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  • #330,541
  • Nov 22, 2010 1:27pm Nov 22, 2010 1:27pm
omg - nasdaq closed on the day-high and also gold had some strong hours...i'm still very pessimistic for both. Gold is maybe forming also a top.
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Pecunia non olet
  • #330,542
  • Nov 22, 2010 1:33pm Nov 22, 2010 1:33pm
My view
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  • #330,543
  • Nov 22, 2010 1:43pm Nov 22, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting mfoste1
hmmm i though volatility would increase due to year end liquidation of positions and there will be thin liquidity due to holiday trading ....from looking at positioning of commodities, equities, VIX, geopolitical events that have come to light today, data releases tomorrow, i am positioning myself for a strong risk aversion day tomorrow....

if not tomorrow, i think by wednesday we will see dow break and close below 11k
Assumptions are the mother of all fook ups! Play it, how you see it, as it is now. Wish you success with your trading
  • #330,544
  • Nov 22, 2010 2:02pm Nov 22, 2010 2:02pm
Quoting bbakker
Assumptions are the mother of all fook ups! Play it, how you see it, as it is now. Wish you success with your trading
Agreed!!! I have moved my s/l to below today's low... Looking to keep moving it until we reach at least today's highs...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #330,545
  • Nov 22, 2010 2:02pm Nov 22, 2010 2:02pm
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  • #330,546
  • Nov 22, 2010 2:08pm Nov 22, 2010 2:08pm
when punters are talking about.. "Made 300 pips"... Are they talking about against certain lot size,are they doing this against the lowest denomination of amount or just purely market movement?
  • #330,547
  • Nov 22, 2010 2:16pm Nov 22, 2010 2:16pm
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  • #330,548
  • Nov 22, 2010 2:23pm Nov 22, 2010 2:23pm
Hi everybody,

I have updated the EW counts on EURUSD on my blog. See pics there.....


Both charts right now have the same likelihood. Only a break of 3786 to th upper side or a break of 3576 to the down side will give us a clue. A break of 3447 would nail the case that we are in orange 3 already.

Yesterday nights push to 3786 was at the 38% fib retracement of the move down from 4282

On 4h chart we have both MMTL 0/8 sup,Kuomo resistance and are right above Tenkan sen. On daily chart we have MMTL Pivot +4/8 and at the same time we are inside of Kuomo. Tenkan-Sen support on dailys was lost.

On hourly chart PA is crawling up the bottom of Kuomo. Tenkan-sen will give resistance 3681, even so MMTL 0/8 at 3672. MACD turned to the upper side but is below zero yet.

I expect further up-move to at least 3652 to 3703.
  • #330,549
  • Nov 22, 2010 2:50pm Nov 22, 2010 2:50pm
To back up Cloggs' warning of today.
Hello.
  • #330,550
  • Nov 22, 2010 2:53pm Nov 22, 2010 2:53pm
Quoting lasty
when punters are talking about.. "Made 300 pips"... Are they talking about against certain lot size,are they doing this against the lowest denomination of amount or just purely market movement?

most of the people that say made 300 pip are trading a demo....however, on a live account doesnt matter how much pip value you are trading. For example, today i made 100 pips trading $1/pip, thats the same as my buddy who made 100 pips trading at $10/pip, he just made more money. IMO pips made is how I would judge a trader, not by the amount of money he makes.
  • #330,551
  • Nov 22, 2010 2:55pm Nov 22, 2010 2:55pm
Quoting emene
To back up Cloggs' warning of today.

nah i think cloggie was saying that volatility will decrease due to low liquidity....

him and i were talking about this....
  • #330,552
  • Nov 22, 2010 2:58pm Nov 22, 2010 2:58pm
Quoting mfoste1
most of the people that say made 300 pip are trading a demo....however, on a live account doesnt matter how much pip value you are trading. For example, today i made 100 pips trading $1/pip, thats the same as my buddy who made 100 pips trading at $10/pip, he just made more money. IMO pips made is how I would judge a trader, not by the amount of money he makes.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #330,553
  • Nov 22, 2010 3:01pm Nov 22, 2010 3:01pm
Quoting cloggie
No, we will have low volatility and low liquidity, year end profit taking will happen slowly, over the next few weeks.

