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vsa with Malcolm

  • #7,161
  • Nov 23, 2010 12:03pm Nov 23, 2010 12:03pm
Quoting gez40
Mal, bit confused on this one, weakness in the form of an UT, the bar marked has me confused..down bar volume less than the previous 2.. no selling pressure?

..any ideas mate
If I may,

After a valid UT we need a down bar in the next 2 bars in order to confirm the UT. The down bar is very often on low volume, it doesn't matter. To complete the set up we should be looking for a ND for entry.
  • #7,162
  • Nov 23, 2010 12:07pm Nov 23, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting Intel
If I may,

After a valid UT we need a down bar in the next 2 bars in order to confirm the UT. The down bar is very often on low volume, it doesn't matter. To complete the set up we should be looking for a ND for entry.
Cheers Intel,

You see, this is what happens when you switch from one system to another...you don`t learn anything.

Jack of all trades...master of none.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #7,163
  • Nov 23, 2010 12:08pm Nov 23, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting gez40
Cheers Intel,

You see, this is what happens when you switch from one system to another...you don`t learn anything.

Jack of all trades...master of none.
LOL as apposed to me.......jack of 1 trade......master of none
  • #7,164
  • Nov 23, 2010 12:09pm Nov 23, 2010 12:09pm
Quoting gez40
Mal, bit confused on this one, weakness in the form of an UT, the bar marked has me confused..down bar volume less than the previous 2.. no selling pressure?

..any ideas mate
Yes it is no selling pressure but volumes area is low. nice volume effort to fall is where tings get clear.

kers
Reserved
  • #7,165
  • Nov 23, 2010 12:18pm Nov 23, 2010 12:18pm
Quoting ZootSuit
Yes it is no selling pressure but volumes area is low. nice volume effort to fall is where tings get clear.

kers
I'm afraid the bar in question is not a 'no selling pressure' bar.

It is a narrow spread down bar closing off the low on volume less than theprevious 2 bars. This is a 'no supply' bar and a 'polar bear in Hawaii'.

A 'no selling pressure' bar would be wider spread and would close on the low.

They have similar sentiments but are used in slightly different ways.
  • #7,166
  • Nov 23, 2010 12:27pm Nov 23, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting gez40
GOLF...again? intel, you`ll never give Mal a run for his money with all this tee time...lol
I don't think I'll ever give Mal a run for his money, he's too good at this game
  • #7,167
  • Nov 23, 2010 12:30pm Nov 23, 2010 12:30pm
Quoting Intel
I don't think I'll ever give Mal a run for his money, he's too good at this game
Another one for you mate, trying to brush up on my lagging vsa skills.

Would these bars be seen as effort to rise sold in to?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #7,168
  • Nov 23, 2010 12:49pm Nov 23, 2010 12:49pm
Quoting gez40
Another one for you mate, trying to brush up on my lagging vsa skills.

Would these bars be seen as effort to rise sold in to?
The one on the right - yes that would describe the sentiment well.

The one on the left - no. It doesnt eally rise much from the close of the previous bar. There is a small rise in price then a good drop. The right hand bar tho, rises well then gets slammed, that is an up bar being heavily sold into thus producing a down bar.
  • #7,169
  • Nov 23, 2010 12:50pm Nov 23, 2010 12:50pm
Quoting Intel
The one on the right - yes that would describe the sentiment well.

The one on the left - no. It doesnt eally rise much from the close of the previous bar. There is a small rise in price then a good drop. The right hand bar tho, rises well then gets slammed, that is an up bar being heavily sold into thus producing a down bar.
Thanks mate, leave you in peace now, time for emmerdale..lol
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #7,170
  • Nov 23, 2010 12:54pm Nov 23, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting gez40
Another one for you mate, trying to brush up on my lagging vsa skills.

Would these bars be seen as effort to rise sold in to?
The left hand bar is a trend continuation bar. See how it breaks through the low of the ND and the previous bar to that on high volume.

It is the breaking of the low of the ND that gives us a good entry into the market.
  • #7,171
  • Nov 23, 2010 12:55pm Nov 23, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting gez40
Mal, bit confused on this one, weakness in the form of an UT, the bar marked has me confused..down bar volume less than the previous 2.. no selling pressure?

..any ideas mate
almost looks like a no demand of sorts. If you look at that same zone on a 15 min you will see 2 x no demands after that 60 min UT

I just let news brain wash me Monday and missed the bulk of move Monday

those of you with tradeguider look at the 2 hr and the red trend cnadles and set h stops to 2.25 and 1.75... never go aginast these lol .

In fact i just took a long HDU.to tofay due to H stops dropping under price for 1st time in weeks.... 11.90 entry 11.50 stop for potential 10 to 15% trade in my pension plan

I will post some tradeguider charts for todays price action , the 5 min was a beauty got me in at 1.5940 after a no demand on the 10 and then I just followed the h stops down . Still in the trade till i get stopped trialing about 20 pip
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #7,172
  • Nov 23, 2010 1:00pm Nov 23, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
Looking at longer term time frames I am not really seeing any major areas of support until the 5770 area. We may still be able to drop a few more pips before this runs out of steam.
Out
  • #7,173
  • Nov 23, 2010 1:04pm Nov 23, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting Intel

.....As a General rule of thumb, if we see u high volume without price rising fairly quickly, it means SM are selling.
Yes, it have me scratching my head for awhile after i saw these suspicious looking supply bars which is a form of hidden selling as i was holding on to a possible accumulation plan earlier for euro.
It was rather evident in GBP though in which I took my queues from, all these hidden selling & fail effort to rise. The levels was simply rejected.

