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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #21,741
  • Nov 29, 2010 6:29pm Nov 29, 2010 6:29pm
Greetings all.....I had a long weekend so now it's time to post something that may (or may not) be of use!

On the Daily chart we are just holding on by our fingernails abover the 100 sma, which is at about 83.90. Also, the DP today is at 84.15, so assuming the pa can stay above these levels, particularly the 100 sma, this climb might continue.

The retrace area on the H1 (the MT4 chart) is at about 84.00, so I think it's looking good to keep this climb going.....even if it s at a slow pace, such is life with this pair.
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,742
  • Nov 29, 2010 7:06pm Nov 29, 2010 7:06pm
Quoting georgem
Next in Line is Portugal... lets wait and see it something new is done to stop the domino effect... We might even see a pro EUR move from russia or china...lol

just wait and see... next weeks will be very interesting!
I don't see how EURUSD at parity can help PIGGS and investors in this situation. I think that investors are mad at Germany( Angela Merkel) for intention to transfer consequences to them instead only to tax payers...
Not long ago China said that support EUR...? All participants are looking to take advantage of current situation and will be left to the market to make corrections ...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #21,743
  • Nov 29, 2010 8:55pm Nov 29, 2010 8:55pm
mima, georgem, realjumper and fosking...keep it up to post ur good view overhere...i need to take some rest ...but will still visit once a while later

take care guys...cheers

g
  • #21,744
  • Nov 29, 2010 9:58pm Nov 29, 2010 9:58pm
Quoting grashid
mima, georgem, realjumper and fosking...keep it up to post ur good view overhere...i need to take some rest ...but will still visit once a while later

take care guys...cheers

g
Enjoy your rest man.....look forward to seeing you back when you're ready

The red trendline is holding still.....and the PA is hovering around the DP. Nothing else to say for now, the Asian session has been.....well.....the Asian session!!

Back for London
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,745
  • Nov 30, 2010 12:03am Nov 30, 2010 12:03am
Quoting grashid
time for some retracement ...and UJ should follow as well....then continue our journey after NFP...

good luck guys

g
hello, pro,are you still holding your long position??? cheers .
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #21,746
  • Nov 30, 2010 12:46am Nov 30, 2010 12:46am
Quoting realjumper
The red trendline is holding still.....and the PA is hovering around the DP. Nothing else to say for now, the Asian session has been.....well.....the Asian session!!

Back for London
The trendline didn't hold. The lower red trendline is stronger and less steep, so I would expect that to hold.....assuming we go down there. In order to get there, we have to get through S1 at 83.90, and the round number 84.00 first. Frankie is online shortly, so anything is possible!
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,747
  • Nov 30, 2010 1:33am Nov 30, 2010 1:33am
Quoting grashid
mima, georgem, realjumper and fosking...keep it up to post ur good view overhere...i need to take some rest ...but will still visit once a while later

take care guys...cheers

g
Thank you for your kind words!
I hope you enjoy you rest and see you back here soon!
  • #21,748
  • Nov 30, 2010 2:47am Nov 30, 2010 2:47am
Morning Traders!

Since getting out of my long last week I've not had any positions on this pair, but heres what I'm looking at.

Yen futures have retraced back up to a congested S&R area and may be capped around this area.
On the USD/JPY chart I'm looking for a bounce off the ascending trend line. Although a break of this may be held up by the weekly pivot and even lower I would be looking to get in at around 83.00.

Yen Futures Index H4
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USD/JPY H1
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  • #21,749
  • Nov 30, 2010 3:23am Nov 30, 2010 3:23am
Quoting fosking
Morning Traders!

Since getting out of my long last week I've not had any positions on this pair, but heres what I'm looking at.

Yen futures have retraced back up to a congested S&R area and may be capped around this area.
On the USD/JPY chart I'm looking for a bounce off the ascending trend line. Although a break of this may be held up by the weekly pivot and even lower I would be looking to get in at around 83.00.
I'm looking for bounce there too, although I'm not entirely sure that it will get there. If not, I'll need to see a break of the recent high before adding another

Thanks for posting the Yen futures chart, I don't have access to that one
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,750
  • Nov 30, 2010 4:35am Nov 30, 2010 4:35am
Quoting realjumper
I'm looking for bounce there too, although I'm not entirely sure that it will get there. If not, I'll need to see a break of the recent high before adding another

Thanks for posting the Yen futures chart, I don't have access to that one
Well it certainly sorted me out didn't it?!

