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  • #329,481
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:45am Nov 21, 2010 8:45am
General consensus on a forum means nothing. The market doesn't care.
  • #329,482
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:48am Nov 21, 2010 8:48am
Quoting qwertymyfx
General consensus on a forum means nothing.

Of course it does, as the majority of retailers have no clue what they are doing it is a great indicator.

Look at the first CFTC reports, on average 70-80% of the "active" retail accounts lose money consistently, a no brainer.
  • #329,483
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:55am Nov 21, 2010 8:55am
Quoting cloggie
Of course it does, as the majority of retailers have no clue what they are doing it is a great indicator.

Look at the first CFTC reports, on average 70-80% of the "active" retail accounts lose money consistently, a no brainer.
I am going to Oanda as my chances of losing money are less than if I were to go with other brokers
  • #329,484
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:56am Nov 21, 2010 8:56am
Quoting Venice
Everyone trying to hard to find the direction and it seems the general consensus is bear.

I'll let my chart tell me which way we are going
so what does your chart tell you? any setup? I posted this one a week ago which indicated possible downward resistance at around 1.348. cannot update chart because my pc is down, but price action still respects the kumo.

Fundamentals could change that, and donīt forget Ireland did not fulfill its austerity targets which is why Austria refuses their payment. others could follow. http://www.forexcrunch.com/austria-s...ro-vulnerable/
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  • #329,485
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:57am Nov 21, 2010 8:57am
Quoting bbakker
I am going to Oanda as my chances of losing money are less than if I were to go with other brokers

That is actually the biggest reason not to go to Oanda, statistically you do not want to be at either end of the bell curve.
  • #329,486
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:58am Nov 21, 2010 8:58am
after greece bail-out the euro increased a lot. now i expect euro will increase a bit ( maybe we have to wait until the agreement is on paper). but this time we have to follow the other countries as well , portugal , spain ...
  • #329,487
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:58am Nov 21, 2010 8:58am
For all those thinking you will be going for spain and portuagal think again. lol.The EU is expected to guarantee bonds issued by Irish banks and to extend that guarantee across Europe to prevent speculators from going after Portugal or Spain, the Sunday Times reported.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ire...mes-2010-11-21
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #329,488
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:59am Nov 21, 2010 8:59am
Quoting malcolmb14
may i correct myself .

This does not seem like it is being bought on all dips. It is being bought.

I use vsa ... the pros cannot hide their footprint in the charts

for now I would get rid of your bear bias. If 1.3720 gets taken out next week then strong chance this thing goes and tests supply at 3950 to 1.4

btw most systems fail ... that is why an ea makes some cash for a period then blows up the account in short order. The market is dynamic

Most successful traders use naked charts... look at Redwords... and others.
Hi malcomb, VSA has been one of the things I want to figure out and I have been reading forums but I seem to find all kinds of different things out there, I am not sure which one I should read. Would you be able to point me to a short clear conscise process? If you dont mind. Thanks.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #329,489
  • Nov 21, 2010 9:02am Nov 21, 2010 9:02am
Quoting cloggie
That is actually the biggest reason not to go to Oanda, statistically you do not want to be at either end of the bell curve.

I agree, the funny thing is that so many people think they will lose money with a broker unless its Oanda and what not. I think it depends on the individual, and knowing what that individual's limits are for loss probability based on the size they are trading. Stops too tight, Stops in the wrong place what not. ect..
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #329,490
  • Nov 21, 2010 9:03am Nov 21, 2010 9:03am
Quoting Pipmysterio
For all those thinking you will be going for spain and portuagal think again. lol.The EU is expected to guarantee bonds issued by Irish banks and to extend that guarantee across Europe to prevent speculators from going after Portugal or Spain, the Sunday Times reported.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ire...mes-2010-11-21

Of course the FI boys are going for Portugal and Spain, it is a no-brainer setup, drive the spreads up, make money on the way up, force the EU to bail them out, spreads down, make money on the way down. The last 18 months has been the biggest windfall the FI boys ever had. Do you really think that one article in a newspaper is going to stop them? Of course not, they are in it for the money. The currency market has been bond driven for quite a while, all we have to do is follow the bond market, no brainer setups.

