ministers will have some soothing words that will see e/u retrace a bit into NY. But I'll believe it when I...
Couple things to consider, PA is going to be over-exaggerated for this month ... so I would personally think to see extended longs & shorts, and they might be mistaken for stronger trends then what they really are.

2cd thing is, the Moody's scenario might already be played out BUT Spain is going to be doing the whole 'Bond' thing today, so how well bonds are flowing will be key for me in the Spain Scenario. I don't think the bond market for Spain will be great due to the Moody's situation. So I think that will result in an escape to the USD. But who knows.

Only scenario for me that will play good for the Euro is if Germany & France agree to the Eurobond, but there is no way in hell Germany will do that. So unless they have a master plan tucked away, there isn't really hope for this summit.

Fool me once, shame on you, Fool me twice, Shame on me ... Hopefully investors already learned the lesson of not trusting the EU when they say 'everything is going to be fine', if they say that very vague same message today, I don't think it will go over very well.
In a world of Bulls & Bears ... I'm a Motha Fkn T-Rex
  • #346,785
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:17am Dec 16, 2010 12:17am
morning all
I SEE YOU !!
  • #346,786
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:17am Dec 16, 2010 12:17am
Quoting kidspips
Humm.

Taking some good risk, but I know acheive it.

Sold EU @ 1.3212. TP 1.3203, sl 1.3230. Risk:ratio is 2:1 which can be said risky.

But my winning possibility is 99.99% in this trade, so I can use 2:1 ratio.
Frankie will not just drop form here . I doubt, you may well be stopped out.

London closed 1.3250 , that may be tested yet and would provide a potential good sell zone.

Your trade had about 10% chance of working out at this time of day to be honest , due to the frankie fake out and 'gap ' between london close and london open of 30 pips , you going for a 9 pip trade with 18 pip stop .... I had better odds of winning than that at Vegas the last 3 days...lol
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #346,787
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:19am Dec 16, 2010 12:19am
Quoting malcolmb14
err ummm what can I say ...bloody genius ... NOT

day 1 doji .... range 140 pip
day 2 full down bar 180 pip
day 3 today ...if 3 day down pattern with eu daily range 170 pip over last 10 days could end 3120 to 3080 ... a little more if a very wide range day

there really is no valid argument to your post , just cause you say there should be a rebound as we have moved 300 pip down does not mean there will be one , unless of course you are talking 40 pip.

1.3180 to 1.3160 is key. IF this breaks then 1,3060 area target , if this holds then...
I tell you what I think...

Rectangle: MOFU TOUGH zone.

Waiting the price break above or below will take some time. Not an easy situation atm.
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  • #346,788
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:21am Dec 16, 2010 12:21am
Quoting primzvicious
lol minor... when u saw 240 youre a dead man
Quoting malcolmb14
Frankie will not just drop form here . I doubt, you may well be stopped out.

London closed 1.3250 , that may be tested yet and would provide a potential good sell zone.

Your trade had about 10% chance of working out at this time of day to be honest , due to the frankie fake out and 'gap ' between london close and london open of 30 pips , you going for a 9 pip trade with 18 pip stop .... I had better odds of winning than that at Vegas the last 3 days...lol
End.
In forex, one currency is always up!
  • #346,789
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:22am Dec 16, 2010 12:22am
I think we going down next ten minutes and were off.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #346,790
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:22am Dec 16, 2010 12:22am
This weeks volatility mostly due to quadruple witching this coming friday. These days it seems they unwind positions in the days leading up to this . Next week may go flat / less volatile once this is done

$VIX is still under 18 , meaning stock markets are not very volatile.

eu is staying within standard daily ranges , nothing unusual , other than last week daily ranges were mostly 110 pip not 160 pip



Quoting Texaspips
Couple things to consider, PA is going to be over-exaggerated for this month ... so I would personally think to see extended longs & shorts, and they might be mistaken for stronger trends then what they really are.

