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  • #329,301
  • Nov 19, 2010 12:49pm Nov 19, 2010 12:49pm
Quoting mfoste1
movements solely depend on how much money is in the market and how much money is on the other side of the trade....sometimes 300mio orders wont move the market, other times 3 mio a clip will....its all about liquidity.
Of course it depends on how much money is in the market. I personally have met a couple bank traders in New York that have used Excessive amounts of money up to 50 million to move a currency to a particular level.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #329,302
  • Nov 19, 2010 12:49pm Nov 19, 2010 12:49pm
you didn't get what i meant. and from your answer, i can see you're way off... no offense and no disrespect.

Quoting goods
Do you realize how much money it takes to move currencies? Multimillions if dollars. Smart money own millions of dollars. I guarantee you not all smart money was selling and not all was buying. I am not smart money I capitalize off the moves made available to me and it works just fine.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #329,303
  • Nov 19, 2010 12:50pm Nov 19, 2010 12:50pm
Quoting cloggie
He didn't say that. Also it does not take a lot to move a currency, there is a phenomena called the hot potato effect that exacerbates currrency moves.

Elaborate this hot potato effect

It takes alot of money to move at times and it takes little to move it sometimes.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #329,304
  • Nov 19, 2010 12:50pm Nov 19, 2010 12:50pm
33 pips from one trade held over 28 hours. Should have negotiated that better really! Still not a bad result at all, just could have easily been a lot better. I don't have a clue where it will go after weekend so not leaving this one running. I expected the dive to start nearer the 800 mark but perhaps I'm wrong? Bearish week on the cards I think.
Bring it on!
  • #329,305
  • Nov 19, 2010 12:51pm Nov 19, 2010 12:51pm
Quoting Scrat
you didn't get what i meant. and from your answer, i can see you're way off... no offense and no disrespect.
You said smart money, What is your definition of a trend. All I am saying is you have long term trends, bit trends, mini trends, heck even intraday trends. So depending on which trend you are talking about I might see where you are coming from.

No disrespect taken, I am not way off, perhaps what you wording differently might have helped be clear on what you mean.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #329,306
  • Nov 19, 2010 12:51pm Nov 19, 2010 12:51pm
Quoting goods
Elaborate this hot potato effect

It takes alot of money to move at times and it takes little to move it sometimes.

Orders get passed around between brokers and liquidity providers so a 10 mill order can go around the market a few times and become 70 mill before the turns are completed. They pass on their imbalances in their book.
  • #329,307
  • Nov 19, 2010 12:53pm Nov 19, 2010 12:53pm
Quoting cloggie
Orders get passed around between brokers and liquidity providers so a 10 mill order can go around the market a few times and become 70 mill before the turns are completed.

right but someone has to be on the other side of the bid/offer to accept that. I am not saying it can move the market but what I am saying is chances can be great that the market is moved.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #329,308
  • Nov 19, 2010 12:54pm Nov 19, 2010 12:54pm
Usdchf bull may planning to hit the parity before close & eu break 3619 to 3608 . just waitng see if able to.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #329,309
  • Nov 19, 2010 12:55pm Nov 19, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting goods
Of course it depends on how much money is in the market. I personally have met a couple bank traders in New York that have used Excessive amounts of money up to 50 million to move a currency to a particular level.
What about us the Forex retail market which is a small part of the forex market. How can the retail side really move the market, I would think not much at all? But I don't care as much because I just want to ride the wave and be on the right side with them taken my little pips in and out.

Peace and have a nice weekend.
  • #329,310
  • Nov 19, 2010 12:57pm Nov 19, 2010 12:57pm
yes you are way off. let me ask you this: do you know what happens in a trend, let's say an uptrend? what is smart money doing in an uptrend? and what are we suppose to do?

Quoting goods
You said smart money, What is your definition of a trend. All I am saying is you have long term trends, bit trends, mini trends, heck even intraday trends. So depending on which trend you are talking about I might see where you are coming from.

No disrespect taken, I am not way off, perhaps what you wording differently might have helped be clear on what you mean.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #329,311
  • Nov 19, 2010 12:58pm Nov 19, 2010 12:58pm
Quoting goods
right but someone has to be on the other side of the bid/offer to accept that. I am not saying it can move the market but what I am saying is chances can be great that the market is moved.

