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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #21,721
  • Nov 26, 2010 3:39am Nov 26, 2010 3:39am
Quoting fosking
USD Index Futures are rising along side the YEN Index Futures falling. A break of 84.00 looks likely today.
Don't know I'm not so sure about that pull back on broken neckline completed:

Attached Image
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #21,722
  • Nov 26, 2010 3:49am Nov 26, 2010 3:49am
Quoting realjumper
All I'm saying is that anyone can come here and say "it's going up soon...just wait". It really means nothing on it's own though. It's just a call.....a coin flip.......meaningless unless you can demonstrate to us why it is that the PA will take off. Usually a chart that you have drawn is the way people demonstrate why it is that they think what they do. Then, as you suggest, it is up to the individual to agree or disagree.

A call on it's own is meaningless and not worth the paper it's written on I'm afraid.
ok ok ok ok ok
  • #21,723
  • Nov 26, 2010 3:53am Nov 26, 2010 3:53am
Quoting grashid
keep on going mate...dun bother much some noise n iggy button is the way to go....simple...
i already said i'm sorry to u right? it means i confess that i was wrong... so now, what else is the problem? no more problem right?... NO MORE PROBLEM RIGHT ?
  • #21,724
  • Nov 26, 2010 3:54am Nov 26, 2010 3:54am
Quoting USD-Bear
Don't know I'm not so sure about that pull back on broken neckline completed:

Attachment
I hope your right! I need to get into this pair before it takes off without me
  • #21,725
  • Nov 26, 2010 4:11am Nov 26, 2010 4:11am
Quoting fosking
I hope your right! I need to get into this pair before it takes off without me
lol, I hope You are right, large (long term) short's in Gold in position atm instead of UJ longs.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #21,726
  • Nov 26, 2010 4:16am Nov 26, 2010 4:16am
Quoting USD-Bear
lol, I hope You are right, large (long term) short's in Gold in position atm instead of UJ longs.....
i stick with your opinion
  • #21,727
  • Nov 26, 2010 4:35pm Nov 26, 2010 4:35pm
Quoting fosking
USD Index Futures are rising along side the YEN Index Futures falling. A break of 84.00 looks likely today.
Evening Traders!

Well we finally pierced the 84.00 level to get to 84.20 but hit resistance at the daily pivot R3.
All week I've been keeping an eye on Gold against the USD/JPY and to watch how the correlation has been playing out. Gold has been climbing an ascending trend line which I have drawn on the chart below.
A break of this trend line would have been a good opportunity, or a least a good reason to be long on USD/JPY. We saw that Gold dropped off and USD/JPY push higher.
Throughout the day Yen futures have been selling off to break lower through a large support area.
On the other side of the trade we can see that USD Futures had a strong day, making sure we broke the 80.00 level convincingly. Adding both of these together we had no choice today but ride USD/JPY higher.
The weekend might get a bit spicy with North Korea and should be good for the the bulls should anything kick off.

Have a good weekend all and eyes on North Korea!

USD/JPY/GOLD M5 (22/11-26/11)
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JPY Index Futures H4
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USD Index Futures H4
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  • #21,728
  • Nov 27, 2010 3:58am Nov 27, 2010 3:58am
Extremely wasted, I sold at 83.6 plus. Now it is 84 plus. What do you think of the trend? Safe to enter and buy again?
  • #21,729
  • Nov 27, 2010 4:55am Nov 27, 2010 4:55am
Quoting beginnerluck
Extremely wasted, I sold at 83.6 plus. Now it is 84 plus. What do you think of the trend? Safe to enter and buy again?
I would say the first thing that has to change is for EUR to find some stability.... EUR weakness is the main reason for USD strenght... and that has a big effect on USD JPY.

Wait for some USD weakness across the board... it will kick in sooner or later.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,730
  • Nov 27, 2010 5:04am Nov 27, 2010 5:04am
Quoting beginnerluck
Extremely wasted, I sold at 83.6 plus. Now it is 84 plus. What do you think of the trend? Safe to enter and buy again?
Unfortunately nobody is able to answer your questions but you.
What is your bias on this pair?
What timeframe do you trade?
Why did you get short?
What is your strategy?
If you are able to answer these questions easily and confidently stick with what you are doing and you will be ok.
It looks like you are unsure so my advice would be to cut the position, rethink, and enter with your strategy on the same way as your bias.
Also, NEVER enter a trade based on somebody else's opinion, that's the fastest way to loose money.
This forum is great to post your analysis and bounce ideas of other traders, sometimes you need that, and luckily this forum has many good traders to listen to and learn from. Post some charts and look for feedback. just don't get sucked in copying trades, you will always loose over the long term.

