CHOROS System | Page 149 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

CHOROS Interactive 2,625 replies

Money management for CHOROS and other strategies 2 replies

I want to pay off my mortgage asap with Choros 181 replies

3-9% a day with CHOROS? 63 replies

Would you trade this system? New system #2. 10 replies

Attachments: CHOROS System
Exit Attachments

CHOROS System

  • #2,961
  • Nov 29, 2010 10:52pm Nov 29, 2010 10:52pm
Quoting Survivor
This is why i always take the first touch when 35/50 is converging/ parallel and 10 EMA is steep enough. Bar counting isn't going to help here.
This trade also shows the value of patient in trading. Anyone watching this move would have gone impatitient and eager to jump. Thats what makes people take bad trade. You just can't catch every move. What makes things worse is when others are actually piping that move.( Even i had posted a trade where i sold right at peak). That makes newbies impatient and take bad trade.

What has immensly helped me is now instead of getting impatient, when a see a big move that i am missing, i cheer up. How i see it is this- wow such a huge move! first touch is surely going to be soooo yummy. Move dear move more so i can enter for huge profit at 10 EMA!! the more and faster it moves more i love it. Instead of seeing that i am missing a move i see possiblity of huge pips. That perspective change has helped a lot.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #2,962
  • Nov 30, 2010 2:10am Nov 30, 2010 2:10am
Possible touch of Higher time frame on Cable..

H1 35 SMA
H4 10 EMA
Daily Pivot

above price now...

will wait for price to test these 3 levels before going short on Cable

dont like the fact that 15,35 and 50 MAs on M15 chart looks bunched up at the moment..
it's Month end.. so gotta be more than choosy today, need to be extreme fussy about the setups..
Attached Image
  • #2,963
  • Nov 30, 2010 3:21am Nov 30, 2010 3:21am
Quoting Survivor
This trade also shows the value of patient in trading. Anyone watching this move would have gone impatitient and eager to jump. Thats what makes people take bad trade. You just can't catch every move. What makes things worse is when others are actually piping that move.( Even i had posted a trade where i sold right at peak). That makes newbies impatient and take bad trade.

What has immensly helped me is now instead of getting impatient, when a see a big move that i am missing, i cheer up. How i see it is this- wow such a huge move! first touch...

Great Words, Survivor.

Absolutely agree with you.

Patience, discipline, truly accept the risk you are willing to expose yourself to for finding out if the trades work or not.
See what the market wants to show us, not what we want it to show us.


Well, in such days it seems more difficult to NOT achieve a daily target
even with not perfect trades by the rules...

Big move down, waiting for the first touch of the steep EMA10, but this time on M5.
Confluence with a previous S/R level of M15 (and H4).

Bingo.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 110 KB
  • #2,964
  • Edited 4:26am Nov 30, 2010 4:01am | Edited 4:26am
Touch of 10 EMA on M15 for Cable..
Short at 1.5534, a bit late for the touch trade..

Status: out half at +15, Moved stop to BE for remaining half of trade.
going to slowing grind out some profits, at +20 now so some breathing spaceeee

Status: Stopped out on 2nd half, touch of 10 EMA again.. should i short again? hmmm
Attached Images
  • #2,965
  • Nov 30, 2010 4:07am Nov 30, 2010 4:07am
Quoting willkohsg
Touch of 10 EMA on M15 for Cable..
Short at 1.5534, a bit late for the touch trade..
Exactly short at the same entry..get out with +20 (daily target)...
  • #2,966
  • Nov 30, 2010 4:10am Nov 30, 2010 4:10am
Quoting Fxprince12
Exactly short at the same entry..get out with +20 (daily target)...
nice one!
  • #2,967
  • Nov 30, 2010 5:34am Nov 30, 2010 5:34am
Entered on the touch of 35 and 50 MA