Plenty on the interbank will accept bid/offers they don't even want and use it as liquidity or as balancing of their order book, if their book is imbalanced they will pass it on, probably with other orders they have collected during the morning or afternoon. So they will accept a bid of 10Mill, not really wanting it as it will not balance their book for the period, so they pass it on. That's why there are fixed fixing times during the day to balance these out, it is also the way 10 mill can easily become 70 mill or 100 mill.

I am just trying to show you that there is no fixed amount that moves a price as you don't have the total picture, you don't know the book of your market maker and its liq provider, so they can easily turn them a few times.
  • #329,312
  • Nov 19, 2010 12:58pm Nov 19, 2010 12:58pm
hmmm, close a long position and what does it do? Goes up!! Gotta be a strategy in there somewhere?
  • #329,313
  • Nov 19, 2010 12:58pm Nov 19, 2010 12:58pm
Quoting Scrat
yes you are way off. let me ask you this: do you know what happens in a trend, let's say an uptrend? what is smart money doing in an uptrend? and what are we suppose to do?

I see turning points and I see what I can take advantage of, what do I care as long as I am riding the trend and I use proper money management. THis is my arbitrage.

Again you are not being clear on your definition of a trend. I repeat I am not way off because your post was way too broad.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #329,314
  • Nov 19, 2010 12:59pm Nov 19, 2010 12:59pm
Quoting disegnosys
What about us the Forex retail market which is a small part of the forex market. How can the retail side really move the market, I would think not much at all? But I don't care as much because I just want to ride the wave and be on the right side with them taken my little pips in and out.

Peace and have a nice weekend.

Retail moves the market, especially if they are in line with the direction of the big boys, that's when the big boys hate us as it is momentum and volume that is joining their turns.
  • #329,315
  • Nov 19, 2010 1:00pm Nov 19, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting goods
I see turning points and I see what I can take advantage of, what do I care as long as I am riding the trend and I use proper money management. THis is my arbitrage.

Again you are not being clear on your definition of a trend. I repeat I am not way off because your post was way too broad.

Irrelevant of your definition of a trend, the big money sells in a rally and buys on drops, that's how the market works.

As a retailer you are always told to buy when price goes up and sell when price goes down, you are actually trading opposite to the real money. Think about that one over the weekend.

Another one for you to ponder is that price goes down not because of sellers, but because of buyers, as a matter of fact you don't even need a seller for price to drop.
  • #329,316
  • Nov 19, 2010 1:01pm Nov 19, 2010 1:01pm
just answer my question: what happens in an uptrend?

Quoting goods
I see turning points and I see what I can take advantage of, what do I care as long as I am riding the trend and I use proper money management. THis is my arbitrage.

Again you are not being clear on your definition of a trend. I repeat I am not way off because your post was way too broad.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #329,317
  • Nov 19, 2010 1:02pm Nov 19, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting cloggie
Plenty on the interbank will accept bid/offers they don't even want and use it as liquidity or as balancing of their order book, if their book is imbalanced they will pass it on, probably with other orders they have collected during the morning or afternoon. So they will accept a bid of 10Mill, not really wanting it as it will not balance their book for the period, so they pass it on. That's why there are fixed fixing times during the day to balance these out, it is also the way 10 mill can easily become 70 mill or 100 mill.

I am just trying to...
I am not arguing I agree with you, I understand order flow and I understand order transactions happening via different banks, I understand rising and declining market just by looking. I humbly say I dont know exactly where things are always going but I can take a trade based on what market tells me and use proper judgement that coincides what is successful for me.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #329,318
  • Nov 19, 2010 1:04pm Nov 19, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting Scrat
just answer my question: what happens in an uptrend?
I know what happens I know smart money takes profit as well as selling into the run. I know this occurs as opposite happens in bear run.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #329,319
  • Nov 19, 2010 1:05pm Nov 19, 2010 1:05pm
Quoting Scrat
yes you are way off. let me ask you this: do you know what happens in a trend, let's say an uptrend? what is smart money doing in an uptrend? and what are we suppose to do?
In an up trend:

Market Maker = wants to make money on order flow
Institutions = Buy which then become seller
Retail Trader = The fool who buys the higher price from Institutions.

Is that right?

LOL

Peace
  • #329,320
  • Nov 19, 2010 1:07pm Nov 19, 2010 1:07pm
Quoting Scrat
color coding: red candle = more bids; green candle = smart money buying.

just a quick note before i explain the chart: smart money sells into uptrends, and buy into downtrends... ALWAYS!
Smart money
sells The Rally with down trend
buy the Dips with Up trend

My chart
Weekly >>Up trend
Daily>> Consolidation
4H>> Down trend
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