I know this reply hasn't exactly helped in your answer directly, but if you feel like you fall into the above, you know what you need to do with your trade.
  • #21,731
  • Nov 27, 2010 1:05pm Nov 27, 2010 1:05pm
Quoting georgem
I would say the first thing that has to change is for EUR to find some stability.... EUR weakness is the main reason for USD strenght... and that has a big effect on USD JPY.

Wait for some USD weakness across the board... it will kick in sooner or later.
  • #21,732
  • Nov 27, 2010 3:16pm Nov 27, 2010 3:16pm
Quoting georgem
Wait for some USD weakness across the board... it will kick in sooner or later.
We will see USD weakness once risk is back on the table. The Dow and S&P500 are dropping with the USDX breaking through 80.00, risk is certainly off the table at the moment. Concerns still rippling through Europe with investors now looking at Spain. If Spain goes, I think we can kiss goodbye to the Euro.
Tensions building with the North Korean situation, driving people away from Asia and more importantly Japan which is helping weaken the Yen.
But then again you know what they say, if everyone is trading the same thing, they are probably going to be wrong
  • #21,733
  • Edited 3:52pm Nov 27, 2010 3:41pm | Edited 3:52pm
Quoting fosking
...Concerns still rippling through Europe with investors now looking at Spain. If Spain goes, I think we can kiss goodbye to the Euro.
Next in Line is Portugal... lets wait and see it something new is done to stop the domino effect... We might even see a pro EUR move from russia or china...lol

just wait and see... next weeks will be very interesting!
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,734
  • Nov 27, 2010 3:58pm Nov 27, 2010 3:58pm
Quoting georgem
next weeks will be very interesting!
That's for sure! I'm quite looking forward to it
  • #21,735
  • Nov 27, 2010 3:58pm Nov 27, 2010 3:58pm
Quoting fosking
... If Spain goes, I think we can kiss goodbye to the Euro...
Well, too much money and politics was involved to create Euro...I don't think that EZ will give up on Euro because of PIIGS...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #21,736
  • Nov 27, 2010 4:37pm Nov 27, 2010 4:37pm
Quoting mima
Well, too much money and politics was involved to create Euro...I don't think that EZ will give up on Euro because of PIIGS...
The Spanish seem to be quite confident on their economy at the moment, but the problem is Spain has the 3rd highest budget deficit in the Euro region, and the risk for Europe is that Spain’s economy is twice as big as that of Greece, Ireland and Portugal combined, meaning the euro region’s 750bln Euro bailout fund may not be big enough. Greece said they were fine when they weren't, the same has just happened with Ireland.
Spainish Bond Yields are at an 8 year high thanks to the Ireland bailout. This European crisis is just beginning in my opinion with Portugal being next.
  • #21,737
  • Nov 27, 2010 11:30pm Nov 27, 2010 11:30pm
Quoting fosking
The Spanish...
Well, investors know that after this mess will be new page for them as well...rules for investors will be changed and they are taking advantage now as much as they can...EZ is willing to double the fund to fully cover debt of PIIGS...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #21,738
  • Nov 28, 2010 3:24am Nov 28, 2010 3:24am
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I certainly hope that EUR survives for some years more. But its Illness might very well be terminal.

But I also like the idea for the old currencies to return.
Really, I miss DeutschMark and GreekDrachmae...
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,739
  • Nov 28, 2010 3:40am Nov 28, 2010 3:40am
Quoting mima
EZ is willing to double the fund to fully cover debt of PIIGS...
Be careful, there is no doubling of bail out money. Merkel said Germany are not behind it, and they won't be able to put anything together if Germany are not on board.
  • #21,740
  • Nov 28, 2010 8:54pm Nov 28, 2010 8:54pm
Quoting grashid
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=330899

time for some retracement ...and UJ should follow as well....then continue our journey after NFP...

good luck guys

g
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