Confluence of 35 and 50 MA on M15
H1 10 EMA
RN 1.5550

Short at 2 places.
1.5534 =+0 pips
1.5541 =+7pips

Out at 1.5534 ( i used the close all positions script)


on hindsight,
took profits a bit too early
now it's 1.5519..

well i was already overtrading ( since hit my quota for today, any extra is overtrading) so I am lucky to get away with profits..
Attached Image
  • #2,968
  • Nov 30, 2010 10:59am Nov 30, 2010 10:59am
Quoting willkohsg
Confluence of 35 and 50 MA on M15
H1 10 EMA
Many times I've seen someone report a confluence of the 35 and 50MA on M15 and the 10EMA on H1. Here's my question? Can anyone show a chart where the 35 and 50 are in confluence and the 10 is separated from them? I think I might be able to invent one, but does it ever actually happen?
  • #2,969
  • Nov 30, 2010 8:43pm Nov 30, 2010 8:43pm
Quoting duffypratt
Many times I've seen someone report a confluence of the 35 and 50MA on M15 and the 10EMA on H1. Here's my question? Can anyone show a chart where the 35 and 50 are in confluence and the 10 is separated from them? I think I might be able to invent one, but does it ever actually happen?
Hi Duffy,
i dont think H1 10 EMA will ever be seperated cos its essentially the 40 EMA on M15 chart,
which might be stacked between the 35 SMA and 50 EMA on M15 chart.

the focus when people declare that confluence is that the 3 Moving averages are stacked narrowly and parallel with each other, aligned with the direction that price is heading..

if we spot these setups, we might conclude that price will have a higher chance to bounce off these levels

compared to what you might say?
well since we know these 3 Moving Averages will be near each other,
compare to if they're seperated and wide apart, if price cuts through them,
it will most likely be a change in direction of that pair instead of a strong bounce..

just my 2 cents.. my own interpretation..
pls feel free to discuss..
love to bounce thoughts off each other
  • #2,970
  • Nov 30, 2010 9:39pm Nov 30, 2010 9:39pm
Quoting willkohsg
Hi Duffy,
i dont think H1 10 EMA will ever be seperated cos its essentially the 40 EMA on M15 chart,
which might be stacked between the 35 SMA and 50 EMA on M15 chart.

the focus when people declare that confluence is that the 3 Moving averages are stacked narrowly and parallel with each other, aligned with the direction that price is heading..

if we spot these setups, we might conclude that price will have a higher chance to bounce off these levels

compared to what you might say?
well since we know these 3 Moving Averages will be...
The H1 10EMA varies from the M15 40EMA, quite a bit more than I expected. I'm sure this has something to do with the nature of the exponential weighting. I saw them vary by as many as 19 pips in a quick comparison that I just did. With sharp turns, they tend to vary by 10-15 pips with some regularity. That's not that much, but people do tend to assume that you can simply multiply time periods to get the same MAs on smaller charts. And with this system, its quite often the difference between getting stopped out or not.

With simple MAs, multiplying gives closer results, but they still tend to vary by a couple of pips. That comes from the "noise" of peaks and valleys in the intermediate bars on the smaller charts.

I also checked the 50EMA vs. the 40EMA. Not much surprise there: they are basically always parallel and close to each other. It would be completely pointless to have both of them on a chart at once.

If we have a math genius on the forum, perhaps we could come up with a situation, or a group of situations where the 10EMA on the H1 varies from a confluence of the 35SMA and 50EMA on the M15. The problem is pretty easy to state but beyond my ability to solve:

1) Define 50 variables, one for the close of each of 50, 15 minute candles: C1 through C50.

2) EMA(C1, ... C50) = SMA (C16, ... C50) This condition describes a perfect intersection of the MAs.

3) EMA (C16, C20, C24, C28, C32, C36, C38, C42, C46, C50) - EMA(C1, ... C50) > 15 This means that the difference between the EMAs is bigger than our stop loss, which I think is enough to invalidate confluence.

