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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #21,681
  • Nov 24, 2010 3:27am Nov 24, 2010 3:27am
Quoting dokterriza
i think it's otherwise. my stand on UJ is bearish for this week, but overall my view for the next 6 months is strong bullish. i got very excited yesterday to see weighted risk aversion on UJ which blast risk currencies heavily.Yen is the winner among safe haven. have you seen CHF/JPY? again, it's depending on US Data which will be released tonight, and other factors..

thank you for your opinion USD-Bear, kindly appreciated. at last someone talk to me in this forum gonna take early nap for hours
yw, it's my way of trading I guess, I seldom trade against my longer term view although it often looks/is attractive looking at shorter TF's.
Good luck!
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #21,682
  • Nov 24, 2010 3:29am Nov 24, 2010 3:29am
Quoting realjumper
I can quite understand you standing aside for the day....
This year I promised myself that I would book more profits more regularly. I always fell into a trap (which is completely my own fault) of thinking this will happen or that will happen and not playing what I thought. If it does drop to around 82.00 I will enter long again with previous profits booked and my balance bigger to play with. But what I used to do is think ok, it's going to drop down to 82.00 (and does), then go back up (and does) but I never took the opportunity to take advantage of the move to book profits. To survive in this game you HAVE to take profits, which I have learned since becoming profitable.
Also my real reason is I have a 3 month old son, so have decided to take the wife and him around the christmas market (they are very nice here in Germany) and to just have a day off from sitting in front of the screens all day lol it drives you crazy after a while.
Speak to you guys later in the US session and good pips!
  • #21,683
  • Nov 24, 2010 3:40am Nov 24, 2010 3:40am
Quoting fosking
To survive in this game you HAVE to take profits
Yep, a profit a day keeps the doctor away, or something like that.

Also, profit-taking is key to any compounding plan.

USD JPY? I have no idea... this is for many months now a really terrible pair to watch and trade.... I have shifted my efforts more to EUR/USD, USD/CHF and EUR/CHF...

USD JPY is an endless hedging for me.... betting both ways, and paying the losses of one side with the winnings of the other side... fuck!
I have continuously reduced my exposure in USD JPY and transfered it to other pairs, where I can trade the way I like it.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,684
  • Nov 24, 2010 4:12am Nov 24, 2010 4:12am
Quoting fosking
This year I promised myself that I would book more profits more regularly. I always fell into a trap (which is completely my own fault) of thinking this will happen or that will happen and not playing what I thought. If it does drop to around 82.00 I will enter long again with previous profits booked and my balance bigger to play with. But what I used to do is think ok, it's going to drop down to 82.00 (and does), then go back up (and does) but I never took the opportunity to take advantage of the move to book profits. To survive in this game you...
Yes, booking profits, or at least locking them in is essential, however big or small they may be. My mistake in the past, or at least one of them, was greed, pure and simple. I would be (say) 20 pips in profit and I would not take profit even though the move was finishing. I would say to myself 'I'll take profit at 25'......at 25 I would wait for 30, only to see it go to 20. Then I would say 'nope, go back to 25 and I promise I'll take profit......and it would go to 15. So I'd promise to take profit when it get's back to 20.....and it goes to 10!.....you get the idea!!! I took a while to break that silly habit, but eventually I learned to spot when the move was finishing and take whatever profit was on the table. If it got another burst of energy and took off after I booked the profit, I now smile and think 'yeah but if you had have gone the other way, I'd be the one laughing!' My Dad used to love to say, 'son, look after the cents and the dollars will look after themselves'......he was correct!

My trades on this pair though are for the long term, and I will add longs all the way up, once we get a reliable uptrend happening. Generally speaking I am an intraday trader, but the opportunity of a long term long on this pair is too good to let pass by.

I won't be back for USA session.....that's 2am for me!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,685
  • Nov 24, 2010 4:27am Nov 24, 2010 4:27am
Quoting realjumper
Yes, booking profits, or at least locking them in is essential, however big or small they may be. My mistake in the past, or at least one of them, was greed, pure and simple. I would be (say) 20 pips in profit and I would not take profit even though the move was finishing. I would say to myself 'I'll take profit at 25'......at 25 I would wait for 30, only to see it go to 20. Then I would say 'nope, go back to 25 and I promise I'll take profit......and it would go to 15. So I'd promise to take profit when it get's back to 20.....and it goes to 10!.....you...
lol, it's like hearing talking myself
Now we are at lessons, one simple thing giving me the necessary patience is acknowledging missing a possible trade is not bad, there will be thousands coming....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #21,686
  • Nov 24, 2010 4:32am Nov 24, 2010 4:32am
Quoting USD-Bear
one simple thing giving me the necessary patience is acknowledging missing a possible trade is not bad, there will be thousands coming....
That's the one sure thing in Forex, don't try and force a trade, let it come to you!
  • #21,687
  • Edited 5:03pm Nov 24, 2010 4:43pm | Edited 5:03pm
Evening Traders!

