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EURUSD

  • #345,821
  • Dec 14, 2010 3:57pm Dec 14, 2010 3:57pm
Quoting Pipstrumpf
Guys,

Anybody playing Casino in December in a clearly ranging market (mid term) with tight stops in place is a fool! Just take your savings a trow it out onto the street and I bet you that it will be gone in no time.

Furthermore for all the Cristal ball magician here on FF predicting the EUR or the US$ goes to zero value think again, really?
Everybody in this world needs a certain exchange medium to buy food, clothes and so on and that is why the mayor currency's are always a fairly safe medium. Currency's are an exchange medium, shares and bonds...
you dont need currencies. they just minimize the transaction costs.
  • #345,822
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:04pm Dec 14, 2010 4:04pm
Quoting Redeemed1
Money is going out of bonds....where is it going?
stocks perhaps?
  • #345,823
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:05pm Dec 14, 2010 4:05pm
the same chart as earlier. below 3368 (white line).. may cause the domino affect. it targets 3296.. well below the bigger hs (dotted red line)..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #345,824
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:07pm Dec 14, 2010 4:07pm
Quoting Pipstrumpf
Ha,Ha, you are such a funny man, woman, teenager who knows, that's life online where anybody post anything.

Good on you and peace
if you only knew.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #345,825
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:09pm Dec 14, 2010 4:09pm
Quoting Forexpro30
Today when EUR/USD touched 1.34988 did the charts show we would now be near 1.3375 ?

Does anyone know why the price is here and where it will be by this time tomorrow ?
It will be at exactly 1.32859 ... seriously dude, how could anyone tell you where it will be this time tomorrow with any accuracy? (especially this thread...!) If any of us knew, we'd be staking 50%+ of our account with every trade, not 4%-2% ...

'Why are we here?' Because we're in a supply zone (see prev. posted chart), and we're (5pm) closing at the day's low after - and underlingingly IMO - a spectacular rejection of 1.35/1.349, the telling 55 day MA, weekly R2 (around 1.352), and a 61.8% fibo. I'd mentioned before that if/when the 1.337 basement of the supply channel fails, 1.33/1.3326 should be on the horizon.

The day's doji and closing at the day's low is telling. We lost 50 of the day's ~130 pip range post-FOMC, so euro interest - at the expense of the USD - doesn't appear to be there. From a VSA perspective, the run into 1.35 appears to have been sold into after a lighter volume melt-up yesterday, and a revisit to 1.312/315 by week's end would not surprise me. The post-FOMC period saw huge volumes selling from 1.343 downwards. Mind you, volume and liquidity is not the best, so a daily doji if there were trending interest could become less meaningful. Will be looking for how PA behaves if we get back to 1.344 during any frankie fakeout, but I think I'm looking at shorting this thing on a confirmed move down.
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  • #345,826
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:09pm Dec 14, 2010 4:09pm
Quoting Forexpro30
Today when EUR/USD touched 1.34988 did the charts show we would now be near 1.3375 ?

Does anyone know why the price is here and where it will be by this time tomorrow ?

The FED said nothing very new and the Dow closed up 47.98

Gold is just under $1395.00 and the US Dollar Index is up.

The US 10 Year Bonds are down substantially. Does someone know why ? How did it effect the US Dollar Index ?

Thoughts and comments appreciated.
My 2 cent: they promised no change on their UST buying to sustain their QE2; UST are not simply down because Fed; it's several days they're on downtrend because a) inflation fears; b) economic growth expectations c) larger UST buying should keep yields down but also mean larger amount of Treasuries --> foreign investors coud look for higher yields to remain invested or buying further notes. I'll leave to other traders USDX implications...
  • #345,827
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:14pm Dec 14, 2010 4:14pm
Quoting darimik
you dont need currencies. they just minimize the transaction costs.
Once the paper money system is obsolete we shall see what will be next.
Till then we do not worry too much about it, life will continue no matter what.
  • #345,828
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:17pm Dec 14, 2010 4:17pm
2010-12-14 _ 22h55 CET _ EUR-USD : PRIOR TO CLOSING (Tuesday)


EUR-USD : 1.33734 (update)


0.0135 Écart
1.3165 Elliott Reversal
1.3518 Elliott Projection (zigzag 1.3490/ 93 or impulse wave up 1.3518)

pivots + spezi

1.3600 1.3560
1.3549 1.3512
1.3498 1.3460
1.3465 1.3437

1.3414 1.3431 <= central pp

1.3329 1.3424
1.3363 1.3401
1.3279 1.3349
1.3194 1.3301

Erstellte Punkte
E-point K-point
1.3286 1.3476


Highest been given : BID
1.34981
Lowest been taken : ASK
1.33627


Kann trotzdem locker noch höher gehen ... entgültige Planung und Entscheidung kommt dann ...



