Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected | Page 275 | Forex Factory

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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #5,481
  • Dec 7, 2010 8:13am Dec 7, 2010 8:13am
Quoting Vantage
Nice trade EV, whilst you never know when it'll do it when 85 breaks up it'll often go to 15. Anyway pips is pips. This is better than I've done over the last 2 days with all the interruptions.

Off to take out another pile of washing and then popping out to shops, then making dinner.

Mrs V's last slave died of over work.
Yes, I know all about interruptions, me old mate! I know exactly what you're going through, rest assured. Jack of all trades, and you'd better bloody well be master of them all.....or else!!!
  • #5,482
  • Dec 7, 2010 9:14am Dec 7, 2010 9:14am
Hi guys, new to the thread. I trade trend lines and pivots exclusively and I use MACD divergence for backup sometimes. Divergence is great for predicting when trends are running out of steam. Here's a trade I took on the Aussie dollar 20 minutes ago.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1291734820
  • #5,483
  • Dec 7, 2010 10:41am Dec 7, 2010 10:41am
Quoting mysterio
Hi guys, new to the thread. I trade trend lines and pivots exclusively and I use MACD divergence for backup sometimes. Divergence is great for predicting when trends are running out of steam. Here's a trade I took on the Aussie dollar 20 minutes ago.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1291734820
Nice TL break trade, mate, and welcome to the thread. Look forward to seeing more of your charts. If you're just using MACD for divergence, then I'll let you off!!
Thanks for the post.
  • #5,484
  • Dec 7, 2010 11:00am Dec 7, 2010 11:00am
Quoting mysterio
Hi guys, new to the thread. I trade trend lines and pivots exclusively and I use MACD divergence for backup sometimes. Divergence is great for predicting when trends are running out of steam. Here's a trade I took on the Aussie dollar 20 minutes ago.
Hi Mysterio
Cracking trade. Bit too risky for me as counter-trend and 15 min 13/34 hadnt crossed. However all clear on 5 min, so full credit to you.
Confirms what EV said to me a couple of days ago - Oz is well worth watching.

FYI there were some excellent set ups on Oil using this threads themes which I have posted on Vantages thread as someone there was also trading it, so I did a bit of research because I was trading it (and not mastering it) last year. 200 pip move in less than 2 hours, and less waiting around than forex.

EV I think you should cast your masterful eye over oil. Give me a few minutes and I will transfer an image from other computer.
  • #5,485
  • Dec 7, 2010 11:06am Dec 7, 2010 11:06am
as promised. Check out the pa around psychs (set for the moment at **00, 50, 80/20), PPs fib and TL. 15 min image taken much earlier, so on 5 min you can see full extent of the fall.
I will be watching now with a much keener intraday eye, rather than last years experiments with daily PP setups.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,486
  • Dec 7, 2010 12:09pm Dec 7, 2010 12:09pm
Quoting Barry Cade
as promised. Check out the pa around psychs (set for the moment at **00, 50, 80/20), PPs fib and TL. 15 min image taken much earlier, so on 5 min you can see full extent of the fall.
I will be watching now with a much keener intraday eye, rather than last years experiments with daily PP setups.
I checked US OIL out like you said, mate. Yes, you're quite right.....price DOES seem to react quite happily with the psych numbers e.g. 00, 25, 50, 75 on my chart. I notice the spread is around 5 or 6 pips. Is that what YOU get, Barry?
Even if that's the norm, it seems well worth keeping an eye on.
  • #5,487
  • Dec 7, 2010 12:18pm Dec 7, 2010 12:18pm
This is my Scottish Oil chart!! Looks kinda tartan to me, gonna have to lose some of those lines.

PS Scottish oil - tartan just joking of course.
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  • #5,488
  • Dec 7, 2010 12:25pm Dec 7, 2010 12:25pm
EV a quick look shows oil often has moves around US open around 2-3 gmt, worth looking at time something specific perhaps. Lots more watching needed though but it appears decent moves happen and you can be in and out fairly quickly.
  • #5,489
  • Dec 7, 2010 12:32pm Dec 7, 2010 12:32pm
OIL is the most volatile half commodity half currency market to trade.. with solid system u can nail this market very very quickly ..

even the beast pair GBP/ JPY is nothing compare to OIL
  • #5,490
  • Dec 7, 2010 2:00pm Dec 7, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting eyevoltage
I checked US OIL out like you said, mate. Yes, you're quite right.....price DOES seem to react quite happily with the psych numbers e.g. 00, 25, 50, 75 on my chart. I notice the spread is around 5 or 6 pips. Is that what YOU get, Barry?
Even if that's the norm, it seems well worth keeping an eye on.
I get 4 pips on "Daily Light US Crude" at IG Index.
  • #5,491
  • Dec 8, 2010 3:26am Dec 8, 2010 3:26am
Quoting Barry Cade
I get 4 pips on "Daily Light US Crude" at IG Index.
It looks very tradable. Any idea if pivots are useful and which times for parameters are best?
  • #5,492
  • Dec 8, 2010 3:31am Dec 8, 2010 3:31am
Quote
Nice TL break trade, mate, and welcome to the thread. Look forward to seeing more of your charts. If you're just using MACD for divergence, then I'll let you off!!