Go back to your Times report and research what Merkel said a few months ago, that will tell you how the FI boys play with the EU and how the EU can do absolutely nothing about it. If spreads would not widen, there would never be a bailout. The bailouts are not caused by the EU, they are caused by the markets and what makes you think the markets are now all of a sudden going to stop at Ireland, you think all the FI boys are going to retire? Germany and England don't care, their rates hover around 3%, it is the periphery that is being played.
  • #329,491
  • Nov 21, 2010 9:11am Nov 21, 2010 9:11am
Quoting cloggie
Of course the FI boys are going for Portugal and Spain, it is a no-brainer setup, drive the spreads up, make money on the way up, force the EU to bail them out, spreads down, make money on the way down. The last 18 months has been the biggest windfall the FI boys ever had. Do you really think that one article in a newspaper is going to stop them? Of course not, they are in it for the money. The currency market has been bond driven for quite a while, all we have to do is follow the bond market, no brainer setups.

Go back to your Times report and...

Dude just play the bear side. I'm a bull and we shall see what happens by the end of the week. I recognize your username so we can talk after the week is done. I will eat my heart out if the Euro close lower than Friday's close.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #329,492
  • Nov 21, 2010 9:22am Nov 21, 2010 9:22am
Quoting cloggie
That is actually the biggest reason not to go to Oanda, statistically you do not want to be at either end of the bell curve.
As you know I was only kidding, but you have given a very valid point when choosing a brokerage firm.
  • #329,493
  • Nov 21, 2010 9:28am Nov 21, 2010 9:28am
does anyone know whats happening with ireland bail-out this weekend and how it will effect the dix?
  • #329,494
  • Edited 9:42am Nov 21, 2010 9:31am | Edited 9:42am
weekly=daily=H4=min 300-600pips up from 1.34365 last week low.

Key area to take a look was 1.37320-1.38250-1.38710.
Close any H1/h4 above this 1.38710 then welcome back 1.40820-1.42180.
Otherwise ranging between 1.34365-1.38710 until this month close then only will make a confirmation of an overall bear trend.

I believe 1.40820 should be safe and max for this pull back.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=323299

Just my 2 cent..........adios

g
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  • #329,495
  • Nov 21, 2010 10:00am Nov 21, 2010 10:00am
where can we follow the bond market of EU ?
  • #329,496
  • Nov 21, 2010 10:05am Nov 21, 2010 10:05am
I have this thing with developing a premature vision.
If happens what i predicted then its a sure trade.

This is what i came up with now..
If this small descending triangle develops on the 23.6 fib then we may bounce from 1.3558 or 1.3572 because we haven't reached the 38.2 fib yet.
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  • #329,497
  • Nov 21, 2010 10:14am Nov 21, 2010 10:14am
I've still holding Bullish position until 1.38-1.39.

First area of resistance for me on the Daily. What price does there will tell me if I should I cont to hold my Longs or close 'em and look for Shorts.

Surprisingly enough, if price does reverse off 1.38, price would be inline with previous established bearish channel.
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  • #329,498
  • Nov 21, 2010 10:14am Nov 21, 2010 10:14am
Hi
Patience , Focus into the process not the money.
Good luck and happy new week
CYA
  • #329,499
  • Nov 21, 2010 10:32am Nov 21, 2010 10:32am
Ireland Sells Out Its People To Germany's Bankers, Will Apply For Rescue Tonight! http://bit.ly/cy2r87

Zerohedge reporting Ireland sold out to the German Banks, IMF, ECB, and Feds.

Would be interesting to see how this plays out in the market this week. Was on holiday this week but I guess I'll keep my eyes open on the charts and ears open on funamentals.

BBC News also confirms Ireland accepting aid. http://bbc.in/dioFL2
  • #329,500
  • Edited 10:49am Nov 21, 2010 10:38am | Edited 10:49am
Quoting Jhig
Ireland Sells Out Its People To Germany's Bankers, Will Apply For Rescue Tonight! http://bit.ly/cy2r87

Zerohedge reporting Ireland sold out to the German Banks, IMF, ECB, and Feds.

Would be interesting to see how this plays out in the market this week. Was on holiday this week but I guess I'll keep my eyes open on the charts and ears open on funamentals.

BBC News also confirms Ireland accepting aid. http://bbc.in/dioFL2
josef how are you my friend?

i think this short trading week will be very interesting....
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