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  • #329,221
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:25am Nov 19, 2010 10:25am
Quoting cloggie
I had the same problem, so just ignored the chart and described it instead. Sellers are still out there, despite the earlier profit taking. Let's see if we can get a nudge closer to the DP and 3611 (which was a biggie over the last few days)

Big money has no appetite yet to take this back up.
Cloggs? Who is the big money? LOL And how do you know what they are thinking?LOLOL
How do YOU know they have no appetite to take this back up? Have some kind of super duper indi over there? lol
  • #329,222
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:27am Nov 19, 2010 10:27am
Quoting gatorinla
taken off the weekly.. it gives a different perspective

on the monthly 3630 is a line in the sand. but we still got 11 days. week still has to finish its candle. its friday
no change.. fight is here.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #329,223
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:30am Nov 19, 2010 10:30am
Quoting PipChick
Cloggs? Who is the big money? LOL And how do you know what they are thinking?LOLOL

It is the big trading houses and HF's, one can tell where they are usually by how levels get defended.

A good analogy is a bouncing ball, if a ball hits a table from a height at a shallow angle you do not expect it to bounce back very high, same with price. If it does bounce back high of a shallow decent to the level you know the big boys are protecting that and using it as an opportunity to buy.

Once it approaches a level, picture "h" in the price, if it remains an "h" and does not form a "w" then you can expect the level to give and form the next "h", if it becomes a "w" then the big boys use it as an opportunity to load up.

Steep angle descends to levels that get stopped solidly are the major levels and both the buyers and sellers are at odds with each other, look how 3650 reacted today, look back at 3450 and other major ones and you can see how the big boys/real money plays them. The steep angle approaches are great for scalping the bounces of. You then need to judge the momentum of the bounce up and the selling of the rally to see what the big boys want, if it drops faster then it bounces, more sellers or buyers give up sooner, two distinct ways of looking at the same thing, price drops because there are more sellers, it also drops if the buyers stop buying, very distinct.
  • #329,224
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:30am Nov 19, 2010 10:30am
Quoting gatorinla
no change.. fight is here.
I thought it was 3575, but I guess that why I trade and you post every 2 mins...........
  • #329,225
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:32am Nov 19, 2010 10:32am
Thanks for the explanation cloggs. So basically s and r.

Quoting cloggie
It is the big trading houses and HF's, one can tell where they are usually by how levels get defended.

A good analogy is a bouncing ball, if a ball hits a table from a height at a shallow angle you do not expect it to bounce back very high, same with price. If it does bounce back high of a shallow decent to the level you know the big boys are protecting that and using it as an opportunity to buy.

Once it approaches a level, picture "h" in the price, if it remains an "h" and does not form a "w" then you can expect the level to give and form...
  • #329,226
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:32am Nov 19, 2010 10:32am
Quoting gatorinla
no change.. fight is here.
would be nice if it transforms in a shooting star(close @ 1.3620 today).. on your daily chart.
  • #329,227
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:33am Nov 19, 2010 10:33am
Daughter is here..have a nice weekend everyone!!
  • #329,228
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:34am Nov 19, 2010 10:34am
cat fight !
Quoting AmeriTrini
I thought it was 3575, but I guess that why I trade and you post every 2 mins...........
  • #329,229
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:34am Nov 19, 2010 10:34am
Quoting PipChick
Thanks for the explanation cloggs. So basically s and r.

Not entirely, SR's will have fakes and overshoots, the levels where either options are or the big money is are more solid and the bounces are more pronounced, carrying through on higher TF's unlike SR's. Big money levels do not always line up with SR's especially when option barriers are involved. IF they do line up they become all the more pronounced.
  • #329,230
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:36am Nov 19, 2010 10:36am
Quoting AmeriTrini
I thought it was 3575, but I guess that why I trade and you post every 2 mins...........

you trade every two min? constantly in a trade?
  • #329,231
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:36am Nov 19, 2010 10:36am
Quoting cloggie
Not entirely, SR's will have fakes and overshoots, the levels where either options are or the big money is are more solid and the bounces are more pronounced, carrying through on higher TF's unlike SR's. Big money levels do not always line up with SR's especially when option barriers are involved. IF they do line up they become all the more pronounced.

like 1.3660?

