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EURUSD

  • #343,601
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:35am Dec 10, 2010 5:35am

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  • #343,602
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:36am Dec 10, 2010 5:36am
Quoting ahmedfouad77
So this was a false breakout...! Isn't it?
that was volatility that hit the market with the Chinese rate hike announcement
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #343,603
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:36am Dec 10, 2010 5:36am
Quoting Muhammad88
To Me This Shows A Clear Signal where we Are going No Need To mess Up things WE ARE HEADING DOWNWARDS AND THIS CHART CONFIRMS IT NO MORE CONFUSION To ME ATLEAST.
its down now .

but you always have to conciser the big picture .

there are buyers and sellers that make up the forex market .

1. banks

2. commercial companies

3. central banks

4. investment management firms

5. hedge funds

6. and finally retail forex brokers


market makers (in any market ) draw trends and patterns to gain strength in their favorable direction of the price . hence the fight between those big guys in drawing those patterns and trends .

I can take a wild guess that the bulls were selling yesterday and the bears bought the EU just to ruin the bulls plans , and they succeeded .

that's how the fight can get complicated .



so its crucial to too look at it from a broaden view . to see what any one of them is trying to achieve .
I SEE YOU !!
  • #343,604
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:38am Dec 10, 2010 5:38am
4 hr chart: Bullish HD on both daily and h4
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  • #343,605
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:40am Dec 10, 2010 5:40am
Quoting ahmedfouad77
So this was a false breakout...! Isn't it?
Depends in your perspective. Well it was not in your chart but in H4 it was but more importantly it was also a 1st failed test on the daily buyers on NFP (fundamental). How long it will last? not for long (daily perspective) if price doesn't break 1.342x.

In any case Futures rollover completed with the usual choppy session.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #343,606
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:42am Dec 10, 2010 5:42am
I did a little research on the monthly chart -70% of the times if a month closed lower from the opening - the next month will make a new low from the low of the previos month.

we will go to 1.2970 in Probability of 70% !
  • #343,607
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:46am Dec 10, 2010 5:46am
Quoting z3r0
This is why I disregard that flag:
1st - we need confirmation
very true .

flag needs confirmation , and we have nothing so far .

that's why I say I cant buy now.
I SEE YOU !!
  • #343,608
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:50am Dec 10, 2010 5:50am
EU is under performing today maybe the news will bring some more volatility. EJ is on the verge of breaking through support at 111.60. wait to trade with the news
  • #343,609
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:51am Dec 10, 2010 5:51am
Quoting africa6
I did a little research on the monthly chart -70% of the times if a month closed lower from the opening - the next month will make a new low from the low of the previos month.

we will go to 1.2970 in Probability of 70% !
Start of test: 01/05/1989
end of test: 01/12/2010

total down month: 58
total new low: 44
total no new low: 14

sucsses %: 0.75%
  • #343,610
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:52am Dec 10, 2010 5:52am
i am just hedging now.
i have opened positions in both directions...
  • #343,611
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:53am Dec 10, 2010 5:53am
Quoting africa6
Start of test: 01/05/1989
end of test: 01/12/2010

total down month: 58
total new low: 44
total no new low: 15

sucsses %: 0.75%
I would be more comfortable if we hit 1.36 first then head down on the monthly chart.

We still have about 2 weeks to go till the monthly bar close.
  • #343,612
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:54am Dec 10, 2010 5:54am
Quoting africa6
I did a little research on the monthly chart -70% of the times if a month closed lower from the opening - the next month will make a new low from the low of the previos month.

we will go to 1.2970 in Probability of 70% !
That's actually true! Here's the book for the interested
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File Type: pdf Forex Report - Predicting Price Movement.pdf   642 KB | 406 downloads
  • #343,613
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:54am Dec 10, 2010 5:54am
Quoting africa6
I did a little research on the monthly chart -70% of the times if a month closed lower from the opening - the next month will make a new low from the low of the previos month.


thats also a good point , just doesn't execlude a run within the 1300 pip candle before going down again as just happened this month so far !

we had 480 pips up run higher than the low and close of previous month and didn't make new low yet !

how many times did you see this ? .

I can add to your % that you have 90% chance of making lower price than previous month in this month just based on one candle

but so far we didn't
.
.
.

yet

its fun to watch the big picture although most people run away with 20-50 pips lol
I SEE YOU !!
  • #343,614
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:56am Dec 10, 2010 5:56am
Ladies and Gentlemen,

good afternoon.
  • #343,615
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:57am Dec 10, 2010 5:57am
Quoting dbfusion
thats also a good point , just doesn't execlude a run within the 1300 pip candle before going down again as just happened this month so far !

we had 480 pips up run higher than the low and close of previous month and didn't make new low yet !

how many times did you see this ? .

I can add to your % that you have 90% chance of making lower price than previous month in this month just based on one candle

but so far we didn't
.
.
.

yet

its fun to watch the big picture although most people run away with 20-50 pips lol
the numbers are:

Start of test: 01/05/1989
end of test: 01/12/2010

total down month: 58
total new low: 44
total no new low: 15

sucsses %: 0.75%
  • #343,616
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:58am Dec 10, 2010 5:58am
For me it is a clear range market. I agree that downtrend more likely, but it is gambling not trading. For downtrend move needed confirmation by price action. I mean strong support level 1.3219 should be broken. Price should show it strength. And also, here (near support level) can be a good start for up trend with stop loss below 1.3217 with a good risk/reward rate.
  • #343,617
  • Dec 10, 2010 6:02am Dec 10, 2010 6:02am
Quoting mercy seat
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif 2010-12-08_23h21_ EURUSD _ Daily _ 1100 x 800.PNG (24.0 KB)


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif 2010-12-08_23h40_ EURUSD _ 030min _ 1100 x 800.PNG (26.5 KB)




2010-12-08 _ 23h30 CET _ EUR-USD : OUTLOOK (kommende 24...
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif 2010-12-10_12h33_Forex Focus - A Good New Year For The Yen +.pdf (8.1 KB)




FOREX FOCUS: A Good New Year For The Yen
By Nicholas Hastings
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN


FOREX FOCUS: A Good New Year For The Yen
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The yen will start 2011 on a high note.



;-)
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File Type: pdf 2010-12-10_12h33_Forex Focus - A Good New Year For The Yen +.pdf   8 KB | 283 downloads
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #343,618
  • Dec 10, 2010 6:02am Dec 10, 2010 6:02am
Quoting Piotr1
For me it is a clear range market. I agree that downtrend more likely, but it is gambling not trading. For downtrend move needed confirmation by price action. I mean strong support level 1.3219 should be broken. Price should show it strength. And also, here (near support level) can be a good start for up trend with stop loss below 1.3217 with a good risk/reward rate.
I like your post
  • #343,619
  • Dec 10, 2010 6:02am Dec 10, 2010 6:02am
Quoting Mr Hatch
Ladies and Gentlemen,

good afternoon.
GM Hatch
  • #343,620
  • Dec 10, 2010 6:02am Dec 10, 2010 6:02am
Quoting Mr Hatch
Ladies and Gentlemen,

good afternoon.
good afternoon
I SEE YOU !!
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