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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #21,881
  • Dec 14, 2010 2:26pm Dec 14, 2010 2:26pm
Again not trading this but we are at the 0.618 Fib, so possible retracement before a continuation onto 84.00

WSF M5
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  • #21,882
  • Dec 14, 2010 3:41pm Dec 14, 2010 3:41pm
USD/JPY

The pair finished the session near the unchanged mark, after falling as low as 82.84 amid further USD weakness which dominated Tuesday morning. Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan ordered a 5% cut in the nation’s corporate tax rate starting in the next fiscal year to boost an economy that is showing signs of contraction. While the latest Japanese Industrial Production came in below the previously reported levels. Despite the initial sell-off, the second half of Tuesday's session saw the pair edge back towards the unchanged mark and in terms of technical levels going forward, the 50DMA at 82.38 represents the next major level, which once breached will indicate that momentum has turned Bearish.

Talking Forex
  • #21,883
  • Dec 14, 2010 5:09pm Dec 14, 2010 5:09pm
Quoting fosking
Despite the initial sell-off, the second half of Tuesday's session saw the pair edge back towards the unchanged mark and in terms of technical levels going forward, the 50DMA at 82.38 represents the next major level, which once breached will indicate that momentum has turned Bearish.

Talking Forex
Yeah....that's kind of what we've been saying recently, so it's encouraging that we are on the same page.

As an aside, the 100 ma on the Daily is also presenting a problem for the bulls, and I can't see me taking any long position until this level is cleared....except a scalp here and there perhaps.

I do feel for Japan because I'm pretty sure that the Yen want's to drop in value....as much as Noda, Kan and co want it to drop.....but that's not going to happen with any conviction until the EZ mess gets sorted and the USD get's it's act together.....and that may take some time.
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,884
  • Dec 14, 2010 5:37pm Dec 14, 2010 5:37pm
Quoting realjumper
I can't see me taking any long position until this level is cleared....except a scalp here and there perhaps.
I'm in the same boat until the dust settles a little more. There has been some good scalping setups over the last few trading sessions. It will just be a case of going back to basics whilst using RANsquawk and having a little fun.

I'll post any live scalps I take as I enter for shits and giggles.

Following on from my previous chart hitting the 0.618 Fib level, we are back up there after the bounce and looking to play kiss chase with 84.00 (daily R1). If sellers get in control a push down to the weekly pivot at around 83.50 is expected.
No money involved tonight as it's 12.30am and nearly bed time. Plus throughout the Asian sessions we normally just see consolidation so I would be surprised to see a strong break in either direction.
  • #21,885
  • Dec 14, 2010 5:44pm Dec 14, 2010 5:44pm
That being said, we have data out in just over 5 mins.
  • #21,886
  • Dec 14, 2010 5:46pm Dec 14, 2010 5:46pm
Quoting fosking
I'm in the same boat until the dust settles a little more. There has been some good scalping setups over the last few trading sessions. It will just be a case of going back to basics whilst using RANsquawk and having a little fun.

I'll post any live scalps I take as I enter for shits and giggles.

Following on from my previous chart hitting the 0.618 Fib level, we are back up there after the bounce and looking to play kiss chase with 84.00 (daily R1). If sellers get in control a push down to the weekly pivot at around 83.50 is expected.
No money...
Ok...I'll post some scalps too

I'm 12 hours ahead of you (at the moment) so if nothing happens after the first 2-3 hours of the Asian session, I'll call it a day until Frankie....not that I trade Frankie, but it's sometimes worth seeing how it acts, and how London reacts!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,887
  • Dec 15, 2010 3:31am Dec 15, 2010 3:31am
Quoting fosking
Following on from my previous chart hitting the 0.618 Fib level, we are back up there after the bounce and looking to play kiss chase with 84.00 (daily R1).
Perfect touch of 84.00. Immediate downside risks come in at 83.76 with a possible move back down to the weekly pivot once again.
RANsquawk are reporting stops are being built above 84.40 which would now seem a strong play for the big boys.
Also 84.00 is the option expiry level so I won't be playing here, both ways are possible.

WSF M5
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  • #21,888
  • Dec 15, 2010 3:42am Dec 15, 2010 3:42am
RANsquawk - Market talk of offers in USD/JPY around 84.15 capping gains in this pair this morning.
  • #21,889
  • Dec 15, 2010 4:13am Dec 15, 2010 4:13am
Looks like the Dollar is really driving this pair at the moment.
With US futures dropping this should push the Dollar higher as they are negatively correlated. Stops still reported above 84.40.

