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EURUSD

  • #337,881
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:43am Dec 2, 2010 10:43am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Malcolmb,

hope you made a ton of pips today.

I hope it runs a little bit more up, but it has to stay beneath 3302. If it pops above, my main Elliott Wave count wil be invalidated.

3245 may be a good target.

We will see

they been bag holding eu all the way down.

it confused my vsa trading buddies much like it did me .. but on a 2 hour charts massive volumes were comingi n on the down bars that would send eu back up 50 to 90 pip , this was buying...

1.33 should be tested , for today's days range is done and there are 2 x high volume pivots from 5 and 4 days back at 1,3240. above this 1.3320 next stop .. there are 2 there.

IF ....for some reason eu gets back into the channel above 1.33 then this could be a fake out break out of the bear flag / weekly channel , which one would have to ignore all the doom and gloom out of euro to truly believe.

We also have to remember that Euro issues have been there for more than just this month BUT it still managed to go from 1.2xxx to 1.4

ignore the news ..trade the charts

dj and s and may see new yearly highs tomorrow .... if everyone was that worried about the Euro issues why would DAX and dj consistently be hitting new highs ?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #337,882
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:43am Dec 2, 2010 10:43am
I know is amateurish saying this and I hate saying it but freaking ECB ruined my trade....

I usually don't look back on missed opportunities or stopped out trades but sometimes you just need to say it out loud to an audience who, I am sure, have had the same felling once in a while ....lol

Well let see what the market brings tomorrow.

sisse
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Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #337,883
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:46am Dec 2, 2010 10:46am
Quoting reaperunique
No it wasn't easy, on all of those you call easy I made nothing but loss. And don't give me: "look for S/R". I looked for those, I waited entered and still got taken out.

Go back over my posts, I gave the scenario pre conference, while he was on I posted the reasoning for shorts, I then posted the chart for the target, I then talked it all the way back up to 3180 here. Filter some of the noise on the thread here, there were plenty that have been going on about the ECB conference and plenty here gave valid technical reasons for the bounce and the run back up.

Today was fundamental driven with technical targets, if you are not comfortable trading the news stay out.
  • #337,884
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:47am Dec 2, 2010 10:47am
Quoting grashid
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=335788

mate....

Price action are in phase by phase which can been seen in all TF....
bigger TF able to let you know where is the phases...then you may study the fndamental relative to this phases....if you smart enough and do some homework, you be able to make a good prediction what will be and what will not vs what movemen tin your chart....

Here is my same chart as posted before...


p/s: to adding short at current price is not a good idea...understanding sell...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=336984

I will observe as per mentioned Phase 1 area: 1.32-1.33,
then Phase 2 at 1.35-1.36.

This week close above 1.3350 and next week close above 1.3450....may have tendency for a medium term reversal to bullshit move....
Then perhaps to visit back to at least 1.4080 area is there....for my food to min 1.27-1.26 area...later

Here is the same chart as posted b4 and I believe NFP would drive it even higher and broke this Phase 1 Resistance for testing to Phase 2 area. If happen i would carefully look into this before decide my new setting...

Perhaps this movement is for Portugal, Spain and so on.....

Just my 2 cent....cheers

P/S: i love to see my weekly and monthly at the moment

g
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  • #337,885
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:47am Dec 2, 2010 10:47am
Quoting mikej2010
"EURUSD – Forex crowd trading sentiment shows that traders have recently turned bearish the EURUSD, giving contrarian signal to watch for further strength.

The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.05 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.01 as 50% of open positions were short.

In detail, long positions are 4.9% lower than yesterday and 5.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.8% lower than yesterday and 10.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.9% weaker than yesterday...
yes, as I mentioned earlier on, this is a retracement in a bearish trend. I am expecting it to go to the 3280ish (0.382 daily fib and 200 daily EMA) before the reversal.
  • #337,886
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:47am Dec 2, 2010 10:47am
Quoting mikej2010
"EURUSD – Forex crowd trading sentiment shows that traders have recently turned bearish the EURUSD, giving contrarian signal to watch for further strength.

it seems to me this rally is a 'false' rally with no foundation.
Add NFP / Friday/ holidays/ year end --- think you got something stops pushing this up to fall on last moves fibo
  • #337,887
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:47am Dec 2, 2010 10:47am
Quoting aiyoyo
Did you mean you still have your position opened? and waiting for your next target to be hit, expecting it will go higher.

