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Trade What You See - Almost Naked Trading

  • #4,981
  • Nov 20, 2010 4:34pm Nov 20, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting LFB
Hi all
For me last week was hard one, my week target (+10%) had failed. In fact i did -3%.
My conclusions are:
Do not try to trade Monday morning (GMT+1 Time). There is no direction at all.
Try to trade exactly as The system is described. This week i have tried many "improvements" and "smart ideas"
I will focus for now at 3Tap part and have hope that next week end with better results.
What i did right last week:
I think my MM works, i put 2-3% in each transaction. Size in lots is calculated for every transaction based on how big in pips will...
Let's look at this. One hundred trades is way too many trades for what we are doing. This is more like the number of trades scalpers would put on in a week.

I would recommend that you limit yourself to no more than three pairs this week and really concentrate on getting to "know" those pairs. Or even one pair like GBPUSD. Taking a look at that pair and just placing the trades we marked on this thread, could have earned over 300 pips. Not a bad week's work.

We have all been guilty of overtrading. I will still do it sometimes, but usually I recognize it as either fear or greed in myself...two emotions that I constantly have to beat back.
  • #4,982
  • Nov 20, 2010 4:35pm Nov 20, 2010 4:35pm
Chart for last week
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  • #4,983
  • Nov 20, 2010 4:41pm Nov 20, 2010 4:41pm
Quoting LFB
Hi all
For me last week was hard one, my week target (+10%) had failed. In fact i did -3%.
My conclusions are:
Do not try to trade Monday morning (GMT+1 Time). There is no direction at all.
Try to trade exactly as The system is described. This week i have tried many "improvements" and "smart ideas"
I will focus for now at 3Tap part and have hope that next week end with better results.
What i did right last week:
I think my MM works, i put 2-3% in each transaction. Size in lots is calculated for every transaction based on how big in pips...
Hi LFB, wow I think even allowing for the 3 strats employed here (3 tap, BO, Gaps) 100 trades is a LOT! I am at the opposite end of the scale. I watch a lot of trades but pull the trigger on only a few. This week was my best with these strats as I banked 164pips. I had 10trades, 8wins and 2 BE. I see loads of set-ups but I try to trade with a rifle and not a shotgun. I still have a long way to go but hopefully I am getting there slowly.
ps. I think a 10% target each week is pretty ambitious.
  • #4,984
  • Nov 20, 2010 5:25pm Nov 20, 2010 5:25pm
Quoting Ph22
Hi LFB, wow I think even allowing for the 3 strats employed here (3 tap, BO, Gaps) 100 trades is a LOT! I am at the opposite end of the scale. I watch a lot of trades but pull the trigger on only a few. This week was my best with these strats as I banked 164pips. I had 10trades, 8wins and 2 BE. I see loads of set-ups but I try to trade with a rifle and not a shotgun. I still have a long way to go but hopefully I am getting there slowly.
ps. I think a 10% target each week is pretty ambitious.
If you have the time, PH, would you list your winning trades by pair, strategy and direction? I would like to take a look at them for my own analytical purposes. Thanks so much and really great job.
  • #4,985
  • Nov 20, 2010 5:27pm Nov 20, 2010 5:27pm
It's probably a stupid question, and I guess it's been asked or mentioned before, but I was wondering, when you pull the trigger, do you always take the monthly RSI arrow into account?
  • #4,986
  • Nov 20, 2010 6:46pm Nov 20, 2010 6:46pm
Quoting LFB
Hi all
For me last week was hard one, my week target (+10%) had failed. In fact i did -3%.
10% a week as a target is way to ambitious... its outright gambling greed and impossible to attain.

Starting with a $10,000 account and increasing 10% a week = 1.3 mill in 52 weeks... ain't gunna happen mate.


Try a fixed number of pips per day or week rather than a % number, and you should never risk more than 2% of your account at any time... the less you risk, the more trades you can place.

If you crave a lot of action, only risk 1% or less per trade.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #4,987
  • Nov 20, 2010 6:57pm Nov 20, 2010 6:57pm
Quoting pt49
10% a week as a target is way to ambitious... its outright gambling greed and impossible to attain.

Starting with a $10,000 account and increasing 10% a week = 1.3 mill in 52 weeks... ain't gunna happen mate.


Try a fixed number of pips per day or week rather than a % number, and you should never risk more than 2% of your account at any time... the less you risk, the more trades you can place.

If you crave a lot of action, only risk 1% or less per trade.

I understand what you are saying PT. And very well may be good advice for LFB??