A good solid day for USD/JPY making up yesterdays lost ground.
We are still currently trapped underneath 84.00 and not being able to break through yesterdays high.
Gold has maintained it's strength without being sold off to heavily. A break through the white ascending trend line will help USD/JPY on a leg up through 84.00.
The USD Futures Index is still capped at 80.00 with a break of here pushing USD/JPY higher also. If we are unable to break above 84.00 in the next couple of sessions we can expect a drop down until fresh buyers come in and take us through 84.00. The weekly pivot R1 comes in at 84.00 also so we may see some fresh sellers coming in here as well as profit takers.
Stops will be placed above 84.00 so a break of this should propel us to 85.00 pretty quick with the weekly pivot R2 offering slight resistance.

USD/JPY/GOLD H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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USD Futures H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,688
  • Nov 24, 2010 6:04pm Nov 24, 2010 6:04pm
I'm not a huge follower of these harmonic patterns, but I have to admit that I have seen them work out probably 70% of the time. This bearish gartley therefore, will prevent me from entering long until I see whether this plays out or not.

This is the M30 chart by the way
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpbg.jpg Size: 227 KB
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,689
  • Nov 24, 2010 6:24pm Nov 24, 2010 6:24pm
Does anyone have a link for C.O.T analysis.....other than dailyfx.com?

Cheers
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,690
  • Nov 24, 2010 6:30pm Nov 24, 2010 6:30pm
Quoting realjumper
Does anyone have a link for C.O.T analysis.....other than dailyfx.com?

Cheers

http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/c...f-traders.aspx

http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...tch/sentiment/
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #21,691
  • Nov 24, 2010 6:39pm Nov 24, 2010 6:39pm
Quoting mima
http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/c...f-traders.aspx

http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...tch/sentiment/
Great....thank you
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,692
  • Nov 24, 2010 7:01pm Nov 24, 2010 7:01pm
what i said! usdjpy never touch 82... at least 4 this month.... thx God U save my position...
  • #21,693
  • Nov 24, 2010 7:14pm Nov 24, 2010 7:14pm
this day is US Bank Holiday. can it make dollar down at the market today? who can make explanation 4 this?
  • #21,694
  • Nov 24, 2010 7:22pm Nov 24, 2010 7:22pm
Quoting grashid
what the heck that u r talking about? Did you understand PA? If not just shut and post something constructive...

we are here discussing something where just right on track...but sudden mongkey make noisy make me...mmm
cmon... dont be rude...i just try to tell u, so you're not making wrong position.. thats all. i,m sorry if i said something wrong ok... thx.
  • #21,695
  • Nov 24, 2010 8:16pm Nov 24, 2010 8:16pm
Korea tension is high; back in 2006 when NKor did some missile tests, USDJPY kept moving up.

I wonder what is motivating this beast to stay below 84.00...

Though I am wanting it to zoom up, I want to hitch a ride at a lower price however.
  • #21,696
  • Nov 24, 2010 9:31pm Nov 24, 2010 9:31pm
Quoting BurgerKing
Korea tension is high; back in 2006 when NKor did some missile tests, USDJPY kept moving up.

I wonder what is motivating this beast to stay below 84.00...

Though I am wanting it to zoom up, I want to hitch a ride at a lower price however.
be patient my brother.. it will zoom up soon. very soon.
  • #21,697
  • Nov 24, 2010 10:23pm Nov 24, 2010 10:23pm
Quoting felicciano
be patient my brother.. it will zoom up soon. very soon.
And you're going to post a chart to back this up???
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,698
  • Nov 24, 2010 10:59pm Nov 24, 2010 10:59pm
Here's additional perspective I posted on the USDX from Ashraf Laidi, given where it's 200 & 55 weekly MAs are at right now - he's expecting up, accompanied by a steep euro decline; the video explanation by Ashraf is just above his picture.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...18#post4198018
  • #21,699
  • Nov 24, 2010 11:36pm Nov 24, 2010 11:36pm
Quoting Beljevina
Here's additional perspective I posted on the USDX from Ashraf Laidi, given where it's 200 & 55 weekly MAs are at right now - he's expecting up, accompanied by a steep euro decline; the video explanation by Ashraf is just above his picture.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...18#post4198018
Great stuff.....excellent! Thank you for sharing this
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,700
  • Nov 25, 2010 1:27am Nov 25, 2010 1:27am
hi GRASHID........ how r u today? still angry with me? how's your usd/jpy position? profit or lost....? i believe its profit, right? well, do u have any CONSTRUCTIVE info 4 today? thx..
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