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AUD/USD

  • #25,641
  • Dec 3, 2010 12:36am Dec 3, 2010 12:36am
I have been trading this pair aggressively. I wouldn't disagree at this moment of time with regards to the H&S pattern in daily time frame. However, I will discourage traders to go short right now because of few things -
1) Today is NFP data release. Should wait until its release to project a clear direction of US $ strength.
2) AUD is correlated to Gold and there are few strong buys in Gold today from a sovereign wealth management.
3) Daily time frame stochastics have gone out of Oversold area.
4) There is bullish thrust candle in H4 indicating overwhelming buyers and there are still strong demand for it to go till 0.9820

I suggest we wait to go short or follow buying momentum till Tuesday morning where the RBA will release its rate hike decision which I strongly believe will remain at status quo = 4.75%.

Patience is a virtue and comes with it is opportunity.
  • #25,642
  • Dec 3, 2010 1:16am Dec 3, 2010 1:16am
Quoting Fazpips
I have been trading this pair aggressively. I wouldn't disagree at this moment of time with regards to the H&S pattern in daily time frame. However, I will discourage traders to go short right now because of few things -
1) Today is NFP data release. Should wait until its release to project a clear direction of US $ strength.
2) AUD is correlated to Gold and there are few strong buys in Gold today from a sovereign wealth management.
3) Daily time frame stochastics have gone out of Oversold area.
4) There is bullish thrust candle in H4 indicating...
correct...

as long as AUD not broke and hold any H1/H4 above 0.98436, sell all rallies from .98 area is still on..

Otherwise i am not suprice if it could go back to 1.01-1.05 area.....

cheers

g
  • #25,643
  • Dec 3, 2010 1:46am Dec 3, 2010 1:46am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting Fazpips
I have been trading this pair aggressively. I wouldn't disagree at this moment of time with regards to the H&S pattern in daily time frame. However, I will discourage traders to go short right now because of few things -
1) Today is NFP data release. Should wait until its release to project a clear direction of US $ strength.
2) AUD is correlated to Gold and there are few strong buys in Gold today from a sovereign wealth management.
3) Daily time frame stochastics have gone out of Oversold area.
4) There is bullish thrust candle in H4 indicating...
You are right in what you are saying except I think that the market has priced in the no rate rise. When times are uncertain people are looking for safe havens and at the moment the aussie economy looks fairy stable and is offering high interest rates. This is a big enticement for instittional investors. They will buy at all dips.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #25,644
  • Dec 3, 2010 4:16am Dec 3, 2010 4:16am
Have been long the AUD/USD of late and have enjoyed the benefit of the carry trade (as I hold my positions for longer durations).
Can anyone suggest carry trades that are just as good as the AUD/USD or better??
Cheers
  • #25,645
  • Dec 3, 2010 4:21am Dec 3, 2010 4:21am
Quoting timster
Have been long the AUD/USD of late and have enjoyed the benefit of the carry trade (as I hold my positions for longer durations).
Can anyone suggest carry trades that are just as good as the AUD/USD or better??
Cheers

Another good Carry Trade is AUD/JPY. Check with your broker with regards to the percentage they are giving for long trades. Be mindful of the overnight swap or rollover rates. Different brokers operates differently.

Cheers!
  • #25,646
  • Dec 3, 2010 4:27am Dec 3, 2010 4:27am
Quoting damo
You are right in what you are saying except I think that the market has priced in the no rate rise. When times are uncertain people are looking for safe havens and at the moment the aussie economy looks fairy stable and is offering high interest rates. This is a big enticement for instittional investors. They will buy at all dips.
Hi Damo,

You are not wrong, because there are overwhelming carry trade traders who are buying on dips. But there are also insti traders who are determine to bring down this pair and also commercial traders who are hedging with regards to US$ appreciation. I am not surprise if the market test parity levels again but I am sure with huge sellers of Gold next week will bring the pair down. And this may be coincide with the RBA rate announcement.

Cheers!
  • #25,647
  • Dec 3, 2010 4:29am Dec 3, 2010 4:29am
Quoting Fazpips
Another good Carry Trade is AUD/JPY. Check with your broker with regards to the percentage they are giving for long trades. Be mindful of the overnight swap or rollover rates. Different brokers operates differently.