Very nice chart Intel, appreciated.

Euro
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GBP
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  • #7,174
  • Nov 23, 2010 1:09pm Nov 23, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting Intel
It is possible that we could have entered long but the setup was a poor one....
I don't agree I believe that sometimes the buyers will hide themselves... a new low is sometimes made and another higher volume bar is presented at the lower bar... that is the actual low. Price usually will retrace to the last supply area that matched this volume if it doesn't exist then it will probably make a new high.

Today we had high volume and it made a new low... the m15 bar with a low of 1.3372 is the final nail in the coffin bar for me... the way I see PA lately. Its a new wave of head fakes to try to get in people before slaughtering them.

So I would say that if price makes a new low now without equal or higher volume that we saw on that m15 bar then it was actually SM selling and not buying.

From what I know Dumb Money is also SHORT EU.... as we speak we just saw high VOL on M5 and bias again is to the downside but only time Dumb Money is right going down is when we have a major crash because fear and liquidation kicks in.

Jag
  • #7,175
  • Nov 23, 2010 1:27pm Nov 23, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting sidhujag
I don't agree I believe that sometimes the buyers will hide themselves... a new low is sometimes made and another higher volume bar is presented at the lower bar... that is the actual low. Price usually will retrace to the last supply area that matched this volume if it doesn't exist then it will probably make a new high.

Today we had high volume and it made a new low... the m15 bar with a low of 1.3372 is the final nail in the coffin bar for me... the way I see PA lately. Its a new wave of head fakes to try to get in people before slaughtering...

Hi jag,

I said quite a bit in that post. Which part exactly do you not agree with?
  • #7,176
  • Nov 23, 2010 1:32pm Nov 23, 2010 1:32pm
Quoting Intel
Hi jag,

I said quite a bit in that post. Which part exactly do you not agree with?

I shouldn't have said it like that... but the part that if price isn't rising quickly then SM probably isn't buying... I think they like to hide themselves more and more.

Just thinking that when big moves happen I doubt the rules are the same.

Also the bigger the base... the bigger the move... if SM can for example stop sellers at this price in a small range... it will usually mean a bigger move up. However if price stabs down and makes a new low... then any move up should be sold into... given that the low wasn't bought up on high volume.
  • #7,177
  • Nov 23, 2010 2:08pm Nov 23, 2010 2:08pm
eu top was an easier one today

1) no demand
2) sneaky could have thrown you bvut did not take out high of nd
3) clear no demand and shortly after hulls curled down

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #7,178
  • Nov 23, 2010 2:12pm Nov 23, 2010 2:12pm
This was much harder than eu BUT on a 10 min tradeguider picked up a No demand

1)doji with highish volume
2)up candle BUT immediate rection was down candle = weakness still there and not ready to breakout top of channel
3)highest volume squat bar after seeing the 2 bar reversal a few bars early . This was my entry as hulls was also red . 1.5920 entry

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #7,179
  • Nov 23, 2010 2:17pm Nov 23, 2010 2:17pm
Quoting sidhujag
I shouldn't have said it like that... but the part that if price isn't rising quickly then SM probably isn't buying... I think they like to hide themselves more and more.

Just thinking that when big moves happen I doubt the rules are the same.

Also the bigger the base... the bigger the move... if SM can for example stop sellers at this price in a small range... it will usually mean a bigger move up. However if price stabs down and makes a new low... then any move up should be sold into... given that the low wasn't bought up on high volume.

high volumeon down bars if next bar is up will always indicate strength BUT it seems that the bulls have been absorbed ...always watch for reaction to these bars. I was way to biased this week and forgot the basic rules of trading (for eu anyway) ..es my baby , has been producing well.

1.33 is a critical level on the weekly as it is channel low. this breaks we have been in a bear flag last few months and we have a much larger decline

GU I am looking for any form of up move to have weakness. There is 1.5650 support under us on the daily and IF tomorrow is a down day then we could see that tested in the next 24 hours
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #7,180
  • Nov 23, 2010 2:18pm Nov 23, 2010 2:18pm
Quoting sidhujag
I shouldn't have said it like that... but the part that if price isn't rising quickly then SM probably isn't buying... I think they like to hide themselves more and more.

Just thinking that when big moves happen I doubt the rules are the same.

Also the bigger the base... the bigger the move... if SM can for example stop sellers at this price in a small range... it will usually mean a bigger move up. However if price stabs down and makes a new low... then any move up should be sold into... given that the low wasn't bought up on high volume.

Ah I see, ok lets have a look at that.

We have the usual setup of possible selling climax followed by a super shake out. We are expecting a raise in price. Next we have a massive amount of volume which means that the smart money are either buying or selling like mad but we dont know which yet.

On the first of the 3 u h volume bars we have a POTENTIAL buying bar. If it does contain buying at that kind of volume, we will surely see a hike in price. The 2nd of the u high vol bars is a narrow spread, narrow range up bar. The 3rd is also a narrow spread and narrow range up bar. So we have a massive effort by the SM but no result to speak of, we can see. If SM had put that much effort into raising prices you can bet your life that price would have gone up......but it didn't. Which means they must be selling and not buying.

This theory can be read in Master the Markets, in the 'Effort Vs Results' section. It is valid for tops and bottoms. I think our little scenario is a good example of this.

EDIT :- I forgot to mention that the very next bar after the u high vol bars is a ND.
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