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How to use the 123 strategy effectively

  • #261
  • Dec 14, 2010 9:44am Dec 14, 2010 9:44am
here they are you may contest them but they where profitable

cheers Luis

lets post some charts people how do you trade the 123 come on...
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  • #262
  • Dec 14, 2010 9:52am Dec 14, 2010 9:52am
Quoting ariku
Here is my EURUSD 123 trade that i just entered and would want some comments. In the pictures below you can see my entry, stoploss and takeprofit. I put the tp according to daily candles and stoploss according to 30min candles. Is this okay? And would it be better to move the stoploss to the place i pointed out? I thought that since i'm really trying to catch a big move the trade should have some breathing room. And once it moves up a bit i will move the stoploss upwards also.

Anyone else taking this trade? Comments? Please?...

Hi I couldnt of taken that trade due to my rules I would be looking for the short as the signal you show on the 30min is a trend continuation trade.

How ever if pushed this is my count and entry..all parts qualify and are valid obviously the none Asian rule wouldn't apply to 30min time frame

TP yellow box sl 1 pip below point 1

Cheers

P
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  • #263
  • Dec 14, 2010 10:00am Dec 14, 2010 10:00am
Iv have been checking most of my trades for the last coupkle months and it seems to be an advantage to start the count 1 hour earlier than my normal 8am UK time start

The hour before this captures Frankfurt open and seems to be worth it

cheers

Paul
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Frankfurt.jpg Size: 89 KB
  • #264
  • Dec 14, 2010 10:03am Dec 14, 2010 10:03am
1 trade on GU +48 and long from 1.57.70 with a TP of 1.5799

2 trades on EU +15 and +30 have a 1 and 2 count in for the long

cheers

P
  • #265
  • Dec 14, 2010 10:04am Dec 14, 2010 10:04am
Quoting Paulus
Iv have been checking most of my trades for the last coupkle months and it seems to be an advantage to start the count 1 hour earlier than my normal 8am UK time start

The hour before this captures Frankfurt open and seems to be worth it

cheers

Paul
Interesting. Do you keep your count within each session or allow a crossover between Frankfurt and London? I ask, because Frankfurt often produces a head fake, so I am interested in how you account for this.

All the best
  • #266
  • Edited 10:46am Dec 14, 2010 10:45am | Edited 10:46am
EDIT: @ Delite...thanks for the info...I will check it out!

OK, my wife and I have compiled the February 2010 results...the quick summary is:

Total pips: 325.8
Hit rate: 21/31
Avg. pips per trade: 10.51
Avg. pips per day: 16.29

I feel those are very good numbers! Especially the pips per trade number...if this stays fairly high, even a hit rate below 50% will work

Quoting stljeffbb
I did my best to follow Paulus' rules which are:

- I start looking for 123 at 7am uk time on...not before
- If we are going up in the Asian session I look for a short and visa versa
- I always take trend reversals not continuation of trends
- If I take a short 1st thing then the rest of my trades go long short long short etc
- I must have more than 1 candle in between 1 and 2 and 2 and 3
- The pull back or rally from 2 to 3 must reach the 61.8% of the 1 to 2 move
- My stop loss now goes 1pip below or above 1
- My TP is always the distance from...
Yes, there were just a couple of occasions where I fudged the rules...if the price was within 0.4 pips of the point 3 fibo level for example, I took the trade...I DID NOT close early, and some trades came very close to profit, only to go down in flames! Also, I DID NOT close a trade at 9pm UK time (2200 Alpari UK demo time) if one was still happening (this is something Paulus has mentioned...if a trade is in profit at US close, Paulus takes it)....as a matter of fact, there were not too many drifters, and I do not remember any of them being in profit just after Alpari 2200 (although I could be wrong here)...

Data is in a ZIP...check it out for yourself! Compare with the Alpari UK demo on MT4 and see if I missed any...I do not think I did...a couple were a little difficult to get, and often what looked like one did not have two candles in between the proper places, or point 3 did not quite reach fibo....

Important! This is backtesting, and it can be much easier to find the patterns in hindsight and also trick oneself into seeing / or not seeing something that is there....

...still, having done some moderate backtesting in the past, I feel good about these results...it is only two months so far (February and October), but the results are promising...I will do one month at a time, and then complete a final post summarizing the results....at the moment, I do not have access to January 2010 data on the Alpari demo, so I will go on to March...

Results and charts attached...

Regards,

Jeff
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip 123 MT Feb 2010 Study.zip   2.7 MB | 422 downloads
  • #267
  • Edited 12:06pm Dec 14, 2010 11:50am | Edited 12:06pm
Quoting ariku
Here is my EURUSD 123 trade that i just entered and would want some comments. In the pictures below you can see my entry, stoploss and takeprofit. I put the tp according to daily candles and stoploss according to 30min candles. Is this okay? And would it be better to move the stoploss to the place i pointed out? I thought that since i'm really trying to catch a big move the trade should have some breathing room. And once it moves up a bit i will move the stoploss upwards also.

Anyone else taking this trade? Comments? Please?

-Richard...
Hi Richard
You don't have to wait for the break of the 2 point to enter (the traditional place), you can also enter as soon as price goes above the doji around 3445 on your chart. Personally I prefer to get direction from a higher time frame and then enter from 1 2 3 on 5 min using comparatively small stops. Something to consider.
  • #268
  • Dec 14, 2010 12:06pm Dec 14, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting Delite
Interesting. Do you keep your count within each session or allow a crossover between Frankfurt and London? I ask, because Frankfurt often produces a head fake, so I am interested in how you account for this.

