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Sonic R. System

  • #15,801
  • Dec 13, 2010 3:26pm Dec 13, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting traderathome
Are you saying that the EU M15 SonicR setup/trade was NOT A+ because on the H4 chart the long setup formed below the trend line?

If this is what you are saying, then I disagree with your conclusion, on the basis that (1) it never formed on the H4 because there were no HLs/HHs forming on the H4 preceding the breakout, and (2) because we never "qualify" an M15 SonicR setup on the H4 in that manner.

The H4 should indeed be looked to for any confirming sign, or reason to believe a SonicR setup on the M15 will come to fruition. But that does not...
Sometimes opinions about a setup differs, but that doesn't make anyone right or wrong, but I still believe it's was not a perfect one ...

There are the reasons :

First : The pinbar you've mentioned is not valid regarding to what james teaches in his forum and private forum because of several reasons :
A) The pinbar on H4 should determind on a GMT time server and it's not a very good pinbar on the GMT timezone servers. There is no space and it's in the middle of the range.
B) I formed at the end of friday, that's not valid because friday noon is not very technical, because many intraweek traders close their position at the end of the week and that's why moves is based on exits, not entries. And that's make it less reliable.
C) Even if you consider it a good pinbar, that is not, price broke it after several candles, it's better to see a hard and fast break.

Anyway, it's just about the pinbar.

Second : I was showing the trend on H4 because it was more visible. It was on daily too. and price stalled just below it. As you can see on M15 chart, entry was just below the trendline.

Third : there was a strong resistance just above the entry on daily TF that I marked with blue rectangle.

Fourth : I don't question the support you've mentioned ... I didn't say it was not a good setup at all. I just thought it was not the perfect one ...


Again, I'm not going to discuss how ever it's wrong or right, I was just telling my opinion. But just one more thing. IF it didn't move upwards that hard and touches the trend (that was very valid lately, price respected it very much) and reverses, do you still believe it's a perfect setup ? If "yes", then our opinions are different on this particular one, if "no" then we are talking about the same thing.

Yes we have some things that supported this trade, but I didn't like the trendline ... I adhere to this believe that judgements about setups must be independent from the result of those setups.

I hope I was clear and there is no missunderstood for dear TAH and other readers, I was just telling my opinion ...

Best Regards,
Basber
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #15,802
  • Edited 4:45pm Dec 13, 2010 4:16pm | Edited 4:45pm
Quoting Basber
Sometimes opinions about a setup differs, but that doesn't make anyone right or wrong, but I still believe it's was not a perfect one ...

There are the reasons :

First : The pinbar you've mentioned is not valid regarding to what james teaches in his forum and private forum because of several reasons :
A) The pinbar on H4 should determind on a GMT time server and it's not a very good pinbar on the GMT timezone servers. There is no space and it's in the middle of the range.
B) I formed at the end of friday, that's not valid because friday noon...
First: About the pinbar, yes, due to differences between GMT based and non-GMT based servers, it will appear or not on different platforms. But, where ever it appears and when ever it appears, it is telling a story....that price is too high/low in the opinion of those trading. That is less valid on some days than others? Trading might be on less volume some days than others, but the sentiment is valid nonetheless. And regardless of what might happen immediately afterwards, that sentiment might rule trading for a span of time afterwards, while "things get prepared" for ACTING ON THAT SENTIMENT. Being too choosey about the pinbar, too picky about "when" in time, or "where" in range only serves to dilute the significance of the sentiment that was there as a clue. Anyway, that is just about the pinbar.

Second: I see the trend on the M15, H4 and Daily, and I also see on the M15 chart, that NVO was SCREAMING OUT LOUD at the lows that "something was up!" just before the move to break the TL.

Third: As for the Daily resistance area, I had that line on the charts I posted over the weekend. But all day Friday, PA waffled about it, so it was not "hard" resistance.

Fourth: Yeah, the support was there, also from Friday....the bottom area of Friday's PA range.

Thank you, Basber, for clarifying that when you said the long setup was below the TL, that you were referring to the M15 chart setup and not the H4 chart (on which there was no setup).