Anyone care to solve this, and then maybe show us a chart of what this situation might look like?
  • #2,971
  • Dec 1, 2010 12:04am Dec 1, 2010 12:04am
Quoting duffypratt
If we have a math genius on the forum, perhaps we could come up with a situation, or a group of situations where the 10EMA on the H1 varies from a confluence of the 35SMA and 50EMA on the M15. The problem is pretty easy to state but beyond my ability to solve:
.....
Anyone care to solve this, and then maybe show us a chart of what this situation might look like?









P.S. Just run the simulator and see how the MAs intertwine & interact with each other....
  • #2,972
  • Dec 1, 2010 12:17am Dec 1, 2010 12:17am
Quoting duffypratt

With simple MAs, multiplying gives closer results, but they still tend to vary by a couple of pips. That comes from the "noise" of peaks and valleys in the intermediate bars on the smaller charts.
Some intresting discussion here. I find they are always togather for all practical pupose. However, i dont think its easy to dismiss them as confluence. The whole idea of confluence is more and more people are likely to notice that level. To me both 15M and 1H chart watchers will be watching that level - and that makes the trade stronger to that extent. Yet if they are always togather, we are talking about a single group that walays watches that level. Scenario would ve very different if, say, 62 1hEMA confluences there. Then we will have another entirely new group of traders watching that level.

Anyway, yesterday was bad for me trying to trade EU. Found many fake outs. for example- The first 10EMA touch and then constrainment and then false close above 10 EMA. Finally a down move! That got me frustrated.

But yes, i gained something- I did some objective analysis and found value of following those STOP rules in manual. I observed a vicious cycle of losses running like this-

1. Losing trade> leads to Fears> Leads to more losses >More fear

2. Winning trade> leads to over confidence> Go to 1.

Thats why we must relax and rethink carefully after EVRY trade. Especially after a losing trade.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #2,973
  • Dec 1, 2010 1:39am Dec 1, 2010 1:39am
Quoting kostas1




P.S. Just run the simulator and see how the MAs intertwine & interact with each other....
The sillycon sums it up pretty well.

My main point is that there are certain confluences that will always happen, simply because of the time relationship of the charts. Just like this one, there will also always be a confluence between the 35/50 on the H1 and the 10 on the H4. Survivor says that these confluences are stronger, because more people are looking at them. Maybe so.

I wonder if there is any way to figure out which MAs are the ones that people use most? And does it matter how the MA is used? As the basis for a Bollinger Band, or for one of the Stochastic lines? Here's why I ask. Suppose you get something happening at the H4 5EMA. That would likely be a confluence with the H1 20. But we don't happen to look at the 20, so there's no confluence noted. I don't know if there should be or not, but I'm willing to bet that many people use it. I have a friend who trades a successful system that relies mainly on the 20 and the 100.

As for the simulator, that's very good advice, and I need to do more of it.
  • #2,974
  • Dec 1, 2010 2:26am Dec 1, 2010 2:26am
Quoting duffypratt

Anyone care to solve this, and then maybe show us a chart of what this situation might look like?
Hi Duffy,

I am not a math genius. However, I loaded about 7000 15M bars of GBPUSD in an Excel, and calculated the SMA35(15M), EMA50(15M) and the 10EMA(1H). Let's define the case you are looking for:

The SMA35(15M) and the EMA50(15M) are within 3 pips of each other (confluence) AND the 10EMA(1H) is more than 15 pips away from EMA50(15M).

It turned out that this occurs 1-3 times per month, but in all of these cases, it is always after a big move (more than 150 pips within a few hours) and just when consolidation starts (the move stops and reverses even slightly) this case described above appears. Last 3 appearances are on November 16, 17:45 GMT, October 26 11:15 GMT and October 19 13:15 GMT. You can backtrack your charts and see these.

The bottom line is that: In such cases there is no chance that you will have a 50EMA touch trade on the M15, as it has to be very far from the price to create such a scenario. If I was a math genius, I could possibly provide mathematical proof, but this simple test should be enough to drive the point home.