I sold around that and the moment I did the price shot up about 30 pips took out one of my stops and dropped hard again to hit the TP of my other sell position.

But I'm out, lost too much this week. I need to go down a notch and trade with 0.02 max now instead of 0.05.

I've now lost 15% of my account, which isn't good but not impossible to earn back and more.
  • #329,232
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:36am Nov 19, 2010 10:36am
Quoting mfoste1
you trade every two min? constantly in a trade?

Retail HFT.
  • #329,233
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:37am Nov 19, 2010 10:37am
Quoting PipChick
Daughter is here..have a nice weekend everyone!!

hey pip chick! enjoy the weather in sunny oh
  • #329,234
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:37am Nov 19, 2010 10:37am
Quoting reaperunique
like 1.3660? I sold around that and the moment I did the price shot up about 30 pips took out one of my stops and dropped hard again.

That's it. Never sell at major support, especially at a confluence of so much as 3630-3650 is. And it is late on Friday in the final week of proper trading for the year.

Not a play with a terrible high probability of success.
  • #329,235
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:37am Nov 19, 2010 10:37am
Quoting cloggie
Retail HFT.

  • #329,236
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:43am Nov 19, 2010 10:43am
Quoting cloggie
From a PA point of view, I don't mind 3650 being tested again as the opportunists will take their profit of that break from the top of the earlier profit taking, but I want the sellers to defend it as it now needs to become resistance.

Here we go, let's see if any more chickens want to jump ship. This test as resistance will be more erratic then the earlier tests were when it was support as we have less participants, we know that because they took their profit on that second rejection when it still was a support, so now it is becoming a possible SR with the associated fakes and tests.
  • #329,237
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:43am Nov 19, 2010 10:43am
Quoting AmeriTrini
I thought it was 3575, but I guess that why I trade and you post every 2 mins...........
u f u da... i posted monthly not weekly. thinking was your first mistake. opening you da mouth was the second. your maternal ancestor not flushing was a bigger mistake.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #329,238
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:45am Nov 19, 2010 10:45am
Quoting cloggie
Here we go, let's see if any more chickens want to jump ship.

yea earlier it certainly looked like there was a decent amount of buying around 3650, but now those dudes were taken out....lets see if they flipped.
  • #329,239
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:47am Nov 19, 2010 10:47am
Quoting mfoste1
yea earlier it certainly looked like there was a decent amount of buying around 3650, but now those dudes were taken out....lets see if they flipped.

That's exactly what I am looking for in judging the levels and prices, how many buyers and sellers do we have left, how badly do the earlier big boys still want this, they defended it for 3 hours, they are not going to give up now, not for a lousy 16 pip break that they fought over for so long.

It is just a matter of seeing if anymore sellers that missed the earlier opportunity to get out still want to get out or are happy now that the price has shown itself as not wanting to stop here and decide to hold their trades, if that happens we can see some of the earlier sellers loading up some more, as it has now clearly shown the direction. That gives them 2 goals, one their original short is protected and two they get to add at a price they know is not going to hold anyways so why not, easy money.
  • #329,240
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:51am Nov 19, 2010 10:51am
Quoting cloggie
It is the big trading houses and HF's, one can tell where they are usually by how levels get defended.

A good analogy is a bouncing ball, if a ball hits a table from a height at a shallow angle you do not expect it to bounce back very high, same with price. If it does bounce back high of a shallow decent to the level you know the big boys are protecting that and using it as an opportunity to buy.

Once it approaches a level, picture "h" in the price, if it remains an "h" and does not form a "w" then you can expect the level to give and...
Interesting explanation Cloggie.What TF would you look to check if an h or a w ? When I look at the 15 min around that period you mentioned I see an h but go down to 5 min and I see a w.Presumably the HTF takes priority as usual ?

Cheers

V
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