Took the same !
(as usual)
- #2,982
- Dec 1, 2010 3:43am Dec 1, 2010 3:43am
Took the same !
(as usual)
But closed at +18 !!! Should have been waaaitiiing a bit mooore !!
Well done Willkohsg!
i didnt put a TP on my trades, * finger ready on close all script*
dont worry about getting monster runs.
i agree with ur previous post.
we need to practise in stimulator and read " trading in the zone"
that book is great for tuning the mind to avoid things that Survivor has mentioned.
I am can understand what Duffyprat is driving at,
cos we keep repeating confluence everytime but the fact seems to be that the confluence is always there or something.. so that in fact nullifies it since it's a repeat occuring situation?
Perhaps all he wants to do is to find a statistical edge to this method that can be mathematically proven ?
That could prove very useful and give us greater confidence in trading this method and i hope someone with the math skills can do it
- #2,983
- Dec 1, 2010 3:48am Dec 1, 2010 3:48am
Me too... closed for 53 pips. A bit unusual feeling to make so much in one move, because lately i barely even make 20 pips and trading almost break even for the last few months.
off Dance u know?
just joking.. it's good to make huge pips but need to bear in mind this is a one off thing that doesnt come by everyday, or else we'll get into the danger of what survivor mentioned earlier..
Messiahua, what has been ur obstacle in making pips from Dance?
u said u're having hard time making pips from Dance?
- #2,984
- Dec 1, 2010 3:57am Dec 1, 2010 3:57am
Messiahua, what has been ur obstacle in making pips from Dance?
I guess the only solution right now is time and practice.
Thanks for asking.
P.S. I think, that the main obstacle is myself
- #2,985
- Dec 1, 2010 4:03am Dec 1, 2010 4:03am
Hard to tell for sure. Often I enter wrong or too early or too late or I don't see any entry or there are a lot of contradicting signals. Btw before this recent move there was a strong rejection near 1.56, so one more problem - doubt.
I guess the only solution right now is time and practice.
Thanks for asking.
will try to help each other as much as we can, all rocking in the same boat~
yeah u're right messiahua perhaps more time in the sim will build up ur confidence and positive expectancy,on the other side of coin it trains u too to have confidence in letting ur hard stops remain where they are.
Do read the "trading in the zone" it helps but u need some time to digest and apply the material not easy for sure but it will change ur mentality and ur perspective
Hi Christos, what does your statement imply for the Dance trades ?
I am curious to know
Regards,
willkohsg
it's to do with the 15M touch trades (usually the 10EMA ones) where you see the price moving up to the EMA (let's suppose it is below it when starting), misses it by 1-2 pips and then reverses for 20 pips. After the 15M bar closes, the wick would have obviously "touched" the EMA but this did not happen in real time. I am sure you've seen this.
Well, the EMA formula in essence says that if price closes (MAperiod+1)/2 pips away from the EMA, then the EMA moves in the direction of the price by 1 pip. For the 10EMA, this number is 5.5 pips. So let's take an example:
A 15M candle opens 33 pips below the EMA10 in a downtrend. If this candle closes at this same opening price, then the EMA10 will move 6 pips down in the next bar. If however the candle moves up from the open 27.5 pips - towards the EMA, the EMA would only appear to move down by 1 pip. So the wick would still be 4.5 pips below the EMA at that point in time - no touch. But if then the price moves - within the same candle - back down to its opening price (33 pips below the EMA10), then the EMA10 would move 6 pips down and it would appear as a clear "touch" to anyone watching the chart. Magnificent trade by the rules, done for the day, etc., alas, you would have missed it if you waited for the real touch.
Therefore, the implication is this: if you are looking for a touch trade, based on other confluence always as the manual suggests, then you can simply place a Pending limit order a few (4-5) pips below the previous EMA price and increase your stop accordingly (manual says 11 pips above EMA), avoiding the missing of an "almost touch" as in the example above. Again, this applies IF the rest of the analysis suggests that a touch trade would be a good opportunity. Otherwise, it's not a good trade anyway
.BTW, I am actually applying this and it takes some of the stress away when waiting for a touch trade.
