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AUD/USD

  • #25,661
  • Dec 4, 2010 1:40am Dec 4, 2010 1:40am
Quoting grashid
correct...

as long as AUD not broke and hold any H1/H4 above 0.98436, sell all rallies from .98 area is still on..

Otherwise i am not suprice if it could go back to 1.01-1.05 area.....
cheers

g

............then my turn
  • #25,662
  • Dec 4, 2010 2:21pm Dec 4, 2010 2:21pm
Many People said in June 2008 "were in a Strong Uptrend..."

And it goes the next two years are in the Other direction.

Congratulation to the Politikans, Bankers, and Centralbanks, especially Heli-Ben!

They stopped the Armageddon.

The Industries roling like hell, especially in Europe.

The EZB will raise the minimum Bidrate as first Central Bank, Gold fall like its raise...very soon

I will Post Charts.

Goldmann Sachs predict the Goldprise at 1750$ like they do it in June 2008 with the Oil, Euro, DJ etc.

They want to collect the Money from all the Investors. Same procedure as 2 Jears ago, other direction.

I said ALL IN

http://www.pic-upload.de/view-799857...nthly.jpg.html
lieber aufrecht sterben als kniend leben
  • #25,663
  • Dec 4, 2010 10:58pm Dec 4, 2010 10:58pm
Quoting Kenjii
thoughts on the NFP release ? wait till after before opening a position ?
nfp? don't ever trade before nfp.
  • #25,664
  • Dec 5, 2010 1:50am Dec 5, 2010 1:50am
Hey dudes, do u know where to look the current real time cotization of aussie on sunday?

I see in TV that EURUSD has drop 50 pips since friday...

Thanks,
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #25,665
  • Dec 5, 2010 2:23am Dec 5, 2010 2:23am
Quoting mrbandwidth
Hey dudes, do u know where to look the current real time cotization of aussie on sunday?

I see in TV that EURUSD has drop 50 pips since friday...

Thanks,
http://www.xe.com/
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #25,666
  • Dec 5, 2010 7:13am Dec 5, 2010 7:13am
Does it strike anyone as odd that, during a time when the very solvency of European governments is in question, the ASX goes nowhere for a year and a half? I mean this is the most turmoil in a lifetime and nothing happens in the stock market! Just back and forth.


But the bond markets haven't been anywhere near as dull. The 10 year yield, which most American mortgage rates are pegged to, jumped the most in years, according to Peter Schiff. He also points out that the EU debt crisis became a problem because interest rates began rising. Now that this is happening in the US, it could be the big hint of sovereign trouble for the US.

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  • #25,667
  • Dec 5, 2010 8:24am Dec 5, 2010 8:24am
Quoting LittlePotofg
Does it strike anyone as odd that, during a time when the very solvency of European governments is in question, the ASX goes nowhere for a year and a half? I mean this is the most turmoil in a lifetime and nothing happens in the stock market! Just back and forth.


But the bond markets haven't been anywhere near as dull. The 10 year yield, which most American mortgage rates are pegged to, jumped the most in years, according to Peter Schiff. He also points out that the EU debt crisis became a problem because...
there is already huge sovereign problem in the us they just havent been brought to light yet... the asx hasnt moved because its not really pegged to the usd not to much us money is in australia.. so what your seeing is the rise in the aussy market and the rise in the cost of the aussy dollar and they has no debt problems like the rest of the world.. and commodities will push them forward.. everyone complains about the price of housing in austalia.. but your living on an island this thing isnt a bubble your gonna pay more for something on an island than not.. look at usa tho and tell me why our PPP sits at or above austalia which is an island.. we are paying island prices not being on an island.. we have over inflated ourselves and will continue to over inflate ourselves till everything busts.
  • #25,668
  • Dec 5, 2010 8:58am Dec 5, 2010 8:58am
Quoting domino
there is already huge sovereign problem in the us they just havent been brought to light yet... the asx hasnt moved because its not really pegged to the usd not to much us money is in australia.. so what your seeing is the rise in the aussy market and the rise in the cost of the aussy dollar and they has no debt problems like the rest of the world.. and commodities will push them forward.. everyone complains about the price of housing in austalia.. but your living on an island this thing isnt a bubble your gonna pay more for something on an island...
very good points.
  • #25,669
  • Dec 5, 2010 12:51pm Dec 5, 2010 12:51pm
Quoting damo
I think it may be the RBA selling it down at around parity. They often silently intervene. They did last time it hit .60 (bought to prop it up). For the mining to operate effectively on the world market our dollar needs to trade between .7 and .8. With high interest rates the only way to get the dollar back down is to sell it. But everything else you said makes good economics.
Hmmm, so the Chinese will buy it at .98, but you still wanna give it to 'em for .70-.80?
  • #25,670
  • Dec 5, 2010 12:56pm Dec 5, 2010 12:56pm
Quoting LittlePotofg
Does it strike anyone as odd that, during a time when the very...
Who's buying? Why should I be in the ASX? It's a tiny market with no liquidity. Who's investing in Australia? Why? They're bankers wanting 6%, not cowboys wanting to ride stocks. These are very boring long term moves happening.
  • #25,671
  • Edited 1:41pm Dec 5, 2010 1:39pm | Edited 1:41pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
Who's buying? Why should I be in the ASX? It's a tiny market with no liquidity. Who's investing in Australia? Why? They're bankers wanting 6%, not cowboys wanting to ride stocks. These are very boring long term moves happening.
Could be the case if you have multi million $ portfolios, but i do personaly know a handfull of people who have done extremely well bying penny junior miners over the years though obviously they were longer term investors rather than traders.
The options market in OZ can be very frustrating due to low liquidity, you can find youself unable to exit in many cases.
Biggest joker
  • #25,672
  • Dec 5, 2010 4:54pm Dec 5, 2010 4:54pm
with interest rate unchange tmr, we might see going down to .96level, if not going for parity again, then going down from parity...

