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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #21,901
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:34pm Dec 15, 2010 12:34pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Getting bored, might be tempted to take a short scalp towards 83.5 around 84.20 if it resists there...

H1:

Attachment
I'm tempted
short @ 84.23
SL 84.50
Target 83.5
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #21,902
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:54pm Dec 15, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting USD-Bear
I'm tempted
short @ 84.23
SL 84.50
Target 83.5
Take care, this will be trade against 5 tops! Maybe inverted H&S could be realized maybe we could stay again in a range which will be in your favor. I'm out from this pair (it moves some way i don't like).

Take care.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #21,903
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:59pm Dec 15, 2010 12:59pm
Quoting Alki
Take care, this will be trade against 5 tops! Maybe inverted H&S could be realized maybe we could stay again in a range which will be in your favor. I'm out from this pair (it moves some way i don't like).

Take care.
Thanks for your input Alki, it's only a small bet and I agree it's risky
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #21,904
  • Dec 15, 2010 2:03pm Dec 15, 2010 2:03pm
Quoting fosking
Daily Pivot R2 and yesterdays high comes in at around 84.35. If the Dollar gets a strong foothold then this area could be within reach. Stops reported at around 84.40 just above yesterdays high so if the big boys are about they will be after them. This morning there were reports of offers around the 84.15 area so it could be quite volatile. Once it gets around the 84.50 area I would favor shorts.


WSF M5
Attachment
Volume will begin to dry up soon so we could see some consolidation after this point and a drift lower.
  • #21,905
  • Dec 15, 2010 3:03pm Dec 15, 2010 3:03pm
USD/JPY – The pair finished the session above the 84.00 level, amid renewed USD strength which rose over 0.5% following renewed uncertainty over the Eurozone and also a further rise in Treasury yields. Worth noting is that the Japanese manufacturers’ business sentiment worsened for the first time in nearly two years and fell to 5 from 8. The report shows that the nation’s economic recovery has lost steam and future growth is now at a risk of stalling.

Source: RANsquawk
  • #21,906
  • Dec 15, 2010 4:59pm Dec 15, 2010 4:59pm
Quoting fosking
USD/JPY – The pair finished the session above the 84.00 level, amid renewed USD strength which rose over 0.5% following renewed uncertainty over the Eurozone and also a further rise in Treasury yields. Worth noting is that the Japanese manufacturers’ business sentiment worsened for the first time in nearly two years and fell to 5 from 8. The report shows that the nation’s economic recovery has lost steam and future growth is now at a risk of stalling.

Source: RANsquawk
Yep, perhaps the focus will shift to the dire state of Japan's economy in the not-too-distant future. It's all 'out there' for everyone to see, but EZ and USA woes have been the focus for the past 12 months.....it's just a matter of time.....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,907
  • Dec 15, 2010 5:14pm Dec 15, 2010 5:14pm
Possible sell at resistance?
USD/JPY formed small resistance for a while.
We can see that price is in the same level and higher as it was at the end of last month, but RSI is lower, at around 60 for now.

http://img573.imageshack.us/img573/7224/usdjpyd.png

Regards,
suirad
  • #21,908
  • Dec 15, 2010 5:23pm Dec 15, 2010 5:23pm
Quoting suirad
Possible sell at resistance?
USD/JPY formed small resistance for a while.
We can see that price is in the same level and higher as it was at the end of last month, but RSI is lower, at around 60 for now.

Regards,
suirad
You'd be selling into an uptrend, so if you do it, keep your stop tight
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,909
  • Dec 15, 2010 5:41pm Dec 15, 2010 5:41pm
Quoting realjumper
You'd be selling into an uptrend, so if you do it, keep your stop tight
Yep, i see that's why my stop is 38 pips for now

Regards,
suirad
  • #21,910
  • Dec 15, 2010 6:21pm Dec 15, 2010 6:21pm
Okay, it looks like a big spiderweb mess but bear with me.
First of all I want to point out that anything white on the chart is related to the EUR/USD overlay and the red lines belong to the USD/JPY.

The chart dates back to around the start of 1996 and we can see that the EUR/USD is negatively correlated to the USD/JPY.
The one thing to note however is that in 2008 we began to see that both the EUR/USD and the USD/JPY started to make lower lows and lower highs, meaning both pairs are currently in a down trend.
The USD/JPY has recently bounced near it's 15 year low with a test of the descending trend line on the cards. This will be the area where we should have a more clear view fundamentally as well as technically.

Four possible fundamental reasons to be bullish on the USD/JPY come from:

1. The BOJ has not been shy in saying they are prepared to intervene if they see much more Yen strength.

2. Once the US starts raising interest rates again money will start flowing out of Japan and back into USD dominated accounts.

3. The on going debt crises rippling throughout the Euro Zone, weakening the Euro against the USD pushing the USDX higher helping the USD/JPY climb.

4. A weak Japanese economy.

The correlation indicator below has just started to turn the pair bullish, as both the USD and the Yen have started curling over and are looking to begin to close the gap and come together.

As the recovery in the US strengthens and once we see interest rates rise, we should see this reflected in the USD/JPY.
Until then all eyes will be on the descending USD/JPY trend line and the ascending EUR/USD trend line with a break of both pushing us up, up and away.

USD/JPY Weekly with EUR/USD overlay
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy7.png Size: 289 KB
  • #21,911
  • Dec 15, 2010 7:57pm Dec 15, 2010 7:57pm
Quoting fosking
Okay, it looks like a big spiderweb mess but bear with me.
First of all I want to point out that anything white on the chart is related to the EUR/USD overlay and the red lines belong to the USD/JPY.