Opposite applies to an uptrend (e.g. watching the EURJPY right now to add to my constrainment trade from the morning). Same things apply in any timeframe (formula for 10EMA does not change). For the EMA50, a difference of 25.5 pips would make a 1 pip move, and so on.
SMA touches do not work like this, because the SMA changes a lot less with each candle (at times when there is a short term reversal of price). SMA touches can be taken exactly at the touch (when you see it happen).
I hope I am not confusing things too much. Again, a math teacher would probably be able to write it up better than this, but I hope it is clear.
Cheers, Christos
- #2,987
- Dec 1, 2010 4:47am Dec 1, 2010 4:47am
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: I know that I know nothing | 2,780 Posts
Christo,
Nice analysis here. I was actually always considering if there is a way (graphical or arithmetical) to display the "closeness" of the current bar to the MA. For example, if we could have a number telling us that if the current bar closes +5pips above current price then there is a touch at the close, it could help us pick up some of these "after-the-close-touches". In any case, Clay in the manual suggests to only take the real touches, but I have used the M5 price action to get into M15 10EMA touch trades before an actual touch (most...
Correct,
I would also like to add that for the EMA10 I usually "mentally consider" the projection of let's say the same previous angle.
I think that being Forex Market the result of an unbelieveble number of variables concerning thousands of different people, thinking different it may not be always EXACTLY an "at the pip" Science.
We are talking about an "edge" in terms of probabilities higher than 50%.
We cannot say that it will be 73,237 %, no way.
I sometimes prefer for that reason to "sacrify" 3 or 4 pips entering a bit too early, if I think the rest of the situation suggests entering a Touch.
The strategy of the pending orders may be correct to take stress away, I agree, but on the other side a suddendly strong one candel move up to the EMA (just as example) could also mean that the price will break through the EMA10, while the pending order has already been triggered into a loss.
Or I have too less time to cancel it, while that green rocket is targeting my order too fast...
The name of the Strategy is in my opinion very nice also for this reason: "The Dance"
Ever noticed the difference between a dancer following the exact steps read on the book (and clearly showing that by dancing) and a Dancer who has the steps deep in his soul and is expressing himself by Dancing ?
I may be totally wrong and just a newbie, but I somehow "feel" that Forex Trading is waaay over just the "rules" of the Strategy.
BTW: just took this "not at the pip" bounce 35/50 while writing. +30 is ok for me for today. 2 Trades. I like this.
There would be a Touch EMA10 downwards now for a nice "close and reverse", but not for me today.
...The name of the Strategy is in my opinion very nice also for this reason: "The Dance"
Ever noticed the difference between a dancer following the exact steps read on the book (and clearly showing that by dancing) and a Dancer who has the steps deep in his soul and is expressing himself by Dancing ?
I may be totally wrong and just a newbie, but I somehow "feel" that Forex Trading is waaay over just the "rules" of the Strategy.
I know that is theoretical, but there are some practical differences pretty noticeable:
1. About 30% of my trades before were buying at tops and selling at bottoms
. Now this is down to 5-10%. 2. In about 30% of my trades before, price reached my stoploss, took me out for 1-3 pips and reversed
. Now I don't remember anymore when was the last time I had this happening. Conclusion: Following the Dance and applying the ideas made me a better trader as now I am more "in sync" with the market. As simple as that.
In short, I use the concepts found here as entries, and manage trades as I see fit. Thinking about where to cover when I am 30-100 pips in profit is a very nice problem. Sometimes I close early, sometimes I leave it. Right now my EURJPY long from 108.738 (constrainment above 10EMA-15M at 6:30 GMT) is 105 pips up. My stop is BE+32 and I have no plans to cover for the moment.