what ya guys/ladies think?
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #25,673
  • Dec 5, 2010 6:53pm Dec 5, 2010 6:53pm
Quoting bskwak1124
with interest rate unchange tmr, we might see going down to .96level, if not going for parity again, then going down from parity...

what ya guys/ladies think?
interest rate unchanged just means its going to remain expensive to short just not more expensive than before.. lol
  • #25,674
  • Dec 5, 2010 7:33pm Dec 5, 2010 7:33pm
do you guys think the price is gonna go down to 9870nish or up to test the 9950 again ?
  • #25,675
  • Dec 5, 2010 7:46pm Dec 5, 2010 7:46pm
Quoting bskwak1124
with interest rate unchange tmr, we might see going down to .96level, if not going for parity again, then going down from parity...

what ya guys/ladies think?
altho on the other hand we may be experiencing pressures from natural capital flows around the parity level where the currency price is making imports cheap and as industry and retail import foreign goods it will cause a natural selloff of the aussy dollar creating some stability. because the goods imported have to be bought with foreign monies.. so they have to be exchanged.. odds are that may be where the supply is coming from around here.. i would look at import levels to see what the capital flow is like.....
  • #25,676
  • Dec 5, 2010 11:08pm Dec 5, 2010 11:08pm
Quoting damo
I think it may be the RBA selling it down at around parity. They often silently intervene. They did last time it hit .60 (bought to prop it up). For the mining to operate effectively on the world market our dollar needs to trade between .7 and .8. With high interest rates the only way to get the dollar back down is to sell it. But everything else you said makes good economics.
The RBA would simply lower the interest rates if they wanted to devalue the aussie. They are a hawkish bank, and I am sure they would tell you that their current monetary policy has been effective in cooling the economy. As you may note from recent data. Australia's mining sector may not be the low cost producer in the market at this time, but it is still very lucrative given current metal prices. That being said, 1 is a very strong psychological level. A/U did trade above it for awhile though.

The Australian dollar is the in Vogue risk currency, the Australian economy is in great shape, and many other currencies are being devalued by varying forms of intervention. Personally, I believe the Australian dollars biggest plight at this time is the Dollar/Yuan peg.

Anyways, enough of that. I find this to be a bullish setup, bouncing off a short-term fib confluence zone at .9865, with the first target at .996, and a second one right around parity. If the S&P rallies this week the aussie could retest highs, despite economic data that his been dissappointing.
  • #25,677
  • Dec 6, 2010 3:17am Dec 6, 2010 3:17am
I just closed two shorts on the Aussie,...With all the anticipation on the announcement of the RBA decision i think best thing to do is not try to scratch your head on what they are gonna do,...but the reaction from the market after the announcement...Sidelines for me till then,...
  • #25,678
  • Dec 6, 2010 4:20am Dec 6, 2010 4:20am
Quoting WallStBully
I just closed two shorts on the Aussie,...With all the anticipation on the announcement of the RBA decision i think best thing to do is not try to scratch your head on what they are gonna do,...but the reaction from the market after the announcement...Sidelines for me till then,...
Thinking the market has already priced in the no rate change, so if the dialogue is in any way positive I think you will see an up trend to break new highs.
  • #25,679
  • Dec 6, 2010 6:45am Dec 6, 2010 6:45am
Quoting WallStBully
I just closed two shorts on the Aussie,...With all the anticipation on the announcement of the RBA decision i think best thing to do is not try to scratch your head on what they are gonna do,...but the reaction from the market after the announcement...Sidelines for me till then,...
especially after what the rba did last rate decision.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #25,680
  • Dec 6, 2010 7:36am Dec 6, 2010 7:36am
Australia has bad Retail Sales data for 3 months.
Two consecutive bad CPI.
Employment tappering with even an increase of 0.4% in unemployment.

All these points to a No Rate Hike in the next RBA meeting.
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