Further, just for information, the formula for EMA calculation (at least the way it works in MT4, there are alternative methods) is:
(2/(MAperiod+1))*CurrentClose+((MAperiod-1)/(MAperiod+1)*PreviouscandleEMAvalue.

Therefore, the EMA essentially contains ALL the bars in the chart, but only uses the latest bar for each iteration. This has some other interesting implications for the Dance trades, but I would leave it for some other time.

Hope this helps.

Christos
  • #2,975
  • Dec 1, 2010 3:05am Dec 1, 2010 3:05am
Hello, dancers,

i think, there are 2 universal emas: ema20 - used on charts starting from 30min and higher, and ema50 - used on charts starting from 5min.
If you compare them between timeframes, you wil see that ema20[30] is around equal to ema10[1H] often referenced here, ema200[15] is equal to ema50[H].
There is also ema30[5min], witch is the same as ema10[15] or ema5[30].
As about simple ma like s35, many use it as SR level and confirmation, but i don't really understand its purpose.
  • #2,976
  • Dec 1, 2010 3:05am Dec 1, 2010 3:05am
Both Cable and Euro doing their thing without me, moving up, looking for a bounce off 10 EMA to go long on this 2 pairs.

Will be trading till 15th Dec, and then take a break and rest my mind from watching charts all day
Attached Image
  • #2,977
  • Dec 1, 2010 3:09am Dec 1, 2010 3:09am
Quoting 3phase
Therefore, the EMA essentially contains ALL the bars in the chart, but only uses the latest bar for each iteration. This has some other interesting implications for the Dance trades, but I would leave it for some other time.

Hope this helps.

Christos
Hi Christos, what does your statement imply for the Dance trades ?
I am curious to know

Regards,
willkohsg
  • #2,978
  • Dec 1, 2010 3:32am Dec 1, 2010 3:32am
Took Cable at touch of 35 and 50 MA off the M15 chart.

Long at 1.5577
Out at 1.5609
+32 in 1 trade. done for the day
Attached Image
  • #2,979
  • Dec 1, 2010 3:35am Dec 1, 2010 3:35am
Quoting duffypratt
The H1 10EMA varies from the M15 40EMA, quite a bit more than I expected. I'm sure this has something to do with the nature of the exponential weighting. I saw them vary by as many as 19 pips in a quick comparison that I just did. With sharp turns, they tend to vary by 10-15 pips with some regularity. That's not that much, but people do tend to assume that you can simply multiply time periods to get the same MAs on smaller charts. And with this system, its quite often the difference between getting stopped out or not.
That's reason nr 1 why I do not use the MTF MA on the charts.
I also noticed that not always they exactly repeat the same value of the "original" EMA on the original Chart.
The explanation that it is due to the EMA calculation is a good point to think about.

Anyway reason nr 2 is that it is worth to also have a look at the P/A on all the TF, which is not too easy on only one (possible, but requires some more experience)

Anyway I agree with Survivor when he speaks about the consequences of winning and losing on the next trades, so (even absolutely appreciating the discussion about the EMA10 on H1 in relation to the MA35/50 on M15 and the purposes of the matter issued) I say to myself, perhaps "too easily" (?) :

Given that the Strategy appears to be a very good edge, including the Confluence, I will invest more time and efforts in "training" the other parts of the Trading Body (M/M, Discipline, Patience) than investigating why and how the Confluences work (again, even being an absolutely interesting point)....

Wrong ?
  • #2,980
  • Dec 1, 2010 3:36am Dec 1, 2010 3:36am
Quoting willkohsg
Took Cable at touch of 35 and 50 MA off the M15 chart.

Long at 1.5577
Out at 1.5609
+32 in 1 trade. done for the day

Took the same !
(as usual)

But closed at +18 !!! Should have been waaaitiiing a bit mooore !!

Well done Willkohsg!
8 traders viewing now