EURUSD

No problem my friend, i do not claim that i am the originator of that thought, the article is already over 2 months old, its just the first time i saw a paper talking about it. Also, i wanted to take this opportunity to clarify that by the City of London i do NOT mean London or even Great Britain. I mean the CITY of London, for those who are not familiar with it.

Only posting here briefly, been away on other business as of late. But i'm going to comment a bit on the euro crisis. Some say the euro is fundamentally flawed. Others say the euro is about to break up. Some say the germans will get angry for having to pay bailouts. I believe it is all a very clever strategy of QE, I'd call it qualitative easing, so to speak, designed to benefit european exporters and manufacturers and also the banking sector, also a weapon to fight in the currency war. Don't you notice how strangely it comes just in time to greet Bernanke's QE, this second wave of anti-euro speculation? The power of the euro is that it is like a coin, with the face being Germany and the back being the PIGS. Whenever the german export industry needs a boost, the anti-euro campaign is being pulled on some country with lacking budget discipline. They flip the coin PIGS side up. The propaganda machine is cranked up, some dramatic headlines like "Euro is diein, omg no!!!" start coming up, german banks short some euros, and there we go, say for example if we go, like with Greece, from 1.38 to about 1.18 we get a 15% drop vs the USD and a drop against other currencies as well. Then what happens with german, and other countries in the EZ or pegged to the euro export revenue to outside EU countries? No points for guessing it goes up the same % the eu drops vs each currency.In my country which is euro-pegged exports rose close to 40% y/y so far, and are up 10% compared to before the global crisis. Still you would say, what is the purpose of it all if the buying power of the euro is undermined? Well it isn't! That's why the ECB is so fixated with inflation, because keeping(very successfuly so far, as JC says often) inflation in check is a way to make sure this game works. So in short it goes like this.
1. Currency war, Bernanke does QE, Export led EU economy slowdown.
2. The EU pulls a Greece, flips the coin and starts the QE.
3. The process takes some time as there are always "negotiations".
4. The market conveniently drops the euro lower, EU banks cash their short bets, exporters cash. Export oriented countries experience a QE effect, without the danger of inflation.
5. The EU countries take some money and throw it at the troubled state.
6. Investment flows out of the export oriented countries, back to EZ periphery, and EU non-EZ members, fueling bubbles and keeping population satisfied. Consumption increases, and so does GDP. The market is "relieved" and the euro "recharges" it's price.
Whenever necessary the process is repeated. Looks like an excellent mechanism to me.

I'd be betting 1.18 if I were trading now, but I think you're generally very right about the direction. The idea I think is to be formed a double bottom with the Greek lows.

they lost me when they said the banks are fine (stress test). and yet here we are.

i lied i never did believe.

my broke ass brother-in-law co-signing a loan for my other broke ass brother-in-law. leads me to believe there are some dumb ass people loaning money still. neither broke ass brother-in-law is gonna pay anyone back with his get rich quick scheme.

substitute "broke ass brother-in-law for the country or bank of your choosing. they are all interchangeable.

Good luck to all trading, I promise I'll be back after a while. You know there are no former junkies, poker players and .... traders

Hi there

where are you getting the current live rates from as non of my live nor demo platforms seem to have resumed trading as yet...looking forward to your reply

thanks in advance...

Regards

Ali Raza

I know, madness, utter madness.

EU is giving us a bit of a bounce, now at 3295

EUR/USD now at 1.3301

interesting situation..

Can all those posting live prices please refrain from doing so, we don't want to dishearten the thousands of members here who depend on their gaps for Sunday trading.

Giving real market feeds here will disillusion the majority of posters and reduce the mass hysteria so often seen and enjoyed here this time of the week. This is the only reason I show up this time of night, and I would be forced to watch silly TV now for my daily dose of entertainment.

esignal 200 source gtis feed

current high 1.3310

The big question is if the purpose of the Irish saga is to just counter US QE, or even gain on it. Also a variable is just how strong is the underlying impact of Bernanke's new wave of printing, as it's probably very well calculated. Depending on all this there are 2 scenarions
1. Double bottom at about 1.18-ish
2. Continuation upwards toward 1.50.

Where are you guys getting these prices from?

My Charts aren't moving, I assume they will begin when the Aussies open up in 2.5 hrs.

3303, oops.

it is very wierd how some peple dont see gaps...i saw one last sunday..and it close about 7 hours after during london session

1,3310 tested .. most liekly see thos high vol pivot 1,3350 area. Then take it from there

Attachment

http://www.quote.com/global/forex/ch...tUi.minutes=15

hope it helps

Hey guys, on my way back from a match, tired as hell but super keen for Ty session tonight

Cloggs, seeing as I'm not at my pc, mind sharing the aud usd price? Don't mean to turn you into a commentator but have longer term (350 pips) short on and am anxious to know Wassup!

Thanks for the wiki leaks info, loving it!!!

i am wondering how can the price change in close market? i am waiting for sydney open

Last Week also started with a 100+ pips rise... We could see a bigger bounce now or then, that´s why you should buckle your safety belt in this descends, but one things is clear to me is that at some point We should see the bear in its top shape along with panic and ES dropping hard and Headlines about the euro on mainstream media.

Only then, and maybe, the EU could rise.

BTW, Masrim, I have been suspicious of whether this is what the German and French Game plan has been.

But I am not 100% sure they would risk this kind of contagion, and german and French Bank collapse to lower the EUR.... but who knows, its a very interesting idea and could very well be the plan...

When I see this, I just think this is the modern version of the Gold Standard, when the only "logical" way to fix imbalances is through brutal austerity when the economies are already on their knees. The Sr. Bondholders should get slaughtered instead of the Irish Grannies, but thems the breaks of capitalism I suppose.