;-)
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #345,829
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:24pm Dec 14, 2010 4:24pm
Quoting paul1
Your playing the game wrong buddy .No one knows for sure were its going
Set yourself a criteria for entry then focus on limting your losses and attempting to let your green pips at least run to double your red ones.
Once you master this you will no longer worry about were it might go.
Open daily chart draw line along the extreme tops & bottoms thats main trend ,do same on hourly thats intraday trend for entries pick 5/15min to apply your entry criteria ,practice cutting losers and holding winners .
I am not an attorney however all good barristers should never ask a question unless they already know the answer.

I asked those questions to see how many might try to answer the question. I cannot tell you where EUR/USD will be at 5:00 PM EST on Wednesday however if you know the answers to some of the questions that I posed your chances of making money in this forex business improve Ten Fold.

The charts and PA only serve a limited purpose and the market has priced in the pyschology and fundamentals at this point in time.

However there are NEW fundamental facts coming out every hour that the forex markets are open.

I will list what I call 10 fundamental facts.

(1) The Dow
(2) Gold
(3) Oil
(4) US Bonds
(5) Option Expiry at 10:00 AM
(6) New Data usually out 8:30 AM and 10:00 AM in the USA
(7) USD/JPY (If you trade EUR/USD)
(8) Resistance & Support (Various Time Frames)
(9) Present Market Perception
(10) Planned Intervention by the Powers that be.

If you follow these you will know which way the charts will go. It is DEFINITELY not the other way around.

I understand 85% to 90% of ALL FX trader's lose. I would venture to say 75% are mainly technical traders.

If you follow the money flow you have an edge.

The reason EUR/USD went down at 8:00 AM sharp was profit taking before Retail Sales at 8:30 AM and PPI.

The reason EUR/USD went down after 2:15 PM is due to the Sell Off of the US Bonds especially the 10 Year US Bonds.

Those funds went into the US Dollar and forced down EUR/USD.

On Wednesday if the Dow ends down 100 or more EUR/USD most likely will test 1.3300 again. What is USD/JPY doing since if it gets stronger than EUR/JPY will get weaker and bring EUR/USD down with it.

Have a good evening. All comments welcome.
  • #345,830
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:30pm Dec 14, 2010 4:30pm
Quoting paul1
This is worth reading if you want some insight into what goes on behind the scenes
Attachment
many Thanks
  • #345,831
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:32pm Dec 14, 2010 4:32pm
Quoting Orbital
How is your left nut?

Hey fruitcake stop paying attention to his nuts and look at his other posting he had a solid short...
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #345,832
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:34pm Dec 14, 2010 4:34pm
Hey bro good trading today. Good job on your short. I profited all my longs I am out of the market atm and going to wait to see what shows up in the asain session, hopefully 3300 will be back for another buy. How long are you holding onto your short?
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #345,833
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:36pm Dec 14, 2010 4:36pm
Quoting ak4x
Crazy 20 to 30+ pip spreads on EJ with IBFX over the last few minutes...

Missed my stop but still... that was weird.

Jerks....

Attachment
maybe they know something were not supposed to know.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #345,834
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:42pm Dec 14, 2010 4:42pm
Quoting Scrat
what happened?
Inter vs AC???
  • #345,835
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:49pm Dec 14, 2010 4:49pm
Quoting Forexpro30
I am not an attorney however all good barristers should never ask a question unless they already know the answer.

I asked those questions to see how many might try to answer the question. I cannot tell you where EUR/USD will be at 5:00 PM EST on Wednesday however if you know the answers to some of the questions that I posed your chances of making money in this forex business improve Ten Fold.

The charts and PA only serve a limited purpose and the market has priced in the pyschology and fundamentals at this point in time.