All the best

Looking at my results its better to get the 1 count only in the Frankfurt hour

not the whole 123

cheers

P
  • #269
  • Dec 14, 2010 12:11pm Dec 14, 2010 12:11pm
Quoting Paulus
1 trade on GU +48 and long from 1.57.70 with a TP of 1.5799

2 trades on EU +15 and +30 have a 1 and 2 count in for the long

cheers

P
+29 on the GU trade listed above
and +22 on the EU long that triggered

Totals

GU +48+29 123 count in for short but not triggered yet
EU +15+30+22 1 and 2 count in for short
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #270
  • Dec 14, 2010 12:17pm Dec 14, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting stljeffbb
EDIT: @ Delite...thanks for the info...I will check it out!

OK, my wife and I have compiled the February 2010 results...the quick summary is:

Total pips: 325.8
Hit rate: 21/31
Avg. pips per trade: 10.51
Avg. pips per day: 16.29

I feel those are very good numbers! Especially the pips per trade number...if this stays fairly high, even a hit rate below 50% will work


Regards,

Jeff
Jeff thanks for doing the back ground work ..it takes time to do properly and you have done a good job..your right in hindsight the 123 count can easily fool you ..I often will go back over my daily trades if I have time whined it back to start time and then just keep hitting the F12 key which will adavance the day on 1 bar at a time alot better than looking at the whole chart and picking out past trades

thank your wife for me

cheers

Paulus
  • #271
  • Edited 4:17pm Dec 14, 2010 3:21pm | Edited 4:17pm
Quoting Paulus
Jeff thanks for doing the back ground work ..it takes time to do properly and you have done a good job..your right in hindsight the 123 count can easily fool you ..I often will go back over my daily trades if I have time whined it back to start time and then just keep hitting the F12 key which will adavance the day on 1 bar at a time alot better than looking at the whole chart and picking out past trades

thank your wife for me

cheers

Paulus
Thanks Paulus...and thanks for sharing your methodology with us!

I'm actually not trading this live yet, however, I'm planning a "side" account come the 1st of next year, and if all appearances are as they seem (and they sure do look good!), then I'll be joining you and everyone else trading this way (along with my scalping adventures)! I lament a little bit that I live UTC -6, and that can make it rather difficult for me to catch all of the moves...I suppose 5am my time is 11am your time...still often enough time to get in on the action....

My wife has been very helpful in compiling the data...however, she is threatening to come here and harass me, so if anyone starts flirting with me, it is most likely her.

Regards,

Jeff
  • #272
  • Dec 14, 2010 9:43pm Dec 14, 2010 9:43pm
Hi Paulus,

can you please advise how you enter the trade ? it is directly pending order after see 2 ?


Thanks,

Quoting Paulus
Ive had 2 nice trades this morning on EU and GU +34 and +31

I now have 1 in place for the reversal
  • #273
  • Dec 14, 2010 11:58pm Dec 14, 2010 11:58pm
Quoting Paulus
+29 on the GU trade listed above
and +22 on the EU long that triggered

Totals

GU +48+29 123 count in for short but not triggered yet
EU +15+30+22 1 and 2 count in for short

Paulus, the last 2 trades on EU and GU stoped on news spike ?
  • #274
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:14am Dec 15, 2010 12:14am
I see a lot of old boys hanging around, just goes to show the simplicity of your quest to trade simple is outstanding. Thanks to Saidar for starting this thread. Confirms what I already know just needed to hear it. Once more thank you Paulus for sharing your rules and knowledge, extraordinary. THANKS, God bless.
  • #275
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:30am Dec 15, 2010 12:30am
Thank you everyone for your replies! As you probably know the trade wen't totally wrong and once again it seems that Paulus is on the right track if looking at the chart now. Keepi it coming Paulus!


Quoting Vantage
Hi Richard
You don't have to wait for the break of the 2 point to enter (the traditional place), you can also enter as soon as price goes above the doji around 3445 on your chart. Personally I prefer to get direction from a higher time frame and then enter from 1 2 3 on 5 min using comparatively small stops. Something to consider.
Isn't it too hasty to enter on the break of the doji? I will have to look into that, atleast that would make the stoploss quite a bit smaller. Thank you Vantage!

http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/7272/entrymz.png
  • #276
  • Dec 15, 2010 1:01am Dec 15, 2010 1:01am
good morning status of charts missed one good sell entry but i dont trade at those hours.. so loking in for 1st setup of the day


cheers.
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  • #277
  • Dec 15, 2010 1:27am Dec 15, 2010 1:27am
Quoting pipfirst
Hi Paulus,

can you please advise how you enter the trade ? it is directly pending order after see 2 ?


Thanks,
I need 3 in place 1st which means a 61.8% correction at least 2 bars between 2 and the proposed 3 and 3 hi lower than 1 hi in the case of a short

Once thats in place then i setup my pending order

Cheers

P
  • #278
  • Dec 15, 2010 2:08am Dec 15, 2010 2:08am
setup appeared so long for now .... let's see...
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  • #279
  • Dec 15, 2010 3:02am Dec 15, 2010 3:02am
nice news to euro so expect to fill the trade now +10
  • #280
  • Dec 15, 2010 3:57am Dec 15, 2010 3:57am
Morning all, from London Open according to Paulus' rules, we're still waiting for a valid long setup to form on GU and the EU long (posted below) in still in play...
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