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  • #340,201
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:10am Dec 6, 2010 10:10am
Quoting Scrat
oh wow. what a difference from friday, now everybody is short... or opening more shorts (or closing already opened shorts!)... i feel like a newbie among so many professionals here... i'm ashamed i am flat.
Better to be in no trade wishing you were in then a shit trade wishing you weren't....
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #340,202
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:12am Dec 6, 2010 10:12am
Quoting Magix
Better to be in no trade wishing you were in then a shit trade wishing you weren't....
A true word from a wise man.
  • #340,203
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:17am Dec 6, 2010 10:17am
Quoting kuroro001
Sad to hear buddy

Thank you Kuror
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #340,204
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:17am Dec 6, 2010 10:17am
Hi everybody,

at this point it seems very likely, that the upward correction is completed and EURUSD is heading further south. The move down since yesterday can be counted as an impulse on different TF's

Several scenarios may work out:

a) the above shown main count, where wave orange 4 is now completed and we are in wave orange 5 now

b) the orange 3 is not completed but was only subwave 1 of orange 3 (very bearish) but good likelyhood

c) the whole move down was an ABC, where A was orange 1 on my chart, B was orange 2 and C was orange 3. (impulse - correction - impulse). Maybe this ABC is wave 1 of a leading diagonal, so one would expect this move up to be a corrective wave 2 which retraces normally between 66 and 83% (4037) of wave 1. Possible, but with the now ongoing move down, which is easily counted as impulse, I would be surprised.

d) the move up (blue (WXY)) is Wave A of a flat correction, now down to at least 90% of wave A (3013) for wave B in a corrective move, then up in an impulse. This move is not so likely, because wave orange 2 was a flat correction too, and wave 2 and 4 have to fulfill the rule of alternation.


For now I will go with option a). If we get a very powerful impulse down now, I will eventually switch to option b (judging by having a very close look at Awesome Oscillator).


Now let us have a look solely on Murrey Math on a monthly chart with p=64.

EURUSD tends to run 7-8 MMTL before it reverses meaningfully. That would bring us down to at least 1.0742

See charts on my blog which can be accessed through my signature.

Trade safe and many pips to you all,

Markus
  • #340,205
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:19am Dec 6, 2010 10:19am
Quoting Scrat
oh wow. what a difference from friday, now everybody is short... or opening more shorts (or closing already opened shorts!)... i feel like a newbie among so many professionals here... i'm ashamed i am flat.
You dam well should be ashamed of your self. You rotten newbie.
  • #340,206
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:20am Dec 6, 2010 10:20am
Hi guys,

with watching the charts covering the last 4 hours, a song comes to mind...

"Let it range, oh lehet it range..."

3300-3250 is tight, who would have thought.
  • #340,207
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:22am Dec 6, 2010 10:22am
i am flat but my bias is bullish medium term until this level is taken. just waiting for a confirmation that intraday bears left the building.

Quoting TheCyberCore
3098 Posts, 10 votes. So don't hose us You're bullish?
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #340,208
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:23am Dec 6, 2010 10:23am
Quoting TheCyberCore
3098 Posts, 10 votes. So don't hose us You're bullish?
Great post Thanks.
  • #340,209
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:24am Dec 6, 2010 10:24am
Quoting goods
I just found out my friend died he was trading friend
please accept my condolences .
may his soul rest in peace .
I SEE YOU !!
  • #340,210
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:25am Dec 6, 2010 10:25am
Quoting TheCyberCore
Yes, as I see, lower TF has no meaning for higher TF, only if all lower TFs are in sync. Mostly then the move has already been done

I think I am flat until she found a direction to get a better position.
Not any neccessary , lowest tf is as heart , blood circulate through different organs or different tf a body in good circulation be seen. every higher ones one side & lowest ones opposite may do everything of a great trend change or reversal occure.

so lowest tf are the roots of all movements , when synchronize , one build the higher ones in a particulay dirrection , not neccessary all to go in the same direction at the same time .
Flat me too .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #340,211
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:27am Dec 6, 2010 10:27am
Quoting dbfusion
please accept my condolences .
may his soul rest in peace .