Thanks for the welcome. I am happy to post more trades as I take them. I am interested in reading about the candlestick pattern trades you use to add weight to trend line breaks. This is still a bit of a black art to me. I have some intuition about what I'm looking for but I am still learning. For now the MACD divergence seems to work very well for giving an early warning for a trend running out of steam. I am not here to clog up the thread with indicators though

Quote
Confirms what EV said to me a couple of days ago - Oz is well worth watching.

Absolutely. The spread is 1.6 (average) on my broker, so I only trade A/U along with E/U. As my trades typically only run for 20 - 40 pips giving more than 10% of the trade away as spread is unacceptable. The only problem is that the pairs are correlated and you might get a trend line break on both pairs at the same time (not often admittedly). Or you might even get opposing signals on both pairs. It is best having a plan for this kind of situation before you encounter it.

Regarding counter-trend trading, I take quite a lot of counter trend trades, although I suppose trading a trend line break is counter trend trading by definition. I always move my stop to break even after a move of around 8 - 10 pips. Here is a trade which I observed this morning, but I didn't trade because I was asleep. It is exactly the kind of thing I would normally take though even though technically it is against the 15 minute trend. The market gives you plenty of clues as to where to exit.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1291800635
  • #5,493
  • Dec 8, 2010 5:12am Dec 8, 2010 5:12am
Quoting zhdeef
It looks very tradable. Any idea if pivots are useful and which times for parameters are best?
Pivots definitely useful. In fact essential for me. Do some backtesting so you feel comfortable with it. It does react and frequently bounces back to PPs.
It also appears that psychs are useful too, but thats only from adding them yesterday. Its bounced off 88.20, 87.80 and 88.00 on 15 min chart this morning too.
  • #5,494
  • Dec 8, 2010 5:15am Dec 8, 2010 5:15am
Quoting mysterio

Regarding counter-trend trading, I take quite a lot of counter trend trades, although I suppose trading a trend line break is counter trend trading by definition. I always move my stop to break even after a move of around 8 - 10 pips. Here is a trade which I observed this morning, but I didn't trade because I was asleep. It is exactly the kind of thing I would normally take though even though technically it is against the 15 minute trend. The market gives you plenty of clues as to where to exit.
Like your trades using trend lines. Interesting that you didnt appear to take the less risky one as it bounced off upper TL then dropped below 98000 psych line. If you are new to these, just have a flick through for Eyevoltages charts & explanations - they are peerless.
  • #5,495
  • Dec 8, 2010 5:47am Dec 8, 2010 5:47am
Quoting Barry Cade
Pivots definitely useful. In fact essential for me. Do some backtesting so you feel comfortable with it. It does react and frequently bounces back to PPs.
It also appears that psychs are useful too, but thats only from adding them yesterday. Its bounced off 88.20, 87.80 and 88.00 on 15 min chart this morning too.
Thanks for the info.

I had a look at this morning's oil & made a small trade for 10 points from 8826. This has encouraged me to look for the first time at other stuff like indexes etc on IG. There's a lot out there, some of it with a reasonable spread. Has anyone traded indexes with this thread's methods?
  • #5,496
  • Dec 8, 2010 6:28am Dec 8, 2010 6:28am
Quoting zhdeef
Thanks for the info.

I had a look at this morning's oil & made a small trade for 10 points from 8826. This has encouraged me to look for the first time at other stuff like indexes etc on IG. There's a lot out there, some of it with a reasonable spread. Has anyone traded indexes with this thread's methods?
Ive just started looking at it. I was trading FTSE, DOW & DAX last year at specific times on a different style of trading, but have only just started trading again as my job is coming to an end.
From my involvement in this thread last year I dont think anyone else trades indices.

I keep the above indices and Oil charts up on a separate computer. However it gives you too much to watch at any given time. These 4 plus 4 currencies is way too much.

I was monitoring PPs on indices last month and ATRs for FTSE and DAX are less than 100. Yes they seem to react to this threads principles but the movements are not sufficiently attractive. Dow has a range that is much greater and can be 200. On the face of it much more appealing and most of the movement is after US open , so its easier to fit in with forex trading.

However, indices need additional market info for news releases as a couple of companies announcements can make a massive difference to the index. Ive noticed quite a few gaps, so like trading shares, there are additional complications.

Personally I want to focus on oil as the potential is massive, and to find the best indicators for my FXCM MT4 setup (its different to forex MT4). The others will have to wait.
  • #5,497
  • Dec 8, 2010 7:55am Dec 8, 2010 7:55am
For OIL important levels are 80 00 20

My 2 pips
  • #5,498
  • Dec 8, 2010 8:09am Dec 8, 2010 8:09am
Quoting hoichoi
For OIL important levels are 80 00 20

My 2 pips
Thanks Hoichoi. Certainly looks like it over last couple of days.
  • #5,499
  • Dec 9, 2010 4:43am Dec 9, 2010 4:43am
A nice TL break this morning on the 15m EU, which, unfortunately, I missed due to other commitments. The TL formed a confluence with the mid-point level, which made any break that much more promising. Entry would have been below the low of the two small candles on the TL. I know it was newstime, but that shouldn't have prevented a nice trade if a careful eye was watching at the same time.
Attached Image
  • #5,500
  • Dec 9, 2010 4:46am Dec 9, 2010 4:46am
A nice s/r-area, entry and exit as shown.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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