December will see plenty of sub 100 pip days and from 15th Dec, we will see plenty of sub 80 pip days, so both volatility and volumes will decrease.
There were good trading days up to 12/22 last year. And a 800-pip steady slide in E/U over the first 3 weeks of December - remember Dubai?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #330,554
  • Nov 22, 2010 3:01pm Nov 22, 2010 3:01pm
Quoting mfoste1
nah i think cloggie was saying that volatility will decrease due to low liquidity....

him and i were talking about this....

It depends how you define volatility, there will be occasional M1 and M5 ranges that can be more volatile then they are now, but on a hourly, H4 or day by day comparison the volatility will decrease.

So there will be more and larger smaller TF whipsaws, a bit more slippage but overall as a daytrader trading the higher TF's it will be like watching paint dry, so it really all depends on your strategy, MM and the correct placement of stops, more so then is the case now. Time to finetune your strategy if it is a bit sloppy.

I guess Forexlive looked at the lower TF and considers them more volatile, while I judge the overall currency moves taking out the noise of the lower TF's
  • #330,555
  • Nov 22, 2010 3:02pm Nov 22, 2010 3:02pm
Yeah I read you guys, just wanted to stress the characteristics of this period of the year for unwarned souls.

Quoting mfoste1
nah i think cloggie was saying that volatility will decrease due to low liquidity....

him and i were talking about this....
Hello.
  • #330,556
  • Nov 22, 2010 3:02pm Nov 22, 2010 3:02pm
Quoting The Fool
There were good trading days up to 12/22 last year. And a 800-pip steady slide in E/U over the first 3 weeks of December - remember Dubai?

A bit of good news always helps. Look at my earlier post, I said things will slow down until Portugal hits the fan, that could well be this year's Dubai.

I expected today to be a lot calmer then it was and I was wrong, the fundies were not helped by uncertainty whether the Irish government was going to hold based on this. I also expected more substance out of this weekend meeting regarding Irish cuts which we didn't get, that is still 4 weeks away. So the markets are still driven by risk aversion and the FI guys for a few more days to come.

Portugal is hovering right below the 7% mark, at which point refinancing becomes an issue as the rollover cannot pay for the outstanding debt, let alone for the budget shortfall this year.

We will be talking about Portugal within the next 2 weeks or so. The bondmarket may delay this and wait for results out of Ireland and a done deal, in that case we can expect Portugal about 4 weeks from today.

The 3rd alternative is that the market will just soldier on till after the new year break. If I knew exactly I would make a killing, these are just estimated guesses really. Keep an eye on the wires and the yields.
  • #330,557
  • Nov 22, 2010 3:06pm Nov 22, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting mfoste1
most of the people that say made 300 pip are trading a demo....however, on a live account doesnt matter how much pip value you are trading. For example, today i made 100 pips trading $1/pip, thats the same as my buddy who made 100 pips trading at $10/pip, he just made more money. IMO pips made is how I would judge a trader, not by the amount of money he makes.

mfoste great way to relate this. Every time I sit in front of my platform I always have it in mind no matter what my account size is I will have to realize that even though my trade size is much much smaller than that of someone who trades much much bigger I have to keep in mind that with proper money management we are trading the same. Quality and quantity not lot size.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #330,558
  • Nov 22, 2010 3:10pm Nov 22, 2010 3:10pm
Thought I would share this diagram I've seen on innerfx.com
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  • #330,559
  • Nov 22, 2010 3:13pm Nov 22, 2010 3:13pm
Quoting z3r0
Thought I would share this diagram I've seen on innerfx.com
Scary.
Hello.
  • #330,560
  • Nov 22, 2010 3:14pm Nov 22, 2010 3:14pm
Quoting emene
Scary.

Scary? UK total debt is 4.8Trn, that is half the US's. But at least the UK and US are in control unlike all the EU members. Madness, an ECB with no power, a currency with no CB, a central government with no power, individual members with their own power and no control over the central government and the CB. What monkey ever thought of this? Oh cr@p it was the Cloggies that started it, back in 48 with a little pressure from Winston.
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