Just curious, I want to study how other exit cause my exit strategy sucks. haha
No, got stopped out same as you before for -8
Laid flat for a while watching the price and I thought, 80 is going to get broken but wasn't really sure. Decided to wait until after it was broken but when I looked back the train had left.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #337,888
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:47am Dec 2, 2010 10:47am
Quoting reaperunique
great day, lost all my profit of this week, 5 losers. Whenever I went short it went up, whenever I went long it went down.
any lesson learned?
  • #337,889
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:48am Dec 2, 2010 10:48am
Quoting wormboy
if price passes the retest of the recently broken 3216 supp/res, the next i/d supp/res is @1.33, which coincidentally is the underside of the recently broken bullish ltl (7th June low @1.1875 - 10th Sept swing @1.2624)

Time to be flat. Good luck
here comes the retest
Thank You
  • #337,890
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:48am Dec 2, 2010 10:48am
Quoting Mr Hatch
i for sure got f***** today. i was trapped, bailed out, did not re-enter... am flat with a huge hit to today's statistic leaving me the minimum not to call it a lost day. sure they just want a retracement?

and the absolutely worst thing is that it was me who posted about the bond purchase... but i thought, how bad could that be in the current state?


Hi Mr. Hatch,

nearly same with me. Won, lost, won, lost, won, lost big (greedy). i hate that, because I tried to position for a long term short position.

Gladly I sensed the last break out 30 minutes ago and did a very nice scalp.

So I am a little bit above BE. Not satisfying after such a day.

I got everytime in trouble when I try to position a long term position. I think I should stick to scalping, that works everytime for me :-(
  • #337,891
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:48am Dec 2, 2010 10:48am
Quoting reaperunique
great day, lost all my profit of this week, 5 losers. Whenever I went short it went up, whenever I went long it went down.

eu is doing a bunch of shake outs .. it is now xmas trading season .... expect more of this pa for all dec,

I mean damn eu today -150 +180......I bet many accounts got hit hard today

At least you are not down for the week. I know not really what you want to hear .... but you survive for another round when a trade presents itself
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #337,892
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:49am Dec 2, 2010 10:49am
Quoting vlady1974
No, got stopped out same as you before for -8
Laid flat for a while watching the price and I thought, 80 is going to get broken but wasn't really sure. Decided to wait until after it was broken but when I looked back the train had left.

December will do that to you, once a trigger goes she goes in a hurry. I miss plenty of setups during this month due to the volatility. I normally don't trade now, but wanted to see how the month develops. Snowing like crazy here anyways so nothing else to do.
  • #337,893
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:51am Dec 2, 2010 10:51am
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making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #337,894
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:51am Dec 2, 2010 10:51am
Quoting wormboy
here comes the retest
PASS
  • #337,895
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:53am Dec 2, 2010 10:53am
bbl, need to put my head into someone's lap for a while.
  • #337,896
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:53am Dec 2, 2010 10:53am
Quoting Mr Hatch
bbl, need to put my head into someone's lap for a while.

Get a dog.
  • #337,897
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:55am Dec 2, 2010 10:55am
not sure
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  • #337,898
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:55am Dec 2, 2010 10:55am
Quoting aiyoyo
Did you mean you still have your position opened? and waiting for your next target to be hit, expecting it will go higher.

Just curious, I want to study how other exit cause my exit strategy sucks. haha
Okay... took a Long position at target from this morning since it's now been breached and retested.

LONG @ 1.32264 TP unspecified but usually +20 pips (1.3246) before we see movement towards 1.33XX
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #337,899
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:56am Dec 2, 2010 10:56am
Quoting cloggie
Get a dog.
why not a chick
  • #337,900
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:56am Dec 2, 2010 10:56am
Please don't take this too seriously.
But could happen.
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