2cd thing is, the Moody's scenario might already be played out BUT Spain is going to be doing the whole 'Bond' thing today, so how well bonds are flowing will be key for me in the Spain Scenario....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #346,791
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:22am Dec 16, 2010 12:22am
What's mofu?
Not all sins are created equal
  • #346,792
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:24am Dec 16, 2010 12:24am
Quoting malcolmb14
Frankie will not just drop form here . I doubt, you may well be stopped out.

London closed 1.3250 , that may be tested yet and would provide a potential good sell zone.

Your trade had about 10% chance of working out at this time of day to be honest , due to the frankie fake out and 'gap ' between london close and london open of 30 pips , you going for a 9 pip trade with 18 pip stop .... I had better odds of winning than that at Vegas the last 3 days...lol
well said malc
Verily, in every difficulties there is relief
  • #346,793
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:24am Dec 16, 2010 12:24am
Quoting Jay Walker
What's mofu?
Best website in the world ... or one of them ...

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=mofu
In a world of Bulls & Bears ... I'm a Motha Fkn T-Rex
  • #346,794
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:28am Dec 16, 2010 12:28am
Quoting orangeRANGE
I tell you what I think...

Rectangle: MOFU TOUGH zone.

Waiting the price break above or below will take some time. Not an easy situation atm.
Agreed on tough area.

red lines in chart are prior high volume point of control for last 20 trading sessions

I am looking for sell off 1.3250 area ( maybe 1,3240) london close, assuming 150 pip day takes us to those high volume pivots at 1.3100 ( 2 of them there)

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  • #346,795
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:29am Dec 16, 2010 12:29am
Quoting suthmo
I think we going down next ten minutes and were off.
what about 1,3380 yesterday ? what was wrong ?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #346,796
  • Edited 12:44am Dec 16, 2010 12:33am | Edited 12:44am
Quoting Texaspips
2cd thing is, the Moody's scenario might already be played out BUT Spain is going to be doing the whole 'Bond' thing today, so how well bonds are flowing will be key for me in the Spain Scenario. I don't think the bond market for Spain will be great due to the Moody's situation. So I think that will result in an escape to the USD. But who knows.

Only scenario for me that will play good for the Euro is if Germany & France agree to the Eurobond, but there is no way in hell Germany will do that. So unless they have a master plan tucked away, there...
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...ro-credit.html

preliminary signs suggest spanish auction will not be a negative market mover. I don't have a time but the results usually are out by 1000 GMT at the latest.

I agree on the eurobond issue - nobody thinks that is coming out of this summit. and what else they might say to calm the market I don't really know. On the other hand, nothing has changed that much fundamentally: the bond vigilantes are gunning for whoever they can find in their sights and the same usual suspects are all there. If the ministers show a united front it might buy them some time short term and things will calm down a bit. The spanish auction is the last one in the EZ for the year. Meanwhile, the Fed continues OMO and is selling debt up to the last week of the year.

So all this suggests to me that the death blow for the euro will be held back until the new year. I'm just going to react to what I see, though. That's the best I can do.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #346,797
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:33am Dec 16, 2010 12:33am
Quoting Texaspips
Best website in the world ... or one of them ...

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=mofu
What's a website?
Not all sins are created equal
  • #346,798
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:36am Dec 16, 2010 12:36am
Quoting Jay Walker
What's a website?
Let me google that for you!
In a world of Bulls & Bears ... I'm a Motha Fkn T-Rex
  • #346,799
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:41am Dec 16, 2010 12:41am
Quoting Jay Walker
What's mofu?
It's another indicator people are using to make loads of cash with
rat
  • #346,800
  • Dec 16, 2010 12:42am Dec 16, 2010 12:42am
Quoting malcolmb14
due to the frankie fake out and 'gap ' between london close and london open of 30 pips ...lol
I dunno about that one kid. I have been scalping the FO pretty regularly for going on 2 years and more often than not I see FO to LO open rate differential of <10 pips
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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