But traders have put up those kind of numbers. So no it is not impossible to attain
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #4,988
  • Nov 20, 2010 9:58pm Nov 20, 2010 9:58pm
Agreed... its possible for a short while, or occassionaly, but in 7 years of trading I've yet to talk to anyone who has survived trading these numbers.

Incidently I've done 10% a day at times, doubled live accounts in a few days, even ran an EA on a demo account for 10 months averaging 25% month but it went down with the worldwide crash about 18 months ago.

How about 200% net in 5 weeks? Done that too... again an EA, in Demo.

BUT... would I try it on a live account? NO WAY JOSE!

My point is that if you are going to last in this game, you can't be greedy, because you will NOT survive.
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In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #4,989
  • Nov 20, 2010 10:38pm Nov 20, 2010 10:38pm
pt49 is right. Greed is a nasty green-eyed monster that has humbled many a trader, including this one. I hope I have learned my (expensive) lesson. There are many systems out there that encourage adding-on to positions. In theory, it sounds great. But, from experience, I know. It doesn't work, neither profit-wise nor percentage-wise. Stick to you system. The profits will come. Tomorrow is another day. Please keep that in mind when you are on the profit-end of a trade.
  • #4,990
  • Nov 20, 2010 10:47pm Nov 20, 2010 10:47pm
Quoting pt49
10% a week as a target is way to ambitious... its outright gambling greed and impossible to attain.

Starting with a $10,000 account and increasing 10% a week = 1.3 mill in 52 weeks... ain't gunna happen mate.


Try a fixed number of pips per day or week rather than a % number, and you should never risk more than 2% of your account at any time... the less you risk, the more trades you can place.

If you crave a lot of action, only risk 1% or less per trade.
Lets say your goal was 10% a week, and you traded a system like the 4 candle breakouts here, using a 20 pip stop. You risk 1.5% per trade, which I think most people would accept as being reasonable. You would need to average somewhere just below 30 pips a day to reach this target. Does anyone here think that is really impossible? I'm willing to bet that Lawgirl is doing better than that.

So what about getting to 1.3 million in a year? There are tremendous psychological differences between risking 150 dollars on a trade in a 10K account, and risking $15,000 on the same trade with a million in the account. There's no logical reason for the difference, but we aren't talking about logic. We are talking about a person putting $15,000 on the line for a trade where every tick probably costs what the person was used to making in a day or more.

On top of that, there is the simple problem of volume. At $1 million, you would have to be putting on trades with about 750 standard lots. At some point on your journey to $1 million, liquidity and slippage will almost certainly become issues. 10% a week is possible, even with consistency. 10% a week compounded is a much dicier proposition.
  • #4,991
  • Nov 20, 2010 11:39pm Nov 20, 2010 11:39pm
I think 30 pips a day is a reasonable goal.
  • #4,992
  • Nov 20, 2010 11:49pm Nov 20, 2010 11:49pm
Quoting duffypratt
Lets say your goal was 10% a week, and you traded a system like the 4 candle breakouts here, using a 20 pip stop. You risk 1.5% per trade, which I think most people would accept as being reasonable. You would need to average somewhere just below 30 pips a day to reach this target. Does anyone here think that is really impossible? I'm willing to bet that Lawgirl is doing better than that.

So what about getting to 1.3 million in a year? There are tremendous psychological differences between risking 150 dollars on a trade in a 10K account, and risking...

Besides all of what you are saying, which I totally agree with...I would never, never, never let any forex broker hold that much of my money.
  • #4,993
  • Nov 21, 2010 2:25am Nov 21, 2010 2:25am
Quoting duffypratt
On top of that, there is the simple problem of volume. At $1 million, you would have to be putting on trades with about 750 standard lots. .
Nope... if it was a 10k account originally, at 1 mill it would be 75 lots, not 750.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #4,994
  • Nov 21, 2010 2:33am Nov 21, 2010 2:33am
Now my question is...

Lawgirl says she has no losing trades (or very few)... so I wonder what stops she is using.

I have traded live accounts without using stops and ultimately they all got in trouble at some point. The most I lost on a live account is a lot... not a traded lot, but a LOT (well over 6 figures in fact).

I haven't been watching this method long enough to know how good it is, but it would be interesting to know what size stops you guys are using for your 4 hour, 1 day and weekly trades.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #4,995
  • Nov 21, 2010 4:13am Nov 21, 2010 4:13am
Quoting lawgirl21
If you have the time, PH, would you list your winning trades by pair, strategy and direction? I would like to take a look at them for my own analytical purposes. Thanks so much and really great job.
Hi LG, I think all of these were more or less by the book tho I may have slightly pre-empted rsi on a couple if PA was moving in desired direction with some momentum.