You've made a great point, Basber, about not evaluating after the results are in! But that is not being done:

1) PA was basing on a whole number support area.
2) PA had already made a shambles of the nearby Daily resistance.
3) PA launched off "flat" to make a distinct, well formed/spaced WAVE.
4) The Dragon was already angled up as the WAVE was being created.
5) The pre-requisite trading activity was there. Not only that, but on last Thursday and Friday the highest volume concentrations were at the lows!
6) The setup activity occurred per "approved hours".
7) PA had been ranging for over a day, approximately between two Daily resistance areas....a breakout would eventually come.

I still feel it is a perfect example of a SonicR setup. Actually, all the MORE SO, since it's key identifiers did their job in spite of the preceding day being a Friday, the current day having started with a gap down, and the all-in-all crazy trading environment that is December! Yes, the SonicR key identifiers did very well indeed....all the better to point out how good an example this one is.


Edit: As an afterthought, something that might help all...... If it seems that I am adamant about the clarity of this setup, I am. And I think the reason is, beyond all the obvious already stated, is that we Sonikers trade on the M15 chart, not the H4, not the Daily. And when Sonic says, "Trade what you see.", I believe he is referring to "real time" on the M15, because as do big oak trees grow from little acorns, so do new PA movements start at the lower TFs, in spite of what the "adult TFs" are suggesting! Why? Because people, not chart technicals nor economic factors, determine what will next happen to price. And more times than I care to remember, I let the "adult TF charts" tell me where price is going. And guess what, they lied! When it comes right down to it, what is happening "real time" on the M15, out weighs all the rest. There is untold wisdom in Sonic's phrases, "Trade what you see.", and "Let the market decide." These are meant to apply to the "here and now" on the M15, because here is where moves will start that will break support, or break resistance, or break a TL, or where PA will do what no one suspected from all their technical analysis because people that move the market have decided it will be so!

"Trade what you see." "Let the market decide." - Sonicdeejay

Thank you, Sonic, for such wisdom shared.

Regards,
-TAH
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  • #15,803
  • Dec 13, 2010 4:40pm Dec 13, 2010 4:40pm
Quoting traderathome
Thank you, Basber, for clarifying that when you said the long setup was below the TL, that you were referring to the M15 chart setup and not the H4 chart (on which there was no setup).

You've made a great point, Basber, about not evaluating after the results are in! But that is not being done:

1) PA was basing on a whole number support area.
2) PA had already made a shambles of the nearby Daily resistance.
3) PA launched off "flat" to make a distinct, well formed/spaced WAVE.
4) The Dragon was already angled up as the WAVE was being...
Then it's a perfect setups that I missed intentionally

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #15,804
  • Dec 13, 2010 4:49pm Dec 13, 2010 4:49pm
Quoting Basber
Then it's a perfect setups that I missed intentionally

Regards,
Basber
Well, you are far better than I, Basber. You might intentionally miss a perfect setup, while I just plain miss them!

Regards,
-TAH
  • #15,805
  • Edited 6:08pm Dec 13, 2010 5:39pm | Edited 6:08pm
It has only been two weeks since the release of the new "SonicR" indicators, and already some new features are coded for the next release. Just for your information, here are some highlights:

Chart Panel -
Added a new section to draw Whole Numbers. This sounds like the Levels section, but it is different. It only places whole numbers on the chart, which you can color differently if they are below or above the Bid (example: blue/red). As the Bid moves across a line, the line color will appropriately change. You can activate margin labels for these lines. You can input however many such lines you want to show below and above the Bid.

And speaking of the Levels section, it will now handle XAUUSD (gold vs dollar) and XAGUSD (silver vs dollar). Well, it already handles silver. But the level lines for gold were all condensed because gold moves 10x-20x more in a day than typical forex pairs and silver. So, a 100 pip range from whole number to whole number has to become, for gold, a 1000 pip range between two "whole numbers". The code now accomplishes this for XAUUSD, by placing the same levels between each "thousandth" level, as we normally have between each "hundredth" level.

Clock Panel-
A simple change in the code to show the Sydney open/close time to be 8/5 local, instead of the current 7/4 local, because all internet info on Sydney indicates their forex market officially opens at 8am (their local time) and not at 7am which is in the current code.

