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  • #340,341
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:14pm Dec 6, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting pawpaw1000
For all the noobs like me, I'd like to share something I leanrt from a very respectable trader, Cloggie

1st, Patience! if your entry doesn't get triggered, too bad, don't chase the trade!

2nd, CONFLUENCE! watch the chart below. Got the BIG 3330 level, got PP at 3339 and got 50% retrace of down move all withing 10 pips! I got entry with only commission as DD and will soon move s/l to be...

Got s/l above 61.8% retrace as in my books, a retrace of more than that is a change in direction! I only use 38.2 50 and 61.8 retraces, the rest I find...
Here's chart!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #340,342
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:16pm Dec 6, 2010 2:16pm
anyone know when china monetary policy meeting is?

i was under the impression that it was tonight
  • #340,343
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:19pm Dec 6, 2010 2:19pm
Can every one assume sisse is probably smart enough to know that based on the good stuff he posts a'rd here that makes more sense than alot of the crap flyin thru the air lately?....[/quote]

hi, yes indeed. I missed Sisse's post, I was just responding to Karim.
I obviously missed the important bit which is the related pair.

So apologies
  • #340,344
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:26pm Dec 6, 2010 2:26pm
hi mfostel

does that mean USD will stronger?


Quoting mfoste1
anyone know when china monetary policy meeting is?

i was under the impression that it was tonight
  • #340,345
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:29pm Dec 6, 2010 2:29pm
May retest 3248 on aud news

http://img697.imageshack.us/img697/2959/get.gif
  • #340,346
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:30pm Dec 6, 2010 2:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
b careful.. oils high today may be a slap down. but if eu can top 3308 then 3311/12 may have some volume above it. 3308 signals 60 pips north min. after pullback. without it were setting a dive base up. the larger tf like 1,2,4h, ma's are rising as the lower tf are getting lower. we are in a squeeze..not much to slow us down if we break south till 29xx.. north has 34xx.. if oil recovers the 1$ it dropped today,89.95 is a big # to hold. it hasn't touched it yet. current high 89.73... a new high in oil has been good...
3365.8 is what i got here. less then originally posted. it was a hip shot before..
3364.6 or better.... the bear gartly that formed may be invalid at 3361.. but if you ignore last weeks top on the 15m, then draw a tl on the lower one till today s high 3364 will fit. the post above is rarely wrong.. but we have to play whats at hand.

if we dont touch 3364/65. then atm w/o going higher then we currently are. (3333) . techs point to 3139.5 area. but i still believe 3364/65 is gonna be molested and make the rest invalid. if it is touched (3364/65) then/and rejected. i will target 3173.4 st.. (next day or 2)
currently not looking so good.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #340,347
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:33pm Dec 6, 2010 2:33pm
Quoting wm-eu
i expect that the e/u is going back to 1.300, there we have to see which way it's choosing
Not necessarily... if you can expect it to go back to 1.3 you can expect it to go to 1.36

The trend is still positive until support (1.3187) is taken out followed by a lower low.
  • #340,348
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:34pm Dec 6, 2010 2:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
3365.8 is what i got here. less then originally posted. it was a hip shot before..
3364.6 or better.... the bear gartly that formed may be invalid at 3361.. but if you ignore last weeks top on the 15m, then draw a tl on the lower one till today s high 3364 will fit. the post above is rarely wrong.. but we have to play whats at hand.

if we dont touch 3364/65. then atm w/o going higher then we currently are. (3333) . techs point to 3139.5 area....
Gator 3300 supply (resistance) was hit exactly at the 62% fib retracement if you have taken a look at that. Respectively the 62% was hit to the pip and rejected.

I dont see anymore upside and I do see 31xx in the next day or 2.

My question to you is do you agree upside for intraday is done? I just hate the ny close and waiting of the open asia as anything goes there, hopefully just slow trickle down and watch asia try to rally a tadbit then start selling off again.

What do you see above as supply? Do you agree 3330?
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #340,349
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:34pm Dec 6, 2010 2:34pm
Quoting Magix
Nicely done Paw....

Sitting out this round, Ima gunna wait for something that smells like opportunity during Asian session..
Magix... followed your posts with great interest elsewhere, but you musta shorted a fuse somewhere to wade into this Pile Up...