Cheers!
Cheers for the tips & the warnings - great help. I'm with IGMarkets so no swap rate applies, they don't close my trade - they pay (or I pay) interest each day on positions open.
  • #25,648
  • Dec 3, 2010 4:30am Dec 3, 2010 4:30am
9820 may have some resistance, it should not fall below 9780 before hitting 9840-70
Biggest joker
  • #25,649
  • Dec 3, 2010 4:41am Dec 3, 2010 4:41am
Sell AUD/USD at 0.9815, TP 0.9700, SL 0.9840.
  • #25,650
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:48am Dec 3, 2010 5:48am
Sell AUD/USD at 9815. TP - 9700. SL - 9855
good HS pattern! showing some resistance at H&S neckline.
  • #25,651
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:55am Dec 3, 2010 5:55am
Quoting Fibo_trader
Sell AUD/USD at 0.9815, TP 0.9700, SL 0.9840.
i am too,wanna short aud but its NFP today! r u not afraid of the huge swing? u short based on??
  • #25,652
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:12am Dec 3, 2010 6:12am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting Fazpips
Hi Damo,

You are not wrong, because there are overwhelming carry trade traders who are buying on dips. But there are also insti traders who are determine to bring down this pair and also commercial traders who are hedging with regards to US$ appreciation. I am not surprise if the market test parity levels again but I am sure with huge sellers of Gold next week will bring the pair down. And this may be coincide with the RBA rate announcement.

Cheers!
I think it may be the RBA selling it down at around parity. They often silently intervene. They did last time it hit .60 (bought to prop it up). For the mining to operate effectively on the world market our dollar needs to trade between .7 and .8. With high interest rates the only way to get the dollar back down is to sell it. But everything else you said makes good economics.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #25,653
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:20am Dec 3, 2010 6:20am
Quoting damo
I think it may be the RBA selling it down at around parity. They often silently intervene. They did last time it hit .60 (bought to prop it up). For the mining to operate effectively on the world market our dollar needs to trade between .7 and .8. With high interest rates the only way to get the dollar back down is to sell it. But everything else you said makes good economics.
Spot on! You are very well versed. I appreciate intellectual traders.
Happy pipping!
  • #25,654
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:34am Dec 3, 2010 6:34am
thoughts on the NFP release ? wait till after before opening a position ?
  • #25,655
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:35am Dec 3, 2010 6:35am
Quoting fxking
i am too,wanna short aud but its NFP today! r u not afraid of the huge swing? u short based on??
3h fibonacci. My SL is small, so it is ok. If I will see that AUD till NFP will not drop, I will close my short, maybe not. I will watch what will happen. 35p at 100p+ profit is nothing of what I need afraid.
  • #25,656
  • Dec 3, 2010 7:50am Dec 3, 2010 7:50am
Quoting FX-Petra
9850 approaches. While not yet in the bag...I have moved stops to BE + 10.... and I have loaded my Jeff Buckley "Hallelujah" CD just in case it hits!


Good trades to all!

Regards,
Hallelujah, Hallelujah

Hallelujah, Halleluuuooojah!

I would now like to flip short. However, my first instict is usually wrong by 100-200 pips, so I will wait for the 9950 area to start building a position.

Regards,
  • #25,657
  • Edited 8:29am Dec 3, 2010 8:14am | Edited 8:29am
Quoting FX-Petra
Hallelujah, Hallelujah

Hallelujah, Halleluuuooojah!

I would now like to flip short. However, my first instict is usually wrong by 100-200 pips, so I will wait for the 9950 area to start building a position.

Regards,
Though probably we are going to see a correction to 9780-9825 area, your instinct serves you well: the trend is strong and still UP, I think it will be until 9930-9950 zone.
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #25,658
  • Dec 3, 2010 1:30pm Dec 3, 2010 1:30pm
Been quite some time since the dollar has taken an across the board beating like this and stocks did not rise. Obviously, the US empolyment numbers spooked wall street. We will see if the equity rally resumes next week---- I think it probably will.

Regards,
  • #25,659
  • Dec 3, 2010 2:52pm Dec 3, 2010 2:52pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Been quite some time since the dollar has taken an across the board beating like this and stocks did not rise. Obviously, the US empolyment numbers spooked wall street. We will see if the equity rally resumes next week---- I think it probably will.

Regards,
Im cool with it made some money.. guess its good that we can make money as this thing circles the drains
  • #25,660
  • Dec 3, 2010 4:20pm Dec 3, 2010 4:20pm
Quoting mrbandwidth
Though probably we are going to see a correction to 9780-9825 area...

Ufffff, EPIC FAIL... Sorry, guys.
Use me as a contrarian indicator
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