The chart dates back to around the start of 1996 and we can see that the EUR/USD is negatively correlated to the USD/JPY.
The one thing to note however is that in 2008 we began to see that both the EUR/USD and the USD/JPY started to make lower lows and lower highs, meaning both pairs are currently in a down trend.
The USD/JPY has recently bounced...
Great analysis fosking, as always....thank you. I agree almost entirely with you. The only doubt I have is regarding intervention.....for the following reasons.

The Swiss made the mistake (imo) of intervening while the Euro is mid-stream of it's decline.....and they paid heavily for it. I think Japan made the same mistake. If there is no co-operation with the other central banks, and intervention is attempted, it's likely to fail. If this is done while the pa is still in decline (or climb as the case may be), I believe that intervention must be doomed to failure.....as we have seen.

I'm no economist, but if I was in Noda's shoes, rather than try to halt the rise of the Yen on my own, I would have bit the bullet and waited until it showed signs of weakness.....such as the round bottom we all saw. I think it would have stood a chance of success. But, Noda, Kan and Japan failed....and we know how the Japanese view failure.

The 'wrath' of USA was going to come after the intervention, and to my mind, Japan doesn't want to suffer that (perceived) slap-in-the-face again.

Also, the closer we get to 85.00, the less likely any intervention will occur.

Lastly, the least scientific reason.....'those that talk about it the most, do it the least'. I think Noda is nothing but hot air now....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,912
  • Dec 16, 2010 3:12am Dec 16, 2010 3:12am
Quoting realjumper
I would have bit the bullet and waited until it showed signs of weakness.....such as the round bottom we all saw. I think it would have stood a chance of success. But, Noda, Kan and Japan failed....
I can't disagree with you, especially the above statement. So what you waiting for Noda? Sell the bloody things whilst we are seeing a little weakness lol.

You are right about being filled with hot air but I wouldn't rule out a couple more interventions yet to reinforce their policy.

The Swiss National Bank began selling francs in March 2009 to curb gains against the euro, ward off deflation and bolster exports, which account for more than half the economy. The bank signaled this June that it would end the policy, saying risks of a drop in consumer prices had “largely disappeared.”

I saw an article in the Financial Times a few weeks ago saying that a big car manufacture (can't remember which one) stated that they will no longer be exporting from Japan to the US with the current rate of the Yen and will instead be manufacturing in the US instead.
Japans economy is now in such a state, having companies such as the above not exporting from Japan is not an option.
  • #21,913
  • Dec 16, 2010 3:36am Dec 16, 2010 3:36am
Quoting fosking
I saw an article in the Financial Times a few weeks ago saying that a big car manufacture (can't remember which one) stated that they will no longer be exporting from Japan to the US with the current rate of the Yen and will instead be manufacturing in the US instead.
Japans economy is now in such a state, having companies such as the above not exporting from Japan is not an option.
Yes, I saw that too....and I can't remember which manufacturer it was either!!

Japan needs to be soooo careful....if they lose market share to Korea & China....that share is gone.....forever!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,914
  • Dec 16, 2010 3:49am Dec 16, 2010 3:49am
At the daily pivot, I would favor the downside after a break of this weeks ascending trend line.
Daily S1 comes in at 83.71 with a possible break back down to the weekly pivot at 83.52.
Although 83.97 does coincide with a 0.618 Fib level so a bounce here should be expected.
Upside risks come in the form of the red resistance line and a run back up to 84.50.

WSF M5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy1.png Size: 177 KB
  • #21,915
  • Dec 16, 2010 3:54am Dec 16, 2010 3:54am
hello everybody
i have a question that is " do you think that the price of usd/jpy fall to forexample 10.00 or 01.00 means 1usd=1 jpy?
do you think that will we see this price in future? what will happen if you think so?will we lose usd/jpy pair in forex maret or we will have new price type such as usd/jpy =0.xxxx price.
can anyone answer my question perfectly?
thanks a lot
  • #21,916
  • Dec 16, 2010 3:57am Dec 16, 2010 3:57am
as a continuation from the above chart, we are sat on support on the H4 MM Lines.

USD/JPY H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy2.png Size: 171 KB
  • #21,917
  • Dec 16, 2010 4:01am Dec 16, 2010 4:01am
Quoting fosking
as a continuation from the above chart, we are sat on support on the H4 MM Lines.
We are sitting on the 6/8 pivot on the M30 as well as the 7/8 on the H1!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,918
  • Edited 4:12am Dec 16, 2010 4:02am | Edited 4:12am
Quoting mehdisa
hello everybody
i have a question that is " do you think that the price of usd/jpy fall to forexample 10.00 or 01.00 means 1usd=1 jpy?
do you think that will we see this price in future? what will happen if you think so?will we lose usd/jpy pair in forex maret or we will have new price type such as usd/jpy =0.xxxx price.
can anyone answer my question perfectly?
thanks a lot
If 1 USD was equal to 1 JPY the price be displayed as 1. Have a look at the AUD/USD chart as the pair is currently hovering around parity and should help visually.
Of course it's entirely possible to see parity and below, but I don't think think we will see it as the Yen needs to be cheaper than the USD for exports.
You are right in stating below parity price will move to 0.xxxx.
  • #21,919
  • Dec 16, 2010 5:35am Dec 16, 2010 5:35am
Despite the break of the ascending trend line on USD/JPY, it's still important to note we are above the USDX trend line over the same period showing JPY strength.

WSF M5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy3.png Size: 147 KB
  • #21,920
  • Dec 16, 2010 5:42am Dec 16, 2010 5:42am
Here's a closer look at the USDX with resistance around the 80.25 area.

USDX
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx1.png Size: 124 KB
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