Sun: UC short 15pips - Gap
Mon: No trades
Tue: EU short 35pips - 3tap 1600
Tue: AU short 20pips - 3tap 1600
Tue: GU short 20pips - BO 1700

Wed: GU long 15pips - BO 1100
Thu: EJ long 24pips - 3tap 1600
Fri: EJ long 20pips - 3tap 0800
Fri: GU short 15pips - BO 1400

(Last column is fxdd candle time.)

As u can see, my problem is not greed but fear ie I usually exit too early especially on 3tap trades as some ran for 80-150pips. This doesn't give me a good r:r on a trade but having said that last week at least I had good entries on the whole with minimal DD. I know my r:r definately needs work tho. I am trading live but small.
Best point about last week was that I didn't give any of it back - and that pleases me no end!
  • #4,996
  • Nov 21, 2010 4:15am Nov 21, 2010 4:15am
Quoting bluesteele
I understand what you are saying PT. And very well may be good advice for LFB??

But traders have put up those kind of numbers. So no it is not impossible to attain
It may not be impossible but I reckon it would be pretty damn hard! Compounding always sounds great in theory and would be fine whilst account was small but I imagine once u get to the bigger numbers then huge psychological aspects and broker issues would kick in. Nice to have that problem tho
  • #4,997
  • Nov 21, 2010 5:38am Nov 21, 2010 5:38am
Thank you All for all your comments and advices. I know that 10% is quite ambitious but as showed in duffypratt's calculation is not that crazy.
I have found this number this way. I trade mostly with risk 2% per trade. My Risk:Reward ratio is mostly 1:1 or 1:1,5 sometimes very rarely it is 1:2 so i need 5 clean trades a week to achieve my goal. I know that it is not easy to have no loosing trades and it is not my goal. Fghting to keep every pip is not good approach and Ph22 You should find it as a problem in your strategy. About pip target for week, i think it works when you enter all your trades with similar lot size. My lot size is calculated according to stop loss and that is why pip value differences a lot. When i use 15pip stop loss i enter with 4xlot size that i would enter for 60 pip stop loss.
And here are what troubles me the most:
I have to fight with huge doubts when to enter and leave the trade. It is so hard to know if there is still possibility to earn something in 3tap trade when trigger shows up. The second big problem is when to leave trade which is going the right direction. I often cut the trade far to early because i fear it will suddenly reverse. In fact this often turns my trade style into scalping.
I know that those things will be easier with experience. I also know that 10% a week will not scale up to billions, but if i will achieve 100.000 account this way i will be more then glad
Thank you all for your great help, Thank you LawGirl for your everyday support and such a great system to follow. I wish us all great pips next week.
  • #4,998
  • Nov 21, 2010 5:44am Nov 21, 2010 5:44am
Quoting Ph22
As u can see, my problem is not greed but fear ie I usually exit too early especially on 3tap trades as some ran for 80-150pips.
Ph22... you can overcome the fear factor by reducing your lot size... and in doing so hopefully allow your trades to run to their 80-150 pips.

The other answer may be to take ½ your trade off the table at +20 pips, move your stop to break even or to the level that the 3rd tap hit the line... and let that balance run to 80-100 pips (or whatever you are comfortable with).
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #4,999
  • Nov 21, 2010 5:54am Nov 21, 2010 5:54am
After 7 years of trading I prefer to trade off a daily chart, and once you do that for a while, 100 pips seems like a scalp trade.

For instance last week I shorted the aud/usd with a 500 pip target. That trade has been over 150 pips in profit twice already, but I'm still in it. Currently its +29.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #5,000
  • Nov 21, 2010 5:54am Nov 21, 2010 5:54am
Quoting LFB
Thank you All for all your comments and advices. I know that 10% is quite ambitious but as showed in duffypratt's calculation is not that crazy.
I have found this number this way. I trade mostly with risk 2% per trade. My Risk:Reward ratio is mostly 1:1 or 1:1,5 sometimes very rarely it is 1:2 so i need 5 clean trades a week to achieve my goal. I know that it is not easy to have no loosing trades and it is not my goal. Fghting to keep every pip is not good approach and Ph22 You should find it as a problem in your strategy. About pip target for week,...
I don't consciously fight to keep every pip but in the past I have sometimes given back all my gains or worse still given it all back plus more. In that context I was pleased to have retained it all this week but of course I don't expect that every week!
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