FFCal Headlines-
I worked six months on this one, to get the automatic prioritization routine to handle four headlines with three impact levels, and still perform flawlessly. The next release will allow news for any currency to be shown on the chart for any currency pair. For example, if you are trading AU, you naturally get the headlines for AUD and USD news. But, you might also want to see the headlines regarding the Chinese Yaun (CNY), since AUD is sensitive to what affects CNY. Or, if you are trading the USDJPY, you might also want the headlines for EUR.

Regards,
-TAH
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  • #15,806
  • Dec 13, 2010 8:13pm Dec 13, 2010 8:13pm
Quoting traderathome
First: About the pinbar, yes, due to differences between GMT based and non-GMT based servers, it will appear or not on different platforms. But, where ever it appears and when ever it appears, it is telling a story....that price is too high/low in the opinion of those trading. That is less valid on some days than others? Trading might be on less volume some days than others, but the sentiment is valid nonetheless. And regardless of what might happen immediately afterwards, that sentiment might rule trading for a span of time afterwards, while "things...
My opinion regarding this discussion.
1. The single bar ( candle) analysis on H4 is just the interpretation of the wave analysis in lower timeframes. It’s more reliable shift to 30M or 15M TF to look at the whole set of waves action rather than make conclusion just base on one bar (which mean part of the wave in lower TF). As your said different time slot will make the bar represent differently.
2. It’s not A+ setup in Basber’s trading system, because the set up was under the 4H down trendline. I agree the action he was taken, because trading is about following the solid rule of the system , in order to achieve the systemic edge (winning possibilities).
3. It was perfect Sonic R long setup on 15M TF, however, there was lack of technical evidences to support the trade in 1H and 4H TF, so it was relative high risk entry, luckily it turned out as high return.
4. In trading psychology, the afterward price movement can always influence our memory of the previous analysis unconsciously (or influence the after event analysis).
5. We have many components is Sonic R, the WAVES are the most important, especially combined multi TF wave analysis.
6. If anyone trade on breakout system, this could be perfect setup. Did your guys ever think that, to combine Sonic R with breakout system, to make it more adoptive to market volatility?
seeing through
  • #15,807
  • Dec 13, 2010 8:33pm Dec 13, 2010 8:33pm
Quoting pipphunter
My opinion regarding this discussion.
1. The single bar ( candle) analysis on H4 is just the interpretation of the wave analysis in lower timeframes. It’s more reliable shift to 30M or 15M TF to look at the whole set of waves action rather than make conclusion just base on one bar (which mean part of the wave in lower TF). As your said different time slot will make the bar represent differently.
[font=Calibri]2....
Did anyone trade the perfect setup and grab 100+ pips?
If no, then how is it a perfect setup, it must not have looked perfect (at the time it formed) thats why no one traded.
  • #15,808
  • Dec 13, 2010 8:34pm Dec 13, 2010 8:34pm
EU, easy clear and at the same time a little tricky ... LOL ..... I got that wrong too,, I saw that as a short trade, thinking it would be forming a double bottom,,, darn it what I've gained on cable, lost on EU....

lets look forward ..
  • #15,809
  • Dec 14, 2010 1:24am Dec 14, 2010 1:24am
Quoting amlavor
EU, easy clear and at the same time a little tricky ... LOL ..... I got that wrong too,, I saw that as a short trade, thinking it would be forming a double bottom,,, darn it what I've gained on cable, lost on EU....

lets look forward ..
I too, though it would go down. I stopped watching it about the time of my post on that score, and focused on EJ, GU, and AU. So, my loss also.
  • #15,810
  • Dec 14, 2010 1:47am Dec 14, 2010 1:47am
Hello everybody Im in eur/jpy long setup
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  • #15,811
  • Dec 14, 2010 1:53am Dec 14, 2010 1:53am
Quoting traderathome
I too, though it would go down. I stopped watching it about the time of my post on that score, and focused on EJ, GU, and AU. So, my loss also.