USD/JPY/USDX M15
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  • #21,890
  • Dec 15, 2010 4:23am Dec 15, 2010 4:23am
Quoting fosking
Looks like the Dollar is really driving this pair at the moment.
With US futures dropping this should push the Dollar higher as they are negatively correlated. Stops still reported above 84.40.
Yes, if USDX can break out north, we might have a game on our hands.....there's still that all important 84.30-84.40 barrier though...it's all up to USD.....
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,891
  • Dec 15, 2010 4:30am Dec 15, 2010 4:30am
Here's an updated chart of the above showing the correlation between the Yen and Dollar. It's turning bullish on USD/JPY as the orange line rises (Dollar) and the purple line begins to fall away (Yen).

As you say realjumper, that 80.40 level is key.

USD/JPY correlation M15
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  • #21,892
  • Dec 15, 2010 4:36am Dec 15, 2010 4:36am
Quoting fosking
Here's an updated chart of the above showing the correlation between the Yen and Dollar. It's turning bullish on USD/JPY as the orange line rises (Dollar) and the purple line begins to fall away (Yen).

As you say realjumper, that 80.40 level is key.
Nice chart. It's good to see that correlation.....12-18 months ago the correlation was almost a given. It would be good to see that return again.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,893
  • Dec 15, 2010 4:40am Dec 15, 2010 4:40am
Quoting fosking
Here's an updated chart of the above showing the correlation between the Yen and Dollar. It's turning bullish on USD/JPY as the orange line rises (Dollar) and the purple line begins to fall away (Yen).

As you say realjumper, that 80.40 level is key.

USD/JPY correlation M15
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I have a short pending at 84.20 with s/l at 8445...

Have been playing this for the last couple of weeks and works every time! TP will be around 8300, with 2nd t/p at 8250
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #21,894
  • Dec 15, 2010 4:54am Dec 15, 2010 4:54am
Quoting pawpaw1000
I have a short pending at 84.20 with s/l at 8445...
Daily Pivot R2 and yesterdays high comes in at around 84.35. If the Dollar gets a strong foothold then this area could be within reach. Stops reported at around 84.40 just above yesterdays high so if the big boys are about they will be after them. This morning there were reports of offers around the 84.15 area so it could be quite volatile. Once it gets around the 84.50 area I would favor shorts.


WSF M5
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  • #21,895
  • Dec 15, 2010 5:29am Dec 15, 2010 5:29am
EU mid session update.

Risk averse sentiment dominated the European trading session, which followed a rather downbeat close in the Asian session on the back of a much weaker than expected Tankan survey. However it was reports that Moody’s may cut the Spanish sovereign debt rating which drove the sell-off and in turn led to the peripheral spread widening. Consequently, the peripheral stock indices underperformed, weighed on primarily by banks and insurance stocks. In addition to that, there is a sense of uncertainty among investors as they await the final meeting by the EU policy makers on Thursday/Friday where yet again Germany’s Merkel is expected to put a case forward against the Eurobond idea. Also, markets await the vote by the Irish lawmakers who are yet to agree on the bailout package. Though that is seen as more of a non-event and should see the IMF members put a package forward on Thursday.

In FX, GBP underperformed other majors following weaker jobs data, which saw the ILO unemployment rate rise for the first time in 6-months above market expectation, prompting GBP/USD to drop below 1.5700, while EUR/GBP made a test on 0.8500.

Finally, heading into the North American open, the attention now turns to the release of the Empire Manufacturing report, as well as the latest CPI data which following Tuesday’s PPIs may come in higher than the current consensus estimate. Also, the Fed is to conduct its latest asset repurchase program, targeting USD 6-8bln in Dec 2014-May 2016 maturities.

Source: RANsquawk
  • #21,896
  • Dec 15, 2010 6:14am Dec 15, 2010 6:14am
Quoting fosking
Perfect touch of 84.00. Immediate downside risks come in at 83.76 with a possible move back down to the weekly pivot once again.
We have just had a slight bounce off this level with a further break taking us to a possible target of the weekly pivot at 83.52.

Comes in the way of a break of the ascending trend line.

M5
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  • #21,897
  • Dec 15, 2010 7:39am Dec 15, 2010 7:39am
Pentagon Metro station closed due to suspicious package.
  • #21,898
  • Dec 15, 2010 8:04am Dec 15, 2010 8:04am
Running back up now to test resistance.

We do have a lower high (just), but we need to see a break of 83.64 for a continuation of the downwards momentum.

M5
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  • #21,899
  • Dec 15, 2010 11:30am Dec 15, 2010 11:30am
Getting bored, might be tempted to take a short scalp towards 83.5 around 84.20 if it resists there...

H1:

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  • #21,900
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:33pm Dec 15, 2010 12:33pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Getting bored, might be tempted to take a short scalp towards 83.5 around 84.20 if it resists there...

H1:

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Good R:R. Keep an eye on USDX as we have crawled above 80.00 once again.
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