Thank you Db it is appreciated, its been a rough year with this.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #340,212
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:27am Dec 6, 2010 10:27am
Quoting Magix
All we did is back fill on volume and price...balanced the books so to speak, from NFP...

We could continue the drop, but I am just seeing this as a backfill to clear the way for the H4 target zone, 1.3507ish....
Look who is here , Wise man
I have seen ur chart u posted yesterday or today early ur target Hit :-)
I didn't comment because haven't much time but i smile know it will Hit
  • #340,213
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:27am Dec 6, 2010 10:27am
Hi,

We had a bearish day. Daily pivot point was crossed but found support on weekly pivot point + daily S1. Not enough force to go through. Retrace looks like very week. It spends less than 4 hours staying above 50% retrace of last down move against 65 hours to make this retrace. We are below 38.2%. Should we expect some high than continue down move?
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #340,214
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:30am Dec 6, 2010 10:30am
Possible bear flag might take us to next fib level
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  • #340,215
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:31am Dec 6, 2010 10:31am
Quoting Alki
Hi,

We had a bearish day. Daily pivot point was crossed but found support on weekly pivot point + daily S1. Not enough force to go through. Retrace looks like very week. It spends less than 4 hours staying above 50% retrace of last down move against 65 hours to make this retrace. We are below 38.2%. Should we expect some high than continue down move?

I am looking for 3280 to finally give into exhaustion for failure to trade above. My next target to break down is 3250. Until then I am sideways but overall down, we will see anything can happen though.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #340,216
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:36am Dec 6, 2010 10:36am
Gold aproaching its all time high. Will we see a double top? huge macd and rsi divergence on daily tf could indicate this.
  • #340,217
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:37am Dec 6, 2010 10:37am
Seems to be a little quantity for sale in this area...stall range 38.2 from daily roll...
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #340,218
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:38am Dec 6, 2010 10:38am
Quoting fontu
Not any neccessary , lowest tf to is as heart , blood circulation through different organs or different tf a body in good circulation be seen. every higher ones one side & lowest ones opposite may change everything of a great trend change or reversal occure.

so lowest tf are the roots of all movements , when synchronize , one build the higher ones in a particulay dirrection , not neccessary all to go in the same direction at the same time .
Flat me too .
fontu
Fontu, I agree but only in theory. Any move will always start with a change of direction in the smallest visible chart (i.e 1 tick). The problem is that in practice is almost impossible to recognize (before the fact) which change of direction will develop in a further move and which one is just random noise.

An easy case to exemplify this, is to check this year low 1.187x in Jul. If you plot a 1 tick chart or to make it easier a 5 mins chart after the fact surely you will recognize that when that 5 min mini reversal at 16:00 that started the the uptrend was THE ONE to take to catch the perfect entry long and it obviously occurred "ages" before the H1/H4/Daily or Weekly chart confirmed the reversal.

However in practice, the last 50 5 mins reversals during just the last 2 days (not to mention the last 3 weeks) before the bottom would have put you under a massive loss. In other words, yes is true that lowest tf are the roots of all movements but not necessarily tell you which one or when to take them and thats when higher timeframes lead.

As you know in trading is not why or only how but when, in that sense IMO the equilibrium is given by use them as triggers of a bigger picture....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #340,219
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:38am Dec 6, 2010 10:38am
Quoting egkid
Look who is here , Wise man
I have seen ur chart u posted yesterday or today early ur target Hit :-)
I didn't comment because haven't much time but i smile know it will Hit
Hey EG...best of the season to you and yours.

Lotta choppy waters going into the new year, ought to create some nice playable ranges...certainly not for the weak of heart or account...

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #340,220
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:40am Dec 6, 2010 10:40am
i hate this range. seriously. got burned twice, shorting it, covering, shorting, covering. luckily im still holding my lots from higher up, but this sucks.
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