However there are NEW...
Interesting post & different healthy point of view in the thread. I agree in concept however:

1. You rational and logical explanation on what happened today assume perfect information which is usually not true. Not all actors behave on reports in such a direct and proportional way. It seems obvious after the fact but like in everything else in trading before the fact it has the same limitations: limited information, small capital and a degree of subjectivity analyzing some of the news impact and more importantly translating that to trading signals (entries and exits).

2. Most of your items in your list hide the other side of the equation the EZ.
The Dow is worthless during most of the active session especially London. I will include without a doubt the DAX 1st.

3. Oil impact is important but not always relevant. The clear cases are when inflation and interest rates are in play. While for example during EZ debt crisis oil is a lot less relevant.

4. Gold and US Bonds I agree but again I will add EZ bonds and spreads as it has been clearly the case during this year.

5. Options. Mixed feelings and experience so I will agree to some extend

6. Reports yes obviously.

7. And the last 4 are as subjective as any other TA tool. They are worth only in the eye of the beholder.

To conclude, "If you follow these you will know which way the charts will go" can be as complicated as trading any TA tool. It is a valid approach but not the only and unique way to trade and although it requires time, experience and knowledge it doesn't solve the main problem with trading entries and exits.

In any case good post.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #345,836
  • Dec 14, 2010 5:11pm Dec 14, 2010 5:11pm
15-12-2010 EURUSD
Attached Images
  • #345,837
  • Dec 14, 2010 5:13pm Dec 14, 2010 5:13pm
Quoting england33
I'm long bias right now for eur-usd on medium term. short term just play my cards as best I can. Gold does look very heavy at 1400 but I think it will firm back up soon. just got out of short on eur-usd. things could get choppy so I might just sit out a bit.

Yep, I'll wait until 1390 or 1406 breaks and if it does so slowly I'll go accordingly

Upside/Downside barrels on hourly (longside/shortside) barrels

tried to find some correlation and it seems like USD is a bit more correlated than it used to....

lets see how it plays out
  • #345,838
  • Dec 14, 2010 5:15pm Dec 14, 2010 5:15pm
Quoting sisse
Interesting post & different healthy point of view in the thread. I agree in concept however:

1. You rational and logical explanation on what happened today assume perfect information which is usually not true. Not all actors behave on reports in such a direct and proportional way. It seems obvious after the fact but like in everything else in trading before the fact it has the same limitations: limited information, small capital and a degree of subjectivity analyzing some of the news impact and more importantly translating that to trading signals...

What hours do you trade and in what time zone ? If you are in my time frame I can post live for you as I keep a running journal so you can see the correlation live and in real time.

Let me tell you why if the Dow goes down 150 or more and as of now I have no idea which way it will go. However overnight the Dow futures lead the way. There is a very close correlation between the Dow and EUR/USD.

Here is why. The money flows out of the Dow and it usually goes into the US Bonds for safety. Gold usually but not always gets sold but other trading currencies do also exit the Dow such as EUR/USD and that is why the US Dollar Index goes up except for some strange days like Friday when other factors are at play. There is also of course the race to the bottom with the Euro and US Dollar. Then there are Risk items like Iran and North Korea. Will Ireland vote for the Austerity Plan of the IMF and ECB ?

They all factor in but the most important factor in currency trading is the money flow. I listen live to the Forex news through a very good news service. I know in advance when certain major news comes out. This morning at 5:00 AM there was a GOOD ZEW and it helped EUR/USD play with 1.3500 but once North America opened things changed.

Please let me know if you care to follow along as I trade the money flow.
  • #345,839
  • Dec 14, 2010 5:18pm Dec 14, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting goods
Hey bro good trading today. Good job on your short. I profited all my longs I am out of the market atm and going to wait to see what shows up in the asain session, hopefully 3300 will be back for another buy. How long are you holding onto your short?
good job! I'm hold for a week or 300 pips, whichever comes first.......
  • #345,840
  • Dec 14, 2010 5:19pm Dec 14, 2010 5:19pm
Quoting Larseg
Yep, I'll wait until 1390 or 1406 breaks and if it does so slowly I'll go accordingly

Upside/Downside barrels on hourly (longside/shortside) barrels

tried to find some correlation and it seems like USD is a bit more correlated than it used to....

lets see how it plays out
same here not looking to rush.. wait for confirmation and go. abide by stop loss / targets... not looking to stay in trades long. at the same time watch gold.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
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