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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #21,821
  • Dec 8, 2010 7:19am Dec 8, 2010 7:19am
Pending order short at 84.33 with 12 pips SL with the trend which actually still down and against triple top. If SL hit, i'll go long after R2 daily PP will be broken, because 84.40 will be support instead of resistance.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #21,822
  • Dec 8, 2010 11:52am Dec 8, 2010 11:52am
today US dollar index movement quite strange to me...
look out at the attachment, the volatility are quite.... "strange"

though overall US dollar is gaining its power...

good for Yen buyer

-just sharing-
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,823
  • Dec 8, 2010 12:03pm Dec 8, 2010 12:03pm
I've got a long position on U/J at this moment since 83.00. It seems like it is a good time to take profit and open the short trade now.
€.
  • #21,824
  • Dec 8, 2010 2:39pm Dec 8, 2010 2:39pm
market looks like no direction and fluctuating in a range between 84.29 and 83.89. 1hr chart indicates lower high and lower low, but still no confirmation for down move. Consolidation?
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #21,825
  • Dec 8, 2010 9:37pm Dec 8, 2010 9:37pm
The JPY is struggling with breaking it resistance at 83.40 but there is a base support at 83.35 on TS line in ichimoku so I think that the price action will be violated during next trading sessions.
  • #21,826
  • Dec 9, 2010 12:51am Dec 9, 2010 12:51am
What about you traders?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...ncy-trade.html
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #21,827
  • Dec 9, 2010 1:17am Dec 9, 2010 1:17am
Quoting mima
What about you traders?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...ncy-trade.html
Probably be easy when the money isn't yours!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,828
  • Dec 9, 2010 1:35am Dec 9, 2010 1:35am
Quoting realjumper
Probably be easy when the money isn't yours!!
Ya, and no stearing in screens for hours....
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #21,829
  • Dec 9, 2010 10:33am Dec 9, 2010 10:33am
The UJ break the resistance at 83.40 earlier than I thought so it seems that market is in the bearish sentiment for JPY. yeah time to trade is here, btw dont forget to take a look at EJ.
  • #21,830
  • Dec 9, 2010 8:47pm Dec 9, 2010 8:47pm
Too quiet. With that strange calm, we could not expect reel move before New York session.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #21,831
  • Dec 9, 2010 11:25pm Dec 9, 2010 11:25pm
http://kiprushov.files.wordpress.com...12/image26.png
  • #21,832
  • Dec 10, 2010 12:06am Dec 10, 2010 12:06am
Do you think UJ can pushed back to 81 level?
  • #21,833
  • Dec 10, 2010 12:46am Dec 10, 2010 12:46am
Quoting kamikade
Do you think UJ can pushed back to 81 level?
Anything is possible, but it doesn't matter what we think.....we follow the pa, it doesn't follow us!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,834
  • Dec 10, 2010 4:41am Dec 10, 2010 4:41am
I have not read all the posts .. in fact I am fairly new here .. that's why I did not want to start a new thread.

My question is .. like I say, it may have been answered before .. how can anyone trade confidently using T/A or any other form of analysis, when everything seems to depend on the course of the USDollar .. which is known to turn on a dime?

for inst, the U-J looks bearish as can be .. but what about if the dollar decides to go back up >80 on the DXY? wouldn't that knock everything over .. where would the bearish U-J be then .. might as well read tealeaves!
  • #21,835
  • Dec 10, 2010 4:59am Dec 10, 2010 4:59am
Quoting Alfie
.. might as well read tealeaves!
Good point. Uncertainty is what you have to get used to.

Always have a backup plan, never bet the house, try to stay in the game, thrieve for small steady wins... Try to develop an edge, try to do what noone else does, you dont want to be a lemming

http://vogons.zetafleet.com/files/mac-lemmings.gif
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,836
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:07am Dec 10, 2010 5:07am
Quoting Alfie
I have not read all the posts .. in fact I am fairly new here .. that's why I did not want to start a new thread.

My question is .. like I say, it may have been answered before .. how can anyone trade confidently using T/A or any other form of analysis, when everything seems to depend on the course of the USDollar .. which is known to turn on a dime?

for inst, the U-J looks bearish as can be .. but what about if the dollar decides to go back up >80 on the DXY?...
Well you're right it takes 2 to tango.
Right now Yen doesn't display a clear trend of its own so USD behaviour is dominating UJ
On the other hand the pair gives some protection downwards due to intervention risks and all time low.
I think we are at a critical point atm and not only bearish, look at the possible inverse H&S

H1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #21,837
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:25am Dec 10, 2010 5:25am
Quoting Alfie
might as well read tealeaves!
Option 1 - Close your account and buy lottery tickets, but then again I prefer coffee to tea.

Option 2 - Open up your chart on your desired time frame. Draw on the prominent trend line. If bearish sell at said trend line, if bullish, buy at said trend line. This isn't about predicting the future, it's all about trading what price is doing. Once the trend line is broken (with confirmation), look to change your bias and once again trade in the way of the trend.

Technical analysis is self fulfilling. Markets are driven by supply and demand. More buyers and the price rises, more sellers and the price falls. If traders see an obvious supply or demand area they are likely to trade it. An obvious demand area and traders will buy pushing the price up and an obvious supply area and traders will look to sell pushing the price back down.

Strip your chart naked, keep it simple and you will be profitable.
Good luck mate and get rid of those tea leaves
  • #21,838
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:45am Dec 10, 2010 5:45am
thank you George and U-B for wise comments.

a trend of its own .. that might be the relevant thing to look for.

A Dominant Trend .. hmmmm! .. fluctuations within such dom-trend .. learn to ignore the USD .. sufficient confidence might enable .. have to sleep on that.

did I say sleep .. no way! not with 2 positions open .. short U-J & U-cad.

might add that I am using enough indicators, signals & theories to fill a Hercules transport .. but the one that eludes me is an entry that offers instant dynamics .. even if only temporary, but long enough to take part profit & set stop at break-even.

I know they're all doing it .....
  • #21,839
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:52am Dec 10, 2010 5:52am
and thank you too Fosking .. supply & demand .. trendlines .. keep it simple .. ok will have to give it a go.
  • #21,840
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:57am Dec 10, 2010 5:57am
Quoting Alfie
thank you George and U-B for wise comments.

a trend of its own .. that might be the relevant thing to look for.

A Dominant Trend .. hmmmm! .. fluctuations within such dom-trend .. learn to ignore the USD .. sufficient confidence might enable .. have to sleep on that.

did I say sleep .. no way!...
As fosking said, don't get caught with those indicators, simple trend lines e.g. demand/supply zones especially the horizontal ones plus some fundamental thinking is way enough imo
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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