Me too....
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #15,812
  • Dec 14, 2010 2:15am Dec 14, 2010 2:15am
If anybody wants to take a look at GBP/JPY, its going side ways for a while, and hanging inside the dragon......
  • #15,813
  • Dec 14, 2010 2:49am Dec 14, 2010 2:49am
Quoting pipphunter
6. If anyone trade on breakout system, this could be perfect setup. Did your guys ever think that, to combine Sonic R with breakout system, to make it more adoptive to market volatility?
Many of us doing this. But I rather to see this situation :

In breakout patterns we have two bands (it could be a resistance or a trendline or etc.), the upper band and the lower band. I myself when see such a patterns (like tiangles, rectangles and etc.) like to see a SonicR setup in this situation :
First price should break one of the bands. For example consider that we are looking for a long setup, like it was in previous EU example. after price formed a "low", then the "high" relative to that low (first leg of the swing) is better to be higher than the upper band (it didn't not get there in previous example), then on the second leg of wave analysis (forming the HL), "higher low" is better to be on the upper band (retesting it) and the returns upward. Now we have a very good SonicR setup with confluence of a breakout pattern ... They are very powerful setups that usually leads to big moves ...

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #15,814
  • Dec 14, 2010 2:52am Dec 14, 2010 2:52am
Quoting Doncex
Hello everybody Im in eur/jpy long setup
I like the setup ... It looks nice ! (I didn't take it, I don't watch this pair anymore - Not because it's not good, I'm concentrating on just 3 pairs with another system that I'm working on with EG (it's a little odd pair to trade ... it has some bizzare moves sometimes) , so I should have less pairs to not get confused)

Let's see what market will do afterwards ...

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #15,815
  • Dec 14, 2010 3:12am Dec 14, 2010 3:12am
Im short on GJ and GU,,, if anybody out there too, watch out,,, CPI y/y coming up...


I notice,,, here in FF the times for the releases is one hour + than FPA?? didnt FF correct to winter time?
  • #15,816
  • Dec 14, 2010 3:30am Dec 14, 2010 3:30am
Quoting Doncex
Hello everybody Im in eur/jpy long setup
eur/jpy hit stoploss-25 pips

marktet say yes bears attack
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  • #15,817
  • Dec 14, 2010 3:36am Dec 14, 2010 3:36am
Quoting amlavor
Im short on GJ and GU,,, if anybody out there too, watch out,,, CPI y/y coming up...


I notice,,, here in FF the times for the releases is one hour + than FPA?? didnt FF correct to winter time?
amlavor, click on your name to enter your private settings page. Off to the left is a "time and dates settings" selection. Click on that. It will bring up the page for you to adjust your time due to the DST changeover.

Forex Factory has it set so every user (all different kinds of time zones involved) must reset their Forex Factory site time twice yearly if required by DST changeover. If your time changes twice yearly, than twice yearly you must reset the time on your Forex Factory site.

Regards,
-TAH
  • #15,818
  • Dec 14, 2010 3:40am Dec 14, 2010 3:40am
Quoting traderathome
amlavor, click on your name to enter your private settings page. Off to the left is a "time and dates settings" selection. Click on that. It will bring up the page for you to adjust your time due to the DST changeover.

Forex Factory has it set so every user (all different kinds of time zones involved) must reset their Forex Factory site time twice yearly if required by DST changeover. If your time changes twice yearly, than twice yearly you must reset the time on your Forex Factory site.

Regards,
-TAH
hey thanks TAH,,, now it's right...
  • #15,819
  • Dec 14, 2010 3:50am Dec 14, 2010 3:50am
Quoting Basber
Many of us doing this. But I rather to see this situation :

In breakout patterns we have two bands (it could be a resistance or a trendline or etc.), the upper band and the lower band. I myself when see such a patterns (like tiangles, rectangles and etc.) like to see a SonicR setup in this situation :
First price should break one of the bands. For example consider that we are looking for a long setup, like it was in previous EU example. after price formed a "low", then the "high" relative to that low (first leg of the swing) is better to be...
Basber, Piphunter.....

I am not trying to beat a dead horse here, nor be critical. I am just trying to understand differing viewpoints.

Basber, if you look for two bands, and if for a SonicR long the setup should be at/above the upper band, then why did not this setup qualify? There are clearly an upper M15 TL and lower M15 Support bands. Since we trade the M15, why do not these two M15 bands qualify the setup, which is above the upper band?

Regards,
-TAH
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  • #15,820
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:27am Dec 14, 2010 4:27am
EJ:

Short setup.
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