In any event, good on ya... I guess.


Agree on the "wait for something" to smell better... this (1hr) chart looks like DOD to me... Done On Day. Bank 'em if ya got 'em and walk away.
..
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #340,350
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:36pm Dec 6, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting karimfx
and more.. 3333 is yesterday's low
look at monthly candles. its a fib also.. one i shorted a few months back.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #340,351
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:38pm Dec 6, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting freshtrader2
hi mfostel

does that mean USD will stronger?

well, it depends on what their stance on monetary policy is....
  • #340,352
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:39pm Dec 6, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting goods
Gator 3300 supply (resistance) was hit exactly at the 62% fib retracement if you have taken a look at that. Respectively the 62% was hit to the pip and rejected.

I dont see anymore upside and I do see 31xx in the next day or 2.

My question to you is do you agree upside for intraday is done? I just hate the ny close and waiting of the open asia as anything goes there, hopefully just slow trickle down and watch asia try to rally a tadbit then start selling off again.

What do you see above as supply? Do you agree 3330?
i give 3364/65 a 90% chance of being hit normally. before a new low is made.
i could be wrong. shit happens.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #340,353
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:43pm Dec 6, 2010 2:43pm
Some 12 hr stuff to chew on and I'm outa here... in the context of... THIS ONE (right direction but pessimistic on the target... $*it happens)

Careful trades all...

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FUBAR...
  • #340,354
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:44pm Dec 6, 2010 2:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
3365.8 is what i got here. less then originally posted. it was a hip shot before..
3364.6 or better.... the bear gartly that formed may be invalid at 3361.. but if you ignore last weeks top on the 15m, then draw a tl on the lower one till today s high 3364 will fit. the post above is rarely wrong.. but we have to play whats at hand.

if we dont touch 3364/65. then atm w/o going higher then we currently are. (3333) . techs point to 3139.5 area....
This is looking more like a bull continuation then a down move. So I concur with your view. The euro is really the only currency who gave back much to the dollar today, all the others look bullish - and so do commodities. If usd/jpy breaks below 82.50 there is trouble ahead for the dollar....

Still euro has a heavy supply zone right above Friday's high, I've got around 5 fibs there, from monthly, daily, and shorter time frames. I'm a bit peeved as I went short at 1.34 on Friday, and got stopped out after the Ben bullshit, now I have missed out on a good move.

Any opinion on RBA tonight? Unchanged seems likely. I highly doubt they will lower rates even with some bad data, they are a hawkish bunch and I am sure they are happy with the results.
  • #340,355
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:45pm Dec 6, 2010 2:45pm
Quoting ak4x
Some 12 hr stuff to chew on and I'm outa here...

Careful trades all...

Attachment
im waiting for the headfake....
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #340,356
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:46pm Dec 6, 2010 2:46pm
Well we are still contained in the shadow of the early London bear candle. Bulls will want 3364 to open up a chance at 3413/33. Bears again face good support against 3227/3246, with 3252 just ahead of that. I dont know what Asia will be able to accomplish tonite, but hopefully London will give us a little better action tomorrow. Good nite and good luck, PTL
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #340,357
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:48pm Dec 6, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting SugarTrade
This is looking more like a bull continuation then a down move. So I concur with your view. The euro is really the only currency who gave back much to the dollar today, all the others look bullish - and so do commodities. If usd/jpy breaks below 82.50 there is trouble ahead for the dollar....

Still euro has a heavy supply zone right above Friday's high, I've got around 5 fibs there, from monthly, daily, and shorter time frames. I'm a bit peeved as I went short at 1.34 on Friday, and got stopped out after the Ben bullshit, now...
not exactly. i look for a short climb before the dive.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #340,358
  • Edited 3:55pm Dec 6, 2010 2:53pm | Edited 3:55pm
we may know soon... 3312 or 3334.. either holds the flashlight. might be a wtf.. headfake soon
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #340,359
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:53pm Dec 6, 2010 2:53pm
to at least 3354 imo....maybe shirt @3380
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  • #340,360
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:54pm Dec 6, 2010 2:54pm
MAs all lining up so I think short around 3380 ?
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