Cheers,
Christos
- #2,991
- Dec 1, 2010 7:04am Dec 1, 2010 7:04am
The H1 10EMA varies from the M15 40EMA, quite a bit more than I expected....
) thought I would throw an indicator together to show this situation.If you want to take a look, place it first on a blank chart so that other indicators don't confuse what you are seeing
It will show the following -
Green line = M15 50EMA
White line = M15 35EMA
Orange line = H1 10EMA
Vertical pink bars when Green and White are less than 3pip apart at the same time as Green and White are more than 15pips apart
Note. You can put this on any timeframe but obviously if greater than M15 then it won't be as accurate as the M15 MA's will only be reading values once per chart period (ie on an M30 chart you will only see every other M15 value)
Also, the Orange H1 10EMA will show historically as being 'stepped' because there is no way (I know of) to determine its position at 15,30,45 minutes past the hour so at these times it will actually be comparing the M15 MA's against the final hourly position of the H1 MA. I hope that makes sense
PS. If someone could tell me how to determine the real position of an H1 10EMA on an M15 chart, I could write a 'better MA' which could show any MA on any chart eg an H1 10EMA on an M15 chart.
PPS. In case your wondering, the name comes from 'Confluence Variation' ... best I could come up with
- #2,992
- Dec 1, 2010 7:21am Dec 1, 2010 7:21am
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: I know that I know nothing | 2,780 Posts
Hay guys. I had your query pointed out to me by a friend and (especially as several of you are using my PipTracker
If you want to take a look, place it first on a blank chart so that other indicators don't confuse what you are seeing
It will show the following -
Green line = M15 50EMA
White line = M15 35EMA
Orange line = H1 10EMA
Vertical pink bars when Green and White are less than 3pip apart at the same time as Green and White are more than 15pips apart
Note. You can...
Actually, I first introduced your Piptracker in this thread and I am glad I can now officially thank you.
We will check your new creation and let you know. Thanks for the contribution.
Kostas
- #2,997
- Dec 1, 2010 8:31am Dec 1, 2010 8:31am
I hate it when I have to open the MT4 manual. I've always been good at Pseudocode but never a real programmer. Although I learnt Python last year because I wanted to run my own statistical price tests. Anyway...
On a 15M chart:
[font=Courier New]if(TimeMinute(Time[0]))==0...
I appreciate your time to explain in more detail and I fully understand what you are saying, however ...
This will work only for 'right now' and not for historical candles.
Obtaining the current value for H1 10EMA is simply a matter of calling 'iMA( Symbol(), PERIOD_H1, 10, 0, MODE_EMA, PRICE_CLOSE, 0 )' which is fine, but what I am trying to determine is what was that value at 9:30am on September 16th (knowing that MT4 will only return the values as at 9am and 10am)
Right. I get the confussion now
I appreciate your time to explain in more detail and I fully understand what you are saying, however ...
This will work only for 'right now' and not for historical candles.
Obtaining the current value for H1 10EMA is simply a matter of calling 'iMA( Symbol(), PERIOD_H1, 10, 0, MODE_EMA, PRICE_CLOSE, 0 )' which is fine, but what I am trying to determine is what was that value at 9:30am on September 16th (knowing that MT4 will only return the values as at 9am and 10am)
But maybe I am saying BS again, if so, please never mind my ignorance. If it is of any help, I am glad to have posted it.
Cheers,
Christos.
- #3,000
- Dec 1, 2010 10:06am Dec 1, 2010 10:06am
Hay guys. I had your query pointed out to me by a friend and (especially as several of you are using my PipTracker
If you want to take a look, place it first on a blank chart so that other indicators don't confuse what you are seeing
It will show the following -
Green line = M15 50EMA
White line = M15 35EMA
Orange line = H1 10EMA
Vertical pink bars when Green and White are less than 3pip apart at the same time as Green and White are more than 15pips apart
Note....