Not sure if it will close under the trendline, if it does, I'll have to rethink my plan!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,751
  • Nov 30, 2010 4:58am Nov 30, 2010 4:58am
is it coming?
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The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #21,752
  • Nov 30, 2010 9:31am Nov 30, 2010 9:31am
Quoting georgem
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXosjqvMtlo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fyq7WRr_GPg

I certainly hope that EUR survives for some years more. But its Illness might very well be terminal.

But I also like the idea for the old currencies to return.
Really, I miss DeutschMark and GreekDrachmae...
Thanks for the 1st (German based) video of Nigel - hadn't seen that one. I'm a huge fan of Nigel - he's too sane & realistic for popular consumption. A former commodity trader too, if I'm not mistaken.

The euro problems are like never before, being driven by ridiculous debt levels. Would not surprise me to see their own money printing, er QE, to be put on the table in a fit of self-survival which 1) will result in what money printing always brings 2) much more quickly than anyone would expect.
  • #21,753
  • Nov 30, 2010 1:32pm Nov 30, 2010 1:32pm
Quoting Beljevina
Thanks for the 1st (German based) video of Nigel - hadn't seen that one. I'm a huge fan of Nigel - he's too sane & realistic for popular consumption. A former commodity trader too, if I'm not mistaken.
Yep, he's cool. Although I dont agree with what he says in this video about climate change and "wind turbines are ugly".... lol, common...
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,754
  • Nov 30, 2010 4:17pm Nov 30, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting realjumper
Well it certainly sorted me out didn't it?!

Not sure if it will close under the trendline, if it does, I'll have to rethink my plan!
Ok, the lower trendline didn't hold either....so much for that. This is the H4 chart but the red trendline is the same as on the H1 posted yesterday.

The yellow line is at a more moderate angle and only time will tell if it holds or not.

Meantime, I'm not adding any further longs until I see positive signs that the bear run is over.
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,755
  • Nov 30, 2010 11:56pm Nov 30, 2010 11:56pm
This run south is ignoring trendlines and pivots.....but.....the 23.6 fib is holding up any further decline, at the moment. This area also held up the bulls for a few days in mid November, so it's acting as support for the moment. To be honest I don't much fancy it's chances of holding this for long, but time will tell. I'm certainly not prepared to enter either way just yet.
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,756
  • Dec 1, 2010 3:00am Dec 1, 2010 3:00am
Quoting realjumper
This run south is ignoring trendlines and pivots.....but.....the 23.6 fib is holding up any further decline, at the moment. This area also held up the bulls for a few days in mid November, so it's acting as support for the moment. To be honest I don't much fancy it's chances of holding this for long, but time will tell. I'm certainly not prepared to enter either way just yet.
Well, the 23.6 fib held, and we are now about 38 pips higher. 38 isn't much, generally speaking, but it is for this pair.

I was just talking to another trader and I had to admit that I have been neglecting fibs quite badly lately....not only on this pair, but also on other pairs that I trade. I have been content to rely on pivots and trendlines and I have kind of ignored fibs completely.....and with hindsight, it has cost me a couple of nice trades.

Fibs are easy to draw and they work well. I was silly to forget about them.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,757
  • Dec 1, 2010 3:09am Dec 1, 2010 3:09am
trade idea - H4
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  • #21,758
  • Dec 1, 2010 5:41am Dec 1, 2010 5:41am
Quoting z3r0
trade idea - H4
I'm also thinking this will happen, in 1u30min we have a High news report maybe in favor for the USD, so it could hit 84
  • #21,759
  • Dec 1, 2010 7:09am Dec 1, 2010 7:09am
current high is of 84.14 - keep in mind the september monthly open at 84.18 that coincides with the 78.6 fib level
  • #21,760
  • Dec 1, 2010 11:02